back to article China claims major fusion advance and record after 17-minute Tokamak run

China’s Hefei Institutes of Physical Science has claimed a new world record for maintaining a steady-state high-confinement plasma operation, a feat needed to create a fusion reactor that in theory will produce vast amounts of energy at little cost. The operation was performed in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting …

  1. Joe W Silver badge
    Pint

    Sounds really good...

    ... I am - of course - cautious when such big claims land (look at almost tripling the duration the plasma was stable!), but I really hope they pulled that off. It would show that they are on the right track.

    Though, when I search ITER's homepage I find this article: https://www.iter.org/node/20687/east-demonstrates-1000-second-steady-state-plasma where they report a 1000s plasma confinement - from 2022, record set in 2021.

    Digging a bit deeper: The now reported record is in a different configuration, the so-called high confinement mode, and EAST seems (despite the snark at the end of the comment) to be the preliminary project leading up to bigger (and hopefully working / viable) Tokamaks. One of them is ITER, and China also has the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR).

    1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      Re: Sounds really good...

      AFAIK China is part of ITER and all these projects are cooperating, which is the only the way to progress with fundamental research like this.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Sounds really good...

        Russia is part of the ITER project as well. Unlike China, it exports oil and gas, and sells fission reactors. Why would they want a working fusion reactor? Are they in ITER only to sabotage it?

        1. werdsmith Silver badge

          Re: Sounds really good...

          Where would it leave them if the rest of the world gained fusion and they were kept out of it by sanctions?

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Sounds really good...

            Obviously the goal is to prevent anyone from developing fusion at all.

        2. dsch

          Re: Sounds really good...

          It's almost as if the scientists doing nuclear fusion research in Russia are *different people* from the fossil fuel CEOs.

        3. DS999 Silver badge

          Re: Sounds really good...

          Russia may not want to see it succeed since it would crush their economy if there were no longer buyers for its oil and gas (yes some will still be needed even if everyone used fusion to generate electricity but far lower demand would mean far lower prices and Russia couldn't compete with Saudi Arabia if oil is cheap)

          But they don't want to be left out if the rest of the world figures out fusion. Not that I think ITER will end up being the path that makes it a success....

          1. MachDiamond Silver badge

            Re: Sounds really good...

            "Russia may not want to see it succeed since it would crush their economy if there were no longer buyers for its oil and gas"

            There isn't any fear there. Just look at the list of products and ingredients made from petroleum. After reliable fusion reactors are worked out, they still need to engineer the power conversion gubbins to hook onto the beast so it doesn't something useful. The energy ratios they talk about are electricity in and primarily thermal energy out, but they don't have a single light bulb being powered by it yet. The current goal is to be able to start one up and have it reach steady-state equilibrium.

            1. David Hicklin Silver badge

              Re: Sounds really good...

              " There isn't any fear there. Just look at the list of products and ingredients made from petroleum."

              I think you meant crude oil rather than petroleum as that is just a by-product, but yes the list is long unless we want to go back to clothes being made from just cotton, leather, horsehair and clogs instead of shoes.

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: Sounds really good...

                Clothes made from wool and cotton and silk rather than nylon and polyester?

                You mean I would have to swap my PVC gimp suit for a Latex one ?

        4. Charlie Clark Silver badge

          Re: Sounds really good...

          Russia has done some interesting work in the area in the past, and for a while at least, was constructively engaged in international research. Even now most Russian scientists are keen to exchange ideas with the rest of the world whatever their Czar thinks.

          1. storner

            Re: Sounds really good...

            "tokamak" is indeed a russian word

          2. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Sounds really good...

            If it were only science and math which can be audited and peer reviewed, it wouldn't be an issue. But Russia will be providing some key components:

            https://sciencebusiness.net/russian-participation-iter-nuclear-fusion-project-not-easy-subject-wake-invasion

            If Russian software companies have been banned by the EU and US, then they should be equally suspicious of Russian electronic and mechanical components.

        5. Sub 20 Pilot

          Re: Sounds really good...

