Europe, UK weigh up how to respond to Trump's proposed tariffs. One WTF or two? The UK and EU must decide whether to coordinate a response to Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on stuff imported into the United States, or cut separate deals with the new president, the House of Lords heard this week. At a hearing examining the UK's post-Brexit relationship with Europe, Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and …
Or we just tolerate the TOJ's tariffs, and let the US simmer in their own juices for the next four years and suck up the economic pain. There's a huge amount of prattle about the benefits of trade deals, but most of the world seems to get by on WTO terms. And if simply removing trade barriers created wealth, arguably the EU should be a whole lot wealthier than the US.
if simply removing trade barriers created wealth, arguably the EU should be a whole lot wealthier than the US
In terms of population, the EU market is, to a first approximation, similar to the US market. Removing trade barriers between the various EU constituent countries simply replicated the lack of trade barriers between individual US states so I'm not sure why that would be a relative economic advantage compared with the US. And there's still the added cost of having language and culture variants of goods and services which is less of a problem in the US.
The EU certainly has plenty of trade barriers in place on its external borders - both in terms of tariffs (though these are less of an issue these days) and procedural friction (which is where most of the pain gets to be felt). I'm sure there's plenty of scope for tightening up on inspections and regulations without adjusting tariffs - it's just a question of how far to ratchet up the conflict.
"In terms of population, the EU market is, to a first approximation, similar to the US market."
EU pop 450m, US pop 343m. So if your approximation is rough enough, you'd be right. On the other hand having a market that should be 30% larger ought to count for a hell of a lot. But it doesn't seem to. There is of course more to it than merely tariffs - as the surprisingly good Draghi report finds.
Mind you, at least Trump's giving us a full scale trial of whether massive deregulation plus naked self interest works. On the right side of the Atlantic, I think most of us agree it's going to have lots of bad outcomes. Having said that it'll be very interesting to see what Europe does if the orange medicine does work.
A market that should be 30% larger ought to count for a hell of a lot
About 30%, in fact. And by the time you've made allowances for social provisions such as pensions, unemployment benefits and health care you're probably not that far off.
Though by the time you've factored in debt, natural resources and intangibles such as "social capital" and "fiscal responsibility" it's all pretty nebulous. As is the concept of what "works". Economic history is littered with artificial stimuli that have have produced temporary booms and sustained busts. Voters and politicians are only in it for the short haul so the true consequences of policy choices may only become fully apparent in decades to come.
More people capable of doing a job equals less pay offered, it is called competition.
The UK used to be rich enough to buy in excellence and offered perks like access to the NHS and a politically independent legal system.
Over my lifetime what was good in the UK, that made smart people want to live here has been intentionally destroyed inorder to achieve a third world within Europe.
If the UK and Europe want to counter trump's attack on trade then it means Europe not buying from US until the average US citizen understands that without fair trade he is just paying more for the stuff he needs to live.
Personally I would hit the US via their internet based services such as Amazon, google etc all the steaming services. Don't buy US anything just disconnect and make our own version of what we want. The US is only rich because we keep giving them our wealth and free access to our tech. Cut them off if you want equality
"Mind you, at least Trump's giving us a full scale trial of whether massive deregulation plus naked self interest works."
Yes, the lack of faith in experts by government, including historians, means they need to learn that lesson. Again. I think "robber baron" was first coined in 1870 USA.
Tell him if he imposes tariffs on the EU/UK you'll impose tariffs on the US. Make a list of things like German cars, Swiss watches, French wine and so forth that would get a lot more expensive for Trump voters, and let him decide if he wants a tariff war or not.
He's a profoundly stupid man, and seems to really believe that tariffs are a "tax on foreign countries". So threaten him with taxing the US, and watch him go ballistic on his dime store Twitter clone but anything he does trade wise is going to hurt the US economy at least as much as it hurts the European economy. When inflation is the only reason we put a convicted felon in office, creating a bunch of inflation in the US is the last thing he should want to do if he wants to maintain support. Because it only takes a few congressmen to abandon him over his stupid decisions for him to have a lot less power, and they can start turning the screws on him and force him to undo that stuff.
"Make a list of things like German cars, Swiss watches, French wine and so forth that would get a lot more expensive for Trump voters, and let him decide if he wants a tariff war or not."
You want to try export tariffs on goods going to the US? That's exactly what he's already saying he wants to do. Better is to target US imports of luxury goods and/or items that hurt his red States when they want to export to the EU. After all, that's the "trade imbalance" he's whinging about. The EU makes and sells more stuff to the USA than vice versa. Because the US want's lots of European things, but Europeans don't want so much US stuff.
I do wonder if most of the US trade imbalance is because they offshored so much manufacturing. Are all those "American" iPhones, laptops from HP and Dell and made in the Far East never touching US shores and so making those "American" products imported all over the EU not "American imports" but Chinese, Taiwanese, Thai, Indian, whatever imports instead?
My proposed solution would be telling the US it is very, very bad to us for billing us for far more money for services than it is buying services from us. You are going to be in for tariffs. It's the only way ... you're going to get fairness. After all with goods the US at least gets those goods while it doesn't give us something tangible for our money.
Joking aside threatening to add tariffs on services rendered by US entities might be a good way to counter that genius negotiation tactic.
"Make a list of things like German cars, Swiss watches, French wine"
Oh lordy, sweet child....
The BMW factory with the highest production volume is in.... the USA. Mercedes and VW build in the US too. (and VW are looking to close German factories as its just too expensive there now) Unless you are buying a very high end model its unlikely it would say 'Made in Germany' on the tag. And if you're buying a very high end model, well you're probably rich.
Those who can afford a $50,000 swiss watch won't care and the US actually makes pretty good wine.
Plus Trump voters won't be driving new bimmers, wearing poncy watches and sipping wine.
Wow. You really do wear your stupidity on your sleeve don’t you? The logical conclusion to your argument is that communities fracture and break up until everyone is looking out only for their own interests - even to the extent that there’s no safety net for the most disadvantaged in society and only the richest can afford healthcare, security and education.
I am a European. Yes, I’m unfortunate enough to be that breed on European for whom a small majority of their compatriots turned out to be as thick as mince and voted for Brexit, but I’m a European nonetheless - albeit one whose citizenship has been stolen to satisfy the prejudices of the stupid. More stupidly, a united Europe is the best place to weather the storm of idiocy that is ravaging the US and Russia, amongst others.
