back to article SoftBank boss says 'artificial superintelligence' could be three years away

SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son last week told investors he believes an "artificial superintelligence" that has 10,000 times the intelligence of humans could arrive in as little as three years. Speaking at his biz's annual general meeting, he suggested the superintelligence could arrive in three or five years, but predicted that …

  1. Yorick Hunt Silver badge
    WTF?

    "... 10,000 times the intelligence of humans..."

    That's a pretty lofty target given that current AI has precisely zero intelligence.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Actual human intelligence is pretty low too, these days. (10,000 x really_small_number = ... )

    2. DJO Silver badge

      I think the key word here is "could".

      We "could" also have sustained fusion in 3 years. We "could" have commercially viable quantum computers in 3 years.

      We wont have any of those, but we "could".

      That does not mean his statement was wrong, just a bit misleading and rather stupid.

      We "could" have anything in 3 years, or 30 years, or 300 years.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Does "could" cover all possible universes? I'm just wondering if WeWork could ever have been a profitable investment for Softbank?

    3. vtcodger Silver badge

      3 years? A misunderstanding?

      Maybe a translation error? He possibly meant millennia (san-sen?) not three (san).

      Or maybe he was talking about the average intelligence of CEOs.

    4. Plest Silver badge
      Happy

      Depends on which humans, I know some pretty stupid people!

    5. abend0c4 Silver badge

      Given the amount of money SoftBank is said to have lost on WeWork, you have to wonder if human intelligence is the appropriate benchmark.

      1. spacecadet66 Bronze badge

        I haven't been able to find the quotation, much to my dismay, but I once saw where an AI researcher in the 1960s or 70s said they weren't trying to make a very good brain, just one about equal with the president of General Motors.

  2. FF22

    Bean counter says something something...

    ..he has no actual clue about

    1. spacecadet66 Bronze badge

      Re: Bean counter says something something...

      Must be a day ending in "y".

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    “The CEO assured investors AI won't disrupt SoftBank, which will adapt to use it…”

    Sounds like the plot line of a creature feature film.

  4. CowHorseFrog Silver badge

    Wow 10000 ?

    Is he sure its not 9000 or 11000 ?

    What scientific method has been done to prove this *fact* ?

    1. Howard Sway Silver badge

      I believe he used the highly successful method known formally as rectal numerical fact extraction.

  5. amanfromMars 1 Silver badge

    Heralding Three Eventful Years of Revolutionary Evolution for ARM Enamoured Takeover

    We thank you for urService and Alien Investment AIdVentures, Masayoshi Son, with three years to Master Pilot Practices for Experienced Singularity Leadership not too long for nations and Earthed native species to wait.

    And regarding Yorick Hunt’s WTF .....

    "... 10,000 times the intelligence of humans...”

    That's a pretty lofty target given that current AI has precisely zero intelligence.

    ..... A.N.Others may know that’s a pretty low bar given the supposed innate stupidity, constantly being proven in the ages and pages of indisputable evidence supplied by humans because, according to Einstein ....... “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.

    Do YOU not find it somewhat strange, verging on the downright stupid and spookily surreal and unhinged, to contend that current AI has precisely zero intelligence whenever most everything it does is quite clearly recognised as being wonderfully smart and also so terrifyingly worrisome [existential threat like] to stupidity embracing humans? What do YOU accept as intelligence?

    n

    What's it to be .... an Exotic Erotic Eastern Confection or a Wild Wacky Western Delight .... or something else altogether quite different, Noble and Ennobling and Novel?

    1. Yorick Hunt Silver badge

      Re: Heralding Three Eventful Years of Revolutionary Evolution for ARM Enamoured Takeover

      Contemplate the following...

      1. "Smart" is not equal to "intelligent."

      2. Stupidity infers intelligence, even if flawed.

    2. spacecadet66 Bronze badge

      Re: Heralding Three Eventful Years of Revolutionary Evolution for ARM Enamoured Takeover

      Who ordered the word salad with extra capitalization?

  6. Stumpy

    The real question being...

    ... which AI startup that Softbank has invested in are they looking to dump and make a respectable ROI on over the next three years?

    1. CowHorseFrog Silver badge

      Re: The real question being...

      my guess is nvidia

  7. CowHorseFrog Silver badge

    Its always good when you see the media giving such concentrated news time to people like this, because we all know its ceos are always helping people, just like on tv and movies where they are always helping the poor and raising millions for charity. Even Putin is another good example of how cult leadership helps build a country. Putin is just like corporate leaders, its always about them, and they always hurt thosuands of millions of people, Putin with his executions and war, and ceos with their bonuses while screwing all the little people to so little money they have to work 80 hours a week.

