Soviet probe from 1972 set to return to Earth ... in May 2025

A Soviet probe launched more than half a century ago is due to return to Earth in the next week or two, and there's every chance that the vehicle will make it all the way to our planet's surface. Venera-8 Descent Module A Venera-8 descent module (click to enlarge) Source: NASA archive "You wouldn't want it bashing you on …

[Korev]

The good news is that the probe is inert – it has no nuclear material to worry about. The bad news is that it weighs almost 500 kg and could be travelling at around 240 km/h (150 mph) when it hits, according to Dutch lecturer on space situational awareness Dr Marco Langbroek. Exactly where the probe will come down is unclear; Langbroek wrote that current modelling puts it anywhere between latitude 52 N and 52 S. As the reentry nears, the estimates will become more refined.

Interestingly, Delft, where his university is, just fits in this area. I wonder if he's off to his underground lair?

[elsergiovolador]

The best time to start a new suicide cult in the campus is now. The magic seed from space is coming.

[Sorry that handle is already taken.]

I can't help thinking it'll only be doing as little as 240 km/h if its parachute deploys.

[AVR]

Apparently it's predicted to do that without the parachute. The parachute seems to have deployed already and will burn up rather than be any use.

[Anonymous Coward]

I wonder if he's off to his underground lair?

Although I'm sure it's very decorative, building a University of Delft was perhaps not the wisest choice, especially if your research is impactful.

[Anonymous Coward]

I call Bull!

[Gene Cash]

> Interestingly, Delft, where his university is, just fits in this area. I wonder if he's off to his underground lair?

Half the planet fits in this area. I don't think he's worrying.

[DS999]

Probably something like 98% of world population lives between 52N and 52S so if it is looking to hit people it is aimed in the right place.

[Andrew Scott]

with luck it will be putin down where it came from.

[Anonymous Coward]

The Dutch mostly have underwater lairs.

[elsergiovolador]

The Terminal

I can imagine it being stuck for the rest of days in bureaucratic limbo given the country it comes from no longer exists.

[Paul Herber]

CCCP

Copyright Chinese Communist Party.

[elsergiovolador]

It's actually Communist Party of China (CPC)

[Paul Herber]

Well, it could be, if you don't have a sense of humour ...

[Anonymous Coward]

Found the wumao.

Did you get your 50 cents for that comment, shill?

[vogon00]

CPC? How long have Farnell been allowing communist electronics trading under their capitalist website?

[LBJsPNS]

Ackshually, that's Communist Party of China, LLC.

[Yet Another Hierachial Anonynmous Coward]

I'm not a statistician, but....

"The chances of it striking a person are vanishingly small and in the order of one in several thousand. But not zero."

"One in several thousand" sounds pretty scary, bearing in mind there are 7 billion or so of us crawling around planet earth. In fact there are more than several thousand people in my town..... Does that mean that a few of my near neighbours are about to get bonked on the head?

Come on El Reg, please be more accurate in your STEM reporting. It is why you exist, and why we come here after all.

[Paul Herber]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

After a quick analysis I have determined the correct units are Welsh apatosaurs per Belgian swimming pool cubed.

[VicMortimer]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

What's that in Freedom Units? (In this case, that's probably going to be in Freedom Fries per Rhode Island.)

[Anonymous Coward]

What's that in Freedom Units?

A Brexit times a Farage to the minus free?

[Gene Cash]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

Half the planet fits in that belt, and it's going to hit somewhere in there, is all it's saying.

The best money will be on it splashing somewhere in the ocean since there's more ocean than land.

There's a good chance it will float however, if it does hit ocean.

[David Hicklin]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

> There's a good chance it will float however, if it does hit ocean.

At that speed the water will behave more like a solid than a liquid

[David 132]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

At that speed, any person it hits will behave more like a liquid than a solid.

[Ian Johnston]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

If depends whether they the mean that the chances of it hitting anyone at all or anyone in particular are one in several thousand. I presume the former.

[John Brown (no body)]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

...and billions of people around the world buy lottery tickets in the hope of getting rich based on far, far worse odds :-)

[jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid]

Re: I'm not a statistician, but....

