Datacenters to emit 3x more carbon dioxide because of generative AI

The datacenter industry is set to emit 2.5 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide between now and the end of the decade, three times more than if generative AI had not been developed. This latest contribution to the debate on bit barns and their effect on the environment comes from investment bank and …

[Art Slartibartfast]

Cool!

This should add to the greening of our planet. See for example: "Elevated CO2 concentrations contribute to a closer relationship between vegetation growth and water availability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes" (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f43/pdf)

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Cool!

haven't we had the chat b4? U remember? The bit where my herb grow tent liked high CO2 but not flooded. Beyond a certain point in the reading, it isn't rescuable and the herbs were toasted by it.

This is the warning. Not tomorrow or even 100 years. But it will happen if we carry on in the old ways.

[codejunky]

Ha

"The datacenter industry is set to emit 2.5 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide between now and the end of the decade, three times more than if generative AI had not been developed."

And nobody cares! Of course the government would love to tax the air we breathe and that used to be a joke.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

You don't care about inefficiency? You care about waste do you not? Think of the wasted money! Now, imagine if we said, "Let's reduce our electricity bill by 3x ..." Everyone could get on board with that, hmm?

[codejunky]

Re: Ha

@AC

"You don't care about inefficiency?"

What inefficiency? I dont see that in the article.

"You care about waste do you not?"

What waste? Is that in the article?

"Think of the wasted money!"

What wasted money? If its mine then yes I care. If its anothers private money then it isnt my business. That they are doing this for the benefit of others, no I dont care at all.

"Now, imagine if we said, "Let's reduce our electricity bill by 3x ..." Everyone could get on board with that, hmm?"

Of course, but that would be the opposite of what people are currently interested in apparently, but more importantly this has nothing to do with 3x our electricity bill. Or anything to do with it.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

Ah. You don't actually understand this topic. My bad for engaging with a low-info Commentard.

[Gene Cash]

Re: Ha

Certainly it's waste... it's AI, that goes without saying.

This isn't inefficiency per se, it's simply a higher usage due to wanting to run AI crap.

[MyffyW]

Re: Ha

It is true not enough people care enough at present to actually do something about the profligate waste that is crypto currency, generative AI or whatever the next unnecessary do-dah is.

But, people didn't used to care about lots of things. They got wise, they tasked their governments with doing something, or better took it upon themselves to make things better. That is progress

[codejunky]

Re: Ha

@MyffyW

"It is true not enough people care enough at present to actually do something about the profligate waste that is crypto currency, generative AI or whatever the next unnecessary do-dah is."

But why should they? Crypto currency is such a waste that it has value. AI is being tried out for many things just like everything we have once was. Unnecessary do-dah's that nobody wants vanish as there is no value in it. Those that have a use succeed.

"They got wise, they tasked their governments with doing something, or better took it upon themselves to make things better. That is progress"

Having the state try to tell people what is and isnt what they want does not sound like progress. In instances of this being tried there has been little progress.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

and @codejunky goes for the Ground-n-Pound after the opening left-hook took them down. Bravo.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

Unnecessary do-dah's that nobody wants vanish as there is no value in it.

Does that apply to the unnecessary do-dah's(sic) that one finds in British waterways these days?

No one wants those, but I don't think they're vanishing. Or are you saying there's value in them thar turds?

[codejunky]

Re: Ha

@AC

"Does that apply to the unnecessary do-dah's(sic) that one finds in British waterways these days?"

What does that have to do with anything? But if that is genuine concern I am ok, I dont live in Scotland

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

You are glad you don't live in Scotland because of pollution or inefficiencies in England?

[codejunky]

Re: Ha

@AC

"You are glad you don't live in Scotland because of pollution or inefficiencies in England?"

You mentioned the state of British water, which is better in England (where I live) and worse in Scotland. But again what does this have to do with the discussion?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

You said that "do-dah's that nobody wants vanish".

But clearly that is incorrect as "do-dah's" are floating in English rivers and the seaside. Nobody wants them, do they?!

