Musk deflects sluggish Tesla car sales with Optimus optimism Tesla profits were nearly halved in the second quarter of 2024, extending a run of woe for the company, lightened only by a surge in energy generation and storage. According to figures filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tesla's revenues were mostly flat, registering barely a 2 percent increase. The …
Everyone will want one. But Tesla won't be the one that gets there first. Despite a head start that are way behind in autonomous driving tech now, so even if he gets to the point of doing a few cute demos and selling to a handful of rich early adopters who will impress their friends by having a robot bring drinks to them at the pool (until it steps on a noodle, falls into the pool and bricks itself) the first function ones will come from others.
Yup. China and Japan are waaaay ahead here, especially Japan but if the latest expo was anything to go by China is catching up - they're testing a robodog for the blind becuse there are simply not enough guide dogs. Actually, they're now starting with robotaxis too, I recall Shanghai giving permission for tests.
But hey, Musk isn't serious about this anyway - he just needs to distract investors from Tesla's underperformance. It's not like he hasn't done exactly the same on the last earnings call..
becuse there are simply not enough guide dogs
That seems an odd thing to be short of. I don't see how it can be that a long and expensive period to develop a robotic dog (which won't be cheaper to buy/maintain than a dog dog) would be a better solution than breeding and training more dogs (and starting by training more dog trainers if that's the limitation)
Training a guide dog requires a specialist to do the training. That never changes so you're always paying for a specialist.
Once the robot dog is designed, all you need a low-skilled assembly line worker. Woohoo Profit!
And dog food is expensive, robot dogs dont eat... Shhh at the back, no-one thinks about electricity, these days. Robot dogs are free to upkeep! Woohoo Profit!!!
It's not like Robot Dogs will need maintenance, updates, etc. Or that actual dogs, provide so much more for blind people in the way of companionship, then just being a guide. But it's that sort of magical thinking (profit, profit, profit) that drives upper managers and politicians to push for these types of "solutions"...
Everyone will want one.
I won't. The whole idea sounds dreadful. I don't really care for most of the "labor-saving" devices I have now (many of which we have only because my wife wanted them); a personal robot would just be a continual annoyance.
And, of course, it would encourage laziness and learned helplessness.
In fact, I can't think of a single good reason to have one. Well, if I could get Musk to agree to a cage fight against my personal robot, that might be one.
In fact, I can't think of a single good reason to have one
Really? You can't imagine a future where you need help in your day to day life with stuff like bathing if you want to live independently in your home? You planning on making your wife or one of your kids fill that role, or are you wealthy enough that you can afford to pay for live in help no matter how quickly the price of that continues to rise?
The population is aging, so not only will there be more old people but the number of years the average old person will need such help is likely to get longer (i.e. as they improve cancer cures so people can "live with" cancer for years rather than dying from it) and the number of workers per old person to pay for nursing home and home care assistance is shrinking in every developed country - especially China which has 4x the population of the US.
So stop thinking about this as a way for obese people to have someone bring them a sandwich and sugary soda instead of getting off the couch themselves, and think about what it is really for.
And the Segway was invented by someone who had a track record of creating things that were actually useful, and desirable for those with the appropriate use cases. Not just someone who hired other people to, in some cases (SpaceX), create such things.
But, you know what they say: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, I'm probably the typical consumer.
Everything that comes out of Musk's mouth is a shameless stock pump. I'm surprised he hasn't run afoul of the SEC again. Of course he's supporting Trump in the hope Trump will eliminate the SEC among other federal agencies in return. Oh and subsidize every Musk company with public government debt.
The financials from the previously reported quarter don't even break out solar panels which is all of the "generation" that Tesla has. Storage is taking cells they buy and sticking them in a box... just like Siemens, Bosch, BYD, LG and many other firms. If there's huge margin in that, it won't be long term as it will mean there's plenty of room to wiggle in a bidding war until the prices are down to the point where margins are reasonable.
Tesla is an automobile company based on where the vast majority of their revenue is derived. Every other auto manufacturer has other lines of business that earn a profit, but are overshadowed by sales of cars. There's nothing special about Tesla having business units doing other things.
"Not like BYD, who were a battery company before they started making cars."
