back to article Soviet probe from 1972 set to return to Earth ... in May 2025

A Soviet probe launched more than half a century ago is due to return to Earth in the next week or two, and there's every chance that the vehicle will make it all the way to our planet's surface. Venera-8 Descent Module A Venera-8 descent module (click to enlarge) Source: NASA archive "You wouldn't want it bashing you on …

  1. Korev Silver badge
    Alien

    The good news is that the probe is inert – it has no nuclear material to worry about. The bad news is that it weighs almost 500 kg and could be travelling at around 240 km/h (150 mph) when it hits, according to Dutch lecturer on space situational awareness Dr Marco Langbroek. Exactly where the probe will come down is unclear; Langbroek wrote that current modelling puts it anywhere between latitude 52 N and 52 S. As the reentry nears, the estimates will become more refined.

    Interestingly, Delft, where his university is, just fits in this area. I wonder if he's off to his underground lair?

    1. elsergiovolador Silver badge

      The best time to start a new suicide cult in the campus is now. The magic seed from space is coming.

    2. Sorry that handle is already taken. Silver badge

      I can't help thinking it'll only be doing as little as 240 km/h if its parachute deploys.

      1. AVR Silver badge

        Apparently it's predicted to do that without the parachute. The parachute seems to have deployed already and will burn up rather than be any use.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      I wonder if he's off to his underground lair?

      Although I'm sure it's very decorative, building a University of Delft was perhaps not the wisest choice, especially if your research is impactful.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        I call Bull!

    4. Gene Cash Silver badge

      > Interestingly, Delft, where his university is, just fits in this area. I wonder if he's off to his underground lair?

      Half the planet fits in this area. I don't think he's worrying.

    5. DS999 Silver badge

      Probably something like 98% of world population lives between 52N and 52S so if it is looking to hit people it is aimed in the right place.

      1. Andrew Scott Bronze badge

        with luck it will be putin down where it came from.

    6. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      The Dutch mostly have underwater lairs.

  2. elsergiovolador Silver badge

    The Terminal

    I can imagine it being stuck for the rest of days in bureaucratic limbo given the country it comes from no longer exists.

  3. Paul Herber Silver badge

    CCCP

    Copyright Chinese Communist Party.

    1. elsergiovolador Silver badge

      It's actually Communist Party of China (CPC)

      1. Paul Herber Silver badge

        Well, it could be, if you don't have a sense of humour ...

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Found the wumao.

        Did you get your 50 cents for that comment, shill?

      3. vogon00

        CPC? How long have Farnell been allowing communist electronics trading under their capitalist website?

      4. LBJsPNS Silver badge

        Ackshually, that's Communist Party of China, LLC.

  4. Yet Another Hierachial Anonynmous Coward

    I'm not a statistician, but....

    "The chances of it striking a person are vanishingly small and in the order of one in several thousand. But not zero."

    "One in several thousand" sounds pretty scary, bearing in mind there are 7 billion or so of us crawling around planet earth. In fact there are more than several thousand people in my town..... Does that mean that a few of my near neighbours are about to get bonked on the head?

    Come on El Reg, please be more accurate in your STEM reporting. It is why you exist, and why we come here after all.

    1. This post has been deleted by its author

    2. Paul Herber Silver badge

      Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

      After a quick analysis I have determined the correct units are Welsh apatosaurs per Belgian swimming pool cubed.

      1. VicMortimer Silver badge

        Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

        What's that in Freedom Units? (In this case, that's probably going to be in Freedom Fries per Rhode Island.)

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          What's that in Freedom Units?

          A Brexit times a Farage to the minus free?

    3. Gene Cash Silver badge

      Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

      Half the planet fits in that belt, and it's going to hit somewhere in there, is all it's saying.

      The best money will be on it splashing somewhere in the ocean since there's more ocean than land.

      There's a good chance it will float however, if it does hit ocean.

      1. David Hicklin Silver badge

        Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

        > There's a good chance it will float however, if it does hit ocean.

        At that speed the water will behave more like a solid than a liquid

        1. David 132 Silver badge

          Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

          At that speed, any person it hits will behave more like a liquid than a solid.

    4. Ian Johnston Silver badge

      Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

      If depends whether they the mean that the chances of it hitting anyone at all or anyone in particular are one in several thousand. I presume the former.

    5. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

      Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

      ...and billions of people around the world buy lottery tickets in the hope of getting rich based on far, far worse odds :-)

    6. jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid Silver badge

      Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

      One in several thousand might be the probably of it striking _a_ person (ie any person, not one person in particular). But that's not the same as the probably of it hitting any one specific person.