One in several thousand might be the probably of it striking _a_ person (ie any person, not one person in particular). But that's not the same as the probably of it hitting any one specific person.

Or to put it another way, with some huge simplifications: if the probability of it hitting a person is 1 in several thousand and there are 7bn in the potential firing line, the chance of it hitting specifically you (or any other specific individual) would be 1 in (several thousand X 7bn). ie your personal chance of being hit is the chance of it hitting any person AND any person randomly selected being you.

[Peter Prof Fox]

Oh noes!

If only President Trump could DO SOMETHING! Millions of American lives could be saved.

[Paul Herber]

Re: Oh noes!

He could form a band, Supertrump. Crisis? What crisis?

"Ain't Nobody but Me" - all about you know who.

[Graham Cobb]

Re: Oh noes!

Am I the only person who thinks the 3 downvoters have never heard of either the band or the album but are just paid to downvote any apparent criticism of the orange one?

[sanmigueelbeer]

Re: Oh noes!

The latter.

[Casca]

Re: Oh noes!

Its the standard three downvotes for anything critical of the orange one

[Phil O'Sophical]

Re: Oh noes!

If only President Trump could DO SOMETHING! Millions of American lives could be saved.

What, like offer to catch it? I'd pay to see that...

[Outski]

Re: Oh noes!

Using Rusty?

[abend0c4]

Re: Oh noes!

He's already saved two thirds of the US population from death by "fentanol", I gather. Can't the guy have a day off?

[HuBo]

Re: Oh noes!

Yeah, if I heard Pam Bondi right on this YT, he's saved 258 million kids' lives everyday since taking office ... it's like almost 26 billion now, and it's really exceptional! And why isn't the whole World media reporting this continuously??? He sure deserves a couple of birthday parades, with lotsa $2T savings DOGE brownshirt wankers, and associated asscrack-caliper comptrolled chihuahuas, imho!

[jake]

Re: Oh noes!

I've discovered that anything with puppy-killer Barbie's name attached to it is well worth ignoring.

[jake]

Re: Oh noes!

Oops. Wrong Barbie.

The Barbies the Convicted Criminal in Chief surrounds himself with are beginning to all run together.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Oh noes!

> Barbies ... are beginning to all run together

Acetone will have that effect - keep them away from the nail polish remover. Breathing too much of that in does cause lightheadedness, makes you easily distracted, disjointed speech, confusing events in the past...

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Oh noes!

He's already saved two thirds of the US population from death by "fentanol", I gather. Can't the guy have a day off?

No! now he needs to save all those who are being killed by firearms. He will need to put special tariffs on all those countries exporting firearms to the US so as to protect the US arms industry.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Oh noes!

True, you need to realize that Americans can ONLY be killed by American guns!!! It is not acceptable for Americans to be killed by NON American guns. It is not fair on the American gun industry.

[notyetanotherid]

Re: Oh noes!

> He's already saved two thirds of the US population from death by "fentanol", I gather. Can't the guy have a day off?

... and don't forget the 200 trade deals that he's negotiated: https://time.com/7280114/donald-trump-2025-interview-transcript/

[Christoph]

Re: Oh noes!

Don't give him ideas! Canada, Greenland, Panama, Gaza, Vatican City, and next Venus.

[Paul Herber]

Re: Oh noes!

'Venus'

He's got it, yeah baby he's got ...

[Tron]

If it lands on Trump...

...we will all have to start going to church.

[A Non e-mouse]

Re: If it lands on Trump...

..of the poisoned mind?

[Throatwarbler Mangrove]

Re: If it lands on Trump...

Ah, I see you are also a man of Culture (Club).

[David 132]

Re: If it lands on Trump...

Bow down, Mister!

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: If it lands on Trump...

Trump seems to have raised the odds of a direct hit.

[TRT]

Re: If it lands on Trump...

It'll be too expensive to make a decent film of it, though.

[MrReynolds2U]

Re: If it lands on Trump...

Definitely wins comment of the week

[trevorde]

Message from Venera-8 descent module

Should I target Trump or Putin?

[Throatwarbler Mangrove]

Re: Message from Venera-8 descent module

If it breaks in two and manages to hit both, I will really have to reconsider this atheism thing.

