Trump's tariff turmoil leaves IT projects in deep freeze Trump administration tariffs are leaving the IT industry in "limbo", with CIOs hitting the pause button on new projects as they're unsure whether budgets set today will be disrupted by taxes tomorrow. Investment bank and capital market watcher Jefferies this morning published a report deliving into the US President's trade …
"There are unconfirmed reports suggesting some major IT vendors, including HP, Dell, Lenovo, and Apple, may have temporarily suspended shipments of products such as PCs from China to America."
You don't say. So when you cannot be sure the Tariffs won't change while your shipment is actually on a ship on the ocean, you don't ship?
Who could ever have predicted such an outcome?
Where are these Nobel price economist experts when you need them?
>There are unconfirmed reports suggesting some major IT vendors, including HP, Dell, Lenovo, and Apple, may have temporarily suspended shipments of products such as PCs from China to America."
Wouldn't you ship them anyway, keep them in bonded warehouse at the port and release them when he tweets in the middle of the night "NO TARIFF, TARIFFS, VERY VERY BAD, COVFEFE"
It depends how expensive it is to leave them there versus either leaving them at your typical shipping port or sending them to a different place. You could also send them to a different market without tariffs, for example Canada, and import them from there when US tariffs are nicer, because in the meantime they can be sold to Canadians which makes them a little more flexible. I've also heard rumors that, in preparation for tariffs, companies were attempting to stockpile as much inside the US as they could so they'd have un-tariffed stock for a while. When you don't know when or if conditions could change, and it could be a week from now or several months, and it could be a dramatic increase or decrease, it's hard to plan what action you can take to not get harmed as much by that volatility.
They will get taxed at rate of source country, passing through 3rd party country makes no difference.
Right now our PC, server, storage and network companies are all renegotiating with every change, first with original tariffs, then the 90 days suspension of some tariffs and now exclusion of some tech items. We haven't been able to get pricing for a month now. Even products made outside of US and shipping to non-US countries are getting hit as some products are passing through the US plus to reduce tariff hits most companies do global pricing.
Yes, but having them available where you can sell them is more convenient than having them in a country where you can't because it's too expensive, hence why having extra stock in Canada where you can sell some of it might be more convenient than having extra stock stuck in a warehouse such that, if you decide you want to sell it in Canada, you still have to move it there first.
That's true for laptops perhaps, but smartphones usually don't have different hardware between the US and Canada and often are the same for Latin America as well. Quite often, even when there are different region models, those two countries get lumped together, often with several others. I'm not sure how different the boxes might be, but the expensive things inside the boxes are almost certainly identical.
It seems logical to ensure that DC infrastructure is located outside of the US, even if the users are inside. If the investment is in PCs then maybe the best solution is to repurpose old ones. Or maybe make the entire investment outside the US, locating users there as well. India seems popular for such purposes.
That's not what the USG intended? Any legislator, even a genius like Trump, needs to realise that people will react in the way that optimises outcomes for themselves. To be effective legislation needs to ensure that the optimisations are what the legislator wants.
With the 4th dimension being time?
That could mean he might be playing with Calvin Coolidge to win the 1920s stock market crash?
That would make sense, I mean, tariff wise. I cannot even rule out the Most Stable Genius does believe that himself.
On the other hand, we don't even know for sure whether he understands 2D chess, or even 1D chess.
Sort of. As I understand it, which is not the best measure but probably about the same amount that most people do, the electronics that were exempted are exempted from the reciprocal tariff on China but not the other tariffs on China with the stated explanation that these are semiconductor products, including the things that aren't directly but contain them (E.G. laptops), not including other things that don't contain them directly (E.G. appliances), but they are not exempted from other flat or global tariffs, so the tariff is still higher than it was two weeks ago, and this is planned to change when a blanket tariff on semiconductors is announced at a future time. If this didn't make any sense, that's why nobody has a plan for how to react to it.
