Tesla's Optimus can't roll without rare earth magnets, and Beijing ain't budging yet

Elon Musk says supply chain disruption in China held up delivery of a key component for Tesla's "Optimus" robot, with authorities reportedly demanding an export license and guarantees about military applications. During an earnings call following Tesla's lackluster calendar Q1 results in which revenue slumped 20 percent to $12 …

[Anonymous Coward]

What will China want in return?

"with authorities reportedly demanding an export license and guarantees about military applications."

Karma?

I think the US will have to give some, rather, a lot of, concessions in return before getting the stuff they need from China.

Musk:

"They're just going into a humanoid robot. So that's not a weapon system."

Who knows where these magnets and motors end up. It is not that Americans (wherever they were born) have much credit or trust left with the Chinese.

[Dan 55]

Re: What will China want in return?

Where "humanoid robot" means "some guy in spandex". Can nobody in the US make spandex any more?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

Thank Heavens that nobody has ever designed weapons to be carried by humanoids.

[Groo The Wanderer - A Canuck]

Re: What will China want in return?

I just find it amusing that mere weeks after Muscolini was promising "millions" of them in a year or two, he suddenly has an excuse to ship none.

Convenient, eh?

[Fruit and Nutcase]

Re: What will China want in return?

He's been reading "The Art of the Deal" - Trump himself is now finding excuses for his ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

What war in Ukraine? Have I missed a meeting?

Faux News told us The Donald ended that within minutes of him taking office, just before he was awarded the Nobel Prizes for Peace and Medicine, cured cancer, solved global warming and won the Superbowl.

[Ian Johnston]

Re: What will China want in return?

Won't be the first time. Remember the semi? Mind you, once they have found a way to pipe carbon monoxide into the back the Trump administration will probably buy them by the thousand for deportations.

[Alumoi]

Re: What will China want in return?

It's like Musk goaded Trump to start the tariff crap so he could justify his failures.

And that, my friends, is how conspiracy theories start.

[bombastic bob]

Re: What will China want in return?

To **HELL** with CCP China!!!

U.S. Dept of Interior is currently HYPER-FOCUSED on green-lighting DOMESTIC sources for all of that.

CCP will see PLENTY of BATTLE DROIDS (OURS, not theirs) in the near-enough future, made 100% in the USA.

And we won't let the CCP STEAL the I.P. on them, either!!! Good luck actually INVENTING THINGS under COMMUNIST OPPRESSION!

[if the CCP tries to control/manipulate US, they'll **LOSE** **EVERYTHING** from their #1 market - enjoy your economic depression, CCP!]

[nematoad]

Re: What will China want in return?

Dear God! I think that you need to start taking your dried frog pills again.

Or stop reading Trump's social media posts.

They look as if they are contagious.

What sentence ever needed three exclamation marks?

[Ken Hagan]

Re: What will China want in return?

"Or stop reading Trump's social media posts."

Maybe "bombastic bob" is Donald's handle on this site?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

It is a sign of the times that I really don't know whether this comment of bombastic bob is serious or a parody/sarcasm.

[Alumoi]

Re: What will China want in return?

Wait, what? When did you think that BB's comments were anything else than sarcams?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

"When did you think that BB's comments were anything else than sarcams?"

That's the point. I am in doubt.

[EricB123]

Re: What will China want in return?

Dried frogs have medicinal value? The cool things I learn here!

[AndrewA]

Re: What will China want in return?

Dried Frog Pills are a mythical medicine that wizards often needed in Sir Terry Pratchet's fantastic Diskworld series. I suspect they reference the hallucinogenic effects after licking specific species of toad.

[Ochib]

Re: What will China want in return?

If just the right combination of ingredients are used, they can make the user hallucinate that they are sane

[Ian Johnston]

Re: What will China want in return?

What's the difference between "focussed" and "HYPER-FOCUSSED", apart from the capitals? Are there intermediate stages like "very focussed" or "super-focussed"?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

I think it's a typo - it should just read "HYPE-FOCUSSED"

[Casca]

Re: What will China want in return?

wow, just wow...

[anonymous boring coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

You are back!

Still not learning?

Adjust that foil cap.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

Perhaps he will claim they will drive the Tesla Robotaxi’s or Tesla’s with the underpowered self-drive computer <LOL>.

[ChrisElvidge]

Re: What will China want in return?

