Trump can bluster and bluff all he wants, but iPhone manufacturing isn't coming to the US

US President Donald Trump can huff, puff, and threaten to blow Tim Cook's house down with a 25 percent iPhone import tariff, but analysts say even that threat is unlikely to bring Apple's manufacturing home. In response to Trump's statement last week, analysts from Morgan Stanley published a research brief on Tuesday that …

[cjcox]

Lots of stuff, not just Apple

I think the idea is that in a "single term" you can bring back the industrial revolution from decades ago is false.

I think that diversifying supply chains and some "security" (high cost) items would a better focus. But, we'll see. Even if "focused", not sure if a single term does it.

Some of President Trump's strategies (even at his lightspeed pace) would be more realizable if "two back to back terms".

Anyway, it's a fun ride and do want to see if the President follows through on cutting my electric bill in half in his first year back. And, after his term, if we get the "polar opposite" (Democrat), no telling what will happen then. May need to redefine "fun".

[MiguelC]

Re: "want to see if the President follows through on cutting my electric bill in half"

Of course he will!

Until now he has a perfect score of kept promises: inflation ended, war in Ukraine ended, America is great again, there are no more swamps, etc.

For more on that, https://apnews.com/projects/trump-campaign-promise-tracker/

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: "want to see if the President follows through on cutting my electric bill in half"

In fact he has also kept his promise on egg prices, as long as you take the price of a egg fully cooked with beautiful cheap coal power.

[martinusher]

Re: Lots of stuff, not just Apple

Based on precedent -- what happened in previous administrations -- the most likely outcome is that there will be a lot of noise and a fair bit of thrashing around with nothing actually getting done except an explosion of debt and an overall decline in our capabilities. The government will change and the incoming administration will attempt to fix the resulting chaos with a greater or lesser degree of success. They will be lambasted because of deficits, employment policies and stuff -- in other words, failing to fix the problem overnight -- and so the pendulum will swing right back. "Rinse and Repeat".

The one time when things seemed to stabilize and get on a decent track -- we were building stuff, the current account deficit turned surplus etc.-- during the Clinton administration there was a media obsession with a 'little blue dress', a change of administration under less than ideal circumstances and a quick reversion to massive deficits, lax banking rules and so on. The result was a huge run up in asset prices (houses went from 'expensive' to 'unaffordable luxury items', for example)** and we ended up almost bankrupt.

So I'm not that optimistic about the present Administration. I think they're going to prove to be a total shambles, bringing new levels of corruption and lawlessness to politics while covering for the introduction of autocratic rule that will not only entrench this mess but squash any opposition to it.Arms dealers, speculators and gold toilet vendors will probably do very well, the rest of us not so much. Meanwhile the rest of the world will just carry on without us.

(**Actually it was just a de facto devaluation of the currency.)

[MachDiamond]

Re: Lots of stuff, not just Apple

"Anyway, it's a fun ride and do want to see if the President follows through on cutting my electric bill in half in his first year back."

That's an empty promise and should be seen as such. It's not as if the electricity company is making 200% profit and can halve costs to customers. In my last two bills, there were notifications of applications to raise rates with the public utilities commission. The only way to cut my bill down is to generate the power myself so I have been investing in small solar projects to run things such as the chest freezer and some of the HVAC. If I come across a small and cheap solar panel that will run my little hydroponics grow system, that will come unplugged as well since it barely breaks even. Lettuces are really cheap in the market. The only bonus is being able to snip off tonight's salad to have something maximally fresh. I also use it for speed starting basil and cilantro plants.

[hedgie]

Re: Lots of stuff, not just Apple

People in the next county over from me pay FAR less for power than I do. Of course, the big difference is that their provider is owned by the public, and the one I'm stuck with is a monopoly that keeps burning the state down by cutting corners so they can have big profits.

[John Brown (no body)]

Re: Lots of stuff, not just Apple

"their provider is owned by the public,"

That sounds like a COMMIE county over there. Don't expect that to last much longer in the current climate (Heh, two puns for the price of one! Suck on that "climate" deniers!)

[Ace2]

Remember when the pig-buggerers were all up in arms about the government “picking winners and losers”? I guess it’s ok when Dump does it.

[Anonymous Coward]

Not very accepting of equally valid, alternative lifestyles, today are we?

[ChrisElvidge]

Apple's new factory

I'll post it again: https://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/3168.html

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Apple's new factory

Tim Apple was always a big Blazing Saddles fan.

[phuzz]

Re: Apple's new factory

I was wondering when someone would come up with the "just build a fake factory and tell Donald it's real" plan, and it turns out someone's done an entire comic of it.