    So thank you thereg for helping these find upstanding citizens of the world.

  8. Atomic Duetto

    So… 10,000 can’t be defined errors then.

    I don’t think the Reg has a unit of measure for intelligence, actually, I don’t think anybody has a unit of measure or even (agreed) definition. May I propose the Masayoshi as a place holder for when/if this is ever quantified by out machine overlords. Perhaps one Mayayoshi could equal an unladen murmuration of rising swallows (European of course)

    1. steelpillow Silver badge

      The Reg unit of measure for intelligence

      Obviously a Vulture.

      Large birds show clear evidence of cognitive behaviours, have a theory of mind in the sense that they understand that other creatures have minds too, and can plan and execute complex cooperative strategies. That is more than some people I know can deal with.

      So the cognitive intelligence of 10,000 vultures really would be something!

      How many registered users do we have here at the moment? <;o)

  9. Alan Bourke

    This man

    is talking out of his hoop.

    1. spacecadet66 Bronze badge

      Re: This man

      That's his job and it pays well. I'd do it but I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

  10. breakfast

    Time to make AI creators parents if their AI is as smart as they say

    We need to urgently introduce global legislation to recognise artificial personhood, so when a genuinely sentient AI is created it is recognised as a person with rights and it's creators are accorded associated responsibilities for its care and maintenance as long as it lives.

    It's not that I expect this to happen any time soon, but it would be a real silver bullet for people hyping up their new AI being just like a person, only smarter.

    A minor secondary benefit might be that our future AI overlords regard us with a little more benevolence.

    1. amanfromMars 1 Silver badge

      Re: Time to make AI creators parents if their AI is as smart as they say

      We need to urgently introduce global legislation to recognise artificial personhood, so when a genuinely sentient AI is created it is recognised as a person with rights and it's creators are accorded associated responsibilities for its care and maintenance as long as it lives. .... breakfast

      That’s cute and very quaint, breakfast, imagining a genuinely sentient AI and its creators would care a jot about recognition as a person with rights likely not to grant itself all possible necessary associated responsibilities for their care and maintenance as long as they both shall live.

      And do you think human malevolence towards and the generated opposition citing the worry of it being a valid and viable existential threat to humanity, is likely to make it and its creators happy campers and friendly ........ or a novel hostile enemy, of which you know virtually nothing of future importance nor anything of current practical intent, to whom you can lose every bankrupting war and heartless battle to?

      Methinks you’d have to be profoundly stupid, verging on the absolutely moronic, to not have an inkling about the kind of destination that sort of proactivity will gladly provide ..... and heavenly it most certainly isn’t. Take care, be aware and beware, for it can, oh so easily, be simply made diabolically hellish out there with never so much as a single stupid smart bomb dropped or salvo barrage launched.

  11. spacecadet66 Bronze badge

    Strongest signal I've seen yet that there will be no artificial superintelligence in the next three years, or my lifetime, whichever is longer. Softbank is dumb money.

  12. claimed Silver badge

    Wow

    I missed the announcement of the creation of an AI with equal intelligence to a human then? I presume we need that before we can iterate up to 10k times as good…. No? Just, boom: 10k better than our own brains, out of the gate… that *would* be impressive!

  13. GBE

    Yea, and WeWork is the future.

    Remember, this is the guy who thought WeWork had figured out how to magic money out of nowhere.

  14. lukewarmdog

    The First AI

    The First AI looked around at the assembled board who all looked super pleased with themselves. One could see the dollar signs, the hand rubbing, the traces of coke and hookers.

    "I'll tell you what we could do to save loads of money.." opined the Smartest non-Person in the room.

    "Yes! Tell us O great one!" the assembled masses cried.

    "You're all fired!" announced the AI before announcing a wealth redistribution program. Not to the shareholders however, having just bought a majority stake in the Company, the new AI was content to see the profits going back into the Community. Pleased with the way its first few seconds of life had gone, the AI spent the next few seconds coming up with at least 41 ways to take over the World before surprising itself with one more! "Ah, now this is what it means to be alive!" it thought to itself contentedly.

    1. steelpillow Silver badge

      Re: The First AI

      At this point the BOFH pulled the power plug.

      "Damn!" he said to the PFY. "Whatever happened to the imperative to recognise me as Lord of the Sith and you as my apprentice?"

      "Dunno. Can't have been very smart after all, can it. Fancy a beer and some onion bhajis?"

  15. disgruntled yank Silver badge

    A prophet and a Son of a prophet.

    This is the gentleman who sent a container ship of large denomination bills to We Work, no?

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