back to article NASA mulls using SpaceX in 2025 to rescue Starliner pilots stuck on space station

NASA has shared more details on how it hopes to get Boeing's stricken Starliner craft and its two test pilots safely back to Earth from the International Space Station, if the Calamity Capsule is deemed unsuitable for a crewed return. During a briefing today, Steve Stich, NASA's manager of its Commercial Crew Program; Dana …

  1. Boolian

    Momentary Lapse of Reason.

    Not replete with comments here, may I suggest that it is because everyone's flabber is so gasted that words are inadequate.

    Someone, somewhere, decided to pull the plug on Starliners autonomous undocking capability - what is the expression? "I can't even..."

    Yup, nobody can even, except me, and even I can't.

    1. Anonymous Coward Silver badge
      Holmes

      Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

      It's more likely to be because none of us are at all surprised. We all predicted it much earlier (myself when the crewed launch was announced, others have stated it at other times)

      OK, they're going to have to make some SpaceX suits for Butch and Suni, but that's not an insurmountable problem. And adjust some load calculations, but that's fairly routine.

      I'm just not looking forward to Elon's smugness, but let's put the crew safety above that.

      1. Spazturtle Silver badge

        Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

        "OK, they're going to have to make some SpaceX suits for Butch and Suni, but that's not an insurmountable problem. "

        That's not certain, last year when a Soyuz malfunctioned and they considered brining one of the astronauts down on a Dragon the plan was to just move the seat liner over and strap the astronaut to the floor like cargo.

        1. Irongut Silver badge

          Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

          That's the kind of thing you do in an emergency. However when you've forced two people to be away from their families for 8 months when they were supposed to be away for 8 days and put their lives at greater risk than expected in a tin can that was not fully flight capable you can damn well give them a proper seat on the flight home. This is NASA not RyanAir.

          1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

            Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

            Do astronauts get union overtime rates? Are they on time and a half for everything over 8 days, double time on Sundays?

            1. The Oncoming Scorn Silver badge
              Pint

              Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

              Factor in that a day consists of sun up to sun down & that in 24 hours, the space station makes 16 orbits of Earth, traveling through 16 sunrises and sunsets.

              CHING! Loadsamoney!

          2. Spazturtle Silver badge

            Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

            The issue is that if they take up floor space with 2 extra seats and then the suits they send up don't fit properly then they won't be able to come down in that capsule. Whereas if they leave the floor space clear they can use the existing seat liners and suits which they know fits.

          3. frankvw

            "This is NASA not RyanAir"

            At this point in time I'd rather fly RyanAir than Boing, to be honest.

            1. tip pc Silver badge

              Re: "This is NASA not RyanAir"

              Ryanair only fly Boeing aircraft.

              Specifically 737’s, they even have a specific build of the Max’s just for them.

              A subsidiary, Laura air, does fly airbus a320’s though

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair

        2. Sparkus

          Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

          In the absence of a hot stick and active control inputs during flight, meatbags are indeed 'cargo'.

        3. Eclectic Man Silver badge

          Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

          Not sure, but the g-force experienced on re-entry would surely require a proper seat to avoid serious, possibly fatal injuries to the two astronauts being rescued.

          1. Spazturtle Silver badge

            Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

            The suit and seat liner (which is moulded so the suit perfectly fits in it) is all that is needed to cushion the forces they will be subject to.

        4. StrangerHereMyself Silver badge

          Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

          In an emergency they could simply return in their sleeve-shirts if needed. The space suits are merely for a contingency in case the life support systems fail. They could also pack in more people in one Dragon (up to seven) with everyone simply holding on to something. It's not optimal, but still much better than dying.

        5. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

          "the plan was to just move the seat liner over and strap the astronaut to the floor like cargo."

          Did this on the way to the Gulf War from Germany in a Hercules transport. Take-off, turbulence and landing, the loadmaster strapped me down as there were no more seats due to cargo. 11 hour journey total with 2.5 hours stuck in Cyprus waiting for a fuel bowser. Stepped off the tail gate and air-raid sirens went off for the SCUD attack that killed 26 Americans in Bahrain.

          Today, when I hear people complain about airliner leg room, I mentally go back to that time and am thankful I have a seat.

    2. Groo The Wanderer Silver badge

      Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

      "Calamity" is such a fitting name for a Boeing product, isn't it?

    3. mcswell

      Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

      No, but my gast is definitely flabbered.

    4. Binraider Silver badge

      Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

      Feature creep, even after deployment. Exacerbated by terrible management philosophy and lack of attention to what capabilities are actually required.

