Folks aren’t buying the PCs that US vendors stockpiled to dodge tariffs

Total PC shipments in the US will increase by just 2 percent this year, thanks to Trump's tariffs and little appetite from consumers for spending on "big-ticket" items, despite the looming end of Windows 10 support. Deliveries reaching US shores surged 15 percent in the first calendar quarter of 2025, as the channel stockpiled …

[Eye Know]

This isn't like Windows XP

Back when XP was retired it was a tired old OS with more holes than a block of Emmental. Windows 10 isn't in that situation. People know this. Sure there could be a widespread exploit found and enterprises know this but for everyone else I'm willing to make a bet Win10 will be around for a while longer than we saw XP past it's cut-off, despite the profit wishes of MS.

[abend0c4]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

I find an increasing proportion of friends and family have a PC that spends most of its time switched off - they're mostly using mobile phones and tablets for day-to-day stuff. Not much incentive to upgrade something that gets only occasional use.

[Rich 2]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

A good job MS managed to corner the mobile OS world then!

Oh, hang on…

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

"for everyone else I'm willing to make a bet Win10 will be around for a while longer"

Undoubtedly. People like my sister-in-law are still on W7.

[LBJsPNS]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

And likely still perfectly happy with it.

[LB45]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

<slowly raises hand>Well firewalled W7 machine still sitting on my desk seeing occasional use for 'reasons'.

Work provides a W11 Laptop and a personal 2nd hand laptop running Mint for the day to day stuff.

Agree with most casual stuff done on a tablet these days.

[Helcat]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

Co-worker mentioned a report that MS had lost 400 Million windows users over the last 3 years: Possibly people aren't keen on Win11 and are moving to other OS's, and possibly ditched the PC/Laptop in favour of a tablet or mobile, and the Windows phone (anyone remember that one?) got discontinued years ago.

Wonder if there's an uptake of tablets or mobiles to offset the drop in PC's.

Or people are just waiting to see if the tariffs get dropped. Same way that retail sales slump before a known sale starts (such as black Friday).

[Kimo]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

My (mostly Engineering) students tend to bring a tablet to class. Anythig that needs more power they can do on a lab computer.

[DS999]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

That report was flawed. It was based on Microsoft claiming 1.4 billion Windows users in 2021, and claiming "over 1 billion" more recently. Whether the number was stuck at 1.4 billion, dropped to 1.3 billion, or fell all the way to a billion a one, Microsoft would have the same incentive to quit publicizing the exact number. i.e. to hide that it stopped growing, to hide that it had a small regression, or to hide that it had a major regression.

It just doesn't seem likely at all that they lost 400 million Windows users in such a short time. Where did they go? Even if there had been zero PC sales in all that time there wouldn't be 400 million PCs that stopped working. We sure haven't seen a huge jump in Linux desktop users or Chromebook users, which are the only ways a working PC would go from Windows to non-Windows status.

If I had to bet I'd say the number has pretty much stagnated. As the remaining third world that has no internet comes online they do it with phones, and never use any PC, Windows or otherwise. Microsoft doesn't want analysts questioning "wait you mean the Windows userbase is the same as it was in 2021?" and knock their stock price (though it probably wouldn't, since they are seen as a cloud and AI play these days) So they're just going to say "over a billion" from now on.

Tim Cook occasionally updates on investor calls the size of Apple's installed base - 2.35 billion as of January (that's devices not individuals, so if someone has a Mac and an iPhone that counts as 2) and it is still growing. If it stops growing I expect he'd start saying something like "over 2 and a half billion" instead.

[Ropewash]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

So the golden arches represent both McDonalds and Microsoft.

"Over one billion served".

[CrazyOldCatMan]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

(that's devices not individuals, so if someone has a Mac and an iPhone that counts as 2)

[Looks round room]

So I count for 5 (or 6 - depending on whether an Apple watch counts) - two work Macs (Intel and Apple Silicon), one home Mac (as yet unkilled by MacKillerKitty), one work iPad, one home/work iPhone and one Apple watch..

[Adair]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

Perhaps MS should just see the writing on the wall and concentrate on extorting money out of businesses who are well and truly 'locked in', and just let the 'domestic user' go. The 'home PC' is rapidly becoming an historic artifact, except for those with real IT interests/needs and those sorts of users are just as likely to be using some other OS anyway. Apart from gamers, and even they have other options these days.