So, before you smugly (and idiotically) point it out, yes. I’m fully aware that Global Government is the logical conclusion of my liberal and accommodating wish for all humanity to work together. And yes, I know that it’s utopian - and not going to work (for now, at least) - but think what we could achieve if we all pulled in the same direction, rather than squabbling amongst ourselves?
@45RPM
"The logical conclusion to your argument is that communities fracture and break up until everyone is looking out only for their own interests"
What in the absolute stupidity are you talking about?
"I am a European"
Well done but dont use that as an excuse for your stupid reply. I am also European.
"More stupidly, a united Europe is the best place to weather the storm of idiocy that is ravaging the US and Russia, amongst others."
And yet you dont seem to have that. Not even in the EU do you seem to have that unity. Some of the members are pro-Russian in this situation and some are absolute anti-Russian. Then there are those who didnt really have such strong feelings and Germany who decided to rely on Russian gas and not bother funding their military until after the invasion. Note Trump even warned them to build up their military and they didnt.
FYI Russia is also in Europe. And god knows what US idiocy you are talking about unless you mean Trump now trying to stop wars.
"but think what we could achieve if we all pulled in the same direction, rather than squabbling amongst ourselves?"
You dont even have that in the EU so why would the UK surrendering to the EU solve this?
You so need to get a globe for your birthday. Part of Russia is in Europe (25% or thereabouts). The majority is in Asia. Not that it’s even remotely relevant to the conversation, because (as you very well know) we’re talking about political entities, not geographical regions. Remember - the majority of readers on The Register are intelligent and capable of critical thinking. For the most part, your pound shop rhetoric doesn’t work here.
@45RPM
"You so need to get a globe for your birthday. Part of Russia is in Europe (25% or thereabouts). The majority is in Asia."
Why do I need a globe if I have to remind you that Russia is in Europe?
"Not that it’s even remotely relevant to the conversation, because (as you very well know) we’re talking about political entities, not geographical regions."
Are you? I wasnt certain because you referred to Europe which is a geographical region, did you mean EU? Which is a common mistake some in the EU make, Europe is not in the EU, the EU is in Europe. The relevance being entirely to your comment that seems confused either in political entities or geography.
"Remember - the majority of readers on The Register are intelligent and capable of critical thinking."
Welcome to the site, I will try to be patient with you.
Now what does any of this or your previous comment have to do with my original comment you responded to? And remember you identified this as a place for intelligent and critical thinking.
"Part of Russia is in Europe"
Well, what is Europe anyway? There's the continent itself, which is loosely based on where the interesting rocks currently are, the UK-centric "Europe" which means everyone across the English Channel (and that bit to the West that we forgot about so then tried to ignore until the problem went away), Europe-centric "Europe" which is pretty relaxed but most certainly does not include Russia right now, the European Union which is a political grouping of most of "Europe", the European Economic Area which includes the EU and a few places not in the EU, the "Eurozone" which is different again and where you can spend the same money without having to bother with tedious exchange rates, the European Space Agency (which includes Canada as part of) but most importantly of all, "Europe" also includes Israel and Australia (and Russia but they aren't welcome at the moment) in the Eurovision Song Contest.
Trump now trying to stop wars
LOL
ROFL
ROFPMSL
You honestly dont believe that, do you ?
Trump has an interest in getting the credit, headlines, and prestige from stopping wars - but only to the same extent that Vladimir, Benjamin, the Myanmar junta, or any of the other aggressors do -
... he wants to be the winner...
@the Jim bloke
"... he wants to be the winner..."
You quoted- "Trump now trying to stop wars" and posted a whole comment that suggests you dont agree with that, but not one bit of your comment refutes it at all. Surely he is a winner if he stops the war? Not having people killing each other in a pointless war sounds like a win for all?
@jospanner
"In the same sense that imperial conquest is technically a peace, sure.
But then, wouldn’t we all be at peace if we simply joined the EU? :)"
I am not sure how you could twist your mind to come to that conclusion. Where did imperial conquest or even joining the EU come into what I said? And why do you think we would all be at peace if we joined the EU?
@jospanner
"Russia is physically in Europe therefore it must be in the EU is, genuinely, the most Brexiteer take I’ve seen in a while."
That is a very stupid thing to say, thankfully I didnt say it. 45RPM got confused with 3 geographic locations which 2 are also political entities, but giving the benefit of the doubt I answered his question that there isnt unity in the EU nor Europe.
turned out to be as thick as mince and voted for Brexit
It's possible to have a sensible discussion about the EU, but not with someone who either willfully refuses to accept that reasonable people may have good reasons for voting as they did, or arrogantly assumes "they don't think like me, so they're stupid".
one whose citizenship has been stolen
Citizenship is country-based, there's no such thing as "EU citizenship", if that's what you mean. If you prefer to become a citizen of an EU-member country there's nothing stopping you, of course. I know many British citizens who made that choice.
And before you start with the obvious comeback, I didn't vote for Brexit. I didn't have a vote in that referendum.
Citizenship is country-based, there's no such thing as "EU citizenship", if that's what you mean.
Cough. Yes, there is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_citizenship.
I used to be one, until Brexit took it away from me.
Cough. Yes, there is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_citizenship
That's not any form of true internationally-recognised citizenship, it's just EU window dressing, means nothing outside the EU. You can't get an "EU passport", nor pay "EU taxes", and if you travel to another country they'll treat you as a national of your specific country. It's a bit like Manchester United declaring all it's supporters as "ManU Citizens", sounds fun but doesn't mean anything outside the club.
No, you were a citizen of what was an EU country thereby making you a citizen of the EU by extension. Now your country is not part of the EU ergo you aren't an EU citizen.
If EU citizenship is important to you them become a citizen of an EU country. In most EU countries that means living there for 5 years.
You’re right - it is possible to have a sensible argument, without resorting to epithets, between two (or more) people of differing opinions. The epithets are only used when one or more parties show such idiocy / lack of critical thinking that they are oblivious to an obvious pack of lies. If you voted for Brexit (or Trump, Reform, FN etc) then own it. Don’t be a snowflake about it - you were a mug plain and simple.
