back to article NAND flash prices plunge amid supply glut, factory output cut

NAND flash prices are expected to slide due to oversupply, forcing memory chipmakers to cut production to match lower-than-expected orders from PC and smartphone manufacturers. The superabundance of stock is putting a financial strain on suppliers of NAND flash, according to TrendForce, which says growth rate forecasts are …

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Will we see any price cuts?

    cue sagebush blowing in the wind down main st.

    Like hell we will... quite the reverse, makers will keep prices the same (or even raise them) and bank the profits.

    1. Androgynous Cow Herd

      Re: Will we see any price cuts?

      I disagree.

      Rule #1 in storage - Only by enough to get you through the next purchase cycle.

      Storage ALWAYS is cheaper if you can wait. Recent spot pricing increases in NAND were an aberation in a 30 year cycle that trended relentlessly downward.

    2. RAMChYLD Bronze badge
      Boffin

      Re: Will we see any price cuts?

      I agree. Which is painful and plain stupid. The prices of SSDs have stagnated for several years now and not yet even reach HDD level when it comes to price-per-kilobyte. In fact for certain type of SSDs they seem to have shot up (I was in the market for M.2 NGFF SATA sticks last month because an old laptop I have only supported those and I really wanted to upgrade that laptop. And ridiculously, the prices of a 1TB stick is more expensive than a 1TB M.2 NVMe of the same price). You'd think the prices of M.2 NGFF SATA sticks would be lower owing to their inferior performance compared to M.2 NVMe sticks.

      1. GBE

        Re: Will we see any price cuts?

        the prices of a 1TB stick is more expensive than a 1TB M.2 NVMe of the same price

        Ya lost me there...

      2. collinsl Silver badge

        Re: Will we see any price cuts?

        It's because the older mSATA standard is much rarer nowadays, meaning the controllers etc become less available and thus higher cost as they're not manufactured in such large numbers.

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    OFEC?

    "weak procurement demand from PC and mobile customers."

    Maybe that's because they don't see the point in buying new stuff if it's not better and/or cheaper than what they've got.

    "NAND flash manufacturers have adopted more decisive production cuts, scaling back full-year output to curb bit supply growth. These measures are designed to swiftly alleviate market imbalances and lay the groundwork for a price recovery,"

    Looks like this market has got to a mature stage where competition is, let's say less dog eat dog and more milk the cash cow. Perhaps we'll see an "Organisation of Flash Exporting Countries" setting a bit price on a daily basis to be seen on news service tickers...

    1. Michael Hoffmann Silver badge
      Coat

      Re: OFEC?

      O Fec-kin' hell, don't give them ideas!

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: OFEC?

      Its more like device manufacturers haven't increased storage capacity in ages. The base storage for most phones has been 128GB for aaaaaaaages...and there has been a premium on higher storage for just as long which encourages people to just by the base storage model and cope with it.

      Its the device manufacturers controlling the consumer supply and causing a backlog.

      Perhaps now we'll escape the shitty 128GB doldrums.

      Even on m.2 drives the price jump from 1TB to 2TB has been dumb for quite some time...4TB is outlandish still for what it is.

      The price of flash storage is the only thing keeping hard drives in the game for large storage capacity. If 4TB m.2 drives dropped in price, a whole lot of small business NAS setups would change pretty quickly I think.

  3. Omnipresent Silver badge

    unexpected, but welcome

    This is unexpected, but welcome

    news. I guess we can expect more ram in our apple products, if not a price cut. (wink, wink)

    Would it be because nobody really wants that ai crap would it? No, advertisers and young people always insist on the latest and greatest no matter how awful it is. Just wishful thinking.

    1. GNU Enjoyer
      Angel

      Re: unexpected, but welcome

      >I guess we can expect more ram in our apple products, if not a price cut.

      Such products belong to apple as they're under the complete control of apple.

      Cheaper NAND flash isn't going to get you cheaper RAM, as RAM and flash are different things.

      There will be no price cut, but there might be models with more soldered in storage available.

  4. David Hicklin Silver badge

    Is this really a surprise?

    The world economy is teetering on the brink of an almighty crash, what with people having no money any more and businesses are closing/downsizing all over the place, and trade wars breaking out.

    I think the forecast recovery is optimistic at best but time will see if I'm right

    About the only hope is an acceptable end for all parties to the Ukraine war and the (eventually) resulting drop in oil and gas prices.

  5. OhForF' Silver badge
    FAIL

    10-15 percent growth is a crisis?

    >growth rate forecasts are being revised down from 30 percent to 10-15 percent for 2025.<

    There are still double digit growth rates but that leads to oversupply and problems. Why do marketing departments always forecast exponential growth rates to continue until reality turns up to prove them wrong?

    --> Item for those who predicted 30 percent growth to go on forever

  6. FirstTangoInParis Silver badge

    Quelle surprise

    No we don’t want Windows 11 with or without AI and no we are moving our cloud stuff back on prem.

    And the suppliers didn’t see that coming? Clearly they haven’t been reading El Reg then.

  7. Luiz Abdala Silver badge
    Pint

    Price cut? Yes please.

    I could use a price cut and buy another TB or two in NVME drives... if I got the slots in my motherboard...

    Maybe I can install more games and retire my aging spinning rusties still carrying my music folder, before they expire.

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