[Ze]

Thoughts from Venera-8 descent module

Why oh why can't they be together so I can get them both.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Message from Venera-8 descent module

Should I target Trump or Putin?

I checked. Moscow is above 55° N so outside the ±52° target zone but Washington DC is 39° N and Florida lower so it's the Orange eejit and hopefully his DoGEy kennel master with the various other blots on the copybook of humanity all kneeling around kissing the eejit's arse at impact.

Altogether appropriate if that sleeze were to be knocked off his perch by a Veneral affliction.

[renniks]

Re: Message from Venera-8 descent module

Try to get Trump and Vance - that'd be a much better result!

[Sparkus]

I predict

....the Glorious Return of Nikita Khrushchev having been sustained in frozen stasis these past 50 years.

His reported death in 1971 was but a distraction.

[Ian Johnston]

Re: I predict

But how is Mr Bigglesworthski?

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: I predict

What are Clint Eastwood and Tommy Lee Jones doing at the moment? I believe they have relevant experience with old Soviet space equipment with secret payloads.

[KarMann]

Re: I predict

I was not ready for that.

[frankyunderwood123]

The anti-lottery

I have a new comparison when discussing the idiotic idea of playing the lottery and the likelihood of winning the top prize.

My usual is it’s akin to being struck by lightning twice at the same place.

I shall now add getting hit by an old Russian satellite on the head.

When it comes to the euro millions lottery it may as well be both at the same time along with the second coming of Jesus Christ

The anti lottery is instead being struck by the bad luck

[sitta_europea]

Re: The anti-lottery

"I have a new comparison when discussing the idiotic idea of playing the lottery ..."

At work, years ago, the usual chaotic effort to pick the week's lottery numbers was in progress.

The idea was a different person would choose the numbers each week.

For some unknown reason that week they asked me to choose the numbers.

Not knowing much about the lottery, but more than most about numbers, I wrote down

1234567

on the sheet of paper and handed it over.

"Well they're not going to win!"

"I know", I said, "but it's obvious they're not going to win and they have the same chance as any other numbers you might choose".

The sales manager was flabberghasted. "Do you really believe that?", he said.

"I don't have to believe it. I can prove it." I said.

Nevertheless they wouldn't use my numbers and they never asked me again.

[Ian Johnston]

Re: The anti-lottery

1234567 has one of the lowest expected returns of any set of lottery numbers and it's therefore a terrible choice.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: The anti-lottery

"I don't have to believe it. I can prove it." I said.

Might be a brave claim.

Reading a reasonably introductory text on (mathematical) statistics a while ago I was surprised how many footnotes referred to fairly deep results from analysis and a few yet unproven conjectures.

Unfortunately even fairly commonsense arguments generally fail through the likes of sales (indeed all) managers being unable follow any form of deductive reasoning (certainly any not involving the mass of ducks.)

You: "You accept that drawing a numbered ball from a pool of 40 (say) any particular number 1,2,3,.... has an equal chance of being drawn?"

SM: "Yes it's obvious. 39 to 1 against."

You: "So if I specify four numbers in advance - say 11,23,27,38 - they should have the same likelihood of being drawn as any other four numbers?"

SM: "Yes. Obviously."

You: "So if I specify 1,2,3,4 I should have an equal chance as any other four numbers?"

SM: "No way! Those numbers would never come up. Just doesn't happen."

I assume part of the reason behind this irrational belief is that the odds any particular six numbers in a 6 from 45 lottery (to use a local example) being drawn† in even decades of weekly draws are increadibly unlikely.

So a sort of confirmation bias 1,2,3,4,5,6 have never come up "so they must be^‡" much more unlikely than 1,4,20,36,37,39 (courtesy of the local Lotto site's autofill) which unremarked and unremarkably haven't come up either.

More likely magical thinking that Fortuna like the unnamed Emerald Eyed goddess of Discworld does play favourites.