The good news is that you don’t have to remain a mug. You can grow a pair (balls, boobs, ears, eyeballs, suit yourself), get informed, and make an intelligent decision next time (even if not necessarily one I agree with). You can’t do anything to make a previous idiotic decision any less stupid, but you can put your bravery trousers on and admit you screwed up.
But the “boo hoo hoo, they called be nasty names” is snowflakery pure and simple. There there, mummy’s precious little unicorn.
The epithets are only used when one or more parties show such idiocy / lack of critical thinking that they are oblivious to an obvious pack of lies.
True, but I'm sure you could understand the non-EU point of view if you put your mind to it. Actually, no. I'm not so sure.
If you voted for Brexit (or Trump, Reform, FN etc) then own it.
I was ineligible to vote in the Brexit referendum, because I was living in another EU country at the time. How does that fit with your worldview?
But the “boo hoo hoo, they called be nasty names” is snowflakery pure and simple. There there, mummy’s precious little unicorn.
Nice bit of whataboutery, but it won't wash. You can call me any names you like, it reflects more on your sensitivities than mine.
I was very much a supporter of the EEC and it's predecessors like the Common Market & the Coal and Steel Community. They were extremely valuable in helping European countries put aside the post-war tensions and build a successful trading economy. They weren't perfect, nothing like that is, but they really helped build a strong and peaceful Europe.
The conversion of that into the political and fiscal union of the EU in 1993 was an unmitigated disaster for Europe, for multiple reasons.
The many EU countries have very different views on fiscal and social principles; some like the free market and others prefer protectionism; some prioritize individual freedoms, others go more for paternalism and solidarity. As a result much EU legislation isn't based on what everyone agrees on, but on whatever offends them sufficiently little not to reject it. It's why so much EU legislation has tens of thousands of words, to give sufficient ambiguity that it can be sold to all the varied voters.
That only leads one way, to the lowest-common denominator, and the result is the stagnation and mediocrity that has characterised the EU for the past 30 years. It's been left far behind by fast-growing countries like China and the USA, even non-Euro EU members have done better than those in the Eurozone. If the convergence criteria for the euro had actually been taken seriously things might be better, for the few countries that could have met them, but the way the rules were fudged to make it possible for so many countries to be absorbed led directly to the Italian and Greek crises from which the euro still hasn't fully recovered.
At the time of the Maastricht agreement few countries were permitted referendums. One that was, France, has always been a strong europhile, yet even it only voted "yes" by 50.6%. Briitish opinion polls showed people 65% opposed, but we had no referendum.
One of the most serious consequences of that was a very large portion of the population of EU countries feeling ignored, and without any voice. All the mainstream parties push the "more Europe will fix everything" line, so who can those unhappy voters turn to? Unfortunately the answer to that is that many turned go the extreme left and right, whose only common position was a dislike of the EU. We see the rise of the LFI and RN in France, AfD in Germany, Freedom Party in Austria, Vlaams Belang in the Netherlands, 5-Star and Fratelli d'Italia, etc. That's a very, very dangerous situation. If the EU doesn't start to take this seriously it will look very different in 5 years, and not for the better.
Well said!
In particular the last two paragraphs.
We were given a choice on the EEC (a trading community) and happily accepted it: we love trading! The EU was a completely different thing (political union), and it was rammed down our throats, despite widespread calls for a referendum because the powers that be knew that they would lose. That's why there was so much sustained anti-EU feeling.
"That's why there was so much sustained anti-EU feeling."No, more that there was a concerted effort, and £billions/millions spent blaming everything that was self inflicted, usually financial pillaging and intentional mismanagement to save £ and to divert £ to private interests, on the EU. It was a concerted effort over many years of lies, blame, lies, diversion, lies and rabble rousing. If you check the likes of the Daily Mail, it is has only ever been about finding someone else to blame... from the Irish through travellers/gysies, forrners in general, Muslims and the EU. We even wound up with a pathological liar and serial embezzler as PM who then went on to blame everyone else for his own actions and policies and spearheaded the normalisation of racism and the right wing press that supported him basically copied word for word the actions of the Nazi backing press in the early 20th century.
"...communities fracture and break up until everyone is looking out only for their own interests - even to the extent that there’s no safety net for the most disadvantaged in society and only the richest can afford healthcare, security and education."
The American way, at least in the eyes of some?
"... think what we could achieve if we all pulled in the same direction, rather than squabbling amongst ourselves?"
s/could achieve if/have achieved when/
That is a bit harsh and ignores the very significant part that Cambridge Analytics and Dominic Cummins played in feeding a lot of voters targetted ads that basically said "If you vote Remain all your fears about <insert topic that makes them s**t their pants here> will happen"
Then there were the delusional types who wanted the British Empire back (quite a lot of these SEL's had serious money, or anonymous "friends" who allowed them to help bankroll this pack of lies, like Aaron Banks*)
And then there were the flat out greedy like Rees Mogg and Crispin Odey**, who expected the massive currency swings would allow currency speculators to make a lot of money (remember that was Farage's old job). They were right. Note these are bets against the UK economy. As for those British voters lives, f**k em.
Fairer adjectives for the 15million odd quitters who are left (Peter Kellner in the Guardian reckoned around 2milliion of the old codgers who basically won Brexit for Leave were dead by 2020) would be
gullible and desperate
A recurring theme of successive UK governments (and their Civil Servant advisors) has been "It was the EU what made us do it," when in fact if you dig deeper "it" (whatever it is) had f**k all to do with EU rules or policy. The UK took back control of it's borders yet legal migration to the UK was > 600 000 last year, despite a Conservative majority from 2016 onward.
It is a choice of successive British governments, which could be summed as being "Cheap labour and very expensive higher education course fees (¬£9k/year, between £35-£60k/year)"
Because fixing the root causes of those issues requires serious investment and a very strong belief that investment will benefit the UK as a whole. Which Britains, who want US levels of Tax and Swedish levels of social policy will not accept they will have to pay for.
The British, like every democratic nation that runs free and fair elections, get the government they deserve, which for 74 of the last 100 years has been a Conservative one. If anyone wants better they need to work for it.
*Don't call him "Piggy".
