back to article NASA finds humanity would totally fumble asteroid defense

Earth possesses "limited readiness" to "quickly implement" needed space missions to defend itself against a devastating asteroid strike, even with 14 years' notice. In an exercise involving multiple US government agencies during April 2024, NASA conducted a so-called "tabletop" game in which participants plot their response to …

  1. DJO Silver badge

    Blind optimism at it's worst.

    But don't worry, it might never happen. And if it does, we'll figure something out and muddle through

    What, like climate change? The human race's ability to step up and act against an imminent catastrophe seems to be thwarted at every point by the idiots in power.

    1. Snake Silver badge

      Re: Blind optimism at it's worst.

      So, what both you and they are essentially saying with all their smarts and all their studies...

      is that Don't Look Up was right on target (pun unintentional). Life imitates art, yet again.

      1. Catkin Silver badge

        Re: Blind optimism at it's worst.

        I think Don't Look Up is an appealing fantasy for those with a certain mindset but I also don't think it overall tracks with reality as far as an asteroid approaching the Earth.

        Look at how much was spent during the Cold War on both the Space Race and, dwarfing that, weapons systems. If anything, every two-bit populist despot with a space capability would be tripping over the rest to be the one to save the Earth and gain eternal credibility. Unlike climate change, it's a very appealing target because it offers the opportunity to hold a thumb up to the camera and declare 'mission accomplished'; plus spending public money is far easier than imposing rules upon the public.

        The issues raised by the exercise weren't ones of apathy but, rather, poor coordination.

      2. Wzrd1 Silver badge

        Re: Blind optimism at it's worst.

        Well, there was one hero in Don't Look Up.

        The bronteroc.

    2. heyrick Silver badge

      Re: Blind optimism at it's worst.

      Came here to say the same thing. How can you possibly expect us to do anything useful about an imminent threat that might give us weeks or months of notice, when we're failing so hard at a slow motion problem that has been known about for decades.

      It's not reassuring that the right wing candidates are so anti environment because green stuff is perceived as "leftie". Sure, they're not perfect but I don't think sticking fingers in ears and effectively "fuck the future" is anything more than a populist vote grabber and yet...

      1. Pascal Monett Silver badge

        You're obviously not wrong, but you've omitted one factor : Big Oil.

        Big Oil is doing everything it can to slow our response to climate change because it thinks that is in its interests. An asteroid that will devastate a large portion of the Earth just might endanger its extraction facilities as well, and Big Oil won't like that.

        So I'm thinking Big Oil just might be a driving force in this scenario.

        1. Terry 6 Silver badge

          No. Oil companies would be looking a where their fields and refineries are distributed and planning for the amazing price rises to come from the remaining supplies..

        2. very angry man

          Big oil will supply the LUBE so it will just slip in, or past andafter the yelling and screaming it will be over big oil will be satisfied

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Blind optimism at it's worst.

        > How can you possibly expect us to do anything useful about an imminent threat that might give us weeks or months of notice, when we're failing so hard at a slow motion problem that has been known about for decades.

        Mostly because it *has* been known about for decades and is still not going to be terminal for decades to come.

        In other words, it can still be ignored by a massive number of people 'cos "I'll be dead before it is a real problem" aka "I'm alright, now bugger off".

        Threatening them on a scale of up to months will get more of a response.

        Just a damn shame that preparation for an asteroid diversion mission actually needs longer than that, so, yeah, you are correct, we can't do anything *useful*.

    3. hoola Silver badge

      Re: Blind optimism at it's worst.

      An asteroid hit would probably sort out climate change as well stopping humans from doing even more damage to the planet.

      Sure the outcome would not be great but the planet has survived, life as it was at the time did not however that is probably a good thing.

      Humans are the smartest, most stupid, selfish and destructive being that has ever existed.

    4. Cliffwilliams44 Silver badge

      Re: Blind optimism at it's worst.

      Considering the lies that have been spread by the Church of Climatology, expecting the people to believe them when they say the sky is falling is a great leap.

  2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

    This was an exercise. It lacked something: reality. The threat of extinction concentrates the mind wonderfully.

    1. John Robson Silver badge

      It does, at least in theory.

      Climate change shows just how slow we can be to an existential threat.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Climate won't wipe out humanity, it'll just readjust our numbers to sustainable levels.

        Not pleasant, but we'll muddle through as always.

        1. Denarius Silver badge

          happening already. Population implosion is underway. Refer to Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea. Oh and some backwater of hysterics once known as Europe

          1. Cliffwilliams44 Silver badge

            This has nothing to do with climate!

          2. Jimmy2Cows Silver badge

            Nothing to do with climate. All to do with aging populations, a common reduction in number of children per family that pretty much seems to happen everywhere that education and general living standards have improved above a certain threshold, and increased longevity that comes with improved healthcare and medical science. There's simply no need to have a large number of children.