Yes, but. I'm not up on BYD financials, but I expect that auto sales are the greatest source of income for them now. While they might have started as a battery company, they've morphed and need to be evaluated based on the segment that brings in the most revenue. Even Tesla is buying batteries from BYD so it's a good business for BYD to be in.
> I expect that auto sales are the greatest source of income for them now.
Hmm, I doubt that. The profit margin on their cars must be tiny, if positive at all. I suspect they make the real money by selling batteries and other tech to European/American/Japanese automakers at cranked-up prices.
Once the competitors are out of business, then they will put up the prices on the cars.
Although, you said greatest source of "income" or "revenue", and that technically may be correct for a high-turnover loss-leader. But if you meant to say "profit", I think that still comes from the batteries.
Jack up the prices on the components that your competitors need and only you supply, while selling at a loss the highly-integrated consumer products that compete directly with them. That seems to be the general Chinese strategy at the moment..
Looking forward to Musky's plan to allow every Tesla owner to hire their car out as a taxi when they are not using it. I'd love to get into my car in the morning and find it full of McDonald's wrappers and bodily fluids. Or even find it not on my driveway as it decided to change into a lane that wasn't really a lane and the car and paying passengers are now on fire several miles away. The income would have to be a lot more than 10% of a taxi fare to tempt me. Not that I'll ever own a Tesla, thanks to buying one being a tacit vote of approval for Phoney Stark's actions and statements.
"Or even find it not on my driveway as it decided to change into a lane that wasn't really a lane and the car and paying passengers are now on fire several miles away. "
It could have also panicked or done something very stupid and is now sitting in an impound lot as it had to be removed from the roadway. BTW, they'll be sending you a notice with the fine amount in the mail for impeding traffic. Being on fire might have been better. You might have an insurance claim in that case.
You might not understand it, but it’s easy for me. Not only do I know how it works, I’ve got a whole team of people who are even smarter than me (would you believe?), and we’re all just so excited to help you! Yes, little old you! You can get a piece of this power, come this way my friend and I’ll explain some more, or even better, just sign right here and you’ll understand in no time!!! :)
it's all just hyperbolic bullshit designed to pump the stock price
Yet so many people wholeheartedly believe every single thing this serial snake oil salesman says, and are truly convinced he is a visionary genius. He isn't. Optimus is shit and will never approach the level of usability or reliability to be marketable. And Robotaxi/FSD? As usual, it's 'next year, maybe two years', which is what he always says, and is complete bollocks. I just hope that finally, some sanity will start to permeate the brains of all the Musk fanboys and they will realise just what an idiot he really is.
And a good number of his trufans are intelligent, thoughtful people, like Tim Urban of waitbutwhy. (AFAIK, the last time Urban mentioned Musk, he was still holding to the "visionary" line.) In all honesty, I have to grant the possibility that I'm wrong about Musk, but I really, really, really do not see the evidence for it. Everything I've seen suggests the man's a loudmouthed random diva who lucked into a bunch of money and shotgunned out a bunch of projects, some of which succeeded thanks to other people running them and some of which succeeded based on Musk's cult of personality.
So either Urban and the like have picked up on some subtlety that eludes the rest of us, or they're suffering some profound cognitive dissonance on this subject.
The bulk of Musk's supporters are just those idiots who subscribe to the "successful businessman" mythology, of course.
"I just hope that finally, some sanity will start to permeate the brains of all the Musk fanboys"
Doubtful as the stories claiming how rich you could be if you bought X number of shares years ago when they were cheap and sold them when it peaked are plentiful. I see lots of comments claiming all sorts of have made millions on Tesla stock (I say Tesla Stock because their products depreciate). Yes, you can make loads of money on the stock if you get lucky on your timing. Plenty of people have lost their backsides when they bought in 2023 when it was really peaking and the senior execs were dumping their shares and cashing out. Those execs aren't buying back in which should be another huge clue.
In this context he knows nothing. Just the usual muskshit.
The idea that automotive production line automation can be usefully adapted to household chores is nonsense as most sane people will realise, and those of us who've ever worked in the automotive sector know for a fact. But since his intended audience is his own acolytes it matters not, they'll believe anything that squeezes past his sphincter-like lips.