** Truss's Chancellor Kwateng was one of his former minions and they still have meals together. It's not much of a stretch to imagine if he dropped the fact they were going to announce massive unfunded tax cuts in a mini budget that Odey could figure a way to make even more money as interest rates rise 50x over what they were.
<........" and ignores the very significant part that Cambridge Analytics ....... played in feeding a lot of voters targetted ads.......".....>
This is another of those myths that gets repeatedly parroted by some people with an axe to grind.
However, it simply isn't true:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/07/cambridge-analytica-did-not-misuse-data-in-eu-referendum-says-watchdog
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457407
Hat tip to Dominic Cummins description of David Davies (I think it ends "And lazy as a toad.")
But let me note from the BBC article
"Vote Leave, the main pro-Brexit campaign group whose supporters included Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, was fined £40,000 for sending out almost 200,000 unsolicited text messages in the run-up to the 2016 vote.
And Leave.EU, the Arron-Banks led group which also campaigned to exit the EU, paid a £15,000 fine for unlawful marketing in relation to emails sent to its subscribers and those of Eldon Insurance, another firm run by Mr Banks."
And the thoughts of the ICO Commissioner Elizabeth Denham
“confirms my earlier conclusion that there are systemic vulnerabilities in our democratic systems”.
Emphasis mine.
And the Guardian noted Vote Leave did use AggregateIQ based in Canada, who had links to CA, for their actual dirty work.
The UK now has the time based on these findings to harden it's systems. Time will tell if it does so.
<......."And the Guardian noted Vote Leave did use AggregateIQ based in Canada, who had links to CA, for their actual dirty work."....>
Specifically it referred to historical links ie. these had no relevance to the Brexit referendum.
It's people like you with their distortion of the facts, and more damagingly continual rudeness and name calling that antagonised so many leavers. Calling people that you are trying to persuade to your point of view "swivel-eyed loons" or "thick as mince" isn't ever going to win anyone over.
Name calling is almost exclusively the preserve of those who either have lost the argument, or are unable articulate a coherent presentation of their case.
QED
"continual rudeness and name calling that antagonised so many leavers"
And likely lost Hillary the 2016 election and Kamala the 2024 election. Also the same people accusing the other side of being divisive.
"ignores the very significant part that Cambridge Analytics and Dominic Cummins played"
What also played a HUGE part in making people from traditional Labour areas vote leave was the ungodly smug, condescending, self aggrandising, sneering, pompous attitude of the largely London and south east based upper middle and upper class remainers who spent the entire campaign talking down to anyone who didn't agree with them, didn't bother bother to actually engage with real leave voters except to insult them more and then threw a temper tantrum when they lost demanding a do-over.
They might as well have been chanting "Rah! Rah! Rah! We're going to smash the oiks".
Preformative things like waving the EU flag at last night of the proms or having yet another march in London on a week day when normal people are working. Heaven forbid anyone has a St George flag, they are wacist gammon!! Wave the Saltire all you want and vote for the SNP but do not be proud of being English. "I'm a European citizen". I wonder how many French, Spanish, Italians or Germans would make the claim they are a European over being a national of their home country?
You could have got the legislation changed so it had to be a super majority but no, the thickies will do what we tell them to do.
Anyone remember 'learn to code'?
PS I live in the home counties, have an MEng from a Russell Group uni and voted remain.
Fairer adjectives for the 15million odd quitters who are left (Peter Kellner in the Guardian reckoned around 2milliion of the old codgers who basically won Brexit for Leave were dead by 2020) would begullible and desperate
But the same adjectives can be applied to the Remnants. Those gullible and desperate voters who couldn't conceive.. Of a world without the tender embrace of EUrocrats who did not, and still do not have the UK's best interests at heart. The EU knows best, and the UK would have had to continue to obey any EU Diktats anywhere the EU decided to claim exclusive (in)competency.
It is especially ironic that the Remnants bring up Brexit (again, you lost, get over it) when it comes to Trump's proposed tariffs. Maybe he'll impose 100% tariffs on EU exports. Guess what? The UK isn't in the EU, so those tariffs wouldn't apply, unless Trump decides to apply those to the UK as well. But then UK-US trade is fairly balanced, we're loyal NATO spenders, so there is no reason to. If we were still stuck with the EU, we'd be stuck with the full economic impact of their decisions.
@45RPM
"I’m fully aware that Global Government is the logical conclusion of my liberal and accommodating wish for all humanity to work together. And yes, I know that it’s utopian"
I have always thought it a strange dream for global government, the more I think about it the less utopian it sounds and more dystopia. The assumption always seems to be that the global government will be one similar to what you are used to, but what if its more like China's government? Or Russia? N.Korea? USA? There are plenty variations in government with different people preferring different types. Even in our own countries we spend large amounts of time criticizing our own governments/leadership assuming we are in a country that allows us to.
But government is a necessary evil, so with a greater purpose beyond our world which needs us to unite a global government might have some reason to exist. But the problem with government is it gets stuffed with politicians and bureaucrats and they exist to find or create more work, extract more resources from the people and excise more power.
Competition between governments to attract people and be less scummy. As we have seen with governments not willing to do so such as numerous socialist attempts, the guns point inwards to stop people from leaving the 'utopia' nightmare they are oppressed under.
>>I am a European. Yes, I’m unfortunate enough to be that breed on European for whom a small majority of their compatriots turned out to be as thick as mince and voted for Brexit<<
It's called a democracy. And I just love how some remainers cast people who voted for Brexit as "thick". I don't need to say any more really. As soon as you wrote that you invalidated everything else you wrote.
Having cake and eating it. Oven Ready Deal. Sovereignty. They need us more than we need them. Blue Passports! Free Tampax! Got Brexit Done! Took Back Control. First in line for fantastic new trade deals! What happened to the sunlit uplands and majestic herds of wild unicorns we were promised, Hmmm?
"Tricky to make a 15 year plan when the EU refused to even start negotiations (and banned member states from starting their own) until the UK had formally triggered the Article 50 withdrawal process, which then started a 2-year clock."No. More that the gov assigned whatever grifting con-artist to the process and decided that no matter what, the UK had to repeatedly shoot itself in the foot with as large a cannon as possible. No plans for afterwards. No plans for during. Just rhetoric, lies and opportunities to embezzle more while they could. When it turns out that chucking incompetents at the problem, it was then declared that the EU was the problem with the negotiations because for utterly explicable reasons the EU was not going to allow the UK to remain part of the incredibly valuable trading arrangements without also taking part in the other elements. The EU even went so far as to offer some things unconditionally but the rabid anti-EU crowd could not accept such gestures and therefore things like our scientific and law enforcement cooperations thrown onto the bonfire of stupidity.
