Meta can't afford its $600B love letter to Trump

Meta on Friday floated plans to invest $600 billion in US infrastructure and jobs by 2028 as part of a massive datacenter expansion. The lofty goal eclipses OpenAI's $500 billion Stargate initiative. But like its rival, Meta can't actually afford the infrastructure project CEO Mark Zuckerberg has promised President Donald …

[cyberdemon]

By the time all this is over

A trillion dollars might buy a loaf of bread

[vtcodger]

Re: By the time all this is over

A trillion dollars might buy a loaf of bread

Quite the contrary. if (when) this AI bubble pops, all these huge data centers will almost surely become stranded assets. And all the money spent to build them will be gone .. disappeared ... vanished. And the additional funds borrowed to build them will become bad debts -- most of them eventually written off at few or no cents on the dollar. There wont likely be much inflation in that environment.

[doublelayer]

Re: By the time all this is over

The difference between deflationary and inflationary economic disasters is often a factor of what the government or central bank does in response, and we don't know what they will do and they probably don't either. Partially, that's because they don't have much control either since they take a look at what's happening, guess what it's going to do, and try to take an action to make it less bad which has the chance to succeed or just roll over to more bad but in the other direction. Support either to the investors who are losing money on the bad debts or to individuals whose savings were partially invested with those investors could easily cause inflation, whereas no support could cause a worse deflation problem. Managing the level of support that is enough to prevent the crisis getting worse but not so much that inflation is caused is very difficult even if the people doing it were knowledgeable and trustworthy.

[[e-mail]]

Re: By the time all this is over

I think you are right about this, but it will also be true that the big players like Google, Meta, Microsoft, Open AI, etc will control a huge amount of cloud processing infrastructure. The investors will suffer but hey, that's bidniz.

[jonfr400]

I hope Meta goes bankrupt

I hope that Meta goes bankrupt because of this. Because they are a really bad company on more than one level.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: I hope Meta goes bankrupt

I hope that Meta goes bankrupt because of this. Because they are a really bad company on more than one level.

Yep. See Reuters-

https://www.reuters.com/investigations/meta-is-earning-fortune-deluge-fraudulent-ads-documents-show-2025-11-06/

Meta projected 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads for scams and banned goods, documents seen by Reuters show. And the social media giant internally estimates that its platforms show users 15 billion scam ads a day. Among its responses to suspected rogue marketers: charging them a premium for ads – and issuing reports on ’Scammiest Scammers.’ Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10% of its overall annual revenue – or $16 billion – from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show.

Nobody I know uses FacePalm any more, especially not the young who think it's about as hip & trendy as MySpace.

[kmorwath]

Re: I hope Meta goes bankrupt

Don't worry, they will plan to sell the debts to someone else - remember 2008?

Then they will ask for tapayers money because they became "too big too fail".

Today all these companies are more creative in "financial innovations" than in delivering innovative useful products.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Then they will ask for tapayers money

Trump will give a little in return for a HUUUUGGGGGGEEEEEE donation to his 'Trump 2028' election campaign which will be run from a coffin buried under that god awful ballroom... Then Don Jnr (who will be POTUS until Baron can take over for life) can claim tax exemptions for the WH because it is a cemetery just like at least one of his golf courses.ink

Think that I'm babbling? Just wait and see.

[hedgie]

Re: I hope Meta goes bankrupt

The thought of the AI bubble bursting, and those companies dying, AND Meta to collapse is just too much to wish for in this world.

[M.V. Lipvig]

Good luck investors

40 year bonds? I'll be shocked and amazed if that company is still in business in 5 years. The kids left for cooler pastures, the grandparents are dying off, and the droid running the place keeps spending billions trying to convince people to move into little life support beds and live in his virtual world.

[captain veg]

Re: Good luck investors

Hmm. Myspace, fiendsunrequited, bebo... looks like a short. Zuckerberg is 5'7".

-A.

[seven of five]

Re: Good luck investors

second life! Remember the hype?

[John Brown (no body)]

Re: Good luck investors

Came here to say the same thing. "History" ie the last few decades, is littered with the corpses and zombies of once great/large/valuable IT businesses.

A 40 year maturity date on a bond from meat id a risk I suspect few will take.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

"Promised"

This is the $500Bn where Zuck, caught on a hot mic, asked Trumo, was that the right number? I didn't know so made something up

I believe that this might not constitute a legally binding commitment

[DS999]

Re: "Promised"

None of it is legally binding. Neither the "commitments" from tech CEOs nor the backdoor deals Trump promises them. That's what happens when you elect a con man as president and a corrupt Supreme Court tells him that he's got complete immunity for anything he does as president.

[Fara82Light]

Re: "Promised"

We do not know any of the details of the agreements being made with members of the Trump administration by business leaders, with any one of those agreements having possible legal implications.