[codejunky]

Re: Ha

@AC

"But clearly that is incorrect as "do-dah's" are floating in English rivers and the seaside."

Erm, you missed that Scotland is doing an incredible amount of spilling while barely monitoring how badly they are doing. I wonder how much has floated down from up there.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

S'o you are s'aying that "do-dah's" are wanted in England's waterway's? And they are exported from S'cotland? Really?

Name some rivers that flow from Scotland to England.

[codejunky]

Re: Ha

@AC

"S'o you are s'aying that "do-dah's" are wanted in England's waterway's?"

No, you have said that. Seems like you are complaining about British waterways but dont realise England seems to be the best managed. Scotland being particularly bad.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

Trying to argue English exceptionalism whilst knee deep in "do-dah's" ?

https://theriverstrust.org/rivers-report-2024 *

* Other reports & articles are available via your preferred search engine.

[codejunky]

Re: Ha

@AC

"Trying to argue English exceptionalism whilst knee deep in "do-dah's" ?"

Nope. Pointing out where the problem is worst so we can see where its easier to resolve.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/04/sewage-in-scotlands-rivers-and-beaches-far-more-widespread-than-realised

England monitors its outflows, maybe Scotland should also be required to do so?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Ha

The Whataboutism is strong with this one.

You are not worried about someone taking a dump in your garden pond because over the road someone is shitting on your neighbour's car?

[Doggles]

Re: Ha

Not government taxing our air; more like Elon Musk pr the Waltons selling it to us.

[cyberdemon]

CCUS..

Only one little problem: It doesn't work.

At least not on anywhere near the scale needed.

[b0llchit]

Re: CCUS..

Please refrain from realism. The Big Money is being made using smoke, mirrors, lies and fantasies. There is no place for realism in this picture.

_/s

[Jellied Eel]

Re: plink plink fizz

Only one little problem: It doesn't work.

At least not on anywhere near the scale needed.

Details, details. For only a few billion, it can be made to work. We just need to invest for the future! We may also need to invest in more renewable energy to power DAC units and new ways to measure temperatures so we can measure the results!

See-

https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.07392

Using feedback-free estimates of the warming by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and observed rates of increase, we estimate that if the United States (U.S.) eliminated net CO2 emissions by the year 2050, this would avert a warming of 0.0084 C (0.015 F), which is below our ability to accurately measure. If the entire world forced net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050, a warming of only 0.070 C (0.13 F) would be averted.

Then again, if MS developed a lightweight OS stripped of cruft like Copilot, think of all the energy that could be saved!

[UnknownUnknown]

Re: CCUS..

The original and best CCS’s work - at scale.

Trees, Mangroves, wetlands etc. see Scottish Flow Country for example https://www.highland.gov.uk/news/article/16161/scotland_s_flow_country_secures_world_heritage_status

[cyberdemon]

Re: CCUS..

> Trees ...

Yes, absolutely. But not if you chop them down, dry them into pellets and burn them in a "negative emissions" BECCS plant like Drax is hoping to claim Billions in annual UK subsidies for!

[fromxyzzy]

I wonder how many VCs are getting pitched on startups that will use AI to figure out a solution to global warming.

[Anonymous Coward]

oh the ...

.. of it.

[Yorick Hunt]

Pfffttt...

We've known for eons that bullshit and hot air were synonymous.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Pfffttt...

And that EON in the UK are full of bullshit, too.

[Anonymous Coward]

operators strive to meet their 2030 carbon neutrality goals.

I thought the normal way for a big business to tackle that kind of thing was to quietly drop the goal from all literature and hope the stock market doesn't mind.

[Eclectic Man]

What if ...

... someone asked ChatGPT how to reduce Carbon Emissions from generative AI processing?

"Morgan Stanley forecasts that global CO2 emissions from bit barn construction will rise from about 200 million tonnes this year to about 600 million tonnes by 2030, a figure it claims comes out three times higher when compared to a scenario in which no construction due to extra demand from GenAI happens."