[chasil]

Re: Apple's new factory

I don't know if the last large-scale phone manufacturing facility was Google/Motorola in Texas...

https://abc13.com/motorola-texas-smartphone-factory/85795/

However, if Apple were to make phones in the U.S. that were a) easy to assemble, b) without glue, c) with a battery that the user is able to replace, with components that could otherwise be replaced (screen) after registering with Apple...

Well, I think many people would opt for a model more easily serviced, even if the aesthetics and features were not up to par with what Shenzen is able to produce.

There are people who want the very best. I am very happy to let them pay extra for Shenzen expertise.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Obvious solution

1, Apple buys Fox news

2, AppleNews announces iPhones made in USA

3, AppleNews announces people should vote for Tim Cook

[Gene Cash]

Re: Obvious solution

It's kinda sad. I sat here and thought about it. As much as I despise Apple, Tim Cook would be a better candidate than we've had (on both sides) in 25 years.

I'd vote for him, as it stands.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Obvious solution

What ever else you say about him, he's way, way, too smart to do that.

[Cynical Pie]

Re: Obvious solution

Smarter than the Donald? Surely not, he's the smartest smart man ever in the history of smart men

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Obvious solution

Sooner or later JDV “The Caddy” will say Tim Cooke was just a DEI Hire…

… despite him being one of the chief architects of Apple’s South East Asia/India trillion dollar manufacturing ecosystem.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Re: Obvious solution

>Tim Cook would be a better candidate

At this point Balmer would be better. In fact Clippy would be more presidential

[Brewster's Angle Grinder]

"If an Apple commitment followed the same timeline, the first US-built iPhone might not reach consumers until after President Trump leaves office,"

That's very optimistic. (I'm talking about King Donald leaving office in four years - not the iPhone timeline.) Florida Man is there till the devil calls in his marker.

[JimmyPage]

Surely the most obvious obstacle

Is the total lack of any stability in US government.

Without that, who would spend a dime on a return in 5 years ?

[DS999]

Apple's $500 billion pledge

Had nothing to do with "playing ball" with Trump. They announced a similar $430 billion investment plan in 2021 after Biden took office, and a $350 billion investment in 2017 when Trump took office.

I think they've figured out it is best to call out all the money they are planning to spend at the start of an administration so they're clear on how much Apple is contributing to the US economy and hope that means they'll look elsewhere when investigating antitrust issues. Note that $500 billion is over the next 4-5 years and includes ALL spending in the US, not just R&D or capital projects. It includes Tim Cook's salary, the salaries for Apple Store employees, and even the weekly invoice to the custodial company that empties the wastebaskets in their spaceship HQ building.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Apple's $500 billion pledge

Press release about the bigliest amount of investment ever ‘like no-one has seen before’, buy some land and bulldoze the grass/topsoil.

Job done .. and flog to Amazon for a WH after the next election.

Worked for Foxconn in Wisconsin during Trump 1.0.

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/12/nx-s1-5359422/what-wisconsins-foxconn-plant-can-tell-us-about-the-future-of-manufacturing-in-the-u-s

[Boris the Cockroach]

Not going to happen

The orange cockwomble can tweet away all he likes.

But it will take way too long to build an iPhone factory, then train 2000 people or so to work it , plus import the suicide nets (and the various other machinery needed)

Its all a show for his fox viewers.... but saying that... if you unbox the iphones in the shipping ports, and then rebox them, you can put 'boxed in the USA' on them and that will be enough to swoon the maga crowd

[tfewster]

Re: Not going to happen

Morgan Stanley said '100,000 people "skilled in highly precise tooling equipment" '

I don't think the Indians or Chinese workers are born with those skills either, training is a constant factor.

[MachDiamond]

Re: Not going to happen

"I don't think the Indians or Chinese workers are born with those skills either, training is a constant factor."

True. If Apple is only one of a very few companies hiring/training for those skills in the US, there still won't be that many people ready to do those jobs. A couple of my "girls" cycled in/out of my manufacturing company as they added to their family and it was tough to get new people in and up to speed to fill the gap. I imagine that it would be even more difficult today as I wouldn't allow workers to be fiddling with their phones while on the clock.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Not going to happen

And Foxconn sure as hell don't!

[UnknownUnknown]

Re: Not going to happen

Will retraining the scanner firing and blue tabard wearing Walmart Curbside cart pushers work ??

They get paid about 4-5x what the average iPhone factory working in India/China gets.

[John Brown (no body)]

Re: Not going to happen

"They get paid about 4-5x what the average iPhone factory working in India/China gets."

But do they? Many of those Walmart staff are on food stamps because they can't earn a living wage. Is it the same for Foxconn workers in China? I don't know, but it's something to consider when making comparisons like that. How far do the wages go in terms of earning a living, not just a like for like $$ comparison, which is meaningless.