[Charlie Clark]

Re: "Promised"

Any listed company would have to provide such information to its shareholders.

[Fara82Light]

Re: "Promised"

Actually, no they do not.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: "Promised"

Trump will be gone by Jan 2029, hopefully neutered by Nov 2026.

This is just throwing the Orange Dog a ball.

[DS999]

Re: "Promised"

Trump will be gone by Jan 2029

We hope. I don't have 100% confidence that he won't make up some excuse to declare a national emergency and cancel the elections and the Supreme Court would either support him or deliberately drag their feet on ruling until it was past the date the elections were supposed to be held.

The best hope is that he croaks from whatever is fattening his cankles, requiring MRIs, additional "checkups", regular IVs that bruise his hand, make him constantly fall asleep during the day even during public appearances, and leaving him even more incoherent than he normally is.

[Someone Else]

Re: "Promised"

The best hope is that he croaks from whatever is fattening his cankles, requiring MRIs, additional "checkups", regular IVs that bruise his hand, make him constantly fall asleep during the day even during public appearances, and leaving him even more incoherent than he normally is.

In other words: Terminal tRumpism

[Burgha2]

Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

If all this money were actually to be spent, can the physical world actually supply materials to support that spend?

Just because your plan says it, doesn't make it happen. The worst thing about tech bros running the world is that their brains have been destroyed by being software people. The physical world has actual limits.

[Fara82Light]

Re: Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

Which is a sweeping generalisation without any basis. I bet they all have far deeper knowledge of how the world works than anyone who would make such a comment.

[ecofeco]

Re: Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

You really shouldn't slurp your Flavor Aid when talking. It's quite uncouth.

[Fara82Light]

Re: Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

I have the ability to think and analyse for myself. I do not rely on what is passed around the playground to form my opinions.

[Fara82Light]

Re: Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

I guess that one hit home, given that ecofeco was unable to form a response. :)

[Someone Else]

Re: Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

I guess that one hit home, given that ecofeco was unable to form a response. :)

Or...sometimes it is easier, better...and often wiser, just to not feed the trolls.

It's also quite possible that s/he had something important to do.

[doublelayer]

Re: Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

Datacenters are costly to build from a lot of perspectives, but running out of materials isn't really a problem. The materials needed to build the structures would be a rather small part of them because each building is so expensive, so the quantity is not that high. We spend more on building commercial or residential real estate than would be spent on the buildings. Other resources would be more constrained but mostly in a local sense. Datacenters use tons of water, and some of the places they want to put them don't have plans for how to get that much, but that's more a problem of local access and infrastructure cost than a lack of water altogether, and if that was the biggest issue, nothing prevents a datacenter from being more efficient with water; they don't because it's cheaper to waste it, but they easily could. Power is another big problem, and probably one they don't intend to fully solve, but a lot of the money they claim to be spending is on new power generation and this they could also achieve if they allocated enough of the money to it. The really expensive part is all the stuff they're putting into the datacenters, but materials isn't the reason. A top of the line GPU isn't expensive because of the raw materials, but the manufacturing and the intellectual work needed to design them. Running it is expensive because of all the power needed to run it and cool it.

If all the promised things were to be built, materials would not be the problem. There would be lots of problems, including these:

1. All the environmental consequences of building and powering these things.

2. The costs of rushing to solutions and therefore doing something they could have done well in a worse but faster way.

3. The lack of commercial reasons to have that much of it.

4. The fact that they don't age very well unless well-maintained, so they're not even very useful a couple decades from now when someone might want them.

And because they don't have all that money just sitting around, there are a lot more problems related to the finances.

[Claude Yeller]

Re: People to do the work?

I think the main constraint will be to get qualified people to build and run all these facilities, and the American Made hardware.

[John Brown (no body)]

Re: People to do the work?

One does wonder if they will end up being white elephants. Look at the size of useful computers before the transistor. Then look at the smaller transistor based ones compared to when ICs came along. It does make one wonder how quantum computing might change the landscape. And if it happens at anything close to the evolution from valves to transistors to IC's. (and yes, I'm fully aware that our current baby steps into quantum computing are still some way from any sort of super powerful general purpose computer!)

[David Hicklin]

Re: People to do the work?

> Then look at the smaller transistor based ones compared to when ICs came along

Which is now running into real world physical limitations, and it is getting harder and much more expensive to get the manufacturing tech to go any smaller - I think the transistors are just about as small as physics will allow them

[Strahd Ivarius]

Re: People to do the work?

Will a quantum computer run Doom?

Until it does, what it its purpose?

[Roland6]

Re: Have to have somewhere to spend all that money

>” If all this money were actually to be spent, can the physical world actually supply materials to support that spend?”

