NASA pushes back missions to the ISS to buy time for Starliner analysis The saga of Boeing's delayed Starliner capsule continues: NASA has confirmed it pushed back the next SpaceX Crew Dragon mission to the International Space Station to give Starliner teams more time to work out how to bring the spacecraft back to Earth. The Starliner's initial eight-day minimum mission is now a distant memory, …
The thrusters started getting rough
The tiny ship was tossed
If not for the courage of the fearless crew
The Calypso would be lost
The Calypso would be lost
So this is the tale of our castaways,
there here for a long long time.
They'll have to make the best of things,
it's an uphill climb.
I'm fully aware it was feeble, BUT I'm not really thinking of someone disengaging the dock and giving the capsule a kick.
What I have in mind is the sunk cost fallacy—the time comes when you have to suck up the shame and let go the blackhole.
Although, in the case of Boeing, it seems it's the 'financial blackhole' of federal funding, with Boeing as the conduit, that is what really matters.
What other options are there though? Let's face it, Boeing might be confident of starliner's ability to undock and return, but if everyone was similarly confident then it would be undocking and returning, not sitting at the ISS nearly eight weeks into its eight-day mission.
Presumably, the reason that Crew-9 is being delayed is because there are no docking slots left available at the ISS because starliner is there longer than anticipated. But the ISS has six docking bays, with four currently being taken up by cargo / resupply vessels. Why not return one of them earlier than planned and leave the Crew-9 schedule where it was?
The various docking ports are also of three different types. The Cygnus freighter that arrived recently uses a CBM port, Soyuz and Progress craft use the Russian style docking ports. Dragons and Starliners use IDA ports and there are, as has been said repeatedly, only two of those on the ISS. Crew 9 cannot dock with the ISS until either the Crew 8 Dragon or the Starliner leave and free up an IDA port.
No - because doing so eliminates the possibility of further testing.
By now they have been through the data from the orbital testing several times. The ground testing they are doing they can continue to do. More time means they either can't replicate the problem on the ground, or they are having difficulty writing a software fix for a hardware problem. They are hanging on because there is not sufficient confidence they can bring the capsule home safely, and a SpaceX rescue will kill Starliner.
"nearly eight weeks into its eight-day mission."
And yet, we were all so proud of Spirit and Opportunity fantastically outlasting their mission design, not to mention Curiosity and the little helicopter that could! :-)
Of course, one is because of great engineering and the other...well...Boeing engineering.
I'm flagging the following. Bin liner cannot undock and return...
1) without a crew because it has the wrong software installed and even if they reinstall the auto flight software there is no guarantee the thing won't fire its thrusters at the ISS and make the big bird go bang.
2) They need a person aboard the bin liner to press the big red undock button before any auto flight software is engaged.
So they'll end up with 2 guys in spacesuits holding onto the thing whilst no 3 pushes the un dock button and runs. Then the other 2 shove the thing way from the ISS before the thrusters fire and it's all a simple as that. IMHO with popcorn in hand.
That plan is busted too. The astronaut pushing the undock button has to be there while Starliner undocks. The side hatch will not open unless there is an atmosphere outside and the top hatch is too small for someone to get through wearing a space suit. The choices are try to return to Earth in the Starliner or try to return to the ISS without a space suit.
Boeing said it "remains confident in the Starliner spacecraft. Of course it did.
The rapidly running-out-of-patience shareholders cannot handle the reality that Boeing has lost the race with SpaceX and only Boeing's pride, and the marooned astronauts, is stopping them from cancelling the whole project right now.
If there is the slightest doubt about the software, or those thrusters, not working 100% then NASA must call it. Imagine what would happen if there is a major problem. NASA will not risk another Challenger for sure.
SpaceX could mount the rescue mission and I am sure they have already agreed a timescale and price for the job.
It can't be just "pointed" at earth, it has to be powered down out of orbit. And ... the Starliner was designed to NOT burn up in re-entry, so how and where it comes down matters. If you manage to get it away from the ISS and dip into the atmosphere to slow it down and cause reentry, you want it to hit water and not likely to hit a ship or an airplane (granted, hitting a ship or an airplane would be very unlikely, but there's a reason they normally clear expected landing areas of ship and aircraft traffic). So even hooking a tow-rope on it and pulling it down with a SpaceX launch would be "tricky".
It's a bloomin' mess, really.
"Okay, they lose the Starliner but it is increasing looking like a liability anyway."
Financially, it's already a massive liability. And with a fixed price contract, including more missions, they REALLY can't afford to lose this one. Apart from the extra costs top Boeing, it's hugely delay and increase costs on the future contracted missions.
I think that let’s be honest, Boeing are dead, absolutely dead in the water if they think they are getting any more contracts from NASA!
Although maybe not because of ‘pork’, but even if so, good luck in getting any potential astronauts agreeing to fly on said craft! Which would be embarrassing, no?
From NYTIMES:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-spacex.html
<QUOTE>
NASA Says Boeing Starliner Astronauts May Fly Home on SpaceX in 2025
The agency had insisted for a couple of months that it was confident that Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore would return on Starliner.
Kenneth Chang
By Kenneth Chang
Aug. 7, 2024 Updated 4:46 p.m. ET
For weeks, NASA has downplayed problems experienced by Starliner, a Boeing spacecraft that took two astronauts to the International Space Station in June.
But on Wednesday, NASA officials admitted that the issues might be more serious than first thought and that the astronauts might not return on the Boeing vehicle, after all.
The agency is exploring a backup option for the astronauts, Suni Wiliams and Butch Wilmore, to instead hitch a ride back to Earth on a spacecraft built by Boeing’s competitor SpaceX.
The astronauts’ stay in orbit, which was to be as short as eight days, could be extended into next year.
<END QUOTE>
What a time to be alive.
Inner child me is fascinated that we have a huge space station with a mix of Progress and Dragon and Starliners coming and going, with a rescue being planned and working around a side trip to Jupiter that's occupying one of the pads.
I want to tell 40 years younger me "you think that Apollo picture book is cool? Just wait til 2024"
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