          No, because science and scientists are usually working towards a goal and a common good.

          It is the politicians and the greedy fuckers in most nations that would want to sabotage things unless it was something their nation did. The US is typical of the sort of nation that does this. I await the nonsensical bullshit that emanates from the orange crook and his evil overlords as to how China must be stopped from doing this research or to give it away to Musk etc. so that the US can do their bit and then hold the world to ransom with it.

          The cooperation of all nations and people of different religions within organisations such as CERN and ITER should be a model for everyone. Russian scientists in the main want their science to suceed like the ones in the EU, the US and other countries, it is their bad luck that their country is run by a bunch of cunts. Same for scientists in the US.

        6. tojb

          Re: Sounds really good...

          Fair question, despite the downvotes. Many people asked the same thing of Bush and Bush II's governments: for a long time the Americans played hokie-kokie with ITER, democrats were in favour and pledged support, republicans tore it up and left the project floundering with unexpected budget holes. If the current president is smarter and more forward lookinng than George W Bush I would be rather surprised to put it mildly, lets hope he simply doesn't notice the project amid his more lurid preoccupations.

  2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

    It would also be interesting to know what stopped it after 18 minutes. Did it just fizzle, or get too hot, or trip some safety device... ?

    1. Inventor of the Marmite Laser Silver badge

      The crumpets were done, butter and strawberry jam opened and the tea was ready to be poured.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Then the scones appeared, someone put cream on first instead of jam, and all hell broke loose...

        1. Roj Blake Silver badge

          Why would all hell break loose when it's being done the correct way?

          1. werdsmith Silver badge

            18 minutes to brew tea is a stew and far from the right way. Justifiably hell to pay.

          2. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            The vi vs emacs debate wasn't enough for you so you had to start another one?

            :)

          3. Elongated Muskrat Silver badge
            Holmes

            As any fule kno, it's not jam first, or cream first. It's butter first.

            This message has been brought to you by the cholesterol marketing board.

  3. Geoff Johnson

    30 years

    So that's one less thing needed in the rolling 30 years until Fusion arrives.

    1. breakfast
      Thumb Up

      Re: 30 years

      With this, we might be able to bring it down to 29 years 364 days.

    2. disillusioned fanboi
      Boffin

      Re: 30 years

      Point of order, the prediction was in 20 years, starting in 1970.

      https://thebulletin.org/1970/06/controlled-nuclear-fusion-energy-for-the-distant-future/

  4. Swordfish1

    I think eventually with advancements in AI - Nuclear Fusion energy production will be cracked one way or another.

    1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      AI is going to be great at improving processes, but pretty much useless at fundamental research, which is what most of this is about. The work done on fusion has meant pushing physics forward in all kinds of areas and discovering how much we've still got to learn.

      1. Persona Silver badge

        Plasma is tricky stuff. AI is looking good as a control mechanism for dynamically keeping plasma stable.

        1. Wellyboot Silver badge
          Coat

          AI will help because it will also be working correctly in 20 year time

        2. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

          "AI is looking good as a control mechanism for dynamically keeping plasma stable."

          How is it going to learn? :-)

    2. Rattus
      Mushroom

      There is no way I want AI anywhere near this!

      The goal of Fusion power is 24x7x365 operation. AI's goal is to be right most of the time - they are not aligned.

      Nobody in their right mind would put AI at the heart of a safety critical system, and certainly not one in continuous operation.

      but I hear you say I ment AI would be useful with the research....

      Again NO! We need to understand the research results, not just replicate an interesting result from many trail and error attempts (this is also true of pure human research as well)

      Perhaps there is a space for AI to be used to investigate the huge potential solution space, and narrow it down to a smaller list of worth while investigation, but this could also be called a script tweaking each variable one at a time and not AI :-)

      /Rattus

      1. Elongated Muskrat Silver badge

        AI's goal isn't even to be "right most of the time," it is to give an output that is superficially convincing enough to make people think it is right on first inspection.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        AI isn't being used for fundamental research in fusion, rather neural nets are used as high order PDE solvers to provide hard real time control of plasma turbulence.