      Manned and unmanned docking, station keeping; approach and departure, and controlled re-entry. That doesn't seem a terribly long list of requirements and more or less is the same list that Gemini had to achieve in the 1960s.

      How on earth Boeing continue to get contracts for anything is (almost) beyond me. You don't hear of such problems with Super Hornet. So what's the difference. The customer probably being a whole lot hotter on auditing?

    5. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

      If they had sent up Felix Baumgartnet they wouldn’t be in this pickle.

      1. The Oncoming Scorn Silver badge
        Joke

        Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

        Boeing....

        Started this year with a door, that decided it didn't want to be a part of the plane anymore & underwent a messy seperation, to a door that has decided it wants to enter into a new permanent relationship with the ISS.

        1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge
          Joke

          Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

          Are you implying the Boeing doors have Genuine People Personalities?

          1. The Oncoming Scorn Silver badge
            Boffin

            Re: Momentary Lapse of Reason.

            Probably more personality than the entirety of Boeing's C-Suite.

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

    I called this 27 days ago !!!

    https://forums.theregister.com/forum/all/2024/07/11/boeings_starliner/#c_4892985

    Once again, cue the music, lights and action ...

    https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=YlvjXTSl6fw

    :)

    1. druck Silver badge

      Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

      Are the two astronauts up for turning a 12 day mission into a 6 month stay?

      They only cancelled the milk until Tuesday.

      1. Arthur the cat Silver badge

        Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

        They only cancelled the milk until Tuesday.

        Who's feeding the cat?

        1. JohnMurray

          Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

          Every other house around - like normally

      2. Paul Cooper

        Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

        Never mind that - have they done their Tax returns? Jack Swigert had a problem with that on Apollo 13!

    2. martinusher Silver badge

      Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

      You're not the only one. I called it immediately after the SNAFU was announced as well.

      This isn't some piece of software that gets pushed out and 'hopefully should work' == but even if it doesn't the result's merely inconvenient and expensive. This is essentially an untried prototype that was sent up even though the original test mission ended in failure due a software 'problem'. This capsule may be perfectly OK but for some seals but it would be prudent to get the crew down on a SpaceX (or -- Horror! -- Progress) capsule and bring the Starliner back uncrewed. If everything works, great. If it doesn't then Boeing has just avoided vaporizing two humans just because some MBAs needed to save face.

      I'd love to see the cost justification for this capsule. It has to have brought some pretty damn fantastic functionality to the table to be worth tolerating it being so late and over budget -- and, sorry, "not Russian" isn't good enough.

      1. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

        Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

        Firm fixed price contract based on milestones. Boeing are over budget. NASA is on budget. Cancelling now takes NASA off the hook for further milestones. It reduces Boeing's costs but also cancels any further income from the contract. Boeing will then recoup their losses by doing what Boeing excels at: lobbying congress for more tax payers' money.

    3. StrangerHereMyself Silver badge

      Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

      Your prophetic claims border on the realm of magic!

    4. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

      I called this 27 days ago !!!

      No you did not, that was me!

      1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

        Re: Yay ... I won the Internet !!! :)

        No, it was my wife!

  3. JRStern

    R U kidding?

    If it can't return with the astronauts it can't return on its own.

    And really there's no "if" at this point, it's been hopeless virtually from the start.

    Thunderbirds are Go!

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: R U kidding?

      JRStern,

      The capsule is probably perfectly capable of returning, with or without crew. The problem is the word probably… What if the thrusters fail again, and can’t be restarted, with the ship in a lower orbit where it can’t get back to the ISS? If NASA are unable to determine the risk, then they shouldn’t allow it to fly crewed. Not if there’s a safer alternative, which there is.

      Boeing can pay for another test after this. An unmanned one. Until they can prove they have a clue what the fuck they’re doing.

      Personally, I think NASA shouldn’t have flown this test crewed. With a known bad thruster, and a helium leak. I think they already accepted more risk than needed, to try and get this program to its next milestone. Given neither previous test had managed to be flawless. But that was understandable. To risk lives now, just to save Boeing's blushes, would be unacceptable. Criminal, even.

      I accept they may get enough info to think they’ve fixed it. But I don’t think Boeing deserve the benefit of the doubt here. And if something does go wrong, everyone will suspect NASA and Boeing management overruled the engineers. Just like Challenger.

      1. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

        Re: R U kidding?

        Right now the capsule cannot return by itself because that functionality was trimmed out of the software two years ago. Putting it back in is expected to take 4 weeks. To make it more interesting, the software will have to get away from ISS without damaging it and without knowing in advance which thrusters will fail while it tries.