Well firstly, thanks to computers it’s just one’s and zeros within a computer, so no worries about paper supply.

Secondly, I suggest taking a look at HS2, it seems to have created a model which can hoover up money - I wonder how many millionaire toilet cleaners will be created from Meta’s spend…

[Like a badger]

If it goes ahead, yes the money can be spent, but ultimately additional debt increases the money supply and causes inflation. In the short term there will be and already is increasing unit costs for everything that goes into building a DC. Beyond that, the people who get the money spend it, but as you say there's no additional supply of anything that matches to these billions. As one of our sages notes above, at the end of this monumental folly, a loaf of bread will cost a trillion dollars. Maybe not quite, but the principal is entirely correct. Oh, and when the bubble bursts, it'll be you and me on the hook to bail out the banks, insurers and pension funds again.

I'd imagine Zuck is looking at Elmo's trillion dollar heist and thinking "fuck, why didn't I think of that? How can I make myself a quadrillionaire at the expense of Meta shareholders?"

[David Hicklin]

> but ultimately additional debt increases the money supply and causes inflation

But where does it come from? The banks (other then countries central ones) can't simply print more money, they in turn have to borrow it from somewhere else.

Which is fine until you do a 2008 and complete the circle

[blu3b3rry]

It's easy to make monetary "promises"

Especially so when you're doing that with everyone else's money.

Fuck these guys and their dressed-up Ponzi schemes.

[mark l 2]

The only reason Zuck is still in charge is because they legally can't get rid of him. He burned through billions trying to convince people that the metaverse was the next big thing, when it was clearly only ever going to be niche.

Then along comes 'AI' as the latest fad and no one outside of the tech industry even talks about VR anymore. But to want to spend over 6 times your yearly profit on building a datacentre for something that is clearly a bubble waiting to burst seems crazy even for Zuck.

[Brewster's Angle Grinder]

The trouble is the metaverse ended up being called Roblox. And Zuck was too late.

[Jellied Eel]

The trouble is the metaverse ended up being called Roblox. And Zuck was too late.

The trouble is the metaverse has ended up nothing like the one Neal Stepheson wrote about, waaay back in 1992 with Snow Crash. If it had, it could have been entertaining. But other aspects are coming to pass-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Crash

The remnants of government maintain authority only in isolated compounds, where they do tedious make-work that is, by and large, irrelevant to the society around them.

Possibly why the US government shutdown got so much attention. Governments can't tolerate the idea that the Internet and society in general can often route around the problem. Also rather disappointed that I can't make people listen to Reason..

[Tron]

Bonds which mature in 40 years.

If only Geocities had thought of that.

It'll be fun to see how many donors, er, 'investors' he can persuade to toss their cash into the data centre money pit for the greater glory of Meta - who will only need them until the bubble bursts. A couple of years should be enough. Enjoy your very expensive shed full of old silicon, chaps.

I double dare Meta to include in the small print: 'Investments can go up or down. LOL.'

[Fara82Light]

Value

Would it be a bad thing if Meta went bust? Would anyone here stop by the wayside if it did?

[sgp]

Re: Value

I would. It's dangerous to drive while bursting in laughter.

[Roland6]

Re: Value

Well it might be advisable to have an investment in counselling and therapy services, as if Meta goes bust there will be a lot of people waking up to discover their entire life’s archive of chats and photos have disappeared…

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Value

2 of my kids friends have just started graduate positions there and a couple of neighbours work at their warehouse in the next town so I am guessing they won't be too happy.

[Fara82Light]

Re: Value

Meta has warehouses?

[Blackjack]

Eh they probably will just string him along while he is still the president and invest less tbat a fourth of that.

Then cancel everything when he leaves office.

[Nematode]

"leaves office"? I thought he had vowed that Americans would never have to vote again. I wait to see the humongous fight with the US courts/judges on that one!

[Roland6]

The court fight will be just the first round. The real fight will be to get him out of the Whitehouse - particularly as we can expect idiots wearing horned fur hats rushing to Washington to defend him.

[Fara82Light]

If that was the case, why have the Democrats not already a start?

Is it not the case that too many Democrats have been tainted for the Biden-era party to take a stand?

[Claude Yeller]

Re: leaves office?

Let's first see whether he is still alive in 2028.

He had an "extra" brain MRI and "second annual" dementia tests. That does really sound like a super healthy almost octagenerian.

Listening to his word salads, his wandering around during state visits, and his memory lapses really give one confidence.

[Blackjack]

Eh, with his health issues, he is leaving one way or another.

[Fara82Light]

Have you not considered the possibility that he will be succeeded at some point by Barron Trump?

[Strahd Ivarius]

He just has to redirect all the great big nuclear warheads to target Democrat cities, and press the big beautiful red button, and voila!

