US stocks slip as Trump pulls trigger on Canada, Mexico, China tariffs US stock markets have dipped after President Donald Trump confirmed the imposition of a 25 percent tariff on most goods coming into America from Canada and Mexico, and an extra ten percent tariff on China. "Tomorrow the tariff of 25 percent on Canada and 25 percent on Mexico and that'll start," Trump said during a Monday press …
The US has some potash production, not sure if it's enough.
On the other hand..
The US is the 2nd or 3rd largest producer of phosphates in the world and has
one of the biggest mines in the world. Soo while not exactly the same, is still
just as necessary and gives the US a big bargaining chip.
BUT...I also don't know enough about the subject.
Cheers
I'm gonna guess this is a violation of the US/Mexico/Canada agreement, which was negotiated by Trump...
He doesn't feel any need to honor previous agreements. And this is an excellent reason why Zelenskyy should walk away from the minerals agreement. Trump will never honor it.
Honestly, I can't think of any reason why any country would sign a trade agreement with us right now.
It's all for show - but the spectacle is progressively less engaging as it is constantly repeated.
Shock and awe is a limited tactic that should be used sparingly to achieve actual and lasting results. Trump has no goal except to build up his profile as someone who is prepared to throw America's weight about. At present, he's doing it over trivia and by the time he actually wants something substantive, the rest of the world is simply going to give a collective shrug and deploy the usual retaliation.
It's all for show
Except it's not. He literally renegotiated NAFTA to USMCA, and as soon as another shiny object caught his attention he ignored it. He's abusing his tariff authority 'defending the country', and even when they make concessions he comes back and attacks again when the mood suits him. It's like paying off ransomware.
The problem isn't that Canada and Mexico aren't doing enough, it's that they aren't kissing his ass to suit him. For us average citizens, we'll get to pay for his vanity. Potentially for generations. The day could come when other countries decide 'the juice ain't worth the squeeze' when trying to sell to us. If tariffs push us into a recession, the general public will need to stop buying lots of stuff, which will make us a smaller market and much easier to replace.
BTW, for a lot of small purchasers (think Temu and eBay purchasers), tariffs aren't the biggest problem. The uncertainty around de minimis is. Many times even a 20-25% tariff will still be cheaper than buying the same thing from a US seller. But if there is also a ~$40 administrative fee per package, the buyers have to go back to the middlemen. That doesn't necessarily reduce imports. It just means a middleman like Amazon gets to add their tax on the consumer.
Trump is a weird phenomina.
He says he is going to do outrageous things and sane people hear this and are horrified. They think he is mad and dangerous, but cannot actually bring themselves to believe he woud actually do these things.
When he actually does what he said he is going to do (a good thing in other circumstances) the rational amongst us are horrified yet again and still struggle to believe that he has gone as far as he said he would.
When will this self inflicted self flagilation end?
Precisely!
"When Trump introduced the tariffs last month the official explanation was, as well as the aforementioned drive to on-shore manufacturing, that neither Canada nor Mexico was doing enough to stop drugs and illegal immigrants from entering the US."
This "emergency" is the orange fascist's "Gleiwitz incident".
In fact, its a real rarity that the Orangeutan would actually to something he promised to do. I don't expect that these tariffs will last for long - when he or his cronies notice they are destroying the economy, there will look for a quick exit - most likely once again in exchange for not much from Canada, Mexico, etc, followed by loud crowing about how brilliant his move was: Thats "the art of the deal". What a genius.
Mostly I think he would sacrifice most anything to continue to keep the attention on his person - thats our cross to bear for probably the next 4 years.....
> I don't expect that these tariffs will last for long - when he or his cronies notice they are destroying the economy, there will look for a quick exit
The new tariffs could be cancelled tomorrow, but the knock-on effects will take months, if not years to settle. Look at how long it took for the disruption from Coronavirus to settle; arguably, things are still settling, some four years later.
Then too, the american businesses which these tariffs are meant to be helping are pretty much screwed every which way.
In the short term, they're going to have significantly higher production costs. Which means that their revenue and/or profit margins are going to drop.
So, they're going to have to cut costs (aka: fire employees) while deciding what to do next.
If they think that the tariffs are going to be short-term, they can maybe try to hang on as-is. But that'll leave them exposed to the risk that some other company may be able to spin up local infrastructure and undercut their prices.