Once an agreement had been agreed, it was touted as amazing and great and such an incredible success and we would expect unicorns and unmitigated economic boom. Just please don't mention Northern Ireland as that required a quantum state solution, and Gibraltar could do one to, as well as fishing. Then, a year or so later the same snake oil salesmen behind it and that had inflicted it on the UK and EU started to complain that it was awful and that it was all the fault of the EU.
There are still people lying about there being any benefits, duplicitously blaming that "it was not a hard enough brexit" for the entirely predictable results of shooting one's own foot with a cannon. Repeatedly. Likewise duplicitously those that such stupidity had been inflicted upon for not getting behind the search for invisible shiny rainbow unicorns that for some reason have still yet to be found or even described.
Moving that money out of the magical EU budget and into the NHS budget, like we were promised, should be trivial, and a great way to win over voters. So where are these sunlit uplands?
Or have you not noticed how unbelievably depressing the UK is these days compared to other western EU nation states?
"Moving that money out of the magical EU budget and into the NHS budget, like we were promised"
The £350M per week Boris Johnson said we would take from EU membership and put into the NHS* (I don't think he ever actually said that in a way that you could hold him to it, only in that cunning non-legally binding way politicians tend to say things, and it was fact checked to be more like £250M maximum - still a lot but not the £350M claimed). That's £18bn per year. NHS funding certainly has gone up over time and between 2020 and 2023 excluding COVID related cash injections it rose by more than £18bn per year. But, I don't you can say in all honesty that it was a result of leaving the EU and having that £18bn per year as extra cash. The annual increase in NHS funding is just following a rough trend going back to at least 2010 (as far back as the graph linked to below goes). Leaving the EU resulted in no additional funding for the NHS that wasn't already going to happen or had already been happening. (I hope I got that tense right, my copy of Streetmentioner wioll haven not been to hand)
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/data-and-charts/nhs-budget-nutshell
*Using "NHS" to mean the Department of Health or the Department of Health and Social Care
The only increases in NHS funding have been either Covid related or inflationary.
This doesn't stop some pathetic brexiteers claiming that the inflationary rise in NHS investment was in fact the £350M per week that Johnson promised would be a benefit of brexit. Naturally, being Johnson, he lied about this and denied every saying this but pictures in front of him and the words he said are clear. But this is the same criminal that somehow wasn't behind any lockdown breaking parties in his own official residences and changed his lies over time from "didn't know about it", "wasn't there", "briefly went through", "was there but it was all socially distanced", "it was all legal" to "look, something something something else that I can just lie about to distract from my criminal actions".
"The only increases in NHS funding have been either Covid related or inflationary."
Not so. That graph over time shows year on year increases in NHS funding (except 22/23 -23/24 which I suspect is a covid related return to the norm). The graph is labelled "real terms", ie inflation corrected.
If you want to bash the Tory/ coalition governments since 2010, you can point out the year on year increase in funding that has somehow ended up with the NHS still getting worse.
Look at the picture of the bus again.
It's not a promise, it's a question
"Wouldn't it be nice if....."
Well yes it would, pity there is actually fu**all chance of it happening, but it would be nice if it did. I think we could all agree on that.
AFAIK the full funds that went to the NHS from Bu***hit Boris's govt was about 6 weeks of contributions. At least half of the 40+ "New" hospitals were really refurbs
It's a very neat piece of marketing, something the British do very well. An example of applied Cognitive Psychology.
@jospanner
"Or have you not noticed how unbelievably depressing the UK is these days compared to other western EU nation states?"
Those EU member states that are voting in ways the EU doesnt approve as it fears the ongoing rejection of current 'EU' values? I hear the Dutch mood improved when Geert Wilders got the popular vote.
"Or have you not noticed how unbelievably depressing the UK is these days compared to other western EU nation states?"
Are you sure?
Germany is facing 35,000 job losses just from VW. Germany are in recession.
And if life is so good why are many of these nations now lurching to the political right?
@Nick Ryan
"Still waiting on a single tangible benefit of brexit"
Either you are new here or I doubt it. But for the amusement of others I was reading this fun little story at the weekend- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crm73z0np93o
A winemaker who is blending wines from France and Australia would find it illegal to sell in his home country France under both French and EU law. For all the billions of private transactions that occur from small to large business which makes up the whole economy... the EU by default says no. I can only imagine the effort and back handers needed to try and make something like this potentially legal in the EU, and yet its one of those little innovation things that makes economies grow.
@ChodeMonkey
"That's it? Very weak sauce."
Really? Reread and understand the comment. The economy isnt held up by one or two 'big' transactions but by billions of small day to day transactions that drive innovation, provide the employment and make everyone better off. If the support of the economy is weak sauce to you then I can only guess you prefer a USSR style (over its lifetime estimated not to have grown productivity one iota).
"There must be stronger examples?"
The undefeated champion I do like to mention is the covid vaccine procurement.
@Nick Ryan
"That's all there is?"
According to you- "Still waiting on a single tangible benefit of brexit" and this is a single tangible benefit. One that a fanatical EU cultist would have to accept as real (watch some idiot prove me wrong).
"Well that's definitely worth destroying the economy for, ruining the future of younger generations and normalising racism and embezzlement."
We left the EU so dont worry we are less at risk of that.
Mexico (where I happen to be on holiday at the moment) Is taking advantage of the Orange hostility by creating 35,000 new jobs. I am sure that Canada and Europe will also benefit from the voluntary refugees.
Columbia (and Brasil, sort of) have also shown two fingers to the Orange One.
There was never going to be a US UK trade deal anyway. Above all, don't reciprocate. It won't change Trump's behaviour, but it will increase costs for consumers in the UK and EU.
US Population: 335 million. RotW population: 7,665 million.
Just pivot away from the US for a bit with exports. Leave Trump to do his own thing.
Trump's plans amount to an American Brexit and will fail as badly as the original. As in the UK with the Tories, his policies got him elected, the inevitable consequences of them will see him turfed out.