China wants assurances that these are not used for military purposes, which obviously they're not. They're just going into a humanoid robot. So that's not a weapon system.

Not yet, anyway.

[Groo The Wanderer - A Canuck]

Re: What will China want in return?

Hand ANY humanoid robot a weapon that a human can carry and suddenly you have an automated weapons platform...

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What will China want in return?

They don't have any trust or credibility with the entire world. Most just smile at the when they speak but have daggers behind their eyes. China no longer needs to bow down to them.

I actually used to think the US was the greatest, most honest country in the world. I thought they were freedom fighters who helped the weak and poor. I even cheered after they invaded Iraq. It took me a long time to wipe away years of indoctrination.

Being well travelled now, and watching the US bully the weak and all the intelligence leaks. I refuse to go back to the US unless it's absolutely necessary. I have stopped buying their products whenever possible. Which is not that difficult. And after Trump is done I think many others will be doing the same.

[trevorde]

Obvious synergy

Optimus robot to drive RoboTaxi from New York to LA

[Andy Non]

Re: Obvious synergy

Will said robot be wearing spandex?

[Fruit and Nutcase]

Re: Obvious synergy

Subject to supply chain/tariff issues being resolved for Spandex supplied by China

[Will Godfrey]

Re: Obvious synergy

I said nothing of the sort!

{mutter}{mutter}

[R Soul]

Oh the irony...

It will be highly entertaining if the Musky One's rare earth difficulties have been complicated by DOGE mass-firings in the government departments who process import paperwork, collect tariff payments, check incoming materials at the border, etc, etc.

[ecofeco]

Re: Oh the irony...

I see you are one of the few who have thought this through.

Have my upvote.

[Fruit and Nutcase]

Re: Oh the irony...

@R Soul & @ecofeco

Have some beer - though, if you are a left pondian, I can only offer you import tariff free US beer - not the imported stuff from Europe

[bombastic bob]

Re: Oh the irony...

DOGE is probably making DOMESTIC sources of rare earths easier to mine, by eliminating the multiple layers of CRAPPY RED TAPE that has kep mining uinterests at bay for OVER 20 YEARS! [I posted a link in another response, HERE IT IS again]

[jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid]

Re: Oh the irony...

"DOGE is probably making DOMESTIC sources of rare earths easier to mine, by eliminating the multiple layers of CRAPPY RED TAPE that has kep mining uinterests at bay for OVER 20 YEARS!"

That Fast-41 list includes no mining or geological exploration projects related the metals needed for magnets. It's mostly lithium for batteries.

[MachDiamond]

Re: Oh the irony...

"It's mostly lithium for batteries."

...and Lithium is nowhere near the Lanthanides.

[bombastic bob]

Re: Oh the irony...

this is just the beginning, by the way...

https://korhogominerals.com/where-is-neodymium-found-in-the-us/

Mostly just need to get/keep Cali-Fornicate-You bureaucrats out of the way under a Federal Emergency declaration so they can't STALL IT for 30+ years...

[Charlie Clark]

Re: Oh the irony...

For the hard of thinking – the problem with rare earths isn't necessarily where they are, but that they occur in small quantities making refining very much the bottleneck, and why China has effectively cornered the market. Refining is dirty and very expensive, and totally unsuited for most industrialised countries. It will take years to build up the necessary capacity and the production will always cost a lot more than it does in China.

When it comes to efficiency DOGE has been an expensive waste of time. But, if the aim was to hobble the government, then it's been quite successful. And, yes, those tedious regulations relating to clean air and water are so tedious, aren't they…

[Groo The Wanderer - A Canuck]

Re: Oh the irony...

Well, they interfere with profits.

And unlike the Ferengi who follow the Rules of Acquisition, the Pumpkin Fuhrer and Muscolini both blatantly and explicitly ignore the regulations and laws of the US, choosing instead to denigrate and interfere with the judiciary that is doing their JOB of reminding this rogue leadership that their powers are NOT those of a dictator nor without limitation.

[MachDiamond]

Re: Oh the irony...

"by eliminating the multiple layers of CRAPPY RED TAPE that has kep mining uinterests at bay for OVER 20 YEARS!"

For RE's, it goes beyond the bans on mining as it gets a frosting of "hazardous nuclear waste" on top from the leftover Thorium. In China they don't get all of the NIMBY/tree-hugger/think of the children lawsuits when a mine is proposed and the government went into the "stockpiling Thorium for later" business as they saw they would be able to corner the market for Rare-Earth metals by doing so. Once they put some LFTR reactors online, they'll have all the fuel they need for the next couple of millennia.