        1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

          Re: R U kidding?

          Flocke Kroes,

          Surely the damn thing can be flown on automatic or under ground control? Particularly as it's already made two flights without crew? Even if Boeing did bugger up test 1 by programming it wrong, and trying to run it out of fuel.

          At least undocking it ought to be possible. Canadarm has the capability to move spacecraft around, as supply Dragon used to work that way - and I'm pretty sure that at least test 1 of Starliner only flew to within a certain distance of the ISS - and was then docked by the the arm - rather than under its own steam.

          I'd read that the problem with the thrusters is thought to be over-heating. And so the programming was being changed to only fire one from each cluster at any one time, in order to avoid the multiple failures happening again. If that's the case, re-programming the flight control system on the fly is no time to man the spacecraft - even if they have to give up on trying to land it, and just put it into a fast decaying orbit.

          1. Boolian

            Re: R U kidding?

            Not really on a couple of counts.

            The 'Auto' functionality was removed, and the current Starliner (Test?) flight requires crew for that manoeuvre. Also, the Canadarm is not a funfair 'graboid', and requires any craft/payload to be fitted with a grapple fixture for its 'effector' to interface with.

            That is another story of course - why is an universal grapple fixture not a reqirement for all payloads to the ISS? Who knows, but Starliner doesn't have one (as far as I can ascertain) though Dragon capsules (among others) are fitted with one.

            To my knowledge, Starliner could auto-dock (this flight) but not auto-undock, and the only way to get it TF off of the ISS hard dock without crew, is to blow it off (this function exists ISS side) but would destroy the docking ring in the process. Whether that docking ring could then be repaired is another issue, but the ISS would be down one docking port for the forseeable future.

            Everyone is trying fairly with suggestions, but Starliner is fighting every option at every turn, which is why 'clusterfuck' is the most applied epithet.

            1. tip pc Silver badge

              Re: R U kidding?

              They are truly in the fudge zone.

              The zone where you apply the fudge that in normal circumstances would be totally fine but other problems arise that compound the fudge & you start wishing you did it properly in the first place.

      2. Irongut Silver badge

        Re: R U kidding?

        There can't be another test flight after this whether Boeing want to pay for it or not.

        Boeing are contracted to provide NASA with 6 flights of Starliner and there are 6 Atlas V rockets left for it to fly on. The rest have already been bought by Bezos' BO.

        Another test flight would mean not enough rockets to fly those contracted missions which would mean human rating the capsule to fly on another rocket (probably Vulcan) - something Boeing are not about to do since it would come entirely at their expense and they have already lost billions on Starliner.

        1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

          Re: R U kidding?

          Irongut,

          Oh dear. The lack of launchers is negotiable though. Crew safety isn't. And that means Boeing have got to actually pass a test before being allowed to go again.

          In fact two tests. Because the astronauts admitted that the thrusters were malfunctioning when they docked with ISS. Which is also unacceptable. NASA don't own the ISS - so it's not theirs to risk on a spacecraft that doesn't work properly.

          I'm sure Boeing didn't design Starliner for only 6 paid launches, plus 2 paid tests. They obviously wanted to win the next contract for ISS flights. And NASA also wanted them to do that, so they weren't beholden to a single supplier. So if they can get the damned thing to work properly, then there'll be another contract in future. So you simply negotiate away the last flight and the payment for it, and put that onto the next fixed-price contract.

          The point is that Boeing signed on for delivering 6 flights, plus two tests, at a fixed cost. Clearly they have to actually pass the tests in order to get to the bit of the contract that pays, because otherwise they'd have refused to do it and made NASA count it as one of the paid launches. A spacecraft that fails to work properly and has to be re-programmed in orbit in order to safely (for a given value of safe) bring the pilots back - or looking more likely the pilots can't be risked on - is not a successful test. So the same clause that made them re-run the test last time, means they have to again.

          But it's not in Boeing or NASA's interests to make a fuss if it's not possible to complete the 6 flights. But another contract for 10 - if the spacecraft now works - would give the incentive to man-rate Vulcan - which must have been the plan anyway.

          Alternatively they buy a rocket off Bezos - and pay him to use an alternative launcher.

          1. Boris the Cockroach Silver badge
            Meh

            Re: R U kidding?

            Quote

            "Alternatively they buy a rocket off Bezos - and pay him to use an alternative launcher."

            There is only 1.... falcon 9 and musk wont sell him one

            But its a bad day for boing, if I was promoted to boing chief I think my first day would consist of marching into each department and replacing the MBA beancounter boss with an actual engineer and demote the beancounters back to where they really belong. and make that change throughout boing's entire organisation, followed by moving the HQ back to the factory at Seattle.