On the other hand, if they think the tariffs are going to be around for a long time, they can invest in their own local infrastructure. However, this generally carries a significant upfront cost, and takes time to get up to speed; Tesla's gigafactories allegedly take around 18 months to build, plus another 15 months to reach full production capacity.
(Equally, from a wider economic perspective: any new infrastructure will generally attempt to minimise costs through automation, so there's not going to be any significant boom in employment; a company may hire just one person to do the job that (pre-offshoring) ten people previously did. And that's assuming you can find skilled staff without also investing heavily in training and education![*])
Worse, even if you do manage to secure funding, build your infrastructure and find people to staff it, your production costs are probably still going to be higher than those of your offshore rivals. So you'll struggle to export your product, especially if the countries you're trying to sell to have imposed equivalent tariffs to those currently being applied by the USA.
And if the US tariffs are dropped at some point in the future, you'll be completely shafted: your products will be too expensive to export, while you're also simultaneously being undercut by imports.
Any which way you look at things, it's likely to be a bumpy ride!
[*] To quote https://www.trade.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/2019ReinvestmentReport.pdf:
[For Carey Manufacturing] The costs of reshoring, particularly the costs associated with new capital equipment, were high [and] may require five to six years to see a return on investment.
...
Edgewell [...] created an estimated 160 jobs in Dover (fewer than the number of jobs in [the offshore factory] due to efficiencies gained)
...
Edgewell continues to have difficulty finding mechanics and machine operators in the United States. At the Dover facility, Edgewell only hired one engineer from the local area, and several jobs remain unfilled after three and a half years.
...
QED noted that it has had difficulty finding workers with the appropriate level of technical training as well as soft skills. The company has noticed this labor challenge in the overall U.S. labor market as well.
I guess in this context we should discuss the microtargeting of ads that is enabled by social networks.
Parties effectively are able to transport completely different messages ( important to the target) to different targets.
These messages do not have to be consistent or describe the policy a party plans to enact as a whole, as only the targeted individuals will see them.
This is a very powerful weapon to have a lot of people vote on a lot of "other issues" for the same guy...
Indeed, it was a big issue with Brexit, demographic data from social media companies allowed micro targeted ads which were tailored to push the buttons of people who they deduced could be swayed to vote leave.
The ads were often utter lies and leveraged the half-truths and outright lies the UK media had been allowed to get away with for decades (bendy bananas, the infamous Boris Johnson lie) to hit the emotions of those people and once you have convinced someone on an emotional level, it's an absolute bugger of a job to change their mind with facts and truth.
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They won't, but, in the scheme of things, the people who actually have nothing are a tiny minority and this will destroy the people who are just about keeping their nostrils above water.
It will hurt an awful lot of people and drag them down into poverty while the rich, super rich and billionaires get richer.
"And after 4 years of chaos there will be opportunities to rebuild the system better."
Lets say I accept your argument, for arguments sake, what STATES that the 'opportunities' will be taken !!!
The system has not been improved to date, even though the 'faults' are clear to see therefore there is NO rush to improve things.
When Trump goes the chaos will be reduced and the urgency will be less ... therefore STILL no change !!!
The US of A is damned by its own political system ... people with money *control* the people who seek political power, it has been this way for generations.
The 'people' vote but the 'power' stays where it always has been ... with the money !!!
The latest people with power are the MegaTech companies ... they are spending Billions to 'stroke' Trumps ego to ensure that their profits are safe now & in the future.
The usual financial 'Wizards' are financing the 'right' people to protect their money/investments during the latest Pres47.
Lots of noise and 'shock & awe' from Pres47 BUT the real power is safe and secure ... as always !!!
Trump is a short term problem that the real powerful people will live with, in the short-term, BUT if he gets too noisy the problem will be 'dealt' with !!!
:)
“ Trump said such a deal was emblematic of his campaign to bring manufacturing back to America after decades of offshoring, and will mean TSMC is exempt from tariffs.”
After decades of off-shoring *by US Companies*.
Fixed that for Tangoman.
Ask Tim ‘paid for inauguration VIP seats’ Cooke for example how many iPhones/Ipads have ever been made in USA.