[anonymous boring coward]

Re: Oh the irony...

Seek help. You are getting worse.

[trevorde]

Market size predictions

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"So, by 2030, I feel confident in predicting a million Optimus units per year." -- Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, 2025

[sanmigueelbeer]

Re: Market size predictions

Musk said on the call: "Anyone who tells you they can predict with precision, the production ramp of the truly new product – doesn't know what they're talking about."

I feel confident in getting to a million units per year in less than five years. So, by 2030, I feel confident in predicting a million Optimus units per year.

Is this Elon's admission that he does not know what he's talking about?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Market size predictions

What IBM say about the purported Watson quote

"We believe the statement that you attribute to Thomas Watson is a misunderstanding of remarks made at IBM’s annual stockholders meeting on April 28, 1953. In referring specifically and only to the IBM 701 Electronic Data Processing Machine -- which had been introduced the year before as the company’s first production computer designed for scientific calculations -- Thomas Watson, Jr., told stockholders that “IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a machine. I would like to tell you that the machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18.”

[Throatwarbler Mangrove]

With Tesla . . .

I envision something like this.

[HuBo]

Re: With Tesla . . .

Yeah, I'd be careful using them to sort produce as well, but they could be useful for cleaning 35-foot-long ovens in tuna canning plants, or managing meat grinders in pet food factories ... anything more stimulating than security guard or administrative duties that might just encourage them to "end it all" on their own ...

[Dinanziame]

Sounds like he's starting to find excuses for not selling the millions Optimus he predicted

[ecofeco]

Must be one of them Panicans.

He just needs to deal with some short term pain and then the winning will start rolling in!

[Charlie Clark]

Looks like the shareholders largely believed him…

[MachDiamond]

"Sounds like he's starting to find excuses for not selling the millions Optimus he predicted"

One million a year is ~114/hour making them 24/7/365. Or you could look at it as 2/min with a little time off to oil the machines.

A million of something is a really large amount and even more of a challenge when one is talking about a complex mechanical thing with lots of moving parts.

[that one in the corner]

Robots used internally in Tesla factories.

"For internal use only, take with a glass of water".

It may be hard to swallow, but soon Tesla factory workers will no longer be trying to organise unions, asking awkward questions about the boss's compensation package or otherwise being anything other than perfect employees. They'll even start to wear the same size work boots, allowing the company to save by bulk purchase.

Although the staff canteen will have to close due to lack of sales, the company will still be holding Friday movie nights: this week, "Terminator", next week "Saturn 3". Family Special nights in May will be "Demon Seed" and "The Stepford Wives". Attendance - compulsory.

[MachDiamond]

Re: Robots used internally in Tesla factories.

I'm old enough to remember the first Elon promises of an automated auto factory and how well that worked. Will Elon once again bring the company to the brink of bankruptcy trying to do it again, this time with humanoid robots instead of the industrial robots everybody else uses in their factories?

The thing with robotics in a factory environment is the don't need to have flexibility. They can be designed and configured to do a very specific task since they'll be doing that task almost continuously. Even tasks that only run 50% of the time can be well served by dedicated automation. If those tasks are building a sub-assembly, the output can be increased with the assembly being sent to another factory that will then not need the capability to make the thing in-house. I have tools that I don't use that often that are cheaper for me to own. They are there when I need them, renting them isn't an option for various reasons and paying somebody else to do the task would cost more over time than just having the thing sitting in my garage. I approached the same decisions with my manufacturing company the same way. I outsourced a lot of machining as the cost to gear up for it didn't have any ROI. Some tasks were so unique to the products that we made that there was no way to outsource the work and other tasks had schedules that were difficult to get on a calendar and could hold up production significantly if we couldn't do them in-house as/when required. 100% utilization returned nothing. It's like the Shop Smith all-in-one woodworking machines that can be configured for all sorts of things. Jack of all trades, master of none. If you have nothing but a tiny shed, maybe it works. I'd never get one and I see them often enough at estate sales with very low mileage.

[The man with a spanner]

Re: Robots used internally in Tesla factories.

Several decades ago I seem to recolect a documentory with British Leyland demonstrating a factory full of Roberts.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Robots used internally in Tesla factories.