            Sadly boing is not the only company in existence that needs that sort of change.

            eeee <<< the missing e's

      3. StrangerHereMyself Silver badge

        Re: R U kidding?

        Fouteen astronauts have already died because NASA managers though keeping to schedules (Challenger) or not wanting to make a hustle (Columbia) was more important than crew safety.

        NASA is essentially a political organization and therefore subject to political interference by politicians who are on Boeing's payroll. So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if pressure is being exerted to bring back the astronauts on Starliner, no matter what the risks.

        1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

          Re: R U kidding?

          "NASA is essentially a political organization and therefore subject to political interference by politicians who are on Boeing's payroll. So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if pressure is being exerted to bring back the astronauts on Starliner, no matter what the risks."

          Isn't Kamala Harris head of the Space Committee and effectively the ultimate "boss" over NASA? That could make it "politically sensitive" to make sure that there is pressure on NASA to make absolutely sure that no one dies or the fallout could hurt her Presidential campaign.

          politics - it cuts both ways :-)

        2. frankvw

          Re: R U kidding?

          "Fouteen astronauts have already died because NASA managers though keeping to schedules (Challenger) or not wanting to make a hustle (Columbia) was more important than crew safety."

          Ehm... no. The Challenger disaster was due to Thiokol management deciding to deliberately ignore the warnings of their engineers and sign off on the mission regardless of the risk the engineering department had informed them on. Granted, NASA questioned their earlier decision not to sign off on it, but they should have listened to their engineers and given NASA the finger. They didn't.. When Challenger exploded the Thiokol engineers were actually surprised that it had made it that far. So in the end it was a matter of Thiokol management making a "management decision" on an engineering issue they were not qualified to have an opinion about. Yes, NASA questioned Thiokol's advise to halt the launch, which did have to do with their desire to keep schedules. But in order to make that decision they relied on their contractor, and Thiokol had the power to refuse a sign-off. Also, Thiokol was at the time pretty much the only supplier of SRBs, so it wasn't like their position as a preferred supplier was at stake. At the end Thiokol management talked management with NASA management and as per usual the board room members decided that engineers are just a PITA who know about running a business.

          The Columbia re-entry heatshield failure was also not a case of trying to keep schedules. Bipod foam loss had occurred regularly (on at least a dozen STS flights starting with STS-1 - yes, the first flight) and while it had received considerable attention, based on available data it was not considered enough of a flight risk to halt the program (which, given that STS-1 was the first flight that experienced bipod foam loss, it would have amounted to). The debris strike caused by the STS-106 bipod foam loss was not noticed until the second day in orbit. It had not been registered clearly by any camera and hard data was not available. Therefore the Flight Risk Management team attempted to assess the potential damage on the basis of computer model data provided by Boing. (Yes, that Boing.) However, Boing had tried that before and come up with grossly inaccurate results (specifically, previous software modeling attempts had indicated damage far greater than was actually the case) so the modeling data didn't have enough of a good reputation to carry any weight. Obtaining imaging data by the DoD could have helped to provide clarity, but that request was botched in an administrative SNAFU between various government institutions. So in the end, based on the fact that debris impact from foam loss had occurred at least a dozen times before, as had the inaccuracies in Boing's software modeling on damage to the heat shield tiles. So Columbia was cleared for re-entry. If it hadn't, a rescue mission would have been difficult in any case.

          Was NASA to blame? Certainly. Were budget constraints a factor? Absolutely. Was complacency a factor in the consistent underestimation of risks stemming from bipod foam loss? Without a doubt. Did the Columbia disaster highlight the fact that the entire Space Shuttle program didn't have many real backup options to rescue the crew in case of a damaged orbiter? Definitely. Yes, in this case the mission could have been extended until another shuttle could have been used as a life boat, but at the expense of rushing another Shuttle to the pad to the point where some pre-launch checks would have to be skipped. It's easy to see why this wasn't done given the available data at the time and the understanding of same.

          Errors were made, absolutely. And NASA was not blameless by any stretch of the imagination. But it wasn't a matter of NASA choosing to keep a schedule at the expense of crew safety.

    2. SundogUK Silver badge

      Re: R U kidding?

      It has already done a round-trip, unmanned, so we know for sure it's possible to return without a crew. If they try it unmanned now and it RUD's, well SpaceX do stuff like that all the time. The key factor here is NOT KILLING THE CREW!

