back to article Asteroid as wide as 886 cans of spam may hit Earth in 2032

Astronomers reckon a 220-million-kilogram asteroid is going to swing by Earth in 2032 with a 1-in-100 chance of hitting us. On Christmas Day, a NASA-operated robot telescope was taking in the night sky in Chile when it caught sight of an object that activated the space agency's Asteroid Terrestrial Last Alert System. This …

  1. Andy Mac
    Gimp

    They should have called it the Torino Impact Threat Scale.

    1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      Are you sending it up?

      1. NoneSuch Silver badge
        Coat

        886 cans of Spam...

        That's a non-event.

        886 tins of Crawford's biscuits is an extinction level event.

        Mines the coat with the boot prints on the backside. Pub time.

  2. Sceptic Tank Silver badge
    Trollface

    Astroid Catastrophe Monitoring Equipment

    Asteroid Terrestrial Last Alert System. If you shoehorn those acronyms any harder there is going to be permanent damage.

    Anyway, I'll re-read Lucifer's Hamner to see what should be done. Hiding out in the Sierra mountains IIRC and a gun to fend off canibals. But they are on the other side of the earth from where I am. No way I can get there unless I surf the tsunami over the Atlantic, through the Panama Canal, and up the west coast of America.

    1. David Haworth 1
      Joke

      Re: Astroid Catastrophe Monitoring Equipment

      You could try hiding in the Atlas mountains.

      1. Wellyboot Silver badge

        Re: Astroid Catastrophe Monitoring Equipment

        I'd want to know an accurately calculated impact site before making that decision.

      2. Michael Hoffmann Silver badge

        Re: Astroid Catastrophe Monitoring Equipment

        In the foothills leading down from Marrakesh?

        (I'll take 70s obscure song references for 500, Alex)

    2. Fr. Ted Crilly Silver badge

      Re: Astroid Catastrophe Monitoring Equipment

      Hot fudge Sundae on Tuesday next week?

    3. Philo T Farnsworth Silver badge

      Re: Astroid Catastrophe Monitoring Equipment

      Having been around science and scientists for most of my career, I can tell you that the hardest part of any project is coming up with the acronym.

      The more tortured the better.

      If the consonants don't scream, you're not trying hard enough.

  3. Pascal Monett Silver badge
    Trollface

    886 cans of spam

    Who knew that spam could be so devastating ?

    1. David Harper 1

      Re: 886 cans of spam

      That's only the width. Now imagine a stack of tinned Spam that's 886 cans wide, 886 cans deep, and 886 cans high. That's 695 million cans of Spam. Moving at 38,700 mph. Does anyone have Bruce Willis's telephone number?

      1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

        Bruce, and Billy Bob too

        Well, our object collison budget's a million dollars, that allows us to track about 3% of the sky, and beggin' your pardon sir, but it's a big-ass sky.

        1. KittenHuffer Silver badge

          Re: Bruce, and Billy Bob too

          Which is why we only managed to spot it as it was moving AWAY from the Earth!

      2. codejunky Silver badge
        Thumb Up

        Re: 886 cans of spam

        @David Harper 1

        "That's only the width. Now imagine a stack of tinned Spam that's 886 cans wide, 886 cans deep, and 886 cans high."

        I read that and instantly heard the lines from Ghostbusters about the Twinkie.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: 886 cans of spam

          I read your post and instantly heard the lines from Zombieland about Twinkies.

      3. David Haworth 1
        Coat

        Re: 886 cans of spam

        695 000 000 cans of Spam on the wall

        695 000 000 cans of Spam

        Take one down, smash it into the Earth

        694 999 999 cans of Spam

        Mine's the overcoat with the nuclear-powered tin-opener in the pocket.

      4. karlkarl Silver badge

        Re: 886 cans of spam

        That's a goddamn waste of Danmark's finest export!

        An asteroid of that composition would be extremely difficult to deflect with projectiles and nukes. Similar issue as comets.

    2. Giles C Silver badge

      Re: 886 cans of spam

      Well that is a new measuring unit for the reg standards bureau.

      it used to be linguine with options to convert to

      Double-decker bus

      Brontosaurus

      Devon fatberg

      Osman

      Giraffe

      El reg need to update the standards converter https://www.theregister.com/Design/page/reg-standards-converter.html

      1. Michael Strorm Silver badge

        Re: 886 cans of spam

        > "Double-decker bus"

        Yeah, but that was the old TheRegister.co.uk.