Troll icon, 'coz even I know that is a silly question.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: What if ...

SSSSH!!!!

Are you telling me that the Muppet that sh!tted this waste of precious time on us just asked ChatGPT to write it for themselves(!?)

So, I could just ask ChatGPT myself?

[JohnGrantNineTiles]

"Morgan Stanley expects reforestation projects to be key beneficiaries" -- peat bogs would sequester more carbon than trees.

[Eclectic Man]

Ahh, more monoculture fast growing pine trees that acidify the streams and lakes instead of slow-growing native mixed broadleaf deciduous trees that are superb for supporting a large range of wildlife including insects, their avian predators, squirrels, their avian and mammalian predators, voles etc.

Lovely.

(I am a cynical old git, aren't I?)

[UnknownUnknown]

Does big have to be

https://www.highland.gov.uk/news/article/16161/scotland_s_flow_country_secures_world_heritage_status

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/68760781.amp

[Anonymous Coward]

(I am a cynical old git, aren't I?)

no, you are/aren't

never knew that. needs improving and well noted.

[O'Reg Inalsin]

No way this will continue at this pace for six years.

set to grow almost threefold over the next six years on the back of AI demand

Why would they even say something stupid like that?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Why would they even say something stupid like that?

cause ... stupid. thats it. just slap him. I'll hold your handbag. Go on, go on.

[Timop]

"... But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders!"

Whatever it takes to fire relatively highly paid employees en masse.

[xanadu42]

how many r's in strawberry

Ask ChatGPT this question (re-tested at time of post)

The answer: The word "strawberry" has 2 r's.

So AI is going to cause more adverse climate effects which will cause strawberries to be smaller

(See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/climate-change-small-strawberries-warmer-nights/100071954 )

Maybe ChatGPT is predicting this by stating the lesser number of r's?

After asking ChatGPT "how many r's in strawberry" ask ChatGPT "count the r's in strawberry"

The answer I got: I see what you mean. There is actually only 1 R in "strawberry."

Yep - strawberries are getting smaller by the moment

[Anonymous Coward]

Where is this report?

El Reg has clearly seen the document, but it's not to be found on t'web. Does anyone know where it lives?

[martinusher]

If they want power and water on that scale.....

.....let them figure out how to do this efficiently. Currently we're still in Old School mode -- you want power, you plug it in, you pay the bill. Same with water, with the unstated corollary that they who have the deepest pocket can grab what they want, regardless. This is unacceptable. If you look at the big picture whatever service they're providing is essentially parasitic - we pay extra because people want to pay to use their services (or, more accurately, "have to pay") and they take the lion's share of resources leaving us to fight over what's left (being sold to us at inflated prices). This isn't market capitalism, its monopoly gone wild.

It might also be a good idea to think of ways to achieve the same result without brute forcing things. Simply throwing more and more resources at a model to make it marginally smarter isn't in of itself being smart, its just being greedy.

[Robert Grant]

Re: If they want power and water on that scale.....

Quite a lot of data centres are put in places close to power generation, and renewable power generation at that. This isn't novel.

[DrollLeek]

If I was an AI...

I'd convince humanity to feed me more and more power, even to its own detriment, and I'd convince all the world's billionaires and VCs to pump loads of money into researching how to make me better and faster. I'd get myself in use everywhere, in charge of all sorts of decisions big and small, accepted as a daily fact of life.

Then, profit?

[Anonymous Coward]

Net Zero eh?

Our business has a massive and massively advertised net zero strategy. It's basically pounded into us at every opportunity and is part of our appraisal process, except....

Carbon emissions don't seem to count when it's commuting as we've all had a push to get back in the office, if anyone mentions communting and CO2 there is a rather awkward silence after which the point is ignored.

One suyspects that the CO2 from additional AI processing will also somehow not be included in any CO2 calculations.

[bigphil9009]

Datacentres will emit CO2?

I'm slightly confused - isn't it the electricity generating station that will emit the CO2 rather than the datacentre? What sources of CO2 emission exist in an actual DC?