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

"The 'home PC' is rapidly becoming an historic artifact"

If you mean users are going over to phones or tablets that might be so for those with younger eyes. Eventually a bigger screen becomes essential.

[Tim99]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

As one of them (a cataract operation didn't go as well as I hoped) the larger screen can be solved without using Windows. In our retirement village we have a couple of locked-down Raspberry Pis for the residents to "go on the internet". I don't know enough about Android phones, but for an iPhone I can buy an adapter for <£70 that connects it to a TV or HDMI monitor. For emergency use when I was working, a small Bluetooth keyboard and mouse and a thin HDMI cable allowed me to get work done on my iPhone mini in a hotel room without bringing a computer.

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

"the larger screen can be solved without using Windows"

Of course it can. 17" laptop and Devuan works just fine.

However, you've just set me wondering. Your iPhone Mini idea works well in an hotel room where there's a TV. I'm thinking of a super-portable to take into archives where there wouldn't be that luxury but I need something to drive the USB document camera. I don't think my 15" laptop is much lighter than the 17" although that's what I used last week. But a lightweight monitor and a Pi might be a good combo... Where as that Aldi where somebody snagged a cheap monitor recently?

[JoeCool]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

I have a Samsung Tablet with their Dex software. It is very useable for exactly this case.

[Ace2]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

My teenager just casually announced a while back that she had ditched Windows (on the gaming PC she insisted on buying).

Apparently Proton is that good.

[trindflo]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

Is Proton the latest Windows emulator that run on Linux? I've only played with Wine, which worked moderately well

[Adair]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

Wikipedia is your friend, you should try it:

'Proton is a compatibility layer that allows Windows software (primarily video games) to run on Linux-based operating systems. Proton is developed by Valve in cooperation with developers from CodeWeavers. It is a collection of software and libraries combined with a patched version of Wine to improve performance and compatibility with Windows games. Proton is designed for integration into the Steam client as "Steam Play". It is officially distributed through the client, although third-party forks can be manually installed.'

[Roland6]

Re: This isn't like Windows XP

There are however similarities. Remember MS had already botched the update of XP with Vista, so users were more wary of upgrading something stable that worked with something that was seen as “an improved Vista”, MS then again botched the update of W7 with W8. With all the recent issues of Microsoft releasing patches and updates not fit for prime time, I suggest the market is beginning to wise up and be more aware of the enshittification.

[ChrisElvidge]

How to profit from Tariffs

1) Import stuff before tariffs implemented.

2) Keep stuff in stock - i.e. not on shelves.

3) After tariffs implemented, sell stuff at price including tariff.

[SundogUK]

Re: How to profit from Tariffs

Profit will depend on how long this takes. Having inventory sat around doing nothing costs money.

[ChrisMarshallNY]

Re: How to profit from Tariffs

And PCs age badly.

[JoeCool]

Re: How to profit from Tariffs

If you have a monopoly or other market barriers, yes. But in retail PCs that largely is not the case I think.

[Long John Silver]

Having explored Windows 10 within VMs on Linux, I find few virtues to extol compared to Windows 7, XP, and NT. Also, its messy arrangement for updates, and for security fixes, does not inspire confidence; a, seemingly frequent, requirement for rushed out 'fixes of fixes' is worrisome. Windows' degeneration into a marketing platform for Microsoft and its 'trusted partners' adds no gloss to its reputation. Also, its enforcement of diktat from Microsoft, at best allowing a period of 'stay of execution', is unpalatable; this bodes passage into a 'Big Brother' tool for authoritarian governments.

Windows 11, despite passable integration of Linux, is as distastefully garish as its immediate predecessors.

[HuBo]

Appointment with a Crash Orange is Announced

Yeah, as the chronicle has foretold, the topsy-turvy looking glass catastrophic nonsense that is Incubus Orange policy is leading straight to a right economic crash for folks in the US, with the $-USD now at a 4-year low vs the €-Euro, and 1-year low vs $-CAD, Japanese ¥-Yen, and Chinese ¥-Yuan ... all thanks to its nonstop tumble and fumble since Jan '25.

It should be great for the export of unprocessed natural resources ... but terrible for the import of manufactured goods -- or any import really, especially when coupled with skyrocketing import tariffs, like a self-imposed trade embargo.