The tariffs are in no way reciprocal. Given the purported justification – to redress trade imbalances – they are punitive. However, the same justification would make them illegal, because the president is attempting to use emergency powers to be able to set them: a trade imbalance is not a state of emergency.
Keep stuff moving through your supply chain but set up external repositories. You can serve the rest of the world from these warehouses. Do not import anything to the US at any point of the supply chain. Sell externally only and grow your RotW markets. So Dell can manufacture in China or Vietnam or wherever, and sell to everywhere except the US. It's a big planet. Work it like a proper salesman. The US can do without stuff for a bit.
I think this is mostly what they do anyway. It's just that they have to adjust profit forcasts to write off the US as a market. The real problem for the US is going to be trying to sell to the RotW. They'll not be able to keep their costs steady as tariffs and the dollar fluctuate and they'll be seen as unreliable. The US wants Europe to spend more on defence/ If he was hoping that would be a market for US manufacturing the footgun has already seen to that.
Slightly more long-term, there's going to be a big inflation issue for the US. The whole point of a global supply-chain is that you source goods at the lowest price and then provide your own premium goods/services in return.
The stated intention with the tariffs is to favour US-manufactured goods. However, the price (excluding tariffs) of the US-manufactured goods will inevitably be higher than the imported alternatives, so for folks in the US there will be price inflation for those goods. Additionally, new US manufacturing jobs will put a squeeze on the labour market and cause wage-inflation which will affect the whole economy. There's also the basic question of whether there are enough people available to fill the jobs, especially the highly-skilled jobs, even more so with the US not looking like a nice place to emigrate to.
As per previous comments, one solution for manufacturers may be to isolate the US from the rest of the global supply chain and increase prices as appropriate for the US. The US then gets an inflationary spiral and US-originating goods which are currently shipped to other countries will then have to be manufactured outside of the US to bring costs down.
*IF* enough countries do new trade deals with the US that the supply chain can re-open with zero/minimal tariffs then maybe the US might see an overall benefit, but the odds are looking very low and I suspect that China *will* be willing to take a hit and play the long-gane if it has to.
It's not exactly that simple, because some markets subsidise others and this is factored in the price.
If they could make huge profit in the UK and not so much in Eastern Europe, that would have been priced in.
So if they lose US market or becomes less profitable, then it would have an effect on pricing in other markets that will have to pick up the slack.
"If they could make huge profit in the UK and not so much in Eastern Europe, that would have been priced in."
Exactly this, unless you are using local resellers who can price locally then enterprise suppliers use global pricing which helps even out local fluctuations except at the moment the whole supply chain and global markets are f*cked. And passing stock through lower tariffed countries has no effect as tariffs are applied at rate where parts are sourced (this is somehow split on cost of the part as a percentage of final cost of the item) and where assembly takes place.
"So if they lose US market or becomes less profitable, then it would have an effect on pricing in other markets that will have to pick up the slack."
Let's say you go to an Apple Store in the UK for a new Mac or iPhone, and they tell you "we all know that Trump is a narcissistic idiot who hurts our sales and profits in the USA, so unfortunately you guys in the UK have to pay more to pick up the slack". The answer would be "f*** that, I'll use my iPhone until it breaks or you put your prices back to normal, and if you think I'll pay more to pay for Trump puking all over your place in the USA, I'd rather buy a Samsung phone than paying for US home made problems".
Stupid Americans deserve what's coming to them. Easter is coming, and eggs in the US are now so expensive that people are painting "Easter Potatoes" instead. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/easter-eggs-u-s-1.7510497
So much for bringing the price of eggs down.
In Soviet Amerika, Easter Potatoes hunt YOU!
@LVPC
"Stupid Americans deserve what's coming to them. Easter is coming, and eggs in the US are now so expensive that people are painting "Easter Potatoes" instead."
Americans deserve bird flu? Or killing off loads of egg laying birds in response to bird flu? Just before Trump takes over.