      Or to put it another way, with some huge simplifications: if the probability of it hitting a person is 1 in several thousand and there are 7bn in the potential firing line, the chance of it hitting specifically you (or any other specific individual) would be 1 in (several thousand X 7bn). ie your personal chance of being hit is the chance of it hitting any person AND any person randomly selected being you.

  5. Peter Prof Fox

    Oh noes!

    If only President Trump could DO SOMETHING! Millions of American lives could be saved.

    1. Paul Herber Silver badge

      Re: Oh noes!

      He could form a band, Supertrump. Crisis? What crisis?

      "Ain't Nobody but Me" - all about you know who.

      1. Graham Cobb

        Re: Oh noes!

        Am I the only person who thinks the 3 downvoters have never heard of either the band or the album but are just paid to downvote any apparent criticism of the orange one?

        1. sanmigueelbeer Silver badge

          Re: Oh noes!

          The latter.

        2. Casca Silver badge

          Re: Oh noes!

          Its the standard three downvotes for anything critical of the orange one

    2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Re: Oh noes!

      If only President Trump could DO SOMETHING! Millions of American lives could be saved.

      What, like offer to catch it? I'd pay to see that...

      1. Outski

        Re: Oh noes!

        Using Rusty?

    3. abend0c4 Silver badge

      Re: Oh noes!

      He's already saved two thirds of the US population from death by "fentanol", I gather. Can't the guy have a day off?

      1. HuBo Silver badge
        Alien

        Re: Oh noes!

        Yeah, if I heard Pam Bondi right on this YT, he's saved 258 million kids' lives everyday since taking office ... it's like almost 26 billion now, and it's really exceptional! And why isn't the whole World media reporting this continuously??? He sure deserves a couple of birthday parades, with lotsa $2T savings DOGE brownshirt wankers, and associated asscrack-caliper comptrolled chihuahuas, imho!

        1. jake Silver badge

          Re: Oh noes!

          I've discovered that anything with puppy-killer Barbie's name attached to it is well worth ignoring.

          1. jake Silver badge

            Re: Oh noes!

            Oops. Wrong Barbie.

            The Barbies the Convicted Criminal in Chief surrounds himself with are beginning to all run together.

            1. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: Oh noes!

              > Barbies ... are beginning to all run together

              Acetone will have that effect - keep them away from the nail polish remover. Breathing too much of that in does cause lightheadedness, makes you easily distracted, disjointed speech, confusing events in the past...

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Oh noes!

        He's already saved two thirds of the US population from death by "fentanol", I gather. Can't the guy have a day off?

        No! now he needs to save all those who are being killed by firearms. He will need to put special tariffs on all those countries exporting firearms to the US so as to protect the US arms industry.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Oh noes!

          True, you need to realize that Americans can ONLY be killed by American guns!!! It is not acceptable for Americans to be killed by NON American guns. It is not fair on the American gun industry.

      3. notyetanotherid

        Re: Oh noes!

        > He's already saved two thirds of the US population from death by "fentanol", I gather. Can't the guy have a day off?

        ... and don't forget the 200 trade deals that he's negotiated: https://time.com/7280114/donald-trump-2025-interview-transcript/

    4. Christoph

      Re: Oh noes!

      Don't give him ideas! Canada, Greenland, Panama, Gaza, Vatican City, and next Venus.

      1. Paul Herber Silver badge

        Re: Oh noes!

        'Venus'

        He's got it, yeah baby he's got ...

  6. Tron Silver badge

    If it lands on Trump...

    ...we will all have to start going to church.

    1. A Non e-mouse Silver badge
      Coat

      Re: If it lands on Trump...

      ..of the poisoned mind?

      1. Throatwarbler Mangrove Silver badge
        Pint

        Re: If it lands on Trump...

        Ah, I see you are also a man of Culture (Club).

        1. David 132 Silver badge
          Happy

          Re: If it lands on Trump...

          Bow down, Mister!

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: If it lands on Trump...

      Trump seems to have raised the odds of a direct hit.

      1. TRT Silver badge

        Re: If it lands on Trump...

        It'll be too expensive to make a decent film of it, though.

    3. MrReynolds2U
      Pint

      Re: If it lands on Trump...

      Definitely wins comment of the week

  7. trevorde Silver badge

    Message from Venera-8 descent module

    Should I target Trump or Putin?