Add to that the massive defunding of science and incarceration of inexpensive laborers in alligator island and you get a method for Making America Great Again that is madly reminiscent of how mountaintop removal is making the Appalachian great again ... soon there will be none! (imho, and chihuahuas)

[DS999]

Re: Appointment with a Crash Orange is Announced

Yep a weak dollar is not a good thing for an import dominated economy. Tariffs reduce the imports, but they also cause other countries to put up retaliatory tariffs which reduce exports despite the weak dollar making them cheaper for people buying with euros etc. If you add in talk about forcibly taking another country as a 51st state then you get the entire population pissed off and quit buying your products entirely. California's wine market is in big trouble because their Canada exports are double their exports to the whole rest of the world combined. Tennessee whiskey was pulled off the shelves in Canada, and even if it came back no one would buy it. At least not as long as Trump is in office, and maybe never as they'll have found alternatives by then.

Rick Wilson's book about Trump had the perfect title that sums him up, "Everything Trump Touches Dies".

[The Oncoming Scorn]

Re: Appointment with a Crash Orange is Announced

All the US booze (Icon) was apparently bought sale or return, seemed a safe bet, they just didn't allow for a POTUS that would kill their export business stone dead & then have it returned!

[Doctor Syntax]

It's all going terribly well.

[Anonymous Coward]

It's all going terribly well.

"In the most bigly and bestest way ever ! "

Hell ! What an absolute shit show !

[Anonymous Coward]

Very well

Given the orange moron is in charge, I’m amazed we’re all still alive at this point in time.

Wait, what’s that bright light outside…

[Ball boy]

Upgrade? Why?

Generally, the more things you do in the cloud, the less the platform you use matters. In a way, Redmond have made a rod for their own back: by encouraging more use of online resources, they've reduced the need to keep upgrading the local platform.

Unlike the moves from 16 to 32 bit or from 32 to 64, I also suspect there's far less pressure from software vendors to run the latest OS - unless those vendors that are looking to bolt AI into their apps. Even so, most will probably want to make it a subscription service with a backend running under their control (more vendor lock-in and, actually, it probably offers better results because they can use a half decent model) - no pressing need for Win11 on the client in that case.

All told, I imagine there will be a very long tail to Win10 usage in the home market.

[DS999]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

My mom's PC will always run 10. Even if it dies I'd probably replace it with something running 10 just to avoid her having to get used to something different.

She's behind a NAT and the only network facing apps she uses are Firefox and Thunderbird. Both will continue to be updated and supported on Windows 10 for many years to come (probably more years than she has left given that she's 87) so it really makes no difference what the underlying OS is as far as her PC's security. I could replace it with Linux if there was a window manager that was a perfect clone of Windows 10's UI, including the file manager for saving stuff and the printer dialog for printing stuff.

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

"probably more years than she has left given that she's 87"

I wish people would stop saying things like that.

[Zoopy]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

FWIW, I set my octogenarian mom up with Pop!_OS and (for remote support) Tailscale. It replaced her dead Windows 7. I also did a little tomfoolery to get Windows' FreeCell working on it.

The only tech support she's needed in the past 4(?) years is when her USB Wifi adapter was having problems.

I mention this in case you find, for whatever reason, that Windows 10 is no longer an option.

[Pelican Express]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

I think you over-worry. I have already made the experiment. Swapping Windows for Linux. For the users who never tinker with the system, all they care is where to click to use a few apps: browser, file navigator, sometimes the calculator. How to power off? No need, automatic sleep. Training time: 30 minutes max. These low tech users never complain.

For users who are more advanced. Who know windows registry edit, proficient with control panel, tweaking hardware, use utilities. These people are hard to convert. Even if they immediately understood how to use Linux after I setup the machine. They will reinstall Windows by themselves. Some even know how to Install pirate software and cracks they know where to find. For these cases, I gave up, not worth my time to explain further.

Then there is another case where people prefer to stick with Windows b/c they get used to a software. This could be a board game or an old local MS Office. This requires some works and learning to find a Linux substitute. Once done, they don't care if the machine is Linux or not.

Overall, for the non-tech users, if there is a geeky friend around to help for support, they have no problem to switch to Linux. Because the biggest hurdle is actually how to put Linux in their machine.

Without that help, they stick with Windows. Even though they know it could be unsafe. They just hope/think that in case of big security issue, this would happen to someone else.