I find all of this very confusing. I do not understand Trump's tariffs, neither his decision process on how to decide on what they are, nor his end purpose on what they are supposed to achieve. However much I may want to comment, either* intelligently or sarcastically on them they change too quickly. I do not envy anyone whose job depends on understanding and dealing with them. I am just glad that, for the moment, I do not have to do either.
*Initially 'autocorrected' to "witter" fro some reason.
" I do not understand Trump's tariffs, neither his decision process on how to decide on what they are, nor his end purpose on what they are supposed to achieve."
Neither does the Orange Fuckwit.
A toddler does a far better job of explaining themselves after being let loose with some crayons and finger paint.
I can at least answer ‘what are they supposed to achieve’, what he wants is a ‘train’ of foreign leaders pitching up, 'desperate to make deals' and stroking his ego, and it has just not happened!
Because that’s all he cares about, personal glory, unfortunately for everyone else in the US*, tough, isn't interested in you, doesn’t really acknowledge that you even exist, claims he does, but actions speak louder than words, no? So what does he do if and when the rest of the world simply says, err no?
Of course in the real world all sorts of backroom deals will be made between countries and the US, some may well be temporarily advantageous to the US and others won’t be - Trump will, however claim all of them as a personal victory.
However powerful or influential you think you are, as a famous ex-PM of the UK once stated that ‘you can’t buck the markets’, it doesn’t matter what you want or believe, eventually it crashes up against reality, if people don’t want to buy your goods, don’t want to deal with you because they don’t trust you, don’t believe in what you are offering, then that’s it, you can’t compel them to.
* Billionaires excepted, he may have your interests at heart, well as long as you continue to give him money, pamper him etc. At least for now, of course if it were to go hideously wrong, then he will blame said billionaire and call for guillotines to be set up.
Because that’s all he cares about, personal glory, unfortunately for everyone else in the US*, tough
...
* Billionaires excepted
I can just hear the great Earth Kitt singing:
"It don't take billions to get me to care -
I've even been nice to a poor millionaire."
Link: https://genius.com/Eartha-kitt-if-i-cant-take-it-with-me-when-i-go-lyrics
And as a bonus: Old fashioned girl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeRSqekHh1g
(Where's the 'Classic culture' icon when you need it?)
You are rationalising.
Truth is that Krasnov is a Russian asset and ultimately what is going to happen is in hands of Russia.
Their play is to create maximum chaos and damage to the Western economies, so they will have even harder sell when it comes to investment in defence and public acceptance etc.
When Jose Raoul Capablanca was 6 years old, his father was Captain of the local garrison. Jose had not been taught to play chess, but watched his father play a few times against a subordinate. After one game which his father claimed to have won, the young Jose corrected him and said he had cheated*. Daddy was NOT pleased at this, and claimed the Jose didn't even know how to play. Jose riposted that he could beat his father (only a six-years-old could get away with this) - and he did, three times in succession. Still a child he beat Marshall, the US champion in a match where he refuted**, over the board, an attack that Marshall had been preparing in secret for months.
*His father had moved a knight to a square of the same colour it had started from.
** Correct usage of "refuted" which actually means to demonstrate the falsity of something, rather than merely to reject it.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
― H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe
These tarrifs are in line with all previous T behavior, normal people are not the audience.
He has two audiences, his blind fans (who will suffer, but are blind to its causes), and his billionaire buddies.
When he says I'll make you rich, he's talking to his billionaire buddies who pay to play.
If you look at the records, it's working out quite well for them.
He doesn't need to please his base right now, because no republican opposes him, and there's no elections in the next few months.
The level of blatant corruption is worse than what you expect in a picture perfect kleptocracy.
The headlines' only effect on the remaining normal section of the population is then to induce shock, confusion, misery.
The truly scary scenario for those of us not directly affected, is to imagine what would happen if he and his team become competent in their malignant objectives.
Now it's still a glorified heist with very short term greed driven objectives, and his fellow autocrats are laughing at the incompetence.