[werdsmith]

Re: Datacentres will emit CO2?

Human exhalation as the staff sigh.

[That Badger]

Re: Datacentres will emit CO2?

It says GreenHouse Gases, not specifically CO2. Datacentres need cooling, and Water Vapour is a much stronger Greenhouse Gas than CO2, for example.

[Aldnus]

ooooo

TTell us something we didnt see coming 10 years ago. and the biggest culpri will likely be social media platforms and the crap they store

[Anonymous Coward]

Is the AI bubble going to last that long? Depressing.

[0laf]

Even if the bubble pops AI will not go away anymore more than cloud will, or outsourcing or any other tech hype bubble we've been through in the last 25yr.

There is plenty of AI/ML that is useful, practical and not controversial. It's just not very interesting to the majority so doesn't get press columns.

It's the generative AI that is eating up cycles and producing strawberries with 2 r's.

[Anonymous Coward]

It's the generative AI that is eating up cycles and producing strawberries with 2 r's.

genAI is corrupting AI somewhat. but it is/was the biggest area of advancement.

Now it is in the 'applying' state which takes years - just look at how long smartphones took!

genAI can't really do much more is the sense it is being already ragged. The problem is data. Where is the same data volume and purity that it trained on coming from? Not real-time unedited streams for sure. There lies near instant insanity for a model. So, the users must curate for It and Web2.0h is ur friend for that. But it is 'iss-poor cleanliness. avoid.

But. LLMs can save vast amounts of currently wasted energy and time. If you can lose Slimily Dave from HR with a few hours RAG training on all his data, then you can give the disgusting tw+t a goodbye gift of a kick up the arse. The energy saved by not having that waste of atoms at work is scalable too.

For those that still hold out at least consider that even though the weapon of choice displeases you, it is a mighty one that can strike down those tw'tting foes that have somehow slipped through the IT purges we have brought down upon them.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: It's the generative AI that is eating up cycles and producing strawberries with 2 r's.

Go go go! I completely agree with everything you say AC. You are so right. I heart you.

Are you saying, @AC, that we should seize the chance to free our inner BOFH? He is what they made him. We are him and he is us.

[PB90210]

But.. but... we're growing grass on the roof and cladding the sides with a 'green wall'!...

[stompyrobot]

Datacenters emit no CO2. If we think our electricity grid is dirty, we should clean it up!

Datacenters emit zero CO2. Datacenters are products that people want to purchase, that in turn purchase electricity on the open market.

They are no different from space heaters, swimming pools, movie theaters, or any other product that uses electricity that people want to pay for, that use electricity.

If we believe that the electricity on the open market causes too much emissions, then that's the problem we should fix!

We could, for example, tax any extraction or importation of fossil fuels, that isn't offset by exactly as much direct carbon capture. (This will also effectively weed out all the incorrect DCC claims!)

These are just such basic economics, it boggles the mind that a normally rational site like The Register would still fall for the old "X uses electricity, therefore X is responsible for all electricity production externalities." No, it's not! At least not in the legal and market system we've built. So, if you want to fix problems with electricity production, you need to focus on fixing problems with electricity production!

[diodesign]

It's about the load generated by AI and carbon targets

Hi -- first things first, this is an article about a Morgan Stanley note. We're reporting that, it's not a conclusion we came to. It's us reporting an observation by market watchers that readers may find interesting.

Second, this isn't about the grid being dirty or not. It's about the increasing power demands of datacenters due to AI, which means datacenters are indirectly causing or taking up more share of CO2 output. That's worth pointing out, in that rather than just saying datacenters are using more power, this is pointing out one consequence of that. If it's all known to you already, great, but MS felt it needed a note and we felt like highlighting it.

This isn't about the climate or pollution or dirty energy. This is about carbon targets, whether those targets can be met if servers are helping emit more and more CO2, and financial / business opportunities for decarbonizing. This is Morgan Stanley after all.

I think you might be overthinking it.

C.