[DS999]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

You wouldn't think it doesn't matter but she complained for months when her Windows 7 PC died and I bought her a Windows 10 PC to replace it. She doesn't go into settings so I didn't think it would matter, but little details like the printing dialog are different. She learned everything by rote, so if a pixel is out of place she notices it, and if things are moved around she has no idea how to proceed and has to be shown a dozen times before it sticks.

She's really smart - she can still do the NYT Sunday crossword in about 10 minutes, but her smarts are about language and history and all the places she's traveled. To say she's bad with technology is an understatement though!

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

"if there was a window manager that was a perfect clone of Windows 10's UI, including the file manager for saving stuff and the printer dialog for printing stuff."

There seems to be a cottage industry in W10-type styling for KDE: https://store.kde.org but I'm not sure anyone would want to emulate the Windows file manager that closely. For some reason it seems to display two similar - but not quite - lists of places for reasons I've never quite understood. However if she could accept something simpler KDE Dolphin might do. AFAICS print dialogs are not consistent between applications.

[JoeCool]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

This is exactly wrong.

Now that you are in the cloud, compatibility is based on protocol versions.

In order to "incentivize" migration all that MS needs to do is "upgrade" their server side protocols ( One drive, one note, Office 365, etc. ) then only offer patches for WIn 11.

Use that lock-in, baby,

[Ropewash]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

That would certainly make me happy. I'm tired of the system trying to re-enable cloud services I disabled for a reason.

[martinusher]

Re: Upgrade? Why?

The place I worked at had already started replacing individual desktops with small footprint lower power PCs. This is all most workers need because the PC is really is doing little more than being a graphical terminal with any application heavy lifting being done remotely.

Its not just the cost savings (although significant). It makes IT's job a whole lot easier when a good percentage of a company's systems don't need constant maintainanace.

[Kimo]

Not seling like hotcakes.

Unless it us a stack of three covered in butter and syrup, it does not sell like hotcakes.

[Tron]

How to sell your stockpile of PCs.

Put Windows 10 LTSC on it.

[John Brown (no body)]

Re: How to sell your stockpile of PCs.

I wonder what the real difference is between TPM 1 and 2 in terms of the physical chip on the motherboard, can one chip be replaced with another and would there be much of a market for after market "upgrades", at reasonable prices to make those Win10 computers Win11 compliant? I have no idea, but having done some HP laptop motherboard replacements, there's an option when "branding" the new board you can choose TPM 1 or 2 in the engineers config tool on some models.

[blu3b3rry]

Re: How to sell your stockpile of PCs.

I'm fairly sure it was possible to buy discrete TPM 2.0 modules for some motherboards. Asus springs to mind.

Under my desk is a little HP Elitedesk G2 desktop mini which after a BIOS update also supports TPM 2.0 - not bad given it's a 6th gen i5. Windows 11 installed from a standard iso without any modification needed.

[mirachu]

Re: How to sell your stockpile of PCs.

It still is possible. Also I have a Dell workstation that apparently has a TPM chip that can be upgraded with a firmware update.

[DavidLee]

Re: How to sell your stockpile of PCs.

Problem I'm running into is 4 out of 5 PCs in the house have 'unsupported processors' or so Windows claims. They are all running earlier version of Windows perfectly fine. Guess they will turn into virus spewing zombies some day I can't afford new PCs and they are all used regularly. First time I've run into such a hardware roadblock upgrading windows and I've been running this stuff since OS/2.

[hairydog]

Re: How to sell your stockpile of PCs.

Presumably to install windows 11.

Why? Even more spyware? An even worse UI?

Windows 10 seems pretty reliable and it works. I can't see any advantages to me to switch to 11.

I don't see any advantages to anyone else either - except Microsoft and hardware vendors.

[897241021271418289475167044396734464892349863592355648549963125148587659264921474689457046465304467]

Well, after finally getting around to buying some parts to make a new PC to locally host some of the smaller "AIs" (nVidia 3060 12GB + nVidia 1080Ti 11GB [which I already had], AMD 5060, Corsair 128GB DDR4, Gigabyte B550 Elite V2, 4TB Corsair 705 NVMe, 4TB Western Digital Blue NVMe, 6TB Western Digital Blue HD, Montech Air Max case and replacement quiet 140mm fans [the free included Montech ones are noisy], plus extra 140mm and 120mm quiet fans)... after having stopped at Windows 7 Pro for years (I didn't like the look of 8, 8.1, or 10. I still don't)... I think I won't have any choice but to ditch Windows completely (running old necessary old Windows programs in VMs in Linux), because Microsoft appear to have gone terminally insane.

