back to article ASML makes hay while suns shines, but Trump could rain on its parade

Dutch tech giant ASML is buoyed up by a wave of new orders during Q4 2024, and expects its business in China to return to a more normal level after a period of high revenue. However, there is uncertainty over whether the Trump administration may try to further restrict its sales there. The maker of advanced semiconductor …

  1. Headley_Grange Silver badge

    Apart from the tariff threat, what can Trump do? If the US were to commit to buying the equivalent $$ of kit that the Chinese might buy then fair enough, but chucking your toys out the pram because China is catching up and threatening people is a hiding to nothing. If he punishes the Netherlands for this then it could get to the point where they and other countries decide it's easier and safer to deal even more with China to make up the losses and costs of dealing with a US that expects to get its own way all the time and lashes out like a spoilt kid when it doesn't.

    1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      If the US starts breaching WTO agreements at scale at what point does the rest of the world start sanctioning them and disregarding any sanctions they've been placing. It could take Trump's successor a fair while to dig out of pariah status.

    2. Roland6 Silver badge

      > Apart from the tariff threat, what can Trump do?

      Turn a blind eye to the Israeli’s and get Stuxnet 2 …

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        > Apart from the tariff threat, what can Trump do?

        Invade Belgium. I know ASML is in the Netherlands - but does he ?

    3. DS999 Silver badge

      ASML's equipment is fantasically complex

      They have hundreds of suppliers, plenty of which are irreplaceable - there are no alternatives to what they produce. Many of them are in the US. If the US wants to prevent ASML from selling equipment to China they can block the export of the parts needed to make their EUV and DUV scanners.

      Obviously that's kind of a nuclear threat because it hurts everyone, even US companies like Intel who want to buy ASML equipment, but if anyone was going to make such a crazy threat it would be a moron like Trump.

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        Re: ASML's equipment is fantasically complex

        Cymer (their EUV lightsource maker) is still US based - but now owned by ASML. Don't know if the USA could/would stop them moving manufacturing to NL

        Their other critical suppliers are Eu.

        Although TSMC still relies on USA for some wafers and Japan for a lot of chemicals

  2. Claude Yeller

    "If he punishes the Netherlands for this then it could get to the point where they and other countries decide it's easier and safer to deal even more with China to make up the losses and costs of dealing with a US that expects to get its own way all the time and lashes out like a spoilt kid when it doesn't."

    It is a little bit like TMSC in Taiwan. The USA needs TMSC to deliver their chips. Taiwan need the USA to defend itself against the Mainland.

    The USA needs ASML to produce the machines to make its chips (or let TMSC produce its chips). The Netherlands need the USA to defend themselves against Russia (and China and ...).

    At the moment, the USA is threatening to block Dutch exports to the USA and to prevent imports to the Netherlands of the requisite components for its machines to get ASML to toe the line. But this strategy has its limits as ASML failing will hurt everyone else too.

    1. mpi

      > The Netherlands need the USA to defend themselves against Russia (and China and ...).

      They do? Interesting.

      When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

      So, what exactly and where exactly is that protection that NL allegedly "needs"?

      1. This post has been deleted by its author

      2. This post has been deleted by its author

      3. Claude Yeller

        When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

        "Inside Russia’s shocking proposals to obliterate the Netherlands"

        https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/alert-in-europe-as-russia-considers-nuclear-strike-on-the-netherlands/ss-BB1nJIxn

        China has their own navy to reach the Netherlands if no one defends them.

        1. Peter2

          Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

          The Netherlands is part of the EU & NATO.

          Anybody invading one EU country is courtesy of the mutual defence pact at war with the lot, and the same comments apply to NATO. Additionally, Britain got involved in both world wars due to Germany invading the only deep water ports in Europe that can conveniently be used to invade the UK; if somebody invaded them again then we'd be looking to keep them out of unfriendly hands.

          If somebody nukes the netherlands then given nuclear weapons will be flying and landing within 100km of the borders of two nuclear powers (That's Britain & France for Americans; both are nuclear powers) then they are liable to end up with one or the other side tossing nukes back. Which the Russians know; they aren't stupid. They just talk shit because their social media arm is the most successful part of their army. They detected that americans scare easily and bow to their threats and hence the event of the drunken nuclear threat of the day for the last couple of years.