How will trump and his extremist government be chucked out?
USA citizens have voted him in with dictatorial presidential powers. The Republicans need not hold an election in 2028.
I believe it will be generations before the USA becomes a democracy, if ever. I'm not sure European democracy will survive long, either.
"before the USA becomes a democracy"
Never was, it is a representative republic.
"not sure European democracy will survive long"
Given the way election results are being overturned and attempts to ban political parties, very true. We are seeing yet again the whims of the ruling elite pushed onto the masses by force and don't you dare oppose them!
Never was, it is a representative republic
Democracy and republic are not mutually exclusive (it depends, however, how dogmatically you want to define them). "Representative republic" though is a pleonasm and the USA is probably best described as a representative democracy.
Does El Reg allow to call someone an idiot? Can we, please, establish an Idiots' Corner? Asking for a friend...
A good start but unfortunately the UK has to deal with the FOCF.
In fact the world will probably be dealing with the attention-seeking man-child to the day he dies, or they get smart enough to totally ignore every f**king word he says.
"How will trump and his extremist government be chucked out?"
Well for a start he's not actually in yet as a number of his Cabinet have not passed their confirmation hearing, with the exceptions of "Porksword Pete" Hegseth* and a few others.
There's a thing called "Midterm elections" coming up in 2027 in which voters might like to show their feelings. Let's see what the price of groceries are like then shall we?
Or the cost of anything that's imported? Or the cost of anything that's been made using a high percentage of undocumented labour?
"USA citizens have voted him in with dictatorial presidential powers. "
Some US citizens voted him, but it was far from the "landslide" he likes to paint. 2 Years gives the Democrats time to conduct a full selection process for leader and re-build the social media skills that Obama's team had but which seems to have gone to s**t since his election. Basically they need to engage with everyone. Some advice from Turkey suggests a way forward.
BTW It was SCOTUS that gave him complete criminal immunity, not the US voters. Again their main goals seem to be a)Lower the cost of living b)Deport 12 million undocumented migrants. If people keep those things in mind let's see where the Administration is at on those issues in 2027.
"I believe it will be generations before the USA becomes a democracy,"
Well as republican trolls like to point out it is not a democracy but a "Democratic republic."
This might be the perfect time for Americans (of all political persuasions) to understand things like "The separation of Church and State (a lot of those voters did so because their preacher said so, a blatant violation of this doctrine) and the equivalency of the 3 branches of government actually mean.
They might also ponder having enforceable ethics rules on SCOTUS (with criminal penalties for non-disclosure) and a review of the selection process for Federal Judges.
Declaring the Federal Society as a RICO given the amount of corruption Judges supported by them have enabled might also be an idea.
Personally I'd call them a terrorist group given their goals are much the same as the Taliban regarding women, and frankly, anyone else.
*"Hogsbreath" or "Mr Roofie" might also be appropriate nicknames along with "Thirsty"
The IMF disagrees with you: Whether analyzed in terms of import prices or of import volumes, nearly all research finds only a modest effect of international trade on wages and income inequality. The average estimate of the effect of trade on wages and employment is not zero—most research finds some role for trade—but it is certainly lower than what might be expected from purely anecdotal evidence, and certainly far from the claim that import competition makes a "giant sucking sound
The big question, IMHO, is whether free trade leads to growth. If it does, which is usually the case, that will drive wages up.
The OPs question was "whether free trade leads to growth".
Now the question is do you think John Deer are offering above market wages in their Mexican factories? Also remember that very little, if none, of the profits from selling those tractors back in to the US will land in Mexico. It all goes back to the US HQ.
Of course it would make sense if everyone could agree, and we could all have a unicorn, sunshine, and roses. Plus a big helping of Mom's apple pie.
But there's no agreement within the EU over how to deal with Trump. There's even less likely to be a deal the EU can agree on that they can also agree on with us.
Also if healthy negotiations and common sense were likely between the EU and UK - we wouldn't have the Brexit deal we ended up with. Which was a much more limited deal than either side wanted. Getting common sense and compromise now seems even less likely, given that all discussions of trade deals seem to come down to people talking about "victory" and "defeat" - trade deals that work are about mutual benefit - and you're never going to get Trump to buy into that. To be honest, there didn't seem to be much of that on display from the EU Commission during the Brexit negotiations either - they seemed totally obsessed with "winning". And then ended up settling for a much looser relationship than they wanted. Interesting to see how the "great negotiator" Barnier performed as French Prime Minister, briefly at the end of last year. And that was just negotiating one years' budget...
Good negotiation is about trying to fit two sides positions together in the most advantageous and least destructive ways possible. Unless you're Trump, in which case it's more about looking "strong" and shouting a lot, often achieving very little. But saying you're "a winner". I'd say there was quite a lot of that from the EU back in day too - and I still don't think there's been a huge amount of change. The bitterness has cooled - but at the time I said relations wouldn't normalise until all the political leaders involved had gone. We've still got Macron, von der Leyen and Tusk - they might look a tad silly if they offered up compromises that were "literally impossible" 5 years ago...
Plus, I don't see anybody seriously talking about a comprehensive trade deal with Trump. I'm sure there will be negotiations, on particular issues, but Munchau called for a replacement for the TTIP - which collapsed in 2016 because both Trump and Clinton came out against it in the election. And it wasn't exactly popular in Europe either - there's no way the French would sign up for it, given their political climate. I regularly read Munchau's blog, and listened to his podcast while it was running - but I think he's dived into pure wishful thinking here.
Also, Trump might take some kind of symbolic short term "big win" and shut up about it for a bit. Which would be a lot simpler to agree than a proper trade negotiation. On average, trade deals take a decade.
Oh, and finally, the EU's trade surplus with the US is in goods the UK's is in services (though it might be in goods as well, I'm not sure).
Good negotiation is about trying to fit two sides positions together in the most advantageous and least destructive ways possible. Unless you're Trump, in which case it's more about looking "strong" and shouting a lot, often achieving very little. But saying you're "a winner". I'd say there was quite a lot of that from the EU back in day too - and I still don't think there's been a huge amount of change.