"Bob, have you got Bob's torque wrench?"

"No Bob, I think Bob has it."

"Bob, Bob says you have Bob's torque wrench"

etc

[The man with a spanner]

Re: Robots used internally in Tesla factories.

As I recall, this was about 40 yeats ago, the schetch was a piss take of the BL attitude to modernisation sparked by Fiat of all people advertising that their cars were built by robots.

[graeme leggett]

Re: Robots used internally in Tesla factories.

NTNOCN also had "Built by robots, driven by Italians" to the tune of Rossini's Largo al factotum

[AndyMTB]

Not the 9 o'clock News

https://youtu.be/FU-tuY0Z7nQ

[Ken Shabby]

Re: Robots used internally in Tesla factories.

Are you sure it wasn’t Ruperts?

[Will Godfrey]

Come on Elon

Surely a man of your undoubted brilliance would be able to design and make them yourself... and betterer than anybody else.

[Kevin McMurtrie]

Tech support?

Are the Optimus robots going to have the same level of product support as the Cybertruck? Essentially, "Not used as intended; warranty voided." Do you get banned from Xtter if you discuss flaws in the product? Do you have to publicly kiss Elon's ass to cut ahead in the 6 month repair queue? Even cellphone manufacturers would cringe at Tesla's support.

[Mitoo Bobsworth]

Re: Tech support?

After so thoroughly trashing any good will he may have had left with his fascist, Trumpian wrecking spree. any business within Musks orbit now will be regarded as suspect, toxic, hyped up shite.

[Fruit and Nutcase]

Re: Tech support?

Just like the Cybertruck, probably should keep Optimus away from water

[that one in the corner]

Re: Tech support?

And don't recharge after midnight.

[blu3b3rry]

Re: Tech support?

If it's built to the same standard as the Cybertruck, bits will just drop off it anyway.

[Ian Johnston]

Optimus is that remote control thing which does more-or-less the same as Asimo was doing twenty years ago, right? What are the military going to do with it - drop it on people?

[Caver_Dave]

At least Asimo had a decent OS (VxWorks) and properly engineered software on top of it.

Optimus is a rehash of the car software.

Do I trust it - not a bit.

[Conundrum1885]

Neodymium

Still can't understand why it isn't recycled (much) as waste electronics items like headphones, TV speakers and old hard drives are a rich source.

EAPC motors from seized illegal scooters due to law changes are another potential source, as are hand vacuum motors.

Not sure if this would work at scale but even if someone works 6 hours a day dismantling 'Just' hard drives then they could make a considerable profit especially if part of an existing secure destruction method - showing the complete disassembly process should auditors want to make sure it is being done properly.

[MachDiamond]

Re: Neodymium

"Still can't understand why it isn't recycled (much) as waste electronics items like headphones, TV speakers and old hard drives are a rich source."

Old TV speakers likely have ceramic magnets as those are cheap as chips.

To get NdFeB magnets mechanically sorted from other ferrous metal is a nightmare. About the only way to do it is first heat everything up past the Curie point of the magnet so it will lose orientation and mostly demagnetize. The question is how much it will cost to run a 250C furnace as part of the initial separating process.

[JohnMurray]

Well..

Knowing musk, they'll all be female robots with attitude [and guns]

[MachDiamond]

Re: Well..

"Knowing musk, they'll all be female robots with attitude [and guns]"

And their attorneys filing sexual harassment lawsuits on their behalf. (What would a fembot do with a horse?)

[EricB123]

"China wants assurances that these are not used for military purposes"

I heard that said from another country before... just can't recall which right now.

[Mostly Irrelevant]

Convenient

This is a convenient excuse for a laughable vaporware product.

[Andrew Scott]

seems to me he self owns with ".... doesn't know what he's talking about"!

[DS999]

I bet this is a lie

Musk always promises more than he can deliver when it comes to Tesla. He has been promising autonomous driving for a decade now and still aren't there. Having robots doing something useful is even more difficult than an autonomous car. He knows Tesla investors are losing patience with his constant broken promises and can't be seen to fail to deliver Optimus so he'll blame the failure to deliver on China. Probably will blame the robotaxi rollout not happening on schedule on China as well.

[samsung427]

Communism

A spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of communism.

[Winkypop]

The future is almost here

If you want a picture of the future, imagine an Optimus boot stamping on a human face - for ever.