"If you look at the records, it's working out quite well for them.”
But is it though? What, on paper is Elon worth now compared to last month? And yes, I know it’s all just paper worth, ie effectively nothing, but still?
Every single billionaire are billionaires not because they have a Scrooge McDuck -style swimming pool full of cash or secret vaults full of gold, they have shares in companies that, in theory, are worth $x - in theory!
So far he’s managed to completely upset the Stock Market, and investors really don’t bother too much about the politics of the incumbent of the White House, that can be predicted, anticipated, a known thing which can be worked around; they care about stability, something in short supply now!
"The truly scary scenario for those of us not directly affected, is to imagine what would happen if he and his team become competent in their malignant objectives."
You only need to look at Ukraine to see what happens when a kleptocrat has stolen everything in his own country. Trump has looked and learned from the master and is already eyeing up his next heists.
I was a consultant (mostly enterprise storage but various other IT related stuff too) to Fortune 500 companies for a couple decades. I took a "break" after my dad died in 2018 to help my mom and deal with some issues related to a business I was invested in, then when covid hit I decided to make that semi-retirement permanent. I still keep in touch with some of the guys I know from my consulting days and they'll occasionally try to tempt me out of retirement.
I touched base with a few of them over the weekend asking how they're doing, if they're keeping busy, that sort of thing and one had the project he just started on put on pause for an unspecified period and he's assuming it is canceled, and a couple others have heard about the same happening with huge projects (budgets of tens of millions) because colleagues they keep in touch with are asking them if they know if any new opportunities since the rug has been pulled out of the project they were on.
Combine this with the cratering consumer confidence and anyone who doesn't think this is all pointing to a deep recession is fooling themselves. Even if Trump caved on everything or took token concessions to claim as "victory" I think that path is set in stone, because no one will trust that he doesn't bring back tariffs if the mood strikes him.
Feeling very happy that in my retired status I don't have to deal with this uncertainty, I remember having a huge project at Goldman Sachs I was due to start in weeks canceled immediately after 9/11, and opportunities were a lot thinner on the ground for a year or two after the financial crash. This might be worse than both for people in the consulting biz, and no picnic for employees once it leads to layoffs and fewer companies hiring.
Errr.... His people are already working on ways to allow him to run again in 2028 and 2032 and 2036. Listen to Steve Bannon. He is supremely confident of Trump winning again in 2028.
Trump/MAGA has already shown pure contempt for the Constitution.
The biggest problem with Trump from a business perspective is that Donold *likes* uncertainty and real business leaders *hate* it. Donold thinks all business is like the real estate business, and creating churn in that market can lead to great opportunities... but an awful lot of real estate transactions are just paper: company A sells a building to company B and nothing changes on the ground (until company B implements their new maintenance plan, which usually involves less maintenance and more explanations about how that's good).
There's an interesting rumor that the former governor of the bank of England is responsible for some of the recent walk-backs from Trump... allegedly he threatened to sell and coordinate a global sale of US treasury bonds. The fact that he's now the PM of Canada is integral to the allegations!
Isn’t it weird that, amongst all this chaos, the MAGAists on this site, the CodeJunkys who’ve tried to persuade us that the orange goon is a genius, have gone a bit… quiet?
In their favour, they at least expose themselves to a diversity of views by reading sites like TheRegister (even if only to try to convince us of their far right propaganda). I find it baffling that so many people are truly lost though, with no exposure to a diversity of opinion, who lap up the propaganda and lies of Fox with no counterbalance. It’s the only explanation I can think of for why Trump is still so popular in America.
"why Trump is still so popular in America."
That's really fucking easy, education and religion are the reasons.
Because most of the population are thick and your education system seems to hold "football" (in the usa it's actually handball, they are that thick) as the main school activity. ( for other countries it's cricket, football (the real one), etc).
to enhance the effect religion pretends it's just as valid as science, rather than religion just being fairy tales from goat herders from 1800 years ago
you end up with a lazy stupid population that allows fox style (UK = GBNEWS/sky news, austrialia = sky news ) propaganda to convince the people that nazi facists want to help people.