      3. Richard Boyce

        "24x7x365 operation". That's 365 weeks... :)

        1. lglethal Silver badge
          Trollface

          What you dont want 7 years operation???

        2. Rattus

          ROFL

          I have been working with physicists for too long; +/- 1 order of magnitude either way is good enough....

          /Rattus

        3. jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid Silver badge

          Just don't be anywhere near it at midnight on 28th February, 2028.

      4. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        >Nobody in their right mind would put AI at the heart of a safety critical system

        Control of plasma stability in a Tokamak or a stellarator by having a man in a brown coat adjusting knobs is going to be even harder

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Harry Potter has arrived to save ALL us Muggles !!! or 'The 'snark' is strong in this one !!!' :)

      "I think eventually with advancements in AI - Nuclear Fusion energy production will be cracked one way or another."

      TRANSLATION:

      I hope that AI will 'magically' be 'Better' so that 'magically' (Yes ... again !!!) Nuclear Fusion will be possible by using the AI created 'Magical' technology sustaining a complete Fusion Reaction that is repeatable/nondestructive (yet again ... 'magicical') and therefore can produce MORE energy than is used starting/running the Fusion Reactor.

      TL;DR:

      AI will solve this by 'Magical science', I hope !!! ... we are saved ... Hurrah !!!

      :)

    4. that one in the corner Silver badge

      Thankfully, there are other tricks in the AI researchers' toolbar than the LLMs that are continually being pushed at us at the moment.

      Some of these tricks even use Neural Nets, such as those that look for patterns amongst the noise - and then explicitly print out where it found those patterns and all the other places in the data that it found matches of varying degrees. So that humans can then evaluate the results and use them to guide where to look next. Rather, to order all the places they could look next, as if one apparently likely avenue doesn't succeed they won't have dropped the others just because the computer told them to (although funding bodies are another matter).

      Of course, in the world of Big Science these techniques are all old hat now, been around for decades (but are cheaper to do now, surprise) and everyone concerned would be amazed if they weren't already being used, alongside all the other data reduction methods. But, if it works it is no longer AI...

      The patterns found via these AI techniques can lead to new ideas to be researched, by many people and with much effort. It won't be one big leap from a single LLM run that miraculously describes The Big New Nobel-Prize Winning Idea.

      1. Elongated Muskrat Silver badge

        I'm not being funny here, but "principal components analysis" and similar multi-dimensional pattern analysis techniques were things I was being taught about at university in the mid '90s (and it wasn't a maths degree), decades before someone in marketing decided to brand large statistical models as "AI".

        1. werdsmith Silver badge

          I'm not being funny here, but "principal components analysis" and similar multi-dimensional pattern analysis techniques were things I was being taught about at university in the mid '90s (and it wasn't a maths degree), decades before someone in marketing decided to brand large statistical models as "AI".

          I did a machine learning / AI course and one of the sections was suggesting that linear regression uses a form of ML and some time was spent on creating one from scratch.

          Who knew that Excel has been ML enabled since the 90s?

          1. that one in the corner Silver badge

            Hey, matchboxes can learn to play Noughts and Crosses.

            Who knew that John Walker's products[1] had been ML enabled since 1826?

            (more serious point being that, yes, linear regression - and many other bits of number crunching[2] - do exhibit behaviours that are exploited in the field of Machine Learning. That ends up making (parts of) ML seem trivial, but then, "if it works it isn't AI (any longer)[3]".

            [1] oh, okay, given that MENACE used more than 300 boxes, Walker probably didn't sell enough to make a complete one :-(

            [2] autocorrelation springs immediately to mind, for some reason

            [3] just trying out a different way of phrasing that

        2. that one in the corner Silver badge

          > "principal components analysis" and similar multi-dimensional pattern analysis techniques were things I was being taught about at university in the mid '90s

          Absolutely. PCA is a good example of

          >> alongside all the other data reduction methods

          and is still holding up its end of the job after, um, nearly one and a quarter centuries. Depending upon which named variant you decide to go with.

