Anthropic calls for tougher GPU export controls as Nvidia's CEO implores Trump to spread the AI love Anthropic has urged the White House to further tighten so-called AI diffusion rules – which are already set to hurt Nvidia and co by limiting or blocking the sale of higher-end GPUs and accelerators outside the US and a select few allies from mid-May. On Wednesday, the San Francisco-based chatbot maker said in a briefing note …
In a few years from now when most of the world is running Chinese AI models on Chinese AI accelerators made on Chinese semiconductor machinery, the people who came up with this grand plan will be telling us that this result was all the fault of the devious Chinese and their nefarious plans.
Whilst I agree, could there have been any alternative outcome?
Let's think through a scenario where the fat orange cry baby had lost the last US presidential election, and the US had a dull but competent* female president. Likely that she would not have upended global trade, upset global bond markets, alienated allies, and picked a fight with a country that holds huge amounts of US treasuries, remains a major buyer of same, and does all the manufacturing jobs that US consumers didn't want to pay Americans to do.
In this scenario, would China have sat back and allowed itself to continue to be reliant upon the US for advanced technology? I think not, the evidence is that China is determined to be self reliant for everything, and even minerals it can't be self reliant for have been secured by bribery and investment diplomacy. So I think the outcome would be the same, albeit that in my President Harris scenario, China would not have pursued this tech self sufficiency with the huge vigour that will be the case now. There's one other thing that's different, and that Harris would probably have been willing to guarantee Taiwan's independence, whereas Ronald Dump has shown every sign that he doesn't give a big, slimy, orange shit. Taiwan is central to global tech leadership for obvious reasons, if/when China "reunifies", then that puts the most advanced semi manufacturing under Chinese control, and the work done by the US and Europe to build their own fabs will probably be shown to be far too little, too late. The recent Reg article on the EU Chips Act exemplifies how Europe will fail on tech manufacturing as will the US. Both will fail for the single reason of under-investment; the Yanks will lose because their priorities have always been military spending and a tax regime that encourages inequality, Europe will fail for the opposite reason because it chooses to spend €4.6 trillion a year on social welfare, yet has committed a paltry €90 billion to it's chip production ambitions over the next five years.
* Dull but competent, that's how I like national leaders. Starmer's doing as well as he can in the circumstances on both counts.
Dull but competent, that's how I like national leaders. Starmer's doing as well as he can in the circumstances on both counts.
The Vulture really does need a spilt coffee icon to minimise the ongoing abuse of monitors and keyboards.
Boris was the supreme failure there.
I think you're right in that altering Trump 1 or Biden 1's policies would have kept the Chinese tech industry slumbering (why develop your own chips when NVidia floods the market), but even then it's at best a slowing factor. China remembers the last time when it lost its sovereignty, in a way beyond the elite, it's a societal perception.
These are the fallacies:
1. China can't accomplish anything without stealing IP/technogoly from the west.
2. ...
That's it. It's false.
This is the corollary fallacy:
1. Western schools can continue to lead innovation without Chinese foreign students.
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202403/16/WS65f4e78ba31082fc043bcf71.html
China will lead in innovation. That's it. It's true.
Going through another "encryption algorithms are akin to military arms" export controls fiasco with AI technology is just that, a fiasco.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_of_cryptography_from_the_United_States
It can't be stopped, math is math, tech is tech. "This is ours and we are keeping it ours" only works if you have an idea and don't tell anyone about it, and then it's worthless.
You have to COMPETE. That's the whole point of capitalism. It's the ultimate irony that communism can and will dominate at it.
If you hobble your leading AI pioneers, guess what THEY WILL NO LONGER LEAD. It doesn't take an Adam Smith level mind to tell you that.
If you want to be ahead in AI or in anything, then you have to invest in it. Look to China to learn how to do that. Or try export controls and tariffs and see how that goes. I'm betting on not at all well.
Let’s not pretend China hasn’t stolen trillions of euro in IP from the west, starting with the exfiltration of decades worth of materiel from NASA’s Curiosity Rover Control room in 2013. They’ve even stolen hypersonic technology from their supposed partner in Moscow. Xi has been conducting hybrid warfare since 2013, the evidence is plain as day. Just like Vladimir Putin, he’ll make the mistake of partaking in military action which will destroy whatever progress the country has made. Dictators always fall for these traps, as do their overseas fanboys who simply hate the United Stated and/or European Union.
That’s an interesting fantasy, considering they’ve made their plans to invade Taiwan very clear by building specialty bridging equipment which has no other viable use-case. I bet you were creaming your pants when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Xi will doom the Chinese people to mega-floods, the result of collapsing gravity dams.
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