Gosh, we really are in a Kakistocracy. It's a word that we in the US better get used to using. We really put the dumb in Free-dumb, and with a few exceptions like Texas representative Crockett, it's pretty clear why eggs have gone up--all the chickens are in the GOP senate and house. (I'm sure someone else has used that line so I apologize to those who have). It wouldn't shock me to find that he is a Russian agent of Putin's. I wonder how many of those farmers who voted for him are happy about it. It's reminiscent of Jim Jones, and the ones who willingly drank the Koolaid in Georgtown, Guyana. (Not to be confused with those who were forced to drink it, meaning the rest of us in this country).
It wouldn't shock me to find that he is a Russian agent of Putin's.
It's worse - he's doing this because he wants to. Trump wants to suck up to Putin because Trump admires strong men and dictators - he sees them as he wants to be seen in the world; all-powerful and with people fighting with each other to catch his eye and get his blessing.
Trump really is a manifestation in US form of an autocratic dictator - he believes he's the best businessman in the world, he believes he's on some kind of quest to save the country and that only he can do it, and he now believes that God has told him that by sparing him from the assassin's bullet.
So he thinks he's right in everything he's doing and that by everyone that matters agrees with him, and everyone who doesn't agree with him doesn't matter and must be squashed as he careers down the path of righteousness (as he sees it). This means that it's going to be extremely difficult to do any kind of business with him because whatever "clever" thing he thinks up in the moment (or has implanted in his brain by his aides) is the Right Thing To DoTM and that anyone who disagrees is therefore wrong and stupid and is to be belittled.
Because other autocrats behave in the same way (example how Putin and his close allies speak about political "rivals" in the other political parties that they allow to exist, like the Communists) Trump wants to emulate them, but doesn't have the tools to do so in the way that they do. So he's now spending his time trying to build those tools - lack of challengers in positions of authority, a (mostly) loyal military (although the military's loyalty to Putin in Russia is in question - see the rebellion of Prigozhin and how most national guard commanders "lost their phones" or "were on vacation" or "were on the road with no phone signal" until just after the mutiny was paused by Putin's TV statement), suppression of dissenting media, appointment of sympathetic judges, a weak or deadlocked parliamentary chamber, lack of governmental capacity to resist or slow down the plan etc etc.
The problem for Trump though is that he's too dumb to realise that the people he's put into positions of authority, that he thinks are loyal to him, really aren't. JD Vance is an accolyte but wants to be President in 4 years which means if Trump tries to carry on then Vance is out of luck, with no role except to be the eternal deputy. Hegseth and Rubio are outwardly loyal but deeply disagree with the direction Trump is taking on Ukraine so may at some point stage a rebellion, and Elon Musk (the de facto Head of Government whilst Trump is Head of State) is off operating to his own plan with scant regard for what Trump actually wants to do, and if Trump challenges him on something or tries to rein him in at any point there's likely to be an almighty explosion which may wreck the whole thing.
Putin is currently only in power because he's had 34-odd years to sculpt the government so that only he is the source of all power, he has to personally deal with any division between his senior ministers and make a ruling one way or another, and he knows this, which is why he's keeping the same aides and heads of departments despite the fact that they're all now getting into their 70s (well past the mandatory retirement age but Putin can of course exempt them) and several of them have been begging him to let them retire for upwards of 5 years now. He doesn't want to let in new blood because either he'll annoy the next generation (who are now in their late 50s and early 60s) by bypassing them and going for the generation after them (whom he can more easily groom via advancement and preference, and who will likely stick around until Putin dies - he won't retire as being President is his only guarantee of keeping his current lifestyle and benefits, and possibly ability to breathe), or he can go for the next generation and have people who have their own opinions and powerbase loyal to them, and who may or may not remain loyal to him for the long term if they think they can take power.
Trump is trying to speed-run the creation of this governmental system but he likely won't succeed because there are still too many unbiased judges in lower courts, the Constitution is still in place and certain bits of it (like the amendment on Presidential term limits) are unambiguous, the military still has a backbone and won't want to actually invade and fight an ally like Denmark/Greenland, Canada, or Mexico (Panama is debatable), regardless of which generals he puts in charge, and at some point the Republican party will get fed up of him either deliberately or inadvertently targeting their voter base (like the veterans he's currently throwing out of jobs at the Veterans Administration) and will move to rein him in a bit, at which point the divisions in the party and between the party and Trump will become starkly clear. This may take months though (up to 18 of them until they start getting twitchy about their re-election chances at the midterms) so buckle up for the ride for now.
