back to article There's a slight chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Moon in 2032

There is a chance, albeit slim, that asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the Moon, creating a new crater and an explosion that might just be visible from Earth. The possibility was floated by space boffins in a New Scientist article, and would leave the Moon with a crater measuring anywhere from 500 to 2,000 metres across. The Moon …

  1. ChodeMonkey Silver badge
    Mushroom

    SPACE : 2032

    I hope Mr Musk is aware for his proposed moonbase...

    1. MachDiamond Silver badge

      Re: SPACE : 2032

      "I hope Mr Musk is aware for his proposed moonbase..."

      Elon is promising Mars while sneering at "merely" going back to the moon. (Never mind getting to orbit in one piece).

      1. AVR Silver badge

        Re: SPACE : 2032

        To be fair the Moon looks like a terrible place for anything more than flag-planting, while the poisonous, dimly-lit deserts of Mars have more unknowns. There might yet be something worth having on Mars.

        1. UnknownUnknown

          Re: SPACE : 2032

          Space 1999-like Nuclear Waste facility ???

          Why not ??? …. With the (credit given to Musk/SpaceX for commoditisation of Space launches) it seems a good way to get it off Earth. Hell even ‘return to sender’ it and shoot it into the Sun ??

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: SPACE : 2032

            No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no! You start shooting stuff off of earth like that and before you know it it'll buoy itself out of sun orbit, and the milky way chocolate bar, and to where? The edge of the known and unknown universe ...

            Plus, the earth's space magneto-aerodynamics and gravitational profile will be all different, with that big donut hole in the middle once all that stuff's been shot off of here and into the sun! Way too hazardous for space-highway worthiness IMHO! ;)

        2. MachDiamond Silver badge

          Re: SPACE : 2032

          "To be fair the Moon looks like a terrible place for anything more than flag-planting, while the poisonous, dimly-lit deserts of Mars have more unknowns. "

          The moon could be a good place for some sorts of research and manufacturing. It's relatively close proximity to Earth means that transportation each way isn't constrained to a window of a couple weeks in length every two years like Mars. Anything on Mars isn't likely to be cost effective to bring back to Earth. Having a wisp of atmosphere is hardly good compensation for lower insolation, perchlorate salts all over the place and many of the same problems that there are with the moon such as glass-like dust/fines, CSR's and solar emanations.

          Even if Mars becomes a destination, setting up habitats on the moon and learning how to cope with people living there longish term will be a needed stepping stone. An "oops" epiphany with lunar inhabitants might mean them needing to return back early. For a trip to Mars, it's a write off of an entire crew.

  2. ManInThe Bar

    "The odds of the asteroid impacting the Earth are already vanishingly small – the last best guess was just over 2 percent in December 2032"

    1 n 50 is not vanishingly small.

    1 in 50 is warm up Morgan Freeman and get Robert Duvall out of deep storage.

    1. Michael Strorm Silver badge

      The damage if YR4 hit earth is estimated to be around 8 megatons. (*)

      That's not civilsation-ending big, and if it hit in the middle of nowhere, the effects elsewhere might not that big. OTOH, it could easily destroy most or all of a large city if it hit near enough.

      (*) That's still around 500 times the size of Hiroshima, which *is* large, but not as large as that sounds, since Hiroshima was small (c 0.015 megatons) compared to almost anything from the 50s thermonuclear era onwards. The largest ever nuclear bomb ever exploded, the Tsar Bomba, was around 50 megatons, and that was able to break windows 500 miles away.

      1. UnknownUnknown

        So less impact to the Global Ecosystem than 4 more years of President Tango-man.

      2. Ian Johnston Silver badge

        The damage if YR4 hit earth is estimated to be around 8 megatons. (*)

        That's not civilsation-ending big

        If it hits Washington DC it might be civilisation-saving big. Could the ESA be persuaded to give it a nudge in the right direction, on behalf of humaniy?

