Tesla delays 'Robotaxi' event as Musk 'makes' design 'tweaks' Tesla's Robotaxi reveal event is being postponed after company boss Elon Musk decided the front of the vehicle needs a tweak. The curtains were due to lift on August 8 but word reached us last week that a delay was initiated by the billionaire to give engineers more time to rework the vehicle. Musk confirmed this morning: " …
I don't think anybody who has a clue takes seriously the idea that Tesla could launch a general service in which cars drive themselves without a human behind the wheel, this year or for a number of years from now. The most advanced system, Waymo, only works in a small number of cities, and they have humans ready to take remote control of the cars in case of problems. Getting rid of these emergency drivers is orders of magnitude more complicated than the massive work needed for Tesla to even catch up with Waymo.
Knowing Musk's standard operating procedures, it's likely the "robotaxi" will be a taxi whose human driver is nicknamed "Robo".
There's no reason Tesla couldn't start off using remote safety drivers like Waymo while they work on improving it to the point where that's no longer needed. I haven't heard that mooted, but it would actually be a sensible way forward.
However FSD reportedly currently manages a couple of hundred miles per intervention, while Waymo is at 17000, so Tesla have to improve by a couple of orders of magnitude even to get to that point, which could still take a few years.
The caveat to that is the current FSD efforts are targeted at Hardware 3, because there are a lot of Tesla cars out there with Hardware 3, and there's no upgrade path, and they want to deliver FSD for those owners. However one would assume that with the putative robotaxi fleet, they would want to fully utilise Hardware 4, and that big step forward in compute power, and the more and better cameras and sensors, might significantly accelerate things.
"However FSD reportedly currently manages a couple of hundred miles per intervention, while Waymo is at 17000, so Tesla have to improve by a couple of orders of magnitude even to get to that point, which could still take a few years."
One difference being the very limited areas of operation for Waymo - that combined with the variable tolerance of the supervising drivers make those two statistics very difficult to compare.
Doesn't mean its real. He announced the Tesla Semi in 2017 and they didn't ship the first batch to Pepsi (basically beta models) until a full five years later! They are still at least two years from mass production of that.
Musk knows that with shipments falling and market share and profitability cratering he needs to throw a bone to the shareholders or they'll abandon ship. There needs to always be something on the horizon they can tell themselves justifies their faith in Musk and Tesla's stock.
The lack of steering wheel and pedals doesn't mean anything. It'll still have to have a safety driver to prove itself to regulators in the places that allow driverless robotaxis. Those Waymo and Cruise robotaxis spend a long time doing so, Musk's will have to do the same even though I'm sure he'll whine mightily about being held to the same standard. They'll have safety drivers, equipped with some sort of emergency stop button, at least for a while.
"Doesn't mean its real. He announced the Tesla Semi in 2017 and they didn't ship the first batch to Pepsi (basically beta models) until a full five years later! They are still at least two years from mass production of that."
In the mean time, every other prominent maker has electric models for sale. I was just watching Robert Llewellyn drive a Mercedes electric lorry around a track. Another company is re-making older trash trucks with electric drive since the chassis can be fine with a good power wash and paint. Even Nicola that was given up for dead is selling electric trucks.
Perhaps they discovered during testing that the front fell off.
"Recall," he said aloud.
"Recall what, sir or madam?" the robot driver of the cab inquired respectfully.
"Do you have a phone book?" Quail demanded.
"Certainly, sir or madam." A slot opened; from it slid a microtape phone book for Cook County.
"It's spelled oddly," Quail said as he leafed through the pages of the yellow section. He felt fear, then; abiding fear. "Here it is," he said. "Take me there, to Rekal, Incorporated. I've changed my mind; I don't want to go home."
"Yes, sir or madam, as the case may be," the driver said. A moment later the cab was zipping back in the opposite direction...
As for the idea of you being able to rent out your own private Tesla to become part of a fleet of robotaxis, i doubt many people are going to bother with that for very long.
My father did taxi driving with the family car when i was younger and people don't respect the interior of a taxi, you find left behind litter, cigarette burns, spilled food and drink and on some occasions bodily fluids from those who couldn't be bothered to wait to find a bathroom. And that was with a meat bag driver sat there in the car with the passenger, it would be even worse if people are there unsupervised in a self driving car.
And then there is how all those the extra miles that using it for a taxi will affect your resale value when you come to sell it. Plus the wear and tear on the tires, battery, brakes etc which is costing you more money every time you come to get it serviced. And no doubt your insurance premiums will increase once they find out your using it for a taxi as its more likely to be involved in an accident.
Still its more vapourware to keep the cult of Musk happy and keep that share price at a ridiculous price.
To make it work, Tesluber would need to provide full insurance cover as part of the package to entice owners to sign up - don't forget that it's the driver that's insured, not the vehicle as such. I also suspect they'd offer a reduced lease cost for taxi participation, rather than trying to tempt "owners" to sign up in return for cash.
Even then, people would have to be mad letting their car piss of on its own to offer joyrides to lord knows whom. Imagine coming out of your house in the morning, and finding that your car smells of ciggies and/or weed, is full of rubbish, has feet marks on the dash, and a damp carpet. And maybe a body in the boot.
But, but, but, I glibly say "have to be mad", yet many Tesla drivers earnestly believe that the sun shines out of Elon's arse; Look at the morons queueing up to throw a hundred k in order to be the possessor of a Twattruck. What's the chances that the Tesla users in general are so brainwashed, or simply lacking critical faculties they they'd see letting Tesluber use their car as a great idea?
So many things to factor in....wear & tear, depreciation on the vehicle due to the extra miles, costs incurred to undo peoples' lack of respect, extra insurance premiums, Tesla's cut of the rental fee, electricity to recharge it after a day of being pimped out....I was going to add in income tax but after everything else is taken into consideration I'm beginning to doubt if you'd turn much (if any) of a profit.
"And no doubt your insurance premiums will increase once they find out your using it for a taxi as its more likely to be involved in an accident."
Insurance companies already list Uber and Lyft by name as prohibited uses with bog standard personal insurance. Many of those drivers also aren't licensed to transport passengers in the places that require a special endorsement for that. With a proper taxi, many locales require that the driver's license is displayed within view of a passenger.
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