    1. Throatwarbler Mangrove Silver badge
      Thumb Up

      Re: Message from Venera-8 descent module

      If it breaks in two and manages to hit both, I will really have to reconsider this atheism thing.

    2. Ze

      Thoughts from Venera-8 descent module

      Why oh why can't they be together so I can get them both.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Message from Venera-8 descent module

      Should I target Trump or Putin?

      I checked. Moscow is above 55° N so outside the ±52° target zone but Washington DC is 39° N and Florida lower so it's the Orange eejit and hopefully his DoGEy kennel master with the various other blots on the copybook of humanity all kneeling around kissing the eejit's arse at impact.

      Altogether appropriate if that sleeze were to be knocked off his perch by a Veneral affliction.

    4. renniks

      Re: Message from Venera-8 descent module

      Try to get Trump and Vance - that'd be a much better result!

  8. Sparkus

    I predict

    ....the Glorious Return of Nikita Khrushchev having been sustained in frozen stasis these past 50 years.

    His reported death in 1971 was but a distraction.

    1. Ian Johnston Silver badge

      Re: I predict

      But how is Mr Bigglesworthski?

    2. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: I predict

      What are Clint Eastwood and Tommy Lee Jones doing at the moment? I believe they have relevant experience with old Soviet space equipment with secret payloads.

      1. KarMann Silver badge
        Coat

        Re: I predict

        I was not ready for that.

  9. frankyunderwood123

    The anti-lottery

    I have a new comparison when discussing the idiotic idea of playing the lottery and the likelihood of winning the top prize.

    My usual is it’s akin to being struck by lightning twice at the same place.

    I shall now add getting hit by an old Russian satellite on the head.

    When it comes to the euro millions lottery it may as well be both at the same time along with the second coming of Jesus Christ

    The anti lottery is instead being struck by the bad luck

    1. sitta_europea Silver badge

      Re: The anti-lottery

      "I have a new comparison when discussing the idiotic idea of playing the lottery ..."

      At work, years ago, the usual chaotic effort to pick the week's lottery numbers was in progress.

      The idea was a different person would choose the numbers each week.

      For some unknown reason that week they asked me to choose the numbers.

      Not knowing much about the lottery, but more than most about numbers, I wrote down

      1234567

      on the sheet of paper and handed it over.

      "Well they're not going to win!"

      "I know", I said, "but it's obvious they're not going to win and they have the same chance as any other numbers you might choose".

      The sales manager was flabberghasted. "Do you really believe that?", he said.

      "I don't have to believe it. I can prove it." I said.

      Nevertheless they wouldn't use my numbers and they never asked me again.

      1. Ian Johnston Silver badge

        Re: The anti-lottery

        1234567 has one of the lowest expected returns of any set of lottery numbers and it's therefore a terrible choice.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: The anti-lottery

        "I don't have to believe it. I can prove it." I said.

        Might be a brave claim.

        Reading a reasonably introductory text on (mathematical) statistics a while ago I was surprised how many footnotes referred to fairly deep results from analysis and a few yet unproven conjectures.

        Unfortunately even fairly commonsense arguments generally fail through the likes of sales (indeed all) managers being unable follow any form of deductive reasoning (certainly any not involving the mass of ducks.)

        You: "You accept that drawing a numbered ball from a pool of 40 (say) any particular number 1,2,3,.... has an equal chance of being drawn?"

        SM: "Yes it's obvious. 39 to 1 against."

        You: "So if I specify four numbers in advance - say 11,23,27,38 - they should have the same likelihood of being drawn as any other four numbers?"

        SM: "Yes. Obviously."

        You: "So if I specify 1,2,3,4 I should have an equal chance as any other four numbers?"

        SM: "No way! Those numbers would never come up. Just doesn't happen."

        I assume part of the reason behind this irrational belief is that the odds any particular six numbers in a 6 from 45 lottery (to use a local example) being drawn† in even decades of weekly draws are increadibly unlikely.

        So a sort of confirmation bias 1,2,3,4,5,6 have never come up "so they must be" much more unlikely than 1,4,20,36,37,39 (courtesy of the local Lotto site's autofill) which unremarked and unremarkably haven't come up either.

        More likely magical thinking that Fortuna like the unnamed Emerald Eyed goddess of Discworld does play favourites.

        45C6 = 45!/(6!39!) ~ 8 × 106 even after the 500 draws the odds are still rather low [P+(1-P)P+(1-P)2P+...+(1-P)499P] where P ~ 0.123 × 10-6

        ‡ a red flag that you arguing with a fool. And No.