        1. collinsl Silver badge

          We'll have enough time to evacuate people from the area IIRC based on trajectory predictions so no real chance of it taking the current US administration out.

          Plus, if there's even the remotest chance of it hitting they'll have Trump somewhere on a plane waiting it out - they don't take any chances.

      3. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        That's nothing, I can break windows from 3000 miles away. If that bug hasn't been patched yet.

        1. logicalextreme

          It hasn't.

      4. MachDiamond Silver badge

        "The damage if YR4 hit earth is estimated to be around 8 megatons."

        Too large of a bomb in one place can be a waste. Take that same 8MT yield and have the mass explode some distance from Earth's surface and it's even worse. This is the mechanism that was used with the bombs dropped on Japan. It they just had a contact fuse, the damage would have been much less. The 50MT "Tsar" bomb turned out to be so big that it pushed atmosphere up and spent a good deal of it's total energy in the wrong direction (from a military standpoint). I don't think I've ever hear tell of where the maximum yield might lie, but I expect that sort of thing isn't going to be widely published. Of course, any government with The Bomb will be able to calculate that for themselves. It's just us peasants that shouldn't know that sort of thing.

        1. midgepad

          dialled down

          The Tsar bomb was said to be 100MT but among the problems that presented was that nobody believed an aircraft could drop it and survive the detonation. So it was adjusted.

          A megaton delivered as 10 warheads rather than one was thought to be harder to intercept, and more damaging, and was said to be a targeting mode for MIRVed missiles.

      5. MichaelGordon

        Current estimates put the size of 2024 YR4 at roughly the same as the Tunguska impactor, so not something you want to be anywhere near if it hits but not an Extinction Level Event either.

        1. MachDiamond Silver badge

          "Current estimates put the size of 2024 YR4 at roughly the same as the Tunguska impactor, so not something you want to be anywhere near if it hits but not an Extinction Level Event either."

          If you define an extinction event as everybody dies, yes. That doesn't mean that there would not be tremendous numbers of deaths and a huge set back to the remaining population.

          A good read is "Quantum Earth" by Dennis E. Taylor. The story begins after introduction of the characters and main storyline with Yellowstone undergoing a massive eruption. Immediately after, nation-states do their worst against each other as they already know the level of impact to the global environment that will follow. Some actions are spiteful vengeance and others are to secure resources. The sad thing is that the narrative is probably the most probable aspect of the whole story. Lucifer's Hammer by Niven and Pournelle is another good look at what might be expected from a large scale catastrophe. Global society is a precariously balanced thing. Too big a push in some direction might topple a great many things.

    2. Sam not the Viking Silver badge

      Soup Dragons Beware

      One in fifty is indeed not vanishingly small. I think someone's dropped a Clanger. They must be told.

      1. UCAP Silver badge
        Coat

        Re: Soup Dragons Beware

        Who must be told - the Soup Dragon?

        (I'll get my coat)

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Soup Dragons Beware

          Iron Chicken! (with documentary evidence)

          1. munnoch Silver badge

            Re: Soup Dragons Beware

            Was I the only one who found the Iron Chicken deeply disturbing?

      2. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

        Re: Soup Dragons Beware

        On the other hand, 49 in 50 odds of it missing is pretty good :-)

        1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: Soup Dragons Beware

          One would prefer better.

        2. UnknownUnknown

          Re: Soup Dragons Beware

          I’m sure Betfred (and other gambling scum) will happily take your money on this one …..

          1. ICL1900-G3 Silver badge

            Re: Soup Dragons Beware

            How weird, down voting the denigration of Betfred and it's ilk.

    3. Jason Bloomberg Silver badge

      I don't consider over 2% vanishingly small either.

      But what worries me is the chance of a hit has nearly doubled from not so long ago. How much more of that do we need before "vanishingly small" enters the "oh shit" part of the spectrum?

      1. MachDiamond Silver badge

        "I don't consider over 2% vanishingly small either."