Sadly very true. If the EU had been willing to just accept that the UK wanted to leave, even if they disagreed, and work to find the best deal for both the UK and the EU, we'd all be in a better place. Their determination to make sure that the UK regretted its decision to go blinkered them to the possibilities of a win-win, they had to portray the UK as the loser. Politicians are not diplomats.
Blaming the EU for the shitty deal? How about blaming the Tories that came back from talks and publicly said the exact opposite? That turned up without bothering to prepare? That felt playing to the peanut gallery was more important than negotiation? That had the infamous ERG laying down ever harsher "red lines"?
Those fuckwits only started to see sense when the ERG pushed for the possibility of a crash out and realised that the EU, rather than capitulating, was organising member states on what to do in the event of a crash out. Countries passed emergency legislation in order to be prepared (especially with regards to UK citizens in their countries). Which, I think, is finally what demonstrated to the UK that this "oven ready" deal simply didn't exist and wouldn't exist. So a bad agreement was eventually thrown together.
Imagine how much better it might have been if the government had actually worked on making an agreement rather than wasting most of those four years antagonising the other side...
It might have helped if they had been in a position to actually negotiate, instead of being sent into the talks with their hands tied behind their back by a group of vociferous people insisting that we must have a deal at any price. That is what we ended up with, and the reason why two chief negotiators resigned.
How to make a bad situation even worse in one easy lesson!
If only it were only two, it was more.
But Johnson said no deal was a possibility and Frost decided that it would be thin deal. So the UK government got what it wanted.
the UK fucked it up.
How, by not leaving the way the EU wanted it to, i.e. by agreeing to obey all EU rules even though it was no longer a member? That was never on the table.
The UK governments certainly fucked-up the post-EU situation, but that's a different issue.
Certainly, the EUC wanted to demonstrate that leaving the EU is painful. In another example, when the Swiss decided they wanted to limit immigration and change the treaty on free movement, the EUC retributed with restrictions on Switzerland long before any change to a treaty was even discussed.
Anyhow, responsible for the disastrous Brexit outcome is first and foremost the bunch of condensed incompetence, aka Government of the United Kingdom at that time.
""[The legislation] is very different from that in the UK, and the digital area is certainly an area where the UK has a competitive advantage."
A bit less competitive if it results in losing equivalence with the EU in terms of date protection and unlikely to earn brownie points from Trump.
Is someone going to just tell Trump to fuck off. Get back with free trade with the EU and let America rot fot 4 years. The idiot voters chose him, they can suffer the high prices he's going to create.
Alex Salmond didn't with the golf course and let Trump fuck over a load of contractors and people that live there.
He should be in fucking prison. Now threatening Greenland. He really needs to fuck off.
So he's already been on the blower to Denmark.
I'm wondering if Sockboy has received a similar phone call, as Mr Transparency proved to be anything but (Quelle surprise) & has concealed it or Trumpzilla is waiting on the next Liebral leader or election before he makes his move.
I've also heard that he wants to see California voter ID's for those affected by the fire, before they receive aid.
May you live in Interesting times, interesting seems to be a fucking understatement.
Most Europeans are still confused why UK left.
UK is part of Europe, and will likely rejoin it anyway. Why to sacrifice several generations of Brits for a silly mistake? Besides it was not because of common people - rather a few politicians and some external influencers dreaming about EU falling apart. There are much bigger strategic goals and challenges for Europe long term.
Even personal relations get destroyed through pride. Just swallow it, and go on. Political fluctuations happen (recently Hungary and Poland). Germany once had Hitler, now the center of Europe. Maybe more effective mechanisms to tackle outliers should be developed. Overall UK and EU have common values and long term goals.
Bureaucracy has its ways of course. It does not like "undoing" or paper work. But what if UK-EU borders reopened tomorrow? Would it be a disaster? I don't think so.
The UK never left Europe, it would be a bit hard to move an entire country. We left the EU.
So here is the thing, the UK was never part of schengen. There were always passport checks when crossing the channel. There was freedom of movement for citizens of EU member states but the border was never open like between say France and Germany.
No need to make things worse over here by retaliating with tariffs of our own, just be prepared to modify our IP protection laws to allow things like reverse engineering to enable 3rd-party interoperability, repair, maintenance, etc. ( based on an idea from Cory Doctorow ) Most of those specific items are only there in the first place because the US insisted.
https://doctorow.medium.com/canada-shouldnt-retaliate-with-us-tariffs-a0e32042fec8
And then look at tariffs on Chinese EVs. Why pay $100k for one from Elon when you could get one for $20k from China. Do you want to save the planet or not why make it artificially more expensive.
And then take a hard look at how much money various governments spend advertising on American social media platforms. What a waste maybe cut that out entirely.
And then take a look at how many pension funds etc are holding American bonds. Maybe stop buying more and let the ones on hand run out.
Many things could be done that would actually damage the USA without making it more expensive for the average Joe to get some bourbon or whatever.
In his first week he's threatened tarrifs on Canada, Mexico, Panama, Denmark, Russia, the UK, Europe, China... have I missed any? Probably.
It's like someone replaced the complex wheels within wheels of economic policy with a single Fisher-Price-style lever labelled "Tarrifs".
Wait till the penny drops with the MAGA crowd that the price of their favorite tat/bling/iThings has gone up due to tariffs which have not been absorbed by the channel.
There'll be cries of "lock[boot] him out" or worse.
"45RPM" wrote:
"So, before you smugly (and idiotically) point it out, yes. I’m fully aware that Global Government is the logical conclusion of my liberal and accommodating wish for all humanity to work together. And yes, I know that it’s utopian - and not going to work (for now, at least) - but think what we could achieve if we all pulled in the same direction, rather than squabbling amongst ourselves?"
President Xi is working on that!
His useful idiot, putin, (now his vassal, lol) has successfully divided the UK and the USA from Europe. Xi must be pleased, I reckon the "100 Year Plan" is going well - despite his economic glitch.
We'll swap our atavistic violent squabbles for a stern jackboot.
Just stop supporting the US industrial military complex.
Europe and South Korea make just as good and sometime better equipment for a lot less money (ok excluding the AMX LeClerc which is far more expensive), without the US baggage.
I'm sure the Red states where most of these operate will soon cry when losing their biggest export market.
If there is a trade deficit between the US and europe, we obviously have something to offer that they as a country can't.