        The new Yank-oriented TheRegister.com has to explain it in terms they're likely to understand. If they have double deckers at all over there, I don't think there are many of them.

  4. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Am I the only reader who read 'three' and was disappointed?

    1. Androgynous Cupboard Silver badge

      Come friendly asteroid, fall on earth! (apols. to John Betjeman)

      I also thoroughly approve of the asteroid impact simulator running from a .fun domain.

  5. 45RPM Silver badge

    Top marks on communicating the size of this asteroid - but I can’t visualise how fast it is moving. Can you clarify, perhaps a comparison with the speed of an African swallow?

    1. The commentard formerly known as Mister_C Silver badge
      Boffin

      to do that would require converting the asteroid's size in SpamTins into Coconuts and then extrapolating in terms of laden swallows. I tried but there wasn't enough room in the margin to show this.

      1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

        Hanc spamtinis exiguitas non caperet.

    2. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

      If we just stuck with one set of units people would become familiar with them and there would be no need invent a new unit for each measurement. As a bonus numbers from different sources would become easy to compare. To set the record straight: 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth at 104.1 million furlongs per fortnight.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        I think we all know that FPF (furlongs per fortnight) has been discredited. I prefer to measure speed in how many average blue whales lengths you travel per hour. The most average blue whale I know is named Miles, so my system is called Miles per Hour (MPH). So the asteroid is travelling at 2,270,400 MPH. Nothing could be simpler.

        1. NJS
          Pint

          Ah man, it's been a long week

          ... and I needed the laugh. Beer on me with thanks.

      2. Paul Herber Silver badge

        I can't fathom that out.

      3. uv
        Coat

        Here, it's called 0.5777% of the maximum velocity of a sheep in a vacuum.

        1. KarMann Silver badge
        2. that one in the corner Silver badge

          *spherical* sheep in a vacuum!

          1. IanRS

            Of uniform density, I assume.

    3. Bill Gray

      17.2 km/s

      Speed at impact would be 17.2 km/s. While much remains uncertain (whether it will hit at all, if so where along a long "impact corridor" running from Colombia to the India/China border), conservation of energy makes it fairly easy to determine what the speed would be.

      Energy is less easy to determine. We don't know how big it is; it's more like maybe 400 to 800 cans of spam, and the density is something of a guess. At the low end, we're talking Tunguska. At the high end, maybe ten times that?

      I don't know the speed of an African swallow (AUUUGGHH!), but if you do, divide it into 17.2 km/s and you'll have your answer. (Rough estimate : barn swallows in my part of the world -- not Africa -- are pretty fast birds and can keep up with a slowish car going about 40 km/hr. 2024 YR4 would be about 1550 times faster. A laden swallow is presumably slower.)

      (Incidentally, the close match to the speed at which the asteroid is receding in the article is coincidence. The speed varies with time, and it's actually accelerating away from us at the moment. It'll go through further changes, but would eventually be 17.2 km/s were it to impact us.)

  6. Evil Auditor Silver badge
    Devil

    @2024 YR4, I'd have some suggestions where to hit.

    1. Spherical Cow Silver badge

      As do I... and my top pick, given the area they think is in the firing line, is the middle of a very uninhabited part of the Sahara. I would actually prefer that to a complete miss, because the footage and the science would both be amazing!

    2. Philo T Farnsworth Silver badge

      There's never a good asteroid around when you need one.

  7. Neil Barnes Silver badge
    Facepalm

    Makes note in diary

    Remove hat that day.

    1. BartyFartsLast Silver badge

      Re: Makes note in diary

      Wear sunscreen.

      1. Jan 0

        Re: Makes note in diary

        and ear defenders!

  8. IamAProton

    220million kg = 220K Metric Ton

    I would have expected more than 'only' 8Mton blast; anyways the "Tsar bomb" was 50, I think we can handle 8. (Not going to be pretty, but it's not gonna be world-ending)

    1. Paul Crawford Silver badge
      Trollface

      the "Tsar bomb" was 50, I think we can handle 8

      From how close?

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Northeners

        I think this is one of those "Northeners, wear your big coat" situations.

