Re: @Blazde - Not an issue
I largely agree, there is a good chance that Russia could follow other Eastern European countries into the 'Western' fold sooner rather than later, and that would be beneficial for all parties, except China. You only need to talk to Russians (especially those who came of age post-Soviet era) to see the cultural similarities. They're a bit big-headed because of their country's history, but no more so than Yanks or Brits, and no less hungry for freedom. Putin is the obstacle and the one that gets the hate, not Russians in general, and he does what he does precisely because he fears a pro-European revolution in Russia. He had years of opportunity to align with Europe & NATO if he wanted but his paranoia and intolerance for other ex-Warsaw Pact countries shaking off Russian influence prevented it. He threw what few cards he had left away finally in 2022. It won't happen now until he's gone, and then it's a roll of the dice who takes over.
The trouble with the idea that this is Trump's goal is that he's not showing it. Almost 50 months into his presidency it's wishful to think it is. He uses his relationship with Putin for petty domestic gain. There is no grand strategy playing out, it's just minute-by-minute divisiveness. Any opportunity to claim the media are lying is taken. Any opportunity to call his Democrat predecessors stupid isn't missed. I'm not sure it's in his gift anyway but you can't pull off a historic realignment of a recent superpower while you're fighting a pointless culture war at home, and everybody outside your country - particularly Putin - thinks you're just a numpty with a fragile ego who can be easily manipulated. I don't think he's stupid either in a general sense but he is out of his depth when it comes to geopolitics because it's not what he spent any part of his life studying. And unlike, say Reagan, Trump indeed doesn't listen closely enough to those who have spent their life studying it (with differing agendas sure, but still a crowd-source of pro-US agendas). If he comes out next week with "Putin has agreed to stand down and take exile in North Korea as part of a peace treaty" I'll eat my hat, but seriously?
If anyone had this strategy it was Macron. He stayed engaged with Putin long after others had given up, and he's always understood that you need to negotiate from a position of strength and respect to both build trust and defeat Putin's manipulative tendencies. But he couldn't pull it off and even today Putin is burning bridges insulting him. He'll be long gone before Putin's successor arrives but whoever picks up that torch has a shot at bringing Russia in from the cold then. I'm sure there'll be plenty of candidates because the stakes are high.
Trump keeps getting elected because people think there must be some strategy behind the crazy. There isn't. He's just created that fiction by fronting the Apprentice, commissioning a book, and repeating unachievable aims over and over confidently. He's the world's most successful propagandist, nothing more.