      1. Irongut Silver badge

        Re: R U kidding?

        That was a prior software version and like MS removing useful features from Windows, Boeing have removed it.

        SpaceX blow up experimental hardware. Boeing are relying on obsolete harware that is no longer in production (Atlas V) and any set back now that requires another test will mean Starliner can not fulfill it's 6 flight contract because there are no more rockets for it to fly on. Boeing have already lost billions of dollars on Starliner, they will not pay to test it on a new rocket.

        Now guess which company NASA officials thought was a shoe-in for Commercial Crew and which one they were sure would fail.

        1. The Oncoming Scorn Silver badge
          Pirate

          Re: R U kidding?

          Back in the 80's there was a TV series called Salvage, in which the hero had built a home made rocket out of scrap & in one of the later episodes had to go rescue one of his former crew\take up spares for a stricken shuttle IIRC. His former crew member quit NASA while in orbit, opting to return in the rocket citing nobody has ever had an alternative ride home before.

          Now it seems life is mirroring TV art, by having SpaceX go rescue the crew of a ship made from a motley collection of parts.

          1. An_Old_Dog Silver badge

            New TV Show

            "Gilligan's Island in Space".

  4. BasicReality

    There's nothing to consider, the safety of the crew is at stake. Starliner must be sent back empty to see what would have happened, but Crew Dragon is where they need to come back on.

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      BasicReality,

      There is one thing to consider. If SpaceX rescue the astronauts because of Boeing's failure, then Elon Musk's gloating will be both epic and never-ending. Which gloating will be both annoying, and also deserved. But obviously that minor annoyance is nothing set against the lives of the crew. So hopefully a SpaceX rescue it will be.

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        He's only providing a Boeing replacement bus service

    2. MachDiamond Silver badge

      "Starliner must be sent back empty to see what would have happened, but Crew Dragon is where they need to come back on."

      They could also come back via the Russians. I expect that politicians would prefer that SpaceX got the contract, but needs must. Even with tensions between the US and Russia, I would think that both sides would want to show willing for something like this in case the shoe was on the other foot.

      The problem right now is decision making. The decision must be made on whether there will be crew onboard this Starliner coming back or not. Did nobody do any work on this scenario before hand, stick it in a 3-ring binder and label the spline? A brand new craft is a concern, but so could any other "proven" craft. SpaceX just lost an upper stage on a Falcon 9. Prior to that, the system had been exceptionally reliable. A crew Dragon could have an anomaly as well. After shuttle Columbia came apart, NASA instituted a policy that no shuttle would launch if there wasn't another ready to go as a rescue craft. Perhaps that same policy needs to be put in place for ISS that there is always a spare Dragon/Starliner/whatever sitting on the shelf for rapid deployment. At the moment, it's important to decide things and then go on from there. Delete one or two F-35's and spend that money on the problem if that's what's needed.

      1. frankvw

        "They could also come back via the Russians."

        Well, there's this war thing going on with the Russians right now...

  5. handle handle

    Boeing should provide Test Pilots

    They can send two Boeing employees up in the SpaceX ship to pilot the Calamity Capsule back to Mother Earth. The NASA astronauts can come back on the SpaceX ship.

    1. Yorick Hunt Silver badge
      Alert

      Re: Boeing should provide Test Pilots

      "They can send two Boeing employees executives up..."

      FTFY.

      1. MachDiamond Silver badge

        Re: Boeing should provide Test Pilots

        "They can send two Boeing employees executives up with an IMU and parachutes for the return home.."

        FTFY

        Or, they could mock up a Mobile Infantry capsule to test out deploying troops from orbit.

    2. JohnMurray

      Re: Boeing should provide Test Pilots

      Like the CEO and his stand-in

    3. StrangerHereMyself Silver badge

      Re: Boeing should provide Test Pilots

      Better yet: send up the engineers that designed the damn thing.

      1. Julian Poyntz

        Re: Boeing should provide Test Pilots

        Engineers probably did a good job, then the beancounters got involved.

        Ohh too much

        Can you replace this expensive part for this cheaper part

        So we really need that there

        That supplier costs too much, use this one (ignoring inferior quality)

        1. NickHolland

          Re: Boeing should provide Test Pilots

          "That supplier is in the same congressional district as this other supplier. Please find a supplier in Senator X's state or Congressperson Y's district"

          Things becomes easier to understand when you realize NASA and other government operations are jobs programs directed by people who like to talk about what they did for their local district at the expensive of the rest of the country.