In a similar vein, I like how he was crowing about how US citizens are now going to have to buy US made cars, rather than Chinese or whatever. Handily ignoring the fact that he's put tariffs on the aluminum and steel, so any US manufacturer is going to have to pass that on to the customer, making US cars just as expensive as the alternatives. Way to go.
And as a product manufacturer from outside the US, who cannot move complete supply chains at will - once you have completed your US-plant after several years - you find out, that you now pay a 25% tax on most of your Tier-1 parts and materials, so you effectively are not able to sell your products any cheaper compared to paying tax on whole cars.
So there is a "first mover problem"
Plus, you then pay additional retilatority taxes of other countries when exporting your products from the U.S.
Plus, you now own a plant in a country, that has been destabilized by sky-high inflation, social unrest, a weakened economy, weakened democratic institutions and a weakened rule of law, where checks and balances are mostly gone and the dear leader may do what he wants.
Especially to you, with your brand-new plant.
And ... the policies that made your plant necessary and possible will likely be reversed as soon as the Republicans are tossed out at the next federal election.
All the people who believed the lies will get a wake-up call when they've lost their jobs to DOGE and their medicare payments are cut and their food and car prices have gone through the roof etc. Then there's the people who didn't bother to vote last time because "both the major parties are just the same", but they found out it wasn't true.
Do the Oligarchy reckon that they can drive down wages and enshittify employment conditions sufficiently to sell domestically produced goods at prices which can undercut current producers even with the advantage of tariffs or is the USAnian consumer just going to have to get used to everything being at least 25% more expensive for the foreseeable future?
I can’t help thinking that’s ultimately going to be tough sell once the reality sets in…
Trump just doesn't like the competition against good old US suppliers of drugs, such as that fine young man, Ross Ulbricht, who showed The True American Spirit by setting up the Silk Road website. What a shame he was left imprisoned for a decade before The Donald could get him pardoned, for the sake of Ross's poor old mom.
That's probably actually what he's complaining about actually, since illegal drugs going across the border amount to like 0.2% of US supply according to the US DEA and the insulin smuggling at the international cost price must be costing US company megabucks considering they charge like 15x the actual worldwide retail price to their captive American market.
One wonders if we actually ought to be offering those Americans asylum. The simple fact of the matter is that if they don't get insulin they die, and their government is deliberately pricing cheap medicines available in quantity everywhere else in the world which are absolutely required for life at a level which one could argue approaches the requirements of reducing them to servitude. The situation does comprise multiple violations of the universal declaration of human rights.
the insulin smuggling at the international cost price must be costing US company megabucks considering they charge like 15x the actual worldwide retail price to their captive American market.
I don't know what insulin costs at Canadian and Mexican pharmacies, but it would have to be really cheap for US insulin to be 15x the cost. If you are going for common insulin (R or N), you can get it from Walmart for $25 a vial without a prescription. Novolog (or equivalent) runs about $35. The overpriced versions that are in pens are much more expensive, and should be avoided if you don't have insurance. But some of those will be coming down too, unless Trump rolls back the progress Biden started on drug prices.
Maybe there is a bright side for US farmers?
If the electronics for John Deere suffer due to the tariff war with China, maybe they'll decide to go back to making simpler vehicles, with the mechanical parts from their US factories[1]. The old machinery that the farmers could repair themselves, at a reasonable cost.
[1] JD have factories in China that turn out complete vehicles, but those are AFAIK (from trying to read ag news on websites) not imported into the US. Corrections to that gratefully received.
Maybe there is a bright side for US farmers?
Of course there is, more free time. They won't have the $$$ to buy the fuel to plant all their acres, or the fertilizer to get a good crop.
It won't matter what John Deere produces because the farmers won't be able to afford new equipment.
hoping Canada limits the amount of power it sends south.
Gonna fun watching trumpty explaining why the lights have gone out over so much of his supporters area.
Then again he'll blame 'woke lefties' or "immigrants" or the Ukrainian president for it.
Oh and hes stopped the supply of weapons to Ukraine until their president apologises to him... sheesh Idiocracy was a comedy..... not a guide for presidential behaviour
No one ever said anyone was going to cut people off.