      2. vekkq

        it can take out one city. but unlike nukes, asteroids don't do targeting and there are a lot of empty spots.

        i'd like to see some burning spam raining. probably smells good as well.

        1. Jan 0

          Asteroids don't do targetting, but I expect that Kim Jong Un has already spotted an opportunity to nudge it* with the latest DPRK rocket.

          * but not in a good way.

    2. Wellyboot Silver badge

      8 Mton isn't far off the crowd pleasers that sat atop the Titan-II or SS18 ICBMs from the '60s, goodnight to anything standing within a couple of dozen miles.

    3. Michael Strorm Silver badge

      The Tsar Bomba was exploded in the middle of nowhere and was still able to shatter windows almost 500 miles away.

      8 megatons wouldn't end civilisation, but it could still be disastrous if it fell remotely near any major city.

      1. This post has been deleted by its author

      2. Philo T Farnsworth Silver badge

        End civilization? How about starting one first?

        Yes, nurse, it's time for my anti-cynicism pill. I'll go nicely.

    4. Michael Strorm Silver badge

      > "220K Metric Ton. I would have expected more than 'only' 8Mton blast"

      Also, bit late here, but IIRC "megaton" is judged by equivalence with an explosion caused by that many tonnes of TNT.

      The asteroid isn't made of TNT, and isn't in itself explosive. The mechanism by which it will cause an explosion- by slamming into earth at high speed- is completely different, so they're not comparable in any meaningful way.

  9. Lazlo Woodbine Silver badge

    The way Florida Man is going, the impact may only be witnessed by insects and a few of the smaller mammals...

    1. Evil Auditor Silver badge

      ...and Mick Jagger.

    2. Wellyboot Silver badge

      Let him build a golf resort in your country and you'll be his biggliest buddy :)

      1. Lazlo Woodbine Silver badge

        He has, and we hate him even more...

  10. bazza Silver badge

    >as wide as 886 standard four-inch cans of spam laid end to end

    This opens up the option for a measurement of length, the pork-parsec; the distance at which a 4" can of spam subtends an angle of 1 arcsecond. It works out at about 13miles, which is curious because an astronomical parsec is about 2x10^13 miles.

    That means that an astronomical parsec is (if I put on my South African accent for a moment) 2 times tin to the power pork-parsec miles. I find that worryingly coincidental.

  11. Ball boy Silver badge
    Coat

    It's going to be okay: someone will figure out they got the decimal point on the wrong place and we'll be saved by a small dog.

    /Mine's the one with the well-thumbed copy of HHGTTG in the pocket.

  12. that one in the corner Silver badge

    We'll need a lot of wrapping paper

    And a very big bow.

    According to planetary.org, the visit will be Dec. 22, 2032.[1]

    Best to make a note to decorate the tree a few days early that year, just in case.

    [1] good thing it isn't a Torino 10 or we'd all feel proper fools worrying about the end of the 32-bit epoch.

  13. Winkypop Silver badge
    Mushroom

    Relax everyone

    It WAS predicted to land in the Gulf of Mexico.

    But Dear Leader in all his wisdom (praise be his Orangness) has renamed the area the Gulf of America.

    Therefore we are all now safe.

    1. andy gibson

      Re: Relax everyone

      D'you reckon it will return to sender with "NOT KNOWN AT THIS ADDRESS" on it?

  14. Bebu sa Ware
    Windows

    "moving away from Earth at 17.32 km/s "

    Meaning of course that it was hurtling towards the earth at 17320 m/s just before it took the bypass.

    ½mv2 means that each 340g can of SPAM packs about 51 MJ a bit more than its nutritional 4.4kJ (1047kcal.) 695 million tins† would pack 35.4PJ (35443TJ) which as the writer stated is about 8 megatons.

    Given the Earth hurtles along at 30km/s have be grateful it's not a head on in the offing (I assume asteroid is actually clocking 30+17.3 km/s.)

    By 2032 the current adminstration will have stuffed up NASA along with everything else so it's likely we won't see it coming.

    I noticed that the favoured impact sites don't include mainland US - manifest destiny I suppose.

    † that's 236000 tonnes of pig meat or perhaps 800000 pigs - a bit of a bugger if they were to land in the Middle East, I imagine.

    1. Crypto Monad Silver badge

      Re: "moving away from Earth at 17.32 km/s "

      > a bit more than its nutritional 4.4kJ (1047kcal.)