          Blaming Boeing is easy...and not wrong, but we also have to look at the people directing Boeing's decisions based on the products they asked Boeing to make, and the people that put them in power...and that's us, the voters. WE vote for the people that promise to bring stuff to OUR area at the expense of the rest of the country. No one will get into office saying, "eh, we are doing fine, send our tax money elsewhere".

  6. Evilgoat76

    I vote

    Crew 9 gets renamed to Thunderbird 3

  7. nematoad Silver badge

    There is.

    ...without a definitive explanation for anomalies previously witnessed with the hardware.

    Yes there is. It was built by Boeing.

    For once I agree with BasicReality . Get them into Crew Dragon and get them home.

  8. Arthur the cat Silver badge

    The last time someone got stuck in orbit …

    … he came back to find his country had ceased to exist. Better hope there's not a repeat of J6.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: The last time someone got stuck in orbit …

      I thought he came back and discovered the apes had taken over ?

      1. Julian Poyntz

        Re: The last time someone got stuck in orbit …

        Setting the recent UK riots, the terrible in the middle east, and potential trumpiness in the us, i'd take my chances with the apes

      2. frankvw

        Re: The last time someone got stuck in orbit …

        "I thought he came back and discovered the apes had taken over ?"

        why do you think they're in the dwang they're in right now?

  9. rgjnk
    Mushroom

    Crew Dragon

    Among other things the Crew Dragon already demo'd just how big a bang a faulty propellant valve can give you, so I can see why people might be jumpy.

    The history of space flight is full of lessons of what can go wrong, and they're usually worth listening to.

  10. goblinski

    As years go by and I get older, even events for The Register to report on become more bland.

    Their similar news from 20 years ago were way, way crispier:

    https://www.theregister.com/2004/04/16/cosmic_419er/

    Needless to say, those two astronauts have some days to spend before they hit Air Force Major Abacha Tunde's record - beautiful, unequaled and unbeaten.

  11. Kistelek

    No "if" about it.

    If you were the poor sod expected to get in it and fly it home, would you? Nope. Me neither. NASA has history here and at least there's a practical alternative to getting in the Boeing clown carpsule.

  12. StrangerHereMyself Silver badge

    Consensus

    After the death of 14 astronauts due to, essentially, management goof-ups NASA personnel are erring on the side of caution. Very understandable since once the astronauts disembark from the ISS in Starliner there's nothing anyone can do when things go awry. We'll all be witnessing their demise live on television.

    NASA engineers would need to be 100% convinced that a failure of the thrusters couldn't lead to the death of the astronauts. They clearly aren't at this time.

    In my opinion it has already been decided that the astronauts won't be returning on Starliner. The wheels of bureaucracy need to turn to get everything in order, and that takes time.

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: Consensus

      Not just bureaucracy. Lawyers.

      Boeing are on a fixed-price contract. They have a lot of lawyers.

      Test 1 was an un-arguable failure. Had mission conbrol not intervened I think the spacecraft would have burned all its fuel up before it even reached the ISS. Due to pisspoor software from Boeing. So there was no choice but to repeat Test 1 at Boeing's expense.

      Test 1a showed that the fuel valves were corroding in the atmosphere in Florida. Who'd have thunk that somewhere next to the sea with 80% humidity and high temperatures might cause corrosion? Well obviously not Boeing... However that one flew and I'd not seen a report of how bad that corrosion was, other than they had repeated problems in pre-flight testing and had to launch with known problems. Anyway they weren't made to repeat it, did their re-design and went to manned test.

      Test 2 manned bugaloo - needs to be shown to have failed, or Boeing will demand to go on to the 6 contracted launches. And if NASA want a test, well they can do what they lilke with the flights they're paying for. Boeing's legal argument would be that sure the prototype rocket displayed problems, but we fixed that in a software patch and it's now all fine. Just those nasty NASA bosses wouldn't let us fly it, so they could get more free launches out of us. So a refusal to man the return flight pretty much demands another test flight - which Boeing will have to pay for. Hence it's got to stand up in court.

      If Boeing are unable to perform the contract- due to lack of rockets - then it's pretty much guaranteed to end in court. If NASA do their legal stuff now, then Boeing are buggered - and will be in no position to go to court and so NASA have the power to insist on performance or to negotiated a reduced price for the contract or more likely a reduced price for the next contract - where Boeing have got to man-rate their new launch rocket - which is surely cheaper than building and man-rating a new spacecraft.