Unlike the trade deficit with Asia, it ain't manufacturing costs, we obviously offer better value for money, i.e. it may cost more
but of higher quality, i.e. why do Americans buy German cars over American?
So we have an advantage here. If Tariffs are put on European goods, how long will it take for the US to add the additional
capacity into their own economy to be able to offer the same at a cheaper price?
Let them hit us with Tariffs it will unfortunately be the the American people who pay.
Most European cars are actually made here in the US, it is more likely certain parts are imported here.
But if a BMW now costs 25% more many Americans will just buy a Lexus! As Japan is willing to work with us.
It appears the largest imports are computers (we can make our own, cheaper), Pharmaceuticals (same, plus we are going to get healthier, we won't need as many.), Crude Oil (we have way more that you do), Consumer good (again, we can make our own, cheaper)
I seriously do not think you are in the position you think you are!
"BMW now costs 25% more"
That makes it 25% more exclusive. Plus an awful lot of BMWs on the road in the US were made in the US.
"computers (we can make our own, cheaper)"
Maybe 30 years ago. Everything went overseas.
"Pharmaceuticals"
Who holds the patents to the weight loss drugs? The US drug companies tend to hold patents for drugs that do more harm. Oxycontin anyone?
"Crude Oil"
Not all crude oil is the same, the US imports a lot of heavy crude as the local oil is quite light.
"Consumer good (again, we can make our own, cheaper)"
Same as computers.
Before you write a one sided article with a political slant, maybe do some actual research.
$182.1 billion
The U.S. trade deficit with the European Union was $182.1 billion in 2022, with the U.S. exporting $237.9 billion worth of goods from the EU and importing $420.1 billion. The total goods and services trade between the two sides was an estimated $1.3 trillion2.
If the UK and the EU would open their markets to US products, primarily US agricultural products, we wouldn't be having this argument!
The problem with Europeans is they seem to think it's still 1946 and the US is supposed to protect them and prop up their economies to counter the Ruskies! News flash! The people who think that way over here in the US have all grown old and senile! It's a new day!
There is nothing Europe produces we cannot produce here! (Except chocolate, but one can always hope!)
"primarily US agricultural products"
You mean the chemical laced low quality crap you guys eat? Pass! Keep your HFCS to yourself.
"The problem with Europeans is they seem to think it's still 1946 and the US is supposed to protect them and prop up their economies to counter the Ruskies!"
Very very few but they tend to congregate in government. They see it as a way to have military protection without the cost. From the US perspective you get lots of military bases nice and close to the rooskies and can keep the appearance of a world power. Not sure the US could cope if they were not the world police.
"Except chocolate"
Wel now that all the UK's mainstream chocolate makers are owned by Kraft they have decided to make our beloved childhood favourites taste like barf as well.
yep, the entire point of the issue is to keep finances functional, a small level of balance.
If country x spends 3t in country z, then for the balance there should be about the same spent the other direction.
But people want to make it about other crap so they do.
If the UK and the EU would open their markets to US products, primarily US agricultural products, we wouldn't be having this argument!
Err.. No? We prefer real food. America's obesity epidemic tends to suggest many Americans do not, and we have enough of a problem with our own fast & UPF addicts.
The problem with Europeans is they seem to think it's still 1946 and the US is supposed to protect them and prop up their economies to counter the Ruskies! News flash!
No, I think that was the septics who think it's still the 1950s, the Russians are coming and there are Reds under every bed.. Continued by the likes of Clinton and Biden who also imagined Russians everywhere. But then creating a phantom menace has long been a part of US foreign policy, for without an enemy, it gets hard to justify maintaining a $1tn a year military that can regime change countries, thus keeping the threat going, and giving the promblems like immigration to deal with after the US gets bored and abandons the messes it's created. Which was also the Russia challenge. The EU had grown to be a larger economy than the US, and combined with Russia, would have chipped away at US hegemony.
So as Ass Sec Nuland once famously said, "fsck the EU!", and boy, did she..
If we don't keep the reds out of Ukraine then Poland will be next!!!
Sadly the EU has hugely burdened itself with masses of regulation to justify the cost of its existence and held back the growth of member nations. They all clap like seals over the 'forcing apple to adopt usb-c' yet apple was a key player in the design of the interface and had already moved to it for ipads and laptops while the evolution of the iphone was always going to need a more powerful charging system and faster data connection (though only with a special apple brand usb-c).
<......"If the UK and the EU would open their markets to US products, primarily US agricultural products..."....>
This is rubbish!
The UK and EU import a huge amount of agricultural products from the USA - soya, wheat, and maize in particular are imported in considerable quantities.
The commodities that we don't allow to be imported are animal products which your authorities permit to be produced using husbandry practices and prophylactic chemical treatment/use of medicinal products and hormonal growth promoters which farmers in the UK and Europe are banned from using (for very good reasons of both public health and animal welfare). That isn't going to change unless US farmers produce their livestock to similar standards.
For many other things, it isn't so much that the UK and EU are restricting access to their markets, but rather that the US produced goods have limited appeal (all too often because they are of inferior quality or manufactured to a poorer standard than UK/EU produced equivalents. To be quite brutally honest, a lot of American manufactured goods seem to have a manufacturing quality and reliability we would have associated with our UK manufactured goods back in the 1960s and 1970s).
"To be quite brutally honest, a lot of American manufactured goods seem to have a manufacturing quality and reliability we would have associated with our UK manufactured goods back in the 1960s and 1970s)."Oooh, those are harsh words they are. Although pretty fair.
About a decade ago I was in the US and got to see a dominant manufacturer in the market and the standards that they adhered to. They were tragic in their design and build quality... They made all of the parts that their kit was compose of yet still needed a huge number of variable placement holes for bolts because the quality and accuracy was so poor. Seriously, if you build both parts of a frame assembly joint, there is no excuse in needing variable placement holes. Their total lack of quality continued from there, with entirely an separate product line for California because of enhanced toxicity laws in California... so rather than apply enhanced standards everywhere they decided to make a separate line of parts for their California customers.
yet still needed a huge number of variable placement holes"
Now if you'd said it was all bought in from a bunch of subbies, with varying QC levels...
But that's staggering at a time when any large mfg should be pretty much end to end CNC.
I'd guessed that with so much CNC around it would difficult to make parts that aren't quite tightly located.
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