And that's why humanity is fucked in the long term.
>why Trump is still so popular in America
There's the propaganda, the lies, and the media bubbles, but I wish it was that simple. Non-Trump forces need to make a much better effort at understanding the motivations behind MAGAists, if they want to have a chance at getting through to them, or at least at preventing them from expanding further. The dismissive approach is not working.
I don't have answers, but it's not my job. What worries me is that I see people whose job should be to figure this out, and by and large they aren't even trying. Just staring slack-jawed as nation after nation votes far-right, regardless of whether traditional governments have done good or bad, regardless of whether the economy is up or down, regardless of whether immigration is high or low.
Dammit, philosophers, journalists and political scientists, telling me "oh, they're all stupid and/or brainwashed" is not cutting it; do better. It's not like this is the first time we see this happening. You still don't have any ideas on how to stop it before it goes really bad? If business as usual isn't persuasive enough, maybe it's time to come up with something that's not business as usual, but not stark raving lunacy either?
"Isn’t it weird that, amongst all this chaos, the MAGAists on this site, the CodeJunkys who’ve tried to persuade us that the orange goon is a genius, have gone a bit… quiet?"
I think that says more about you than me. I havnt gone quiet and have commented against Trumps tariffs (not on this thread but there are so many repetitive articles on Trumps tariffs). That you have to dream up some straw man and put my name on it is your problem not mine.
Who is making money from Ancient Orange's on/off/on/off tariffs? Somebodies are making a killing from the stock-markets yo-yo every time he spouts yet another pronouncement.
Personally I am so bored of hearing about him and his drivel that I am starting to switch off the news and regularly avoid articles like this one.
And that's what Trump and MAGA want you to do - turn off and tune out. It's the wrong thing for non-MAGA people to do, it allows the MAGA nutters to further their destructive agenda. Where possible, stand up and be counted, or at least keep abreast of the news. Knowledge is power, even it's knowledge of bad deeds - no, especially if it's about bad deeds!
Global supply Chain have to be redesigned.
Corporations should not race to the bottom for cheap labor. It won't work anymore and might work for lower value goods.
All tech and higher value goods have to provide jobs and it would be near shored or brought inhouse.
To reduce the costs, more automation would be used including robots and AI.
Poorer countries will be severely affected and there will be more migration to the richer countries.
The richer countries should stop interfering in the poor countries for their wealth. eg.Venezule. in the name of freedom, the sanctions and embargo cost the country
The problem is not the corporations but the city/stock markets.
Any company that does not perform at the bottom line will find its share price tanking and ripe for a cheap and easy takeover by vultures who will just strip and discard the carcass.
Americans voted to preserve the jobs and for national security.
Other countries don't have any right to preach.
Look, I'll grant that my fellow USAians are dumber than a box of rocks. I knew of the DonOLD in the eighties, and he was a NYC joke then, too.
The Apprentice show took the turd, polished it and the moronic tv-addicted masses thought it was a diamond. But whatever they claim, national security and jobs were way down on the list. The real reason I have heard (I live in a red area in a blue state) is the hatred of new immigrants, who they seem to believe are ALL undocumented, even if they have refugee or other legal status, and the irrational belief that T**** can wave a wand and the 1950s will magically appear, when every woman was June Cleaver and vacuumed (hoovered) wearing heels and pearls, and men looked like the Marlboro Man. That factory jobs will be plentiful and well-paid (without pesky unions, of course!). That Latinos will all go away south except when they come back to mow lawns and pick vegetables, blacks will go back to shining shoes and not be president, women will be barefoot and repeatedly pregnant, and gays, unless they can play piano like Liberace and Elton, will go back in the closet.
The MAGAts near me are still trying to pretend they are "winning", and are genuinely astonished that liberals are not crying, except with laughter at their rage. If they were actual winners, why aren't they happier?