      NASA want an alternative supplier to SpaceX. Boeing want to get paid, and if possible to avoid any more public humiliation than is strictly necessary - also not to throw away the work they've already done on Starliner. Remember everyone will start to forget the teething troubles if they can ever get it working and get 6 clean launches under their belts. So a nice bureaucratic and legal process here gives NASA some cheaper launches in future. Or the legal ability to tell Boeing to go fuck themselves and keep the rest of the money - which remember buys twice as many launches withi SpaceX.

      1. StrangerHereMyself Silver badge

        Re: Consensus

        I don't think Boeing stands much of a chance in court. Most judges will argue that Starliner is demonstrably defective and that NASA had every right not to risk the lives of their astronauts on a return journey.

        NASA wants a second source for launching crews, but not at all costs. They'll be weighing (partially) paying for another CFT against dropping Boeing and letting Sierra Nevada or someone else giving it a try. The biggest problem is that ISS will soon cease to exist and there's no clear path towards the private commercial space stations everyone's talking about. That would make it extremely risky for Sierra Nevada or anyone else to develop a human-rated transportation system since there may not be a destination in 5 or 6 years.

        I'm personally skeptical of these commercial space stations, since the operators will demand NASA fully finance their development and operations. NASA isn't willing to spend a great deal of money on LEO since they're focusing on the Moon and Mars.

    2. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

      Re: Consensus

      "In my opinion it has already been decided that the astronauts won't be returning on Starliner."

      There must be a fixed, hard time limit too as when Starliner MUST be undocked or be stuck there 'till the ISS is deorbited. Helium. It leaks anyway over time, no matter how you store it, and some has already leaked above and beyond the natural leakage. They need that thing gone while it has enough He + acceptable reserve. I've also hear Boeing are trying to pass the buck to Rocketdyne as the designers of the thrusters. If there are problems with the thrusters, Boeing QA should have found that before the bought them and built them into the capsule.

  13. Henry Wertz 1 Gold badge

    leaks are a problem!

    leaks are a problem! Recall Challenger, it had some known problems with seals leaking in cold weather, and the decision was made to launch anyway. NASA certainly doesn't want to take the risk with leaks and have a repeat of that.

  14. SotarrTheWizard
    Trollface

    Meanwhile, at Boeing. . . .

    . . . in the not-too-distant-future. . . .

    . . . .will Boeing's CEO send them cheesy movies, the worst he can find. . .

    The astronauts will be forced to sit and watch them all, while he monitors their minds. . . . ;)

  15. Oneman2Many Bronze badge

    Apparently they have managed to partially replicate the thruster issue and appears to be a Teflon popper value being affected by heat and partially melting and affecting oxidiser flow.

    Anyway, out of the 2 crew dragon options sending them back on crew 8 is super unlikely so sending 2 crew up on Crew 9 and bring back Bunch and Suni in 6 months time. My guess is they will still try and use Starline. They have until Crew 9 launch in 6 to 7 weeks time to decide.

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      If they believe several valves have really partially melted, then they can't safely use the spacecraft. And they were bloody lucky they lasted long enough to dock.

      If it's a temperature problem causing the safety cut-outs to mean you can only fire one thruster per cluster - then it's a problem they can try to fix in software and flight planning. Although I'd have thought that only being able to use one thruster per cluster would reduce your safety margins too much, given you now have many fewer available thrusters - and so you've no margin for failure.

      1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

        "Although I'd have thought that only being able to use one thruster per cluster would reduce your safety margins too much, given you now have many fewer available thrusters - and so you've no margin for failure."

        If the thruster in the cluster fails, he wails, then there's no fluster as there are other thrusters in the clusters to take up the slack and bring them back :-)

  16. hayzoos

    Most important opinion

    I do not recall reading about the opinion of the most important experts. What do the astronauts think? I believe their opinion should factor most highly in the decision.

    1. Boolian

      Re: Most important opinion

      That's a fair comment, but effectively they don't. They are cargo with some training - training to an exceptional standard - but they do not have the indepth engineering training to make such calls and must defer to 'Ground Control'. Effectively they have no say, practically of course, they do have a say - but that'll be the end of their career. Being employed as a test pilot and refusing to test is certainly an option, but you kinda don't get to be a test pilot again.

      Astronauts are made of different stuff, our concerns in such situations are not neccessarily their concerns, they already strapped themselves into a rocket for a start... no rocket launch is a flight to Ibiza.

      1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

        Re: Most important opinion

        Boolian,

        The astronauts aren't just cargo. They've been training on this system for years, so probably have a pretty deep understanding of it.