          > decades before someone in marketing decided to brand large statistical models as "AI"

          Yeah, well, the current marketing hype is pissing on both the good parts of Neural Nets *and* the term "AI" as well. Look how many responses here are based on the assumption that "AI" only means LLMs and similarly ill-defined systems and the from that the cry that "I'd never want AI anywhere near Fusion Power"! When this latest AI Bubble bursts there will, once again, be a backlash from the funding guys against 'Nets and anything else tainted by "AI".

          If we try our best to ignore those shouty people, there are lots of discussions to be had about where methods such as PCA live in comparison to the general field of AI[1] - if you just go to the Wikipedia page they are lumping PCA into "a series on Machine learning and data mining" (sic) when you can be *pretty* sure that its use in those fields is more recent than its use in mechanics. On a similar note, Bayes did all his finest work before 1763 and his Theorem was taught in school[2] well before the headmasters ever learnt of Electronic Brains, yet chances are when you hear his name mentioned now it'll be in relation to its use in works coming from "the AI labs" (and confusingly not always when his particular Theorem is being used, sigh). Or filtering email (which is ML, btw). Or not at all, as Expert Systems were the victims of an earlier AI Bubble and now all very infra dig.

          [1] at the (very great risk) of trivialising, such as: On the one hand, having done calculations on a particular data set, we have improved visibility of what is interesting in *that* data - and can go off and make use of that to determine things about the specific situation (e.g. experimental setup) that generated the data. On the other hand, we can look to see if we can borrow those results and use them to look at this *other* data set, without repeating all of the analytics again, and fingers crossed we'll be able to spot if there is anything interesting here that warrants a closer look (i.e. actually doing all the sums to get a properly defined result). The further you stray from the (situation that generated the) original data set, the less, um, demonstrably correct that quick answer is. But if it is still correct enough to guide a decision, say which is the better next step to take whilst walking this graph...

          [2] even if only to really put the wind up students who were getting cocky about "understanding probability"! That'll learn them.

          1. Rattus

            You are right, 100% correct, the term AI covers much much more than LLMs

            but being correct doesn't mean what it used to either. You are "technically correct", the new truth, the term AI, as far as the press and busines, indeed almost anyone outside of the fields on ML now (unfortunately) exclusively means LLMs,

            Its even got to the point where we now talk about ML and not AI when talking about products that work :-)

            I lament the change of definition...

            But then, to me, a Billion is still a million million (10^12) not a thousand million (10^9)

            Summer (in the UK) starts in May (and not the day following Midsummer's eve - doh!)

            /Rattus

    5. Elongated Muskrat Silver badge

      Give AI the job of developing a nuclear fusion reactor? It can't even do fingers right. Don't worry though about your town being replaced by a crater, it'll just hallucinate some positive results.

  5. Pascal Monett Silver badge
    Stop

    "not peer-reviewed work"

    China regularly spurts out record claims in almost every domain, and many of them are either debunked or unverifiable.

    If they really did this, it is a Good Thing(TM), but until I hear reports of scientific confirmation, I'm going to refrain from congratulating them.

    1. Mage Silver badge

      Re: "not peer-reviewed work"

      At least they aren't claiming Cold Fusion.

      1. Spherical Cow Silver badge

        Re: "not peer-reviewed work"

        I worked with ColdFusion for a couple of years. Not my favourite markup language.

  6. imanidiot Silver badge

    Tokamaks do it in a chamber, often doughnut-shaped

    The very definition of a Tokamak is that it uses an axially symmetrical torus, so not only is it "often' doughnut-shaped, it's ALWAYS doughnut-shaped. There's a spherical variant, but that's always specified with the "Spherical" qualifier. But since it also has a center pole, you could argue it's still a donut shaped chamber, just one with a very thin hole

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Tokamaks do it in a chamber, often doughnut-shaped

      I must admit I like the look of the stellarator configuration more, even though it does my head in. I suspect the first one was designed by M. C. Escher :).