        If the odds start being stated that it's xx% that it will miss, be afraid, be very very afraid.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        That's why they're going to try to image it with JWST: to improve their guesses.

        I'm not worried about it landing on my house. I just don't give a damn.

      3. Ken Shabby Silver badge
        Alert

        Spectrum Is Brown

      4. midgepad

        complicated...

        The prediction is that the asteroid will cross the earth's orbit at a quite accurately known time, but a less accurately known location. So there is some geometric figure which is at risk, which includes the cross-sections* of the earth and the moon.

        As the accuracy improves, the figure gets smaller.

        But the Earth doesn't.

        So the probability that the asteroid passes through the part of that figure occupied at that moment by the Earth ... increases.

        At some time the figure contracts to not include the Earth, and the risk declines to zeroish, or alternatively the figure contracts to not include anything but the Earth, and the risk rises sharply to unity. Binary, what.

        Whether we can refine it to 0||1 before it provides the worked example I do not know. Probably someone does.

        * Solid, plus atmosphere, plus gravitational effects.

    4. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      It's not vanishingly small, but it is quite small indeed...I wouldn't wager a bet on the asteroid.

  3. KayJ

    The chances of anything hitting the moon are a million to one, I say.

    1. John Robson Silver badge

      Nine times out of ten then

      1. 42656e4d203239 Silver badge
        Happy

        >>Nine times out of ten then

        Nope - well known fact that odds of exactly 1:1,000,000 mean an utter certainty.

        GNU Sir pTerry

        1. collinsl Silver badge

          It was Sir Terry who said "million to one chances occur nine times out of ten"

    2. NickHolland

      Was I supposed to be hearing that sang that in Justin Hayward's voice?

      (for those not catching my probably obscure reference, I'm thinking of Jeff Wayne's 1978 musical version of War of the Worlds)

      1. UnknownUnknown

        Was noted and appreciated ;-)

      2. KarMann
      3. Not Yb Silver badge

        That version of War of the Worlds is so damn 70s... No chance of that being mistaken for a news broadcast.

  4. Pete 2 Silver badge

    Splashback

    > asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the Moon

    And where will the ejecta go?

    Might not be a good time to be in Earth orbit

    1. John Robson Silver badge

      Re: Splashback

      Ejecta will go elsewhere on the moon.

      Escape velocity is a shade under 2.5km/s - that's probably more than the vast majority of the ejecta.

      Then have to get that ejecta to escape in the direction of earth, rather than any other direction... (though escape velocity in that direction will effectively lower...

      Though maybe a little more than I'd expected:

      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103585711931

      1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

        Re: Splashback

        Might be a nice little Saturnine collection of orbiting debris for a few days/weeks/months.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Splashback

      Given the likely size of ejecta, and how far out the moon's gravitational force trumps the gravitational force of the earth, I think that ejecta would likely be pulled back to the moon's surface by lunar gravity.

      In the event that any debris be ejected towards the earth, far enough for earthly gravity to take over, I'd like to think that it would burn up in the earth's atmosphere.

      1. Pete 2 Silver badge

        Re: Splashback

        > I'd like to think that it (debris from hitting the Moon) would burn up in the earth's atmosphere

        Yes. But to get to Earth's atmosphere it has to pass through all the usual orbits inhabited by satellites. Whether geostationary or LEO.

        And we know how worried satellite owners get about the effect of hyper velocity tiny specks hitting their hardware.

        Although we don't know much about this asteroid, a low estimate of its size is 50m diameter. That gives it a volume of 65,000 m³ impacting the Moon at 17km/s.

        That can throw up a lot of dust.

  5. Eclectic Man Silver badge
    Alien

    A bit of luck

    See https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/in-a-first-earthlings-spot-a-meteor-strike-the-eclipse-darkened-moon/ for an image of the eclipsed Moon being hit by a meteorite.