However the NE of the United States will wake up tomorrow and their gas/electric bill will be 10-15% higher...
Good thing the Pres is creating all those jobs, given the rough market -- the reason all those people voted for him. Oh, wait - he's laying off hundreds of thousands? And engaging in economy-stifling behavior that will cost hundreds of thousands more their jobs?
I believe there are multiple separate electrical grids on the North American continent, and they tend to bend more to natural borders than political ones. It was one of the reasons that Texas blacked out a few years ago during the cold snap, because their grid wasn't sufficiently hardened against it and they didn't have great interconnects / agreements with adjacent grids.
I believe there are multiple separate electrical grids on the North American continent
There are interconnected grids, particularly east and west coast. Canada feeds a lot of power into the east coast grid covering New England states.
It was one of the reasons that Texas blacked out a few years ago during the cold snap
Texas' grid has limited connectivity because they don't want to be burdened by federal regulations. It was compounded by the fact that "it never get's cold here" mentality and natural gas facilities either didn't have sufficient heating for their equipment, or if they did it was electric. Grid strained, gas plants froze, electric generation plants had no fuel. Feedback loop brought the whole system crashing down. But lets blame it on ice on the solar panels.
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No one ever said anyone was going to cut people off.
Douggie F did indeed say he'd throw the switch on the electricity output. Between Ontario <Nuclear and Hydro> and Quebec <Hydro> there's a fair bit of overproduction up here that gets sent south. I'll point out that there was a TON of work done to improve interlink and bridge linking after a loose wire between Ohio and Kentucky blew out the grids a few years back, but that work *did not* include boosting the amount of energy the NE US was actually producing. We're building 2 new nuclear plants in Ontario and I believe there may be a third going up in Quebec to bolster our energy stability. The numbers vary by season but we ship about 22% to 35% of the NE US electricity from my reading.
Behold, all ye Trump fans the eloquence of the genius you admire :
"'Reciprocal tariffs start on April 2. And I wanted to make it April 1, but I didn't want to do – I didn't want to go April Fool's Day, because that costs, that costs a lot of money, but that one day. But so we're going April 2."
Something tells me that a great many things are about to go horribly, horribly wrong................
He's gonna raise tariffs on Canada and Mexico because they've already planned on putting up a bunch of tariffs against US goods and that will of course enrage the little orange child tyrant so he'll up those tariffs and they'll up those tariffs.
The problem is that Trump has united Canada's people behind their (previously unpopular) leader in this fight, and the same will be true in Mexico. So even though the trade war will hurt them they will know the blame isn't on their leaders but on Trump, while Trump will have an ever dwindling minority in his corner here as the pain spreads and more and more people are against him on this. So in the end he'll be the one who is forced to blink. I'm sure he'll make up a story about how he "won" but everyone but his supporters with the smoothest brains will know he's lying.
Gotta love that a guy who was elected on bringing down prices is going to ignite the biggest inflationary spike in the US since the late 70s, maybe ever, before he's forced to throw in the towel.
This is the funniest bit. Trudeau was, electorally speaking, a dead man walking, together with his party.
The Canadian version of MAGA heads were looking at a cakewalk. Had Orange-Utan just waited a few months, he would have had a bunch of sycophants in power up north. They might have handed him the whole country on a platter.
FFS, he made the Quebecois feel Canadian! That takes some doing.
MAGA lissencephaly notwithstanding, blinking or backing down are not in his nature. As someone who has no standard for truth, the very idea that he is wrong is oxymoronic. He will bang this drum until even his supporters stop listening because of the manifest stupidity of it all, then he'll become distracted and move on to the next shiny idea that he'll call his own. Standard operating procedure.
The only thing that stands any chance of reversing his course is when it becomes too painful to sustain for Republicans in the House who have about six months before everything becomes about the midterms. Even then, a) they'll have to work behind the scenes, because overtly undoing any decision handed down from on high is treason; or b) they'll have to impeach him themselves.
He won't call it backing down. He'll seize on some small thing they did or he imagines they did and claim THEY backed down and he won. The morons who sport the red hats believe whatever sewage spews from his vomit hole, but fortunately that's only about half of the people who voted for him. A lot of them just voted "republican" and he was there, or voted because they are pissed about inflation. They are not going forgive him or the republican party that enabled him, when inflation jumps way up because of him no matter how much he tries to say it was somehow Biden's fault.