      1. imanidiot Silver badge
        Boffin

        Re: Tokamaks do it in a chamber, often doughnut-shaped

        My understanding (though I'm very very far from that particular field of engineering) is that while the stellarator has some advantages over a Tokamak in terms of field confinement it trades those advantages in against other disadvantages in plasma control. It doesn't seem to - on balance - be better or worse than a Tokamak. I'm most interested to see what will come from ITER once it's finally come online.

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: Tokamaks do it in a chamber, often doughnut-shaped

          The big advantage of a stellarator is that it can run continuously - handy for a power plant.

          Tokamaks are more like transformers, they are only stable while the field is changing - so you can run for a few minutes (hopefully eventually an hour) then you have to dump and restart.

          A power plant would need lots of machines ramping up and down to give a constant heat supply

  7. Chris Gray 1
    Trollface

    Lego model!

    We need a detailed Lego model of that thing! With descriptive material that describes what each chunk is and what it does. Would be fairly fiddly, but not too much repetition.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Lego model!

      I am pretty sure that LEGO would produce a WORKING model WELL before any AI would be solving the problem.

      I am 'noting' that Neural Nets, LLMs and all manner of things are being 'lumped' together as 'AI'.

      This is a one hell of a 'stretch' to continue the 'AI' scam ...

      None of these things are 'AI' !!!

      BUT some of these things MAY be useful for SOME aspects of solving specific problems.

      LLM 'guesswork' is NOT under ANY circumstances one of the things that will solve this problem or even part of the problem.

      If we are going to use LLMs ... we may as well go to the 'Magic 8 Ball' and see which is more sucessful.

      P.S.

      Please give some warning IF this 'solving strategy' is used as I would like to be 'somewhere else', for a large value of 'ELSE' !!!

      :)

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Lego model!

      Any amount of molten multi-coloured plastic will do - as plastic sucks at magnetic containment you can claim that a successful ignition melted the reactor.

      :)

  8. sitta_europea Silver badge

    Quoting the article:

    "... gases that are heated to high temperatures and subjected to enormous pressure ..."

    The pressure record seems to stand at about two atmospheres, so I'm not so sure about the 'enormous' bit:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power#Records

    1. that one in the corner Silver badge

      As the comment following yours notes, there does seem to be some confusion in the article about comparing the gasses insideTokamaks to the condition of the gasses within Lawrence Livermore's National Ignition Facility[1]

      [1] always found that name a bit worrying, especially after learning about the fears that the Manhattan Project would set our atmosphere aflame; Los Alamos didn't manage that, but LLNL does have lasers and one misapplied aquatic creature later...

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      ... gases that are heated to high temperatures and subjected to enormous pressure ...

      Wait, are we talking about fusion, or events Saturday evening post-curry?

  9. sitta_europea Silver badge

    Quoting the article:

    "... Here on Earth, creating hot plasma requires so much energy that Tokamaks didn’t verifiably make more energy than they consumed until a 2023 experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the USA. ..."

    Except that in the linked document the experiment described was inertial confinement in a pellet of fuel illuminated by lasers, which does not even remotely resemble a tokamak.

    1. Elongated Muskrat Silver badge

      Yes, and "consumed" is a massive misnomer, because it wasn't the amount of energy consumed, it was the amount of energy delivered to the pellet under inertial confinement. As pointed out by others here, the lasers in use in this case were about 1% efficient, so it's still two orders of magnitude out on the energy actually consumed. You'd probably need another two orders of magnitude to cope with loss if you managed tog et the output to do useful work, and then several more to make it an economical form of energy generation. As others have, again, pointed out, this is only useful for weapons research. I think most people would agree that developing new nuclear weapons isn't exactly something the human race needs.

  10. anothercynic Silver badge

    A good achievement...

    ... If true. The data ought to show that, but whether that'll be made available is another question.

    Either way... if it *is* true, it's pretty good going, and hopefully leads to longer runs and an actual net energy output that can be sustained.