[AIBailey]

Re: Not going to happen

They could even ship the completed PCB's, the case halves with the screen already installed, and the batteries as seperate parts, pay someone in the US minimum wage to snap it all together, and hey presto, you've earned an "Assembled in the USA" sticker. Everyone wins.

At least until you look behind the curtain and realise that the levers are still being pulled over in China.

[Anonymous Coward]

increase prices on iPhones by only four to six percent globally to keep profits up

So still cowering and unable to let the US see the real cost of the tariffs themselves, but spread the pain worldwide?

Will the Apple Stores remember to itemise the receipts properly: you have just paid x to Apple's profits, y in your nation's sales tax to help fund your own government - and z to directly help fund Trump's government and prevent your US sales dropping any further?

[Mitoo Bobsworth]

But surely, Apples are a grocery.

I mean, if we're talking 'stable genie arse' logic here.

[PB90210]

Re: But surely, Apples are a grocery.

He has already had a go at Walmart to "suck it up" because they are insisting on passing on the extra cost to the consumer...

[John Brown (no body)]

Re: But surely, Apples are a grocery.

Trumps concept of "groceries" seems to limited to the products available over the counter (or, more likely, from the drive through he sends his flunkies too) at his local MacDonalds.

[Anonymous Coward]

Better idea

Like Canada and Greenland, just take over China and India.

Made in the USA stickers on EVERYTHING!

Winning.

[herman]

Re: Better idea

Just rename Hong Kong to USA. Then everything can be made in USA again.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Re: Better idea

Aren't all iPhones 'sold' in Ireland?

And Dublin is the 6th New York borough

So all iPhones are American

[Anonymous Coward]

Build a Wall ...

An old joke from East Germany (DDR).

[scottro]

Let's see him do one single freakin' thing to help the non-billionaires. So far he's done nothing but try to get revenge against those who were doing their jobs by trying to control his stupidity last time.

And he won the vote. Man, we really are a nation of complete morons. Oh and unlawfully deported lots of people. He's an incompetent idiot who hires other incompetent idiots. Kennedy, Noem--anyone watch her try to define habeas corpus as something giving the president the right to deport people.

And lots of Trumptards still think he's doing a good job.

[Cruachan]

Watching Noem would have been hilarious if you weren't aware of what her job is supposed to be, but she seems to be proud of the derogatory nickname of "ICE Barbie" and happy to pose for photo ops.

What worries me and continues to worry me is that despite the utter shitshow in the US support for Reform still seems to be growing in the UK, Farage only this week announced some very GOP-like policies about encouraging women to have more babies.

[David Hicklin]

> Reform still seems to be growing in the UK

Thankfully we still have a few more years of local elections before the next General one for Reform to be given enough rope to hang themselves.

I do feel sorry for those who will to have to suffer for enduring this.

[John Brown (no body)]

Yes, the great Reform experiment is now happening in a few large county Councils. They just fired the "flood committee" in Lincolnshire. Let's see how that idea floats this Autumn, Winter and next Spring in a county that has significant land are below sea level, eh?

[nobody who matters]

Not just that, but they have given the Environment Committee the responsibility for flooding - we all know that there is a monumental conflict of interest between the needs of the environment and the needs of flood prevention. Completely clueless.

All because they promised to cut out wasted expenditure; of which there is little to none in Lincolnshire because the county council has been expected to run the second largest and one of the most sparsely populated county in England with a Government grant allocation based mainly on poulation rather than area covered - LCC had already cut out anything wasteful to manage to provide basic services. The only way Reform are going to cut expenditure is by cutting back those already stretched services. It's straight out of the Trump/Musk/DOGE script :(

[O'Reg Inalsin]

Made partially in Mexico?

In 2024, the value of U.S. goods exports to Mexico were $334.0 billion, while imports from Mexico totaled $505.9 billion. That means for for every $1 spent by the US in Mexico, 66 cents comes back. The figure for China is 10 cents, and similarly paltry number of India. Labor rates in Mexico are also %80 of those in China. What's missing is that that in China they are capable of of handling all the management, product design, and everything up to and including replacing your company with a competitor that you paid to train.

[Old Man Ted]

The size of the US market is minuscule and shrinking fast.

The world growth rates in the emerging worlds non-American /Chinese dominated economies, these new hungry non-ideological based manufacturing entries. Be they new or old resurrected players in the world trade game, they will take over from countries who are rule by younger hungry leaders.

History is littered with ex super-powers who squander their wealth and ended up with a ruling elite who squandered their nations wealth on their own pleasures at the publics coast.