      3. Malcolm Weir Silver badge

        Re: The anti-lottery

        Oddly enough, those who smugly claim that only those with a poor understanding of math(s) play lotteries are frequently themselves wrong:

        If the odds of being the single winner are, say, 1 in 100,000,000, and the ticket price is $1, then if the jackpot is greater than $100,000,000 your expected winnings will be (jackpot) * (probability of winning) which exceeds the stake amount, so it's worth playing.

        (of course, the Game Theory arithmetic is much more complicated in the real world, because of lesser prizes and greater odds, and the number of tickets sold influencing the probability of you being a single winner, and so on, but at some point the game is worth playing...)

        1. David Hicklin Silver badge

          Re: The anti-lottery

          > single winner are, say, 1 in 100,000,000, and the ticket price is $1, then if the jackpot is greater than $100,000,000

          I remember reading the tale of a group that tried to get every number in a lottery (America I think) in order to guarantee a win, and the crazy lengths they went to to do it. I the end they missed some numbers but still won, not sure what would have happened if they had to share the prize!

          1. Dom 3

            Re: The anti-lottery

            https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/how-a-secret-syndicate-managed-to-buy-the-lotto/35981173.html

        2. Malcolm Weir Silver badge

          Re: The anti-lottery

          Five down votes? Sorry, guys, the math still maths.

        3. HorseflySteve Bronze badge

          Re: The anti-lottery

          Except the jackpot won't be $100,000,000 as the main reason for running a lottery is usually to enrich the people running it and to raise some money for charities. There also the cost of the technology to operate it th consider.

          When the UK National Lottery was first introduced, I used to play occasionally just for fun as it was only £1 and was run once a week.

          Then the Communications Director of Camelot, who had the contract to run it, was revealed to have stated that he couldn'ts live on his £250,000 p/a salary and wanted it raising to £500,000 p/a. Such was the public outcry that he resigned and wasn't replaced which implies that he did nothing significant to earn the £250,000 annual salary anyway.

          I've never played it again.

  10. Antony Shepherd

    Well at least it's not a million to one chance

    Because if Terry Pratchett taught me anything it was that million to one chances happen nine times out of ten.

    1. Paul Crawford Silver badge

      Re: Well at least it's not a million to one chance

      Ah! That is why Nickleback wanted a swimming pool big enough for "ten plus me"!

    2. David 132 Silver badge
      Alien

      Re: Well at least it's not a million to one chance

      But Ogilvy the astronomer has assured me we are in no danger. “The chances of anything coming from Mars the 206 x 9,800 km orbit are a million-to-one”, he said…

  11. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Whooosh, crash!

    Hi!

    What a journey.

    Venus sure seems a lot nicer than I was told.

    Take me to your leader.

  12. Grunchy Silver badge

    I’d laugh if it crashes into the Kremlin! :)

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      I’m hooooooome!

    2. HorseflySteve Bronze badge

      Too far north

      According to Wikipedia, the Moscow Kremlin is located at 55°45′6″N 37°37′4″E, so it's out of range.

      The White House, Palace of Westminster and my house, however...

      1. Richard 12 Silver badge

        Re: Too far north

        Palace of Westminster is right on the edge, so highly unlikely.

        White House is far more likely.

        My house (like nearly all the UK) has zero chance, so I'll be watching the fireworks!

        1. HorseflySteve Bronze badge

          Re: Too far north

          My house is further south than the Palace of Westminster but also a very much smaller target so, yes, highly unlikely but still a non-zero probability.

          This is one lottery I don't want to win!

        2. jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid Silver badge

          Re: Too far north

          "Palace of Westminster is right on the edge, so highly unlikely"

          I'm not sure that's right - to say that locations right on the edge are less likely. The range of latitudes given will be due to the object having a 52 degree orbital inclination, not because it's going round the equator and will drift off to the side randomly (with perhaps a normal distribution of the cross-track error) on impact. Over the long term, a non-synchronous orbit will spend an equal amount of time over every point on earth bound by the upper and lower latitudes equal to the orbit's inclination. Unless you have it in a synchronous orbit, which you would only do if you specifically wanted to revisit certain tracks on the earth. Given this probe was destined for Venus, I very much doubt it was in an earth synchronous orbit.

    3. Casca Silver badge

      Its a CCCP plot to take out the White house. They didnt take into account that CCCP doesnt exist anymore and that the current inhabitant of the White house is a friend of russia. Whopsie

  13. Pascal Monett Silver badge

    "It is possible the heat shield will have failed after spending so long in orbit"

    Hmm. Isn't a heat shield just a slab of metal ?