_{† ⁴⁵C6 = 45!/(6!39!) ~ 8 × 10⁶ even after the 500 draws the odds are still rather low [P+(1-P)P+(1-P)²P+...+(1-P)⁴⁹⁹P] where P ~ 0.123 × 10^-6}

_{‡ a red flag that you arguing with a fool. And No.}

[Malcolm Weir]

Re: The anti-lottery

Oddly enough, those who smugly claim that only those with a poor understanding of math(s) play lotteries are frequently themselves wrong:

If the odds of being the single winner are, say, 1 in 100,000,000, and the ticket price is $1, then if the jackpot is greater than $100,000,000 your expected winnings will be (jackpot) * (probability of winning) which exceeds the stake amount, so it's worth playing.

(of course, the Game Theory arithmetic is much more complicated in the real world, because of lesser prizes and greater odds, and the number of tickets sold influencing the probability of you being a single winner, and so on, but at some point the game is worth playing...)

[David Hicklin]

Re: The anti-lottery

> single winner are, say, 1 in 100,000,000, and the ticket price is $1, then if the jackpot is greater than $100,000,000

I remember reading the tale of a group that tried to get every number in a lottery (America I think) in order to guarantee a win, and the crazy lengths they went to to do it. I the end they missed some numbers but still won, not sure what would have happened if they had to share the prize!

[Dom 3]

Re: The anti-lottery

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/how-a-secret-syndicate-managed-to-buy-the-lotto/35981173.html

[Malcolm Weir]

Re: The anti-lottery

Five down votes? Sorry, guys, the math still maths.

[HorseflySteve]

Re: The anti-lottery

Except the jackpot won't be $100,000,000 as the main reason for running a lottery is usually to enrich the people running it and to raise some money for charities. There also the cost of the technology to operate it th consider.

When the UK National Lottery was first introduced, I used to play occasionally just for fun as it was only £1 and was run once a week.

Then the Communications Director of Camelot, who had the contract to run it, was revealed to have stated that he couldn'ts live on his £250,000 p/a salary and wanted it raising to £500,000 p/a. Such was the public outcry that he resigned and wasn't replaced which implies that he did nothing significant to earn the £250,000 annual salary anyway.

I've never played it again.

[Antony Shepherd]

Well at least it's not a million to one chance

Because if Terry Pratchett taught me anything it was that million to one chances happen nine times out of ten.

[Paul Crawford]

Re: Well at least it's not a million to one chance

Ah! That is why Nickleback wanted a swimming pool big enough for "ten plus me"!

[David 132]

Re: Well at least it's not a million to one chance

But Ogilvy the astronomer has assured me we are in no danger. “The chances of anything coming from Mars the 206 x 9,800 km orbit are a million-to-one”, he said…

[Anonymous Coward]

Whooosh, crash!

Hi!

What a journey.

Venus sure seems a lot nicer than I was told.

Take me to your leader.

[Grunchy]

I’d laugh if it crashes into the Kremlin! :)

[Anonymous Coward]

I’m hooooooome!

[HorseflySteve]

Too far north

According to Wikipedia, the Moscow Kremlin is located at 55°45′6″N 37°37′4″E, so it's out of range.

The White House, Palace of Westminster and my house, however...

[Richard 12]

Re: Too far north

Palace of Westminster is right on the edge, so highly unlikely.

White House is far more likely.

My house (like nearly all the UK) has zero chance, so I'll be watching the fireworks!

[HorseflySteve]

Re: Too far north

My house is further south than the Palace of Westminster but also a very much smaller target so, yes, highly unlikely but still a non-zero probability.

This is one lottery I don't want to win!

[jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid]

Re: Too far north

"Palace of Westminster is right on the edge, so highly unlikely"

I'm not sure that's right - to say that locations right on the edge are less likely. The range of latitudes given will be due to the object having a 52 degree orbital inclination, not because it's going round the equator and will drift off to the side randomly (with perhaps a normal distribution of the cross-track error) on impact. Over the long term, a non-synchronous orbit will spend an equal amount of time over every point on earth bound by the upper and lower latitudes equal to the orbit's inclination. Unless you have it in a synchronous orbit, which you would only do if you specifically wanted to revisit certain tracks on the earth. Given this probe was destined for Venus, I very much doubt it was in an earth synchronous orbit.

[Casca]

Its a CCCP plot to take out the White house. They didnt take into account that CCCP doesnt exist anymore and that the current inhabitant of the White house is a friend of russia. Whopsie

[Pascal Monett]

"It is possible the heat shield will have failed after spending so long in orbit"

Hmm. Isn't a heat shield just a slab of metal ?