          They won't carry through with their threats; Russians know that they would be the epicenter of a large glowing radiactive crater if their fired nukes first. Even China has told Russians to lay off the drink and threats or else they'll stop propping the Russian economy up because they don't like being associated with crazy people.

          1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

            >Anybody invading one EU country is courtesy of the mutual defence pact at war with the lot,

            Yes the problem with that is if the biggest army in NATO starts threatening to invade other members.

            If the US is on one side of you and Russia is on the other side, perhaps their common enemy is your new friend ?

            1. Headley_Grange Silver badge

              Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

              In trade terms that's the (very small, admittedly) risk he runs. At some point it might just be easier for Europe to stop trading with the US and compensate by upping trade with China, India, etc. and cooperating with them on tech and military things that are traditionally off the menu. As a Brit I'd prefer my stuff to be made in the UK or Europe, but back in the real world and given a choice between Chinese or US-with-a-nutter-in-charge dominance in, say, IC design and manufacture I think I'd prefer the one that won't come back every ten minutes with a new do-this-or-I'll-increase-tariffs demand.

              1. goblinski

                Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

                Yeah, because once/if the US gets out of the loop - trade and cooperation with China and Russia WILL REMAIN trade and cooperation with China and Russia, and not switch to a no-vaseline situation where the receiving end doesn't speak Russian or Mandarin.

                The horse in a hospital that Trump is is indeed a horse in a hospital situation, but the hospital remains a hospital. This too shall pass.

                1. Headley_Grange Silver badge

                  Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

                  True, but we're about to enter the no Vaseline stage with Trump, aren't we? Do you think he'll stand by NATO when Russia goes after the Baltics without demanding something unreasonable in return?

                  As for "this too shall pass". The nutters waiting in the wings in the US make Trump look like a reasonable bloke.

                  1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

                    Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

                    China can't really roll tanks into Estonia or take Ottawa

                    Not sure which is more surprising - that the US would elect somebody who is actually a Russian asset (or unknowingly the result of years of Russian media manipulation) or just a chaos monkey.

                    Either way he is bringing "balance to the force" and an end to the American century.

                  2. Peter2

                    Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

                    Do you think he'll stand by NATO when Russia goes after the Baltics without demanding something unreasonable in return?

                    Nope, not at all.

                    But given that Putin has lost basically lost like 800,000 maimed and killed from his army in Ukraine and basically all of that armies equipment to the Ukrainians who have been given modern infantry weapons and 1960's - 1990's vintage military heavy equipment that was lying around unused, with training consisting of a 2 week crash course and the manual and wishes of good luck, i'm pretty sure he's not going to want to face several dozen times the amount of equipment that is generations more advanced, and in the hands of people who'd spent their careers training to fight WW3.

                    Even an idiot knows that he can't possibly win. He's outnumbered in ships, aircraft, tanks, IFV's, APC's and even pain old grunts. And all of our equipment is massively better than his.

                    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

                      Re: When exactly has Russia or China tried to invade the Netherlands?

                      Depends which side the USA is on

  3. CheesyTheClown

    ASML can sell to China or sell to no one in a few years.

    So long as ASML sells to China, China will rush less to compete with them. One way or another, China will get the technology. For ASML, the best way is that China buys it from them. The other way which would put ASML out of business would be if China makes their own equipment because they couldn't buy ASML. Then China sells their equipment to everyone else at prices ASML can't compete with.

    The result would be that the whole world would be dependent on China and China could withhold their technology from the west.

    If a single EUV lithography system costs $100 million and to run an effective fab, you would have 10 or more of them, and China comes to me offering competitive technology for $50 million instead, government rules or not, I'd buy Chinese.

    If Deepseek R1 should have shown us anything, China can catch up. If you try to stop them, it will make them work harder and faster.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: ASML can sell to China or sell to no one in a few years.

      But you're forgetting that the whily oriental is incapable of inventing anything but merely copies the inventions of the superior Americans at ASML and TSMC

      1. Andrew Scott Bronze badge

        Re: ASML can sell to China or sell to no one in a few years.

        Sure, everyone knows that they copied paper and gun powder from the Americans. Knowing it can be done is half the battle.

POST COMMENT House rules

Not a member of The Register? Create a new account here.

  • Enter your comment

  • Add an icon

Anonymous cowards cannot choose their icon

Other stories you might like