      I believe that should say 4.4MJ. Even so, the fireball of spam only adds about 9% to the total impact energy (although quite a lot to the smell I'd imagine).

    2. Bill Gray

      Re: "moving away from Earth at 17.32 km/s "

      (I assume asteroid is actually clocking 30+17.3 km/s.)

      The relative speed between us keeps changing. It was moving away from us at 17.32 km/s on 2025 Jan 27 at 13:00 UTC. Right now (call it 18:00 UTC on Jan 31), we're looking at 18.20 km/s.

      On impact in December 2032, its speed (as described below) is quite well-determined, even if we don't know where (or even if) it'll impact. If it does, it will (through sheer coincidence) do so at about 17.2 km/s. It'll initially be a bit slower than that, but will pick up speed over the last hour or so as the earth pulls it in.

      Collision will never be at less than about 11 km/s (earth escape speed). That'd be for an object basically in our orbit around the sun, only gaining energy because it's falling into the earth's gravity well.

      Head-on collisions could be at up to about 70 km/s. That would be a retrograde object on a parabolic orbit (us going ~30 km/s one way and it going ~40 km/s the other way). There are some comets that come close to doing that, but for most objects, we're looking at something much closer to that 17.2 km/s level of havoc.

      Interstellar object could, of course, be much faster. But the odds of that are a million to one (and yes, I know how often those happen).

  15. The Central Scrutinizer Silver badge

    To quote TISM

    Some time in the next 10,000 years a comet's gonna wipe out all trace of man.

    I'm banking on it coming before my end of year exam.

  16. Ball boy Silver badge

    Headlines, as reported by the UK papers:

    The Sun - Space Rock Shock!

    The Guardian - Truss: Labour budget affected asteroid path

    Daily Mail - Space collision to push house prices up, warn estate agents

    Financial Times - Asteroid impact could kill thousands. FTSE, Dow and Hang Seng down 50%

    Socialist Worker - Unions walk-out: "Demands for equal rights to impact ignored" claims shop floor steward

    The Mirror - Lady Gaga wardrobe malfunction at awards. Does she show a nipple? (pics. pages 2,3,5-14 and 22)

    1. Giles C Silver badge

      What about the Daily Sport?

      (There must be a sex dwarf angle somewhere)

  17. ReggieRegReg

    Spam you say?

    How much money are we going to fritter away to face down this threat?

    1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

      Re: Spam you say?

      That hasn't bean eggsplained yet.

  18. Rich 2 Silver badge

    Christmas Day

    Do they only switch the tracking computers on on Christmas day then?

    I ask because Apophis was also found on Christmas day; several years ago.

    Ho Ho Ho

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Christmas Day

      What a silly question....

      It's 'cos them telescopes are all looking upwards to spot santa and his sleigh !

  19. iollmann@me.com

    At some point these NEO threats will be at more threat from us as they are “inexpensively” captured for mining.

  20. trevorde Silver badge

    What happened next

    Trump blames it on Biden administration and defunds NASA

    1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

      Re: What happened next

      He will only defund NASA when he works out Artemis won't land people back on the moon until after the end of his term.

  21. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Problem solved

    Line it up with Trump’s open mouth.

    His gob could contain any amount of shit…

  22. GNU Enjoyer
    Angel

    Absolutely proprietary

    >PS: Consult our free online measurement calculator

    It's nonfree software; https://www.theregister.com/design_picker/79575cea356df0b71a00c2abf8804cbdfc91e2c9/page/reg-standards-converter.js

    Unacceptable.

    If you want a real unit convertor that respects your freedom, that is also the best unit convertor in the world, see here; https://www.gnu.org/software/units/

    For example;

    You have: 886*4inch

    You want: metre

    * 90.0176

    So a bit off.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Absolutely proprietary

      /r/whoosh

      Seriously, dial it back a little. Evangelism like this doesn't help its cause no matter what the subject.

    2. Crypto Monad Silver badge

      Re: Absolutely proprietary

      The editorial content of The Register is also copyright. Does that mean we shouldn't read it?

POST COMMENT House rules

Not a member of The Register? Create a new account here.

  • Enter your comment

  • Add an icon

Anonymous cowards cannot choose their icon

Other stories you might like