[Doctor Syntax]

"Microsoft appear to have gone terminally insane."

That's a bit rich, considering your handle.

[Anonymous Coward]

Microsoft appear to have gone terminally insane.

GUI insane surely ?

[IGotOut]

2%?

That high?

Given the Big Billionaire Bill has just passed, expect people to have even less money than before....Except the 1%, who probably don't know how to use a computer anyway.

[ecofeco]

Re: 2%?

It really is this simple. The average person has no money.

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: 2%?

They probably intended to sell most of them to business users but I suppose they also have no money now.

[ecofeco]

Re: 2%?

Exactly. I know the entire industry in the region I was working just lost about a billion dollars in federal funding and were laying off people by about 100 per week. Still are.

That's a huge loss for anyone not Uber or any of the other currently favored billionaire robber barons.

[martinusher]

Re: 2%?

>Except the 1%, who probably don't know how to use a computer anyway.

They've got people for that......

[Blackjack]

Wanna bet they made the mistake to stock up on AI PCs?

[Anonymous Coward]

Convid

Same thing as convid. The UK went crazy on bicycles and dogs. Both went up in price and became scarce for a while. Back to work and there's overstock of bicycles and poor animals being dumped or left. A few bicycle outlets went to the wall. Think there's a term for it; tail of the whip or something, describing that the small slower swing of the handle results in a very severe action at the other end.

[blainehamilton]

Windows 10 will likely be the last popular desktop and laptop OS for Microsoft. I have 4 to 6 year old desktop and laptop replacements for myself and my mother to migrate to later this year which are business cheap castoffs. They fully support windows 11 if needed.

My employer ended the laptop and office workstation program and we do ALL work on Samsung Phones and have access to Samsung tablets with keyboards for any 'desktop work'. Even our products which consist of 50% of the world's ATM market and our sister company which makes 30% of the world's POS, kiosk and self checkout systems will likely NEVER be going windows 11.

The winds of change are blowing all while Microsoft stands idly with fingers in its ears, eyes closed and holding their breath until Blue in the face.

Windows is likely already dead, the replacement just hasn't fully supplanted it yet.

[Doctor Syntax]

Interesting. AIUI ATMs have used Windows in the past and various PoS terminals also do. So what's the future software platform for those? Android? Linux? BSD?

[Tron]

ATMs and POS.

PI or dedicated chip. You really don't need 99.9% of Windows for stuff like that. They used to run on DOS and were simply upgraded to follow the MS path.

[Roland6]

AI PCs…

> despite the fact that there is no killer app for these devices, they carry a premium price tag, and the industry can't even agree on a standard hardware specification.

Without some agreement on a standard hardware specification, there is little incentive for developers to build apps, and little opportunity for an app to become a killer.

In some respects, I’m reminded of the early days of graphics with multiple competing standards (CGA, Hercules, EGA, VGA, XGA, SVGA etc.) and the multi-decade situation with games requiring specific (proprietary) graphics cards.

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: AI PCs…

That is the industry standard - slug it out and the last man standing wins.

[gnwiii]

Portable devices are replacing PC's

Many users are making more use of phones and tablets for things they were doing in Windows 10.

[CA Dave]

Chromebooks?

Windows 11 updates have been notoriously buggy lately, and them being forced onto your laptop unless you disable the service(s) is contributing to people having this disdain. Who wants sus Recall and MS AI on top of it?

Are Chromebooks increasing in sales as a result? You don't need MS Office when you can use Docs or Sheets just fine for non-intensive needs. It's still a laptop that works just fine to get you on the Internet and still perform other web-based tasks for financial, research, and apparently a beta Linux mode for other power users.

[JLV]

Bullet dodged

Pheeew, good thing that these are products that conserve their value over time as they age and don't depreciate.

Fine wine, whiskey, art, PCs...

All things that benefit from being a little long in the tooth. Who wouldn't want a brand-new, year-old, full-price, PC? Especially ones sprinkled with mature, stable, AI pixie dust.

[steviesteveo]

Re: Bullet dodged

Future retro computing youtube channels are going to be spoiled by all the new old stock available