    I know that being bombarded by the Sun's full radiative fury is certainly not a good thing, but isn't that probe still inside the Earth's magnetosphere ? That should protect a slab of metal from the worst of the Sun's fury, no ?

    If the heat shield has failed, shouldn't the rest of the probe be a lump of molten stuff as well ?

    Could someone please explain this remark ?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: "It is possible the heat shield will have failed after spending so long in orbit"

      It’s ceramic, and it probably will have been hit by stuff over the years and cracked.

  14. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Eventually….

    …one of these things will kill somebody. Or at least fall on an “important” country.

    1. Richard Tobin

      Re: Eventually….

      At least it's unlikely that this will happen.

      1. MrMerrymaker

        Re: Eventually….

        What, a 405 not allowed error?

        Yeah I can't see this probe doing that.

        1. Richard Tobin

          Re: Eventually….

          Works here. Try this instead: https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3211100#/media/File:Guggenheim_NOV2011_Cattelan_5.jpg

          1. heyrick Silver badge

            Re: Eventually….

            Or here for an explanation: https://lesoeuvres.pinaultcollection.com/en/artwork/la-nona-ora

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Eventually….

          ... same here (405) ... BUT ... I guess it's Maurizio CATTELAN's La Nona ora (from the URL) and ... this link may work ... ;)

  15. MrMerrymaker

    the chances of hitting Trump .

    So you're telling me there's a chance

  16. PCScreenOnly

    Trumps head

    Please please please

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: Trumps head

      Are you sure his wig isn't armoured? Or if it's actually an alien mind control creature - it might just sit up and blast the thing out of the sky.

  17. TeeCee Gold badge

    If it hits the Kremlin..

    .. I'd take that as proof of the existence of God.

  18. bill 27
    Linux

    I don't care!

    I live at 61.2N

    It's what all those people get for living down there in the high-heat zone.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: I don't care!

      ... and Santa's safe too ... so he'll be able to deliver 2 puny little dolls to all the kids this year, instead of the 30 dolls they asked for ... Thank you so much mister Orange Grinch!

      1. Stevie Silver badge

        Re: I don't care!

        If only there were an object on which it could land, something most of the world would be glad to see pulverized by a Russian space probe ...

  19. regnik

    So everyone north of Banbury, Hereford, Royston and Ipswich can relax. But if you are in Fishguard a short cycle ride shoud see you safe.

    1. Giles C Silver badge

      Great I am 40 miles north of Royston so nothing to worry about, unless it gets close to the office in Cambridge..

    2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

      Hmm. I'm at 51.992729N. Should be OK, but...

  20. Anonymous Anti-ANC South African Coward Silver badge

    Can it do us a favour and hit Nkandla? Or Parliament while it is in session?

  21. Stevie Silver badge

    Bah!

    If ever there was a time for Thunderbird 3 to launch and save the day, it would be now.

    1. TRT Silver badge

      Re: Bah!

      Galasphere 347!

      1. Stevie Silver badge

        Re: Bah!

        Captain Larry Dart to the bridge!

  22. JTBear

    hmm..Venus probe

    this really remind me, in ways, of a few episode of Six Million Dollar Man in ways..

    1. TRT Silver badge

      Re: hmm..Venus probe

      Ack. You beat me to it!

  23. TRT Silver badge

    Oddly enough...

    I was reading about this mission series just the other day because a couple of memorable episodes of The Six Million Dollar Man were airing, and of all the episodes of this programme I watched as a child, the only stories that I can recall without a reminder are the first, the Big Foot ones and the Venus Death Probe ones. The Death Probe ones were those being aired on I think its Legend channel this past week.

    1. Robert Carnegie Silver badge

      Re: Oddly enough...

      I think there's a one or two part "Return of Death Probe"... ah, yes, described. (Someone just built a copy and turned it loose.)

      If you don't think it looks and acts like a fat Dalek without a speaking hole, then your education is incomplete.

      I too thought of that Venus mission manque (I don't think it was returning or meant to be, it never got there?) while reading this Register story. But the dates don't work for Death Probe to be related to this rocket. But plenty of other rockets went wrong.

      1. TRT Silver badge

        Re: Oddly enough...

        Russian Venus probe, American Venus probe... all made in Taiwan.

  24. spold Silver badge

    Keeping in mind...

    That for any statistical estimate there is a 90% chance it is wrong.

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