In the robotics and assembly markets, there's some truly fabulous companies who've been doing this for years and really know their shit, presumably initially had some interest in Tesla as a prospective customer (and they don't think they're selling robotic housemaids any time this century). But as usual Musk thinks he can re-invent the wheel himself to universal acclaim, this time in robotics. Either that, or he was such a pain in the arse to work with that the industry leaders concluded that it wasn't trying to work with him and he had to come up with his own half baked robots.
So he receives nearly $1Bn in brown envelopes eco-incentives from the government that he is actively trying to remove.
So he either expects the other lot to be more socialist when it comes to handing out brown envelopes eco-incentives. Or he is just so committed to the political ideals of small government and climate denial that he is prepared to pay $45M/month of his own money to strip his public company of $1Bn/year
Just for Info, Musky has denied the $45m/month claim... Although he is "campaigning" for Trump...
Knowing Musky, he likely made the claim he would donate that, and then an adult in the room pointed out he doesnt have that much free cash at the moment, and so he's had to backtrack... As always...
"Just for Info, Musky has denied the $45m/month claim... Although he is "campaigning" for Trump..."
The wording is suspicious. Elon says he isn't giving $45mn/month to Mr Trump which was never alleged. The money was claimed to be going to a "Super PAC" to support the Trump campaign. Maybe that's too subtle for some, but it's what lawyers love to argue. It's like people claiming that FSD has improved since Elon is now saying "Supervised FSD" and not realizing that they had to find a way to create some insulation against the plaintiffs. It had nothing to do with any material improvements, it's still Level 2. By adding "supervised" they can argue that they are not claiming it's fully autonomous.
Well the bloke who destroyed his Tesla along with large parts of the local infrastructure when he attempted traveling at Time Distort 7 outside my house will certainly be in the market for a new one.
Assuming a) He stays out of jail and 2) Can get insurance.
Thumbed down?
That fuck faced fucker narrowly missed a Mom-mobile with a kid inside and left a 70ft evidence trail including his passenger-side front wheel c/w motor and wishbone assembly in addition to the sheared-through telephone pole that took out power, cable and internet for several hours - in a heatwave.
Fuck him and fuck the twat who thumbed me down.
Probably a Tesla owner fond of attempting his own Donald Campbell impersonation on the public highways.
It's not clear why anyone would by Optimus over one of the dozen or so other humanoid robots being developed (and in some cases, already being used in service).
Musk sold the idea of Tesla as being an unassailable disruptor to the industry. He's dropped the ball - as simple as that - and is reliant on tariffs to protect his company from competition.
Now he's trying to invent a whole new unassailable lead, having demonstrated that he can take a unique opportunity and loose it. This doesn't seem to be a good gamble.
If the only value (according to Musk) is autonomy and Optimus, then the message is clear. Anyone investing has to consider this a startup, not a company with any expectation they can deliver a new global scale business model.
I still don't understand why most people would want a humanoid robot at all, frankly. Yes, if you're disabled, perhaps if you're elderly (though I'm still going to go with a firm "no" myself). But if something needs doing, then I want to do it myself. If I can't be bothered to, I'm better off without it.
I could think of things that I would do with one if I had it, but those things are not going to be important enough to justify anything near what the most basic of robots might cost. If I had one, I would likely consider automating some tasks that don't interest me, but it would take a lot of hours freed from such chores to equal the price of the machine and the, admittedly more enjoyable, hours programming it to do those things.
There's also a market problem. If I earn a normal amount of money, which I do, then a robot is likely to be out of my price range in any case. If I'm a very wealthy person, I can try hiring someone to do things that I want done and they're likely to make fewer and less damaging mistakes when starting. I'm not sure the first generations of humanoid robots will have enough demand to sell except to people who like having the latest expensive gadgets, and I don't think that's a big enough market to fund development of the second generation.
"perhaps if you're elderly"
If you need support like that, a human will be much better. They'd be able to recognize you need emergency services even if you can't speak or just need to be left alone while you have your nap. There might be many other things that a robot won't be able to handle. If you have a bad reaction to some new meds, a human care person might be monitoring you to see if you tolerate the medication ok and be looking for signs you aren't. The situations are endless, quite varied and don't adhere to a rigid schedule.
