Atlas V glitch delays second Project Kuiper launch A hardware glitch on United Launch Alliance's (ULA) workhorse Atlas V rocket delayed the launch of the second batch of Project Kuiper satellites. The problem was identified while the rocket's Centaur upper stage was fueling. ULA boss Tory Bruno posted on BlueSky that the team was "working a temperature measurement warmer than …
Yeah that would be redundant given SpaceX's ongoing comprehensive experiments and previous studies on the subject. And just for the record I am a big fan of SpaceX and I hope to see a fully successful "Starship" mission sometime this year. Sooner rather than Boomer. For all the nice non-US and probably more than a few US people out there google Boomers and Sooners (Twin Territories/Oklahoma).
" I hope to see a fully successful "Starship" mission sometime this year."
They'll need to rebuild the test stand, sort out why the Block 2 Starships are all explody and my need to scrap a mess of currently built hardware to make room to build something that has a better chance of not going "boom".
They still need to get to the point where Starship is built out to the point where it's more than a test article and more of a mission capable craft. Getting one down from orbit and caught with the Chopsticks is going to be a very risky challenge. It isn't just one flavor of mission capability like other rockets. They need tankers, an orbital depot, a lunar lander and a Starlink dispenser. Of course, Elon will be working on a Mars craft instead.
The limit so far has be a shortage of satellites. If 1,600 turn up over then next year:
Amazon has booked 7 more Atlas launches (27 satellites each) bringing the total to 216. There are enough RD-180 engines in the US for 14 Atlases. Launching one per month is quite possible.
Amazon has booked 38 Vulcan launches (45 satellites each). Vulcan has demonstrated the ability to launch twice in the same year and has 14 launches scheduled* for the rest of this year - for other customers. I will add 45 for satellites for Vulcan.
Amazon has booked 18 Ariane 6 launches (35-40 satellites each). A6 launched twice last year and has four launches scheduled* for this year. One of them is for Kuiper! I will assume another Kuiper launch next year for and additional 75 satellites.
Amazon has booked some New Glenn launches (60-70 satellites each). NG has launched once this year and has six more launched scheduled* for this year. I will assume another 130 satellites for NG.
Amazon has booked 3 Falcon 9 launches (>=20 satellites each). I have only seen a date for one, but lets pretend all three are before July 2026 for another 60 satellites.
That is about 526 with only another 1000 and a bit to find.
Only two large US rockets have consistent track records. There are six Atlases reserved for Starliner. 162 satellites if Starliner quietly fades away. Fifty Falcons can launch that other 1000 satellites. There were 134 Falcon launches last year and will probably be about 170 this year. Adding another 50 is probably more likely than making up the difference with everything else combined.
With a generous donation to the Trump regime, Amazon could try launching on a Long March (busy with another constellation) or Soyuz (pay extra or your satellites will fall out of a window). India's GSLV and PSLV cannot carry many satellites or launch frequently. (Swallow your coffee...) SLS could theoretically shake Kuiper satellites into fragments and but Starship could do something similar more quickly, more often and for less money.
Meeting Kuiper's deadline is not physically impossible but is very unlikely. A license extension would be far more realistic.
* lies, damned lies and rocket launch schedules.
The UK-Euro internet satellites to be launched by Russia were seized just after the 2nd Russian invasion of Ukraine (Feb 2022). Nor did Russia refund the launch fees, which have to be paid in advance, The Satellite owners refused to agree to "last minute" Russian conditions after the Satellite delivered to the launch pad.
Make your own conclusions as to how sensible it is to deal with Russia. They've broken most agreements made since 1991. Their "memorandums" are less than useless.
I would be surprised if Bezos' Kuipir ever goes up on a Musk Falcon (or Starship) because they are competitors.
Spherical Cow,
Flocke Kroes already mentioned that Amazon have booked 2 Falcon flights for Kuiper. El Reg covered that story a while back - so it's already agreed. There's no reason to turn down their money. Until they've got their own reusable rocket the cost of launching at commercial prices is huge. And they'd have to buy a massive number of launches off you in order to get the constellation up there quickly. At which point you're making bank in your primary business - rather than using it to help you set up a secondary business.
To some extent, Starlink doesn't matter. You've got to run it, and keep it updated - but it was designed as a way of making money from the ability to launch huge numbers of small satellites - and so massively add to the economies of scale of your rocket business. If somebody else wants to pay you for all those launches - then why have the hassle or running your own satellite broadband? You could do a long-term deal with them. Of course, this isn't an option with Kuiper, as they've got their own reusable rocket to push - when they finally get it up-and-running for regular launches.
" Vulcan has demonstrated the ability to launch twice in the same year "
It's a new vehicle so things will need to shake out.
Space is really expensive. If you think going to the chemist costs money..............
Tooling up for production is a balancing act. Spending the money to tool up and have the space to build 50 rockets per year can require having 50 customers for those launches for the next 10 years to amortize the ramp-up costs. These big space littering campaigns want a s-ton of launches right now, but I'll bet that a few of these constellations won't be fully built out and the businesses fold with plenty of cancelled contracts. If the launch companies don't want to become collateral damage needing government bailouts, they can't spend money like Elon Musk. Boeing bet the company on the success of the 747 which led to some ulcers that made them more cautious about doing that again with a SST. If you are building some form of consumer electronics, chances are if technology changes, a lot of things in the factory can be reused to build the next popular product. That's not the case with rockets. The tooling and machinery can be very bespoke and nothing but scrap when the program ends. A giant factory that can output 50 rockets a year is too large for many other businesses so it's a white elephant as far as resale just like all of the vacant former Walmart stores in the US. A test site that can process enough engines to fit to the rockets aten't cheap. If there's a B.U.G. at the launch site, it can mean months of rehab to get it rebuilt which backs up launches 10 at a time.
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