Microsoft "Pivoted", now the target is Win12 dominance
After this debacle, Win11 will be sacrificed in the altar of Win12, to produce what Microsoft always wanted, a Windows Client ecosystem where all client machines are on pretty much the same version of Windows.
Win10 has not one, but many expiration dates.
Plain Win10 22H2 Oct next year
Win10 LTSC 21H2 Oct 2026
Plain Win10 22H2 + ESU Oct 2026/27/28
Win10 LTSC 19H1 ~ late 2029 ~ Early 2023
Win10 IoT 21H2 ~Early 2032
Many orgs, speciall the larger ones, can jump from one to the other with relative ease.
This gives ample time for Win11 to run its course near the end of life for Win10. Perhaps it will completely run out of support a few month before Win10, or most likely, a few months after Win10.
Most Likely, Win11 WILL NOT have an ESU (just like Vista and 8.x did not have ESUs). For this to come to fruition, Microsoft will have to anounce the EOL of Win11, and launch Win12 in the 2026~2028 timeframe.
But, I have to be transparent. Since the Win Client and Win Server codebases are the same, Microsoft can increase the support span of the client easily by using the server stuff, since server Lifecycles are longer.
But, even with that caveat, come 2032, whether you are still in Win10, or in Win11, if you want to stay in Windows, your only option will be Win12 (of course, Linux, android and xBSD are options too).
And since by then the TPU and Secureboot requirements will be more than 10 years old (and mandated for OEMs since 2018), and since the 40 TOPS NPU requirement will be 8 Y/O by then, you can expect that, except for niche cases, all reasonable client machines in 2032 will be compatible with Win12
As for other Win12 client Requirements, expect something similar to Win12 + Copilot. PErhaps a few tweaks to main memory (to be able to keep a couple of small ML/AI models in RAM), Video driver level from WDDM 2.0 to 2.4 (for added stability) and from HWL 11 to HWL 12.x (for more functionality and performance), and AVX-2 (or AVX2 + AVX-VNNI and/or AVX-IFMA) or worst case scenario, AVX-10 instead of the current SSE4.2.
And of course, the NPU may demand slightly more than 40TOPS. but then again, most chips with NPUs that make the cut now now EXCEEED 40TOPS. Oh, and SSDs will be mandatory.
So, for pretty much anyone, their best bet is to hang on to their current machine for dear life (with any flavour of Win10 or Win11), and wait until the Win12 minimum requirements are anounced.