"The Xitter owner also mentioned opportunities for integrating xAI's chatbot Grok into Tesla's software and said that shareholder approval would be needed before any investment was made."
Am I reading this right? They want to put a chatbot in the car? What the hell for?
I imagine it would be rather like having a constant back seat driver making"helpful" suggestions. His Muskiness watched too much knight rider as a kid, methinks.
I can answer that one. You absolutely need an LLM running in a car when the company that makes the LLM will supply it for $5 billion in up-front "investment", will charge per use, and you own that company. Free money is wonderful. You just add it onto the price of each car, and when people don't buy as many of them, you make some other promise of what other wonderful feature they'll have and wait for people to bid up the stock again. Eventually, this won't work in the long term, but you'll have extracted plenty of actual money in the meantime.
No, you're not reading it right. Fuck knows what the software is supposed to do, the actual idea is to get Tesla to provide cheap finance for Musk's private venture. As interest rates are no longer zero, loans or bonds are more expensive and harder to get and he's not got anything that anyone is going to put real money in. What better than to give Tesla equity in the project in return for a huge wad of cash? No need for due diligence because he controls or owns both. This would be very close to fraud but he has form in this area in the way he forced Tesla to buy the failing SolarCity and presumably reckons, if he got away with it then, he'll get away with it now.
"I think everyone on Earth is going to want one."
Dude can't even make a car that can drive itself, yet we're supposed to trust our robot overlords that they can turn out a half functioning bot? And humanoid shape to boot. Oh my.
If I was going to have a bot, I'd like it to resemble that cute Asian woman in Humans, but I would absolutely settle for a Tachikoma. The Optimus just looks about as fugly as most of the other Tesla fare.
Plus, wasn't Will Smith in a movie about where this scenario ends up?
"There's 8 billion people on earth, so it's 8 billion right there."
Hey, Musk, quite an upsetting number of those people are living surviving in conditions and poverty that you would be utterly incapable of comprehending you fucking piece of shit.
If I was going to have a bot, I'd like it to resemble that cute Asian woman in Humans
I was thinking if Musk were to cloak this mechanism in synthetic skin add some basic LLM AI using on rather specific training sets he could market a life sized sex toy employing Tesla powerwall technology for superhuman endurance.
From the video clips I see on the internet, ladies in french maid outfits don't appear to do any housework so I imagine Musk could market an automaton Tesla Trollop with FSD* with the customer understanding there was no expectation of useful work involved.
From the Optimus videos on the robot's dexterity and manual control seem good enough to not actually pull anything off.
Models tailored for every market segment (and I daresay each letter of the alphabet) might appeal to the "adult" fraction of Musk's 8 billion.
Extra roles would cost more so if you yearned to augment your Bouncy Betty base model with a user selectable Pool Boy Bob role add an extra USD50.00 pcm.
Sillyness aside I am not convinced there is any real need for humanoid robots - versatile, mobile and (semi)autonomous yes, I can see real applications. Bipedal locomotion seems like a great waste of computation just for a factory robot just to move around a large flat floor. Even in natural, irregular environments quadrapedal locomotion seems a lot cheaper computationally.
* fully satisfied desires
Why expend all that time, money and effort into getting both the Fancy Self-Driving shizzle AND this weird Optimusk thing working, when you could just put an Optimusk in every Tesla?
One set of R&D costs to get an Optimusk to press the right pedal at the right time, and you're golden. Perhaps then you'll be worth that ludicrous $56bn remuneration package? (But probably not.)
"So an Optimus is running errands for it's Master when a CyberTruck spins out of control and crashes into the Optimus. In a violent burst of space-rending energy Optimus Prime is born and Tesla ends up being sued into bankruptcy by Hasbro." <LOL>
I imagine we all know a MuskRat and have been bored silly by their insistance that His Holiness is a visionary genius. I personally cannot understand their need to have someone to worship. I have also never understood "Brand Worship". Just because a company has made some, or even lots of good products doesn't mean that everything they do is awesome. Get a life people!
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