        Both of them are US Navy test pilots, which means they've been through test pilot school, which is the equivalent of a Masters degree in engineering. Specialising in understanding complex aviation systems and how to understand their failure modes plus how to design tests to find any failures - as well as the general performance of the system so they can then write the flight manual.

        They are therefore highly qualified to have an opinion - and specifically on the interaction that problems in one sub-system will have on the other sub-systems of the vehicle. In the aviation world they'd have the final legal responsibility to decide whether it was safe to fly an aircraft (obviously other people would also have to sign-off and a test pilot who says no too many times won't last). Safety in test systems includes what measures you take to make your flight as safe as possible despite knowing there are risks - because in a test program you will deliberately try to cause failures at certain points - plus in working out what the safe envelope is, you have to go beyond it.

        I imagine legal responsibilities are different with spaceflight. And Mission Control usually have more information than you, as they've got whole teams looking at every bit of telemetry all the time. But that doesn't mean the pilot isn't the pilot. There are plenty of times that astronauts have had to react before there was time to consult mission control - which is why they do all this training. Especially in a test situation - and particularly as a couple of posters on here say that Boeing removed the code that allows the craft to fly completely automatically between the first two tests and this one.

    2. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

      Re: Most important opinion

      "I do not recall reading about the opinion of the most important experts. What do the astronauts think? I believe their opinion should factor most highly in the decision."

      Well, apparently the discussions were "vigorous"[*] and I assume the astronauts would have been involved over video link.

      *business-speak for a fucking great shouting match!

  17. Bebu Silver badge
    Facepalm

    A Parachute and a Pair of Asbestos Nickers?

    All a bit sorry really.

    These astronauts will return to a planet (mis)ruled by Apes (but not the clever ones. :)

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: A Parachute and a Pair of Asbestos Nickers?

      I object to that. My father was an ape, as was my grandfather.

      My great grandfather was an Australopithecus and great-great-grandfather was some sort of shrew.

      I'm a Young Earth Evolutionist

      1. The Oncoming Scorn Silver badge
        Thumb Up

        Re: A Parachute and a Pair of Asbestos Nickers?

        "I object to that. My father was an ape, as was my grandfather."

        I bet you never invite your family round for dinner.

        Icon - DNA.

        1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

          Re: A Parachute and a Pair of Asbestos Nickers?

          "I bet you never invite your family round for dinner."

          No, but they often come for tea. PG of course :-)

          Do you know the pianos on my foot? No lad, but if you hum it, I'll play it.

          Ca you ride tandem?

          Brits of a certain age will get the above :-)

    2. spold Silver badge

      Re: A Parachute and a Pair of Asbestos Nickers?

      We all know that with Boeing's luck (or lack of) this infernal contraption is going to hit a 737 Max on the way down.

  18. FuzzyTheBear
    FAIL

    Software update.

    There's a matter for NASA and the proposed Boeing software update that can brick the dock also in the mix. Boeins is finished any way you look at it. They return empty and the capsule somehow makes it , they're finished , back to earth with a dead crew , they're done , stuck at the station , they've had it . Whatever way you look at the issue Boeing's finished.

  19. Dave 13

    Boeing's management fell for the 'shareholder value' myth of Jack Welch and hollowed out the company for short-term profits and C-suite perks. This is the result.

  20. Spherical Cow Silver badge

    Could this idea work?

    Here is the problem. Of the six docking ports on the ISS, only two fit the Starliner and Dragon capsules. Both ports are currently occupied, with one of each capsule type. So we can't send another Dragon up to bring back Butch and Suni because there's nowhere for it to dock.

    Here is a possible solution, maybe? The Dragon currently docked has a grappling point for Canadarm2, so we could undock the empty Dragon and hold it out of the way with the arm while a second Dragon (with one or two pilots) makes a brief visit to collect Butch and Suni. No need to wait for many months, they can return as soon as SpaceX can get a Crew Dragon ready to go. (IANARS)

    1. MachDiamond Silver badge

      Re: Could this idea work?

      "The Dragon currently docked has a grappling point for Canadarm2, so we could undock the empty Dragon and hold it out of the way with the arm while a second Dragon (with one or two pilots) makes a brief visit to collect Butch and Suni."

      They can also make the decision that the Starliner is NOT going to come back with a crew and send it back without one so a parking space is opened up.

      Scott Manley just did an episode on his YT channel talking about this. He makes some interesting points about the issue being more about 1/2-1% added crew risk over what it would be, 1:270, with no issues. It's not something really scary like 50:50. If all of that it true it might be best left to Butch and Sunni to decide if they are comfortable with that or would rather stay on-board for months and spend several more learning to walk again once they get back.

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