    Lumps of rock hit the Moon quite often, as it has a minimal atmosphere. Small pieces of rock burn up in the Earth's atmosphere.

    1. Ian Johnston Silver badge

      Re: A bit of luck

      <i<Lumps of rock hit the Moon quite often, as it has a minimal atmosphere.</i>

      One just misses Tintin and Captain Haddock in Explorers on the Moon. Hergé knew his stuff.

      1. Mr F&*king Grumpy

        Re: A bit of luck

        that was a HOAX!!!

        1. 42656e4d203239 Silver badge

          Re: A bit of luck

          >>that was a HOAX!!!

          you mean Tintin and Capt. Haddock aren't real?

          It's all made up? a Fiction?

          Say it isn't so... my whole world view has just been smashed... I will have to go off and put tariffs on Belgian goods enetering this sceptered isle... no... wait... that means less beer...

          nurse- dried frog pills! STAT!

  6. Bran Muffin

    Quick!

    Somebody find a dragon's egg!

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Quick!

      Me! Me! Over here! I stepped in one earlier!

      Oh. Dragon. I thought you meant dog.

    2. MachDiamond Silver badge

      Re: Quick!

      "Somebody find a dragon's egg!Somebody find a dragon's egg!"

      Swamp dragon or Noble Dragon?

  7. Owen
    Headmaster

    circularize

    Is "circularize" really a word?

    Of an ex colonial origin I guess. Never mind, we let it (the colony) go.

    Butchering words is about the best industry they have since the poor "septics" have neither their own natural resources c.f. Greenland, Ukraine, nor any decent beaches c.f. Gaza, can't invent anything useful: see Tim Berners Lee (WWW) or Alexander Graham Bell who only became an American in later life

    https://www.songtell.com/richard-thompson/alexander-graham-bell

    1. jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid Silver badge

      Re: circularize

      "Is "circularize" really a word?"

      In astrodynamics, very much yes it's a word. It literally means to turn an elliptical orbit into a circular one. Whether it's spelt with z or s is a discussion I'm going to quietly back away from.

      (Strictly, all orbits are elliptical, but some are close enough to a circle to call them circular)

  8. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

    From: Apollo ALSEP

    Re: Seismograph reading

    BONNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!

  9. tonique
    Boffin

    The probability of 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth is larger than for the Moon. Wikipedia lists (and links to the source), that the current probability of 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth is 2.6 %, i.e. 1:38. The ESA lists as of now the probability as 2.41 % (1:41). IF the asteroid hits the Earth and the shown possible impact line holds, it could destroy the ESA space centre in Kourou, French Guiana, or it could go to central Africa or India or the Atlantic or Indian Oceans.

  10. WereWoof
    Mushroom

    I am sure SHADO are aware ioof this and the Interceptors and ground based defences will protect Moonbase and the Earth.

  11. Omnipresent Silver badge

    please hit russia

    please hit russia, please hit russia, please hit russia.....

    1. phuzz Silver badge

      Re: please hit russia

      If it hits the Earth, it's going to to be somewhere close to the equator (map here) So Russia, the US, Europe*, Australia etc. can all breath easy. The north of South America, most of Central Africa, Yemen, India and possibly China all need to be slightly worried.

      * French Guyana is under the track, which is technically part of Europe.

    2. Eclectic Man Silver badge
      Childcatcher

      Re: please hit russia

      @Omnipresent

      There are literally millions of Russians who object to Vladimir Putin's regime. Putin has imprisoned thousands of his opponents, has almost certainly ordered the murder of Alexai Navalny, and Alexander Litvinenko and the attempted murders of the Skripals in England. Whatever animosity you may have to the current Russian regime, please do not take it out on the Russian people.

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Asteroid 2024 YR4 to be renamed

    If it misses: “The glorious bigly orange space emperor”

    If it hits: “The Joe Biden”

  13. 0dd84ll

    Can’t happen

    As all of us in the UK know the moon buggered off on the 13th September 1999

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