I know that being bombarded by the Sun's full radiative fury is certainly not a good thing, but isn't that probe still inside the Earth's magnetosphere ? That should protect a slab of metal from the worst of the Sun's fury, no ?

If the heat shield has failed, shouldn't the rest of the probe be a lump of molten stuff as well ?

Could someone please explain this remark ?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: "It is possible the heat shield will have failed after spending so long in orbit"

It’s ceramic, and it probably will have been hit by stuff over the years and cracked.

[Anonymous Coward]

Eventually….

…one of these things will kill somebody. Or at least fall on an “important” country.

[Richard Tobin]

Re: Eventually….

At least it's unlikely that this will happen.

[MrMerrymaker]

Re: Eventually….

What, a 405 not allowed error?

Yeah I can't see this probe doing that.

[Richard Tobin]

Re: Eventually….

Works here. Try this instead: https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3211100#/media/File:Guggenheim_NOV2011_Cattelan_5.jpg

[heyrick]

Re: Eventually….

Or here for an explanation: https://lesoeuvres.pinaultcollection.com/en/artwork/la-nona-ora

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Eventually….

... same here (405) ... BUT ... I guess it's Maurizio CATTELAN's La Nona ora (from the URL) and ... this link may work ... ;)

[MrMerrymaker]

the chances of hitting Trump .

So you're telling me there's a chance

[PCScreenOnly]

Trumps head

Please please please

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Trumps head

Are you sure his wig isn't armoured? Or if it's actually an alien mind control creature - it might just sit up and blast the thing out of the sky.

[TeeCee]

If it hits the Kremlin..

.. I'd take that as proof of the existence of God.

[bill 27]

I don't care!

I live at 61.2N

It's what all those people get for living down there in the high-heat zone.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I don't care!

... and Santa's safe too ... so he'll be able to deliver 2 puny little dolls to all the kids this year, instead of the 30 dolls they asked for ... Thank you so much mister Orange Grinch!

[Stevie]

Re: I don't care!

If only there were an object on which it could land, something most of the world would be glad to see pulverized by a Russian space probe ...

[regnik]

So everyone north of Banbury, Hereford, Royston and Ipswich can relax. But if you are in Fishguard a short cycle ride shoud see you safe.

[Giles C]

Great I am 40 miles north of Royston so nothing to worry about, unless it gets close to the office in Cambridge..

[Phil O'Sophical]

Hmm. I'm at 51.992729N. Should be OK, but...

[Anonymous Anti-ANC South African Coward]

Can it do us a favour and hit Nkandla? Or Parliament while it is in session?

[Stevie]

Bah!

If ever there was a time for Thunderbird 3 to launch and save the day, it would be now.

[TRT]

Re: Bah!

Galasphere 347!

[Stevie]

Re: Bah!

Captain Larry Dart to the bridge!

[JTBear]

hmm..Venus probe

this really remind me, in ways, of a few episode of Six Million Dollar Man in ways..

[TRT]

Re: hmm..Venus probe

Ack. You beat me to it!

[TRT]

Oddly enough...

I was reading about this mission series just the other day because a couple of memorable episodes of The Six Million Dollar Man were airing, and of all the episodes of this programme I watched as a child, the only stories that I can recall without a reminder are the first, the Big Foot ones and the Venus Death Probe ones. The Death Probe ones were those being aired on I think its Legend channel this past week.

[Robert Carnegie]

Re: Oddly enough...

I think there's a one or two part "Return of Death Probe"... ah, yes, described. (Someone just built a copy and turned it loose.)

If you don't think it looks and acts like a fat Dalek without a speaking hole, then your education is incomplete.

I too thought of that Venus mission manque (I don't think it was returning or meant to be, it never got there?) while reading this Register story. But the dates don't work for Death Probe to be related to this rocket. But plenty of other rockets went wrong.

[TRT]

Re: Oddly enough...

Russian Venus probe, American Venus probe... all made in Taiwan.

[spold]

Keeping in mind...

That for any statistical estimate there is a 90% chance it is wrong.