  11. MachDiamond Silver badge

    Fun with the Sun

    Yes, the sun is a fusion reactor. The downside is that it's not particularly a very dense energy system. It's so big that it's better that it isn't or the Goldilocks zone would be out around Uranus. We aren't trying to replicate the sun on Earth, but make a Sun^3 or more that's perfectly safe and has no byproducts.

  12. Dr Kerfuffle

    There are 2 technologies that we urgently need in the UK

    1) Fusion Power

    2) Room temperature superconductivity.

    There is no point in generating vast amounts of power if up to 10% of it is lost just moving around the country. Every power line, pylon and underground cable has resistance which drains the power.

    Swapping out these cables for superconductors (probably at great expense!) would immediately make power transmission more efficient.

    Plus the devices that use the power could also be vastly more efficient .

    1. sitta_europea Silver badge

      "... There is no point in generating vast amounts of power if up to 10% of it is lost just moving around ..."

      Oh, come on, that's lost in the noise.

      Typically solar panels throw away 80% of the incident energy, and thermal power stations throw away 60% of the heat, before the electricity that they generate even reaches the grid.

    2. jdiebdhidbsusbvwbsidnsoskebid Silver badge

      "There is no point in generating vast amounts of power if up to 10% of it is lost just moving around the country"

      I disagree. I think there is no point inventing room temperature superconductivity to reclaim that last 10% when fusion derived electricity is so plentiful in the first place. As someone else here has pointed out, that distribution loss is not the biggest loss in the whole system.

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        High voltage DC loses about 3.5% per 1000km

        You could run ITER in Toulose and still have 97% of the power in London

        1. MachDiamond Silver badge

          "High voltage DC loses about 3.5% per 1000km

          You could run ITER in Toulose and still have 97% of the power in London"

          Regardless of that, the cost per km to run lines x1000km means it won't get funded. Every pylon will come with a NIMBY lawsuit attached.

          1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            >Regardless of that, the cost per km to run lines x1000km means it won't get funded. Every pylon will come with a NIMBY lawsuit attached.

            The first 800km will be in France, then the electricity can be put in boxes and placed on a cart to be taken to London

    3. Elongated Muskrat Silver badge

      The things known as "room temperature" superconductors are typically complex ceramic compounds, made with rare earth metals, where "room temperature" means "will operate without exotic cooling" not "actually at room temperature". If you want to check down the back of the sofa for the squillions of quid replacing the power transmission with unobtainum would cost, let us know when you've found it m'kay? Then we can talk about how these fragile ceramic wires keep breaking.

    4. MachDiamond Silver badge

      "There is no point in generating vast amounts of power if up to 10% of it is lost just moving around the country."

      So don't make it all in one place and send it long distances from there. It's also a good idea to site large generation plants near to heavy industries or create a new site with generation at its core and encourage heavy industrial users to locate facilities there in addition to companies that have a use for the "waste" heat. I really wonder when I see power plants all on their own and its wires fanning out on a forest of pylons.

  13. /\/\j17

    Selective maths

    "Tokamaks didn’t verifiably make more energy than they consumed until a 2023 experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the USA"

    Yea, but from memory only just and only if you purely measured the energy required to maintain the plasma and ignored the gigawatts required to get it up and running in the first place.

    1. IJD

      Re: Selective maths

      It was worse than that -- they only counted laser energy in vs. fusion energy out, ignoring the fact that IIRC the laser was less than 1% efficient so that even with a perfect fusion energy-electrical power conversion (where can I get one please?) they're a coupe of orders of magnitude away from being self-sustaining. Also difficult to see how ultra-short laser-driven fusion pulses can ever be any use for sustainable power generation, as opposed to nuclear weapons research... ;-)

    2. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: Selective maths

      The LLNL was a laser ignintion of a fuel pellet not a Tokamak. The nearest to break even for a Tokamak plasma was JET at Culham it managed about 2/3 of the fusion power out compared to the heating power in

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