Did Brexit "winners" look and sound this sour when they "won"?
"Did Brexit "winners" look and sound this sour when they "won"?"
Well in the UK the Brexshitters main crys seem to be:
1. this isn't the brexshit we voted for
2. Brexshit hasn't happended yet
3. brexshit was amazing it allowed us to get the vaccine early (A flat out lie as usual, that the majority of brexshitters don't want to take as they are also anti-vax nutters)
For a full list see any fartrage statement and richard tice (the guy in parliment who is now a dubai immigrant, who hates immigrants )
Did Brexit "winners" look and sound this sour when they "won"?
Yes, a defining feature is they will never be happy. They are still unhappy eight years after the referendum even though they got precisely what they wanted and the political class is still too scared to return in any meaningful way.
"Yes, a defining feature is they will never be happy. They are still unhappy eight years after the referendum even though they got precisely what they wanted and the political class is still too scared to return in any meaningful way."
Amazingly the responses of how upset brexiters are seem to only come from remainers. Brexiters typically happy with leaving.
No need for you to speak for us you will only get it wrong
Well.....
With something like 8 different flavours of Brexit on offer the Clod Cameron made it a simple (and supposedly advisory) "remain" or "leave".
So naturally nearly everyone was going to say "But this is not the Brexit we wanted."
Tough s**t. That's exactly the Brexit you were going to get though.
Remember Rupert Murdoch and the $ he spaffed on Theranos?
Anyone can be gullible, like the banjos that Dom Cumins played like the Conductor of the Banjo Orchestra.
What really hurts them is having to admit they were played so easily. But the only way to avoid being played again is to do so.
@Dan 55
"Brexit regret among Leave voters hits record high, poll finds"
The independent ironically named of course. Of course coming up to 2016 it was such a slam dunk certainty to remain as the polls showed that we had a referendum! And you guys are still crying about the result.
not crying, facing the reality of how fucking stupid you were believing a fucking liar paid by putin.
on the other hand a lot of brexshitters keep whining they didn't get what they voted for, and then there's the more idiotic ones pretending it's gone great (see your replies for a prime examples).
@AC
"Why do they keep going on about the EU and immigrants then? Triggered by every mention of the EU."
You may not be aware but there were at least 5 posts going on about brexiters being unhappy before I chipped in. Even when the topic has nothing to do with it remoaners cant help themselves but keep moaning (see this conversation thread).
"Also why did the main architects of Brexit call it a failure?"
He didnt. But well done for trying.
@AC
"do you need a video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzfxGptsdGo"
I recommend your own video there to explain that not only you are wrong but you are very wrong. About 180 degrees wrong. I knew it would be that example you provided, it made a great soundbite for remoaners that lasted until someone just watches what he actually said.
"even though they got precisely what they wanted"
I'm not sure about that. What exactly was it that they wanted? Did they all want the same thing? As someone else said, many complain it wasn't the Brexit they voted for. The thing is they weren't offered anything beyond leaving the EU and each of them had their vision of what that would have been and that was the Brexit they thought they'd voted for. Excepting a few who wanted to leave the EU as their sole objective I doubt many did get that Brexit.
The US is losing. Killing its long-term prospects, it's universities, and eventually it's status as the world's reserve currency.
Canada here - haven't bought ANYTHING made in the USA or from a business headquartered in the USA the last few months. Actually saving a bit on food, because Canadian-produced brands are either the same price or less, and better quality, so buy-bus American junk food.
For computer peripherals, I'm willing to pay twice the price to buy from non-American companies. And I'm not going to get a new cpu/gpu/etc for a few years anyway - my 2 most recent builds are good for another decade.
Everything else is local anyway, or available from Mexico/the EU/South America, so all your president has done is pissed off the rest of the world.
This is the sort of stain that will take a generation to disappear, if you're lucky, because it's obvious America can't govern itself.
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