No more USA, no more elections...

[Jellied Eel]

He just has to redirect all the great big nuclear warheads to target Democrat cities, and press the big beautiful red button, and voila!

Now there's an idea. Bit of a radical cure for TDS, but it might stop the losers frothing at the mouth.

No more USA, no more elections...

The Demorats lost the election and it was entirely their fault, despite the best efforts of the tech bros, and even fake news peddlers like the Bbc. Cali's prepping for the next election though with their gerrymandering proposition, but the DNC still doesn't seem closer to fielding a credible candidate for the next US election.

[Fara82Light]

That would be a risky play because no one knows who will succeed Trump. The typical response is far more subtle.

[Nematode]

How long to a 2008-level financial crash around the AI bubble?

[Roland6]

The 2008 crash will be nothing in comparison, the AI bubble bursting will most probably take out nations…

[Claude Yeller]

Re: AI bubble burst

"AI bubble bursting will most probably take out nations"

Who else than the USA have driven the bubble? The USA could indeed be taken out by this. But others?

In 2008, everybody, all over the world, were neck deep in junk bonds and junk mortgages. Are they also that deep into these AI junk?

China has a conservative approach to AI and are careful to keep it isolated from the US bubble. Others don't have that much invested in AI. Any "private" foreign investors pumping money in such politically sensitive industries in the US now would now the money would be lost or confiscated sometime.

After September's PR debacle with the Korean plant in Georgia, foreigners have undoubtedly taken a fresh look at any new and ongoing investments.

[Roland6]

Re: AI bubble burst

2008 nearly took out the UK…

Since the 1990s the UK economy has been overwhelmingly maintained by financial services, hence why 2008 was such a big issue in the UK.

Given the hype around AI and the UK governments grasping at straws, expect the UK to be doubly hit: firsty: by all those bit barn projects vapourising leaving the UK government holding building contracts that need paying and secondly by the tidal wave running through financial services as they discover that AAA rated AI investments are junk.

Expect other nations who have likewise swallowed the AI baloney and committed to vast expenditure to also feel the heat.

[Anonymous Coward]

I see your “$600 billion”

Here’s 10 bottle caps, an old comb and a stick of chewing gum.

And I raise you 3 pennies and a sock.

[[e-mail]]

It's okay...

Trump never delivers on his promises, why should people deliver on promises to him.

[Alistair]

There will be fallout.

The commitments being made by the tech billionaires to the Trump Regime are, in toto, unattainable. Between the AI 3 card monte game, Larry (et fils), Zilcherberg, there have been about $2.2T US committed to various bullshit enterprises. Furthermore, in the various Celebrity Presidential Parades about the planet, there are bout $4.4T to $6.8T US commitments to purchase *energy* (variously, crude, refined petroleum, LNG etc) over the next 5 years.

Taken individually any of these commitments is possible, but collectively they result in the US having 0 barrels of oil, 0 CM of natural gas and almost 0 electrical capacity for the people living, working and quite likely dying in the US.

The US economy is in free fall, and is likely already in a recession, to wit, the Fed actually DID lower the prime (admittedly only a quarter point) while there is very clearly more being spent (several TIMES more) by the entirety of the US than is coming in from the collective incomes of business, government, individuals and the financial groups.

Thus this "We will build it and they will come" bullshit is precisely bullshit.

[Mostly Irrelevant]

It would be hillarious if this was the thing that brought "Meta" down. Zuck has been tilting at windmills for years while his company becomes less and less relevant and buys up rivals to survive.

[JamesTGrant]

40years ago… mmm.

Wanna invest in bonds from Enron or MCI?

How about Intel?

GE?

Meta will stuff up Facebook and Instagram soon enough. They’ll struggle to get revenue from WhatsApp. That leaves selling customer data and being an ad broker without owning the shop window.

They are inextricably linked to Mark Z.

I doubt Meta will be around in 20years, and certainly not 40. I hope.

[[e-mail]]

It's Trump money, not real money.

Meta doesn't actually have to spend any real money here - they just need to announce that they are going to spend the money so that Trump can bask in 5 minutes of glory.

[steviebuk]

Orange hitler

Won't be there for ever. Why do they not want to be on the right side of history instead of bribing the corrupt nazi. At the end of it all, they all been seen as collaborators.

[Roj Blake]

Re: Orange hitler

It didn't seem to do BMW, VW, Hugo Boss, or BASF any harm.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Orange hitler

What about Ford?

[Anonymous Coward]

The Even Bigger Short

Meanwhile, various outlets are reporting that Michael Burry, of 'The Big Short' fame has started shorting AI stocks, including Palantir and NVIDIA, to the tune of over a billion dollars.

E.g. https://www.michael-burry.com/michael-burrys-portfolio/