Nvidia's growth slows to a mere 122 percent but it’s still topping expectations Nvidia has again achieved triple-digit year-over-year growth, but its expansion is slowing. The GPU giant today revealed Q2 2025 revenue of $30.04 billion – up 122 percent for the year. But it's also rather less than the 262 percent, 265 percent, and 206 percent year-over-year growth the chip shop reported in Q1 2025, Q4 2024 …
Possibly or alternatively shipping to Singapore and then the customer ships somewhere else (eg China,Hong Kong, Iran,North Korea,Russia) or company setup in Singapore shipping somewhere else and then that customer ships to destination country.
It's possible although less likely that suddenly Singapore has grown as a place for shell companies or offshore subsidiaries for GPUs that much for non sanctions busting reasons. I know it has been popular in the past for tax minimisation and avoidance.
I wonder how many Chinese companies simply redirected their orders to subsidiaries data centres in non sanctioned countries , or to dedicated cloud resources they rent. Ie the Chinese companies effectively control the compute it's just under a subsidiary now or in someone else's data centre or cloud.
China has a mix of both onshore and offshore strategies with the ideal mix depending upon China future plans and timelines eg invading Taiwan and it's expectation of the risk of further actions by the west.
Ideally China would like sovereign compute with their own designs and manufacturing capabilities but while they are pursuing that and developing it, they still want western infrastructure whether it's sanctioned or not.
China also can also fund dedicated compute infrastructure overseas in different offshore locations depending upon where it expects sanctions and repercussions to bite eg severing fibre optic cables in event of invasion of Taiwan. If China expected to invade one or more countries one strategy would be to build up compute infrastructure and capacity in those countries and then take it over.
An interesting question to ask is who is actually using the ML fad?
Bunch of IT cost and personnel soaked up for months (years?) in many businesses. What you actually get on the end is a toy that your staff play with for half an hour, ask a few questions where responses are completely wrong... Followed by the observation "that's a bag' o shite"; and have no reason to look at it ever again.
Applied statistics is a very potent tool used in the right locations, but trying to use it as some piss-poor text parser that consumes ludicrous amounts of power to run does not stack up.
In the meantime a stack of expensive GPU's in server banks depreciate not doing anything particularly useful.
I don't like the idea of legislation to stop the waste; but perhaps, there is a case for it here.
I took a small short position before the announcement and the shares fell off a cliff. I've no idea what "the market" was expecting, but it's a surefire sign that the stock is overvalued I think. It has for the most part recovered today, but the stock is just a poster child for AI at this point and the way it bounces around by such huge % jumps shows it has little relation to the underpinning business.
IMO buying in at today's prices is very risky. Continued huge growth is priced in, but this might not happen if LLMs turn out to not scale usefully beyond GPT-4 levels. Because then the big capex taps turn off and nVidia goes back to making mere billions as opposed to tens of billions per quarter. Plus, competition in the accelerator space from Google, AMD, Intel and other in-house designs.
On the flipside, if LLMs do continue scaling, or if some other AI technique comes into play that scales...they're going to be selling chips as fast as they can make them until the singularity/utopia/war of the machines and today's prices will look cheap in hindsight.
Drop are mainly coz of China massively moved Ai on theirs supercomputers, and ofc there is a new Ascend 910C Ai card by Huawei, choice of Baidu, ByteDance & China Mobile in a fitst row.
Nvidia Ai ballooning & exaggerated worth will eventually burst, mainly because their projection are based on the good sell in China's market.
I may be confused but I thought fiscal year 2025 was July 1 2024 to June 30 2025, thus we are still in Q1 FY2025, so how can they be announcing revenue from Q2? Or is this predicted revenue, or contractually complete sales which haven't been paid yet but will be in Q2? If that is true surely that's still predicted as people may make more orders?