Indiana Jones only shot the guy because Harrison Ford had dysentery that day and couldn't do the planned sword fighting moves, which somehow seems appropriate, when comparing the outcome if he had tried to do the moves with the river of absolute effluent which is currently emanating from the white house.
As China will retaliate by putting tariffs on US agricultural goods which represent around $30,000,000,000, China being the largest export market for US farmers, I guess that yes, they will have fun.
Many Americans, including this one, do not support Trump. 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico are going to hurt the US economy as much as it will hurt Mexico's and Canada's economies. Trump puts down others. Those that he puts down then look for a reasonable compromise, then he goes after them again. Also the way he treated Zelensky from the Ukraine is shameful for Americans and also for the Western world. The US has done a lot of good in the world over the years and also a lot of not so good things. Trump is ruining in a month and a half all of the good things. In terms of technology, the prices of stuff in the US will go up, Computers, cell phones, TVs, and other things. The US consumer will pay more for goods while the rich get tax cuts. The Trump and Musk administration is shameful. It will probably cause a US recession soon. Sad!
Let's simplify: two manufacturers, one in the US and one in, say, China. Both make & sell a similar product. It's a competitive market so if one drops their price, the other cuts costs, takes a hit on margins - whatever - in order to stay in the game. The reverse is also true: if your competitor puts their prices UP, you broadly follow with your own price lifts because it'd be downright foolish not to (quite literally) profit from the situation.
Tariffs inflate the cost of goods (and thus the sticker price) of the competitor's products. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what happens to the end user price of the domestic equivalent.
Good luck folks.
Depends who you are. If you are a big agro business or a Chinese billionaire wanting to acquire some land then bankrupting small is great. Especially if your company sells farmland and your boss can hand out subsidies to the new owners.
If you are a gazillionaire hoping to pick up some stocks, or the Island of Hawaii, cheap - then a recession is a good buying opportunity
All 43 pounds of it?
From CNN: Federal statistics show US border authorities seized 21,889 pounds of fentanyl in the 2024 fiscal year. Of that amount, 43 pounds were seized at the Canadian border — about 0.2% — compared with 21,148 pounds at the Mexican border, about 96.6%.
I am past disgusted by president Musk and his cofeve boy, have not voted for a Republican for maybe twenty years. (we used to have a really competent County Clerk, but when she retired, it's been a clown show). I don't recognize my country anymore.
See this is the thing people don't understand about Freedom - it's all very well saying that you are free to speak or free to own firearms or free to follow whatever religion you choose, and those are important things, but true Freedom also comes from freedom from want (whether that's food, clothing, medical care, or other basic human necessities) or freedom from fear (of losing your job on a whim, of becoming destitute, of being attacked or killed or arbitrarily arrested etc). This area is where overall America has been lacking in the past, and which is being further destroyed now.
Everyone loses.
Prices will go up in the US, rational people need to remind MAGA every day of each instance. Fentanyl will keep flowing and killing people. Muricans are now part of the Axis of Evil, and need to be called russian stooges daily.
Prices in Canada will go up until they can substitite US imports, for instance by getting even closer to the EU; they will probably also find other markers now open to them, as people around the world stop buying US products, not just Teslas. Slogan: "From Canada, not the Axis of Evil".
Mexico wil be hard hit as its economy depends 80% on trading with the US, it also imports 60% of its fuel, and even remittances from Mexican workers in the US are falling, as apparently people are hiding to avoid getting deported, which means a double whammy for agriculture in the US; and yet it has even worse problems, with no democracy as the government has been privatized in the hands of incompetent thieves in cahoots with cartels, who are at war with each other; and they destroyed the judiciary, so contracts are worthless.
The EU will need to quickly form a NATO alternative without the US and support Ukraine on its own; it has the means as well as the political will to do so. It should also look into turning the Euro into the world's reserve currency, since the US government is not to be trusted, which would be a serious blow to the US, as it would be unable to keep expanding its debt.
Japan, Australia and New Zealand better get their act together, and quickly.
China seems to be adrift, tariffs will hurt but not as much as it might seem: 3 dresses for $20 will now be $22, still a bargain for whoever buys that.
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