            That skews the demographics and we've been seeing the effects of that grow over the last 10-20 years, and the number of elderly are starting to outstrip the number of younger working people available to support them, both directly and indirectly (via taxation and welfare programmes).

            The predicted outcome of this is a population implosion at some point in the next 50 years or so, and the massive economic collapse that comes with that as there will be far fewer working people paying into the tax pots, thereby reducing government incomes and GDPs.

            Another looming global problem that no one seems able to do anything about, because it's far enough in the future to be someone else's problem.

            1. DJO Silver badge

              Another factor is reliable contraception and plain old economics. Having children is very expensive especially in social backwaters like the USA where having a baby can cost over $10,000 before you even get the brat home.

              So now people can choose how many children to have and when to have them so most will stop at one or 2 if they can afford that many.

              If you want to encourage people to have more children make it less of an economic burden but as other costs have skyrocketed, mainly housing, basically we're screwed until the economy rebalances which it shows no sign of doing soon. If housing costs average earners more then 50% of all the money coming into the household, the system is fucked and most people will be unable to afford luxuries such as children.

        2. hoola Silver badge

          Whilst that is correct it however favours rich nations that can buy stuff at the expense of poor nations.

    2. Paul Crawford Silver badge

      Only when they actually see the asteroid on its final flaming course to hit them/their country will the take notice, scream, and try to blame anyone else for nothing being done.

      The scientists and engineers who warned and advised of action 10-20 years before will have been ignored.

      1. MachDiamond Silver badge

        "The scientists and engineers who warned and advised of action 10-20 years before will have been ignored."

        Of course. The likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Earth was "only a theory".

        "Hot Fudge Sundae will be on a Tuesday this year"

        1. KarMann Silver badge
          Mushroom

          Stop

          Hammer time.

          (Those who know, know.)

      2. that one in the corner Silver badge

        > The scientists and engineers who warned

        And the rock star & film maker who joined in with the warning.

        "I'm a shooting star, leaping through the sky"

    3. heyrick Silver badge

      "The threat of extinction concentrates the mind wonderfully."

      Depends. If it's supposed to strike Ohio then yes, expect all manner of plans to push it, nuke it, whatever. Huge amounts of money will be expended in getting anything with wings into space. They'll even make an official licenced video game.

      But if it is supposed to hit Kazakhstan, you can bet the discussion will be on impact management, acceptable losses, and so on.

      Either way, it'll be the 6th extinction event.

      And forty million years from now, sentient cats will dig up styrofoam packets and wonder if McDonald's was some sort of god that we were required to make offerings to. But they'll have an idea of what we looked like, all those little Playmobil and Lego people.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        40 million years from now animals (if they still exist) will look wildly different to what we know or expect. It's called evolution...

        1. that one in the corner Silver badge

          > wildly different to what we know or expect

          The changes over that - or any - time period don't *have* to lead to 'wildly different" creatures; if the path leading to sentient cats digging up McDonalds is a survivable strategy across 40 million years time, that is a route evolution can happily take.

          > animals (if they still exist)

          Unless there is a total wipeout of life, not "just" an extinction level event, "animals" are highly likely to still exist in 40 million years - the basic idea of "animal" has already been here a *lot* longer than that! After all, we often say that cockroaches will inherit the world (although my money is on tardigrades, huge monstrous tardigrades, almost a centimetre long!)

    4. Eclectic Man Silver badge
      Alien

      Ford Prefect : "I find the prospect of death contracts the mind wonderfully"

      HHGTTG, first series.

  3. Terry 6 Silver badge

    It'll be far worse

    There will be;

    A) " It won't happen, because God will protect us "nutters

    B) "The cost is too high for something that might not happen or might not be so bad" nutters

    C) "It's the responsibility of someone else" nutters

    D) "We've plenty of time" nutters

    E) "Fuck the peasants I have my underground bunker" nutters

    and last but not least

    F) "It's God's will" nutters ( not to be confused with A above)

    All sitting in positions of power and waiting for disaster to strike

    1. LoonyToonz

      Re: It'll be far worse

      You forgot

      1) Its not real its a false flag conspircay concocted by BIG SPACE and the illuminati to traffic children via tunnels, and depopulate the earth

      2) The earth is flat and the dome/firmament will save us

      1. Terry 6 Silver badge

        Re: It'll be far worse

        ...false flag conspircay (sic) concocted by BIG SPACE and the illuminati pizza restaurants to traffic children via tunnels, and depopulate the earth

        FTFY

      2. Denarius Silver badge

        Re: It'll be far worse

        FFS. Read Letters from a Stoic, last chapter. Two thousand years ago it was known that the Earth was round, and the effects of gravity. Stop repeating that ill-informed myth invented by Washing Irving bigging up 19th century arrogance.. BTW, Senecas advice on life is well worth reading

    2. Bebu
      Windows

      Re: It'll be far worse

      The A to F of nobbies roasted nutters.

      Seems the Keystone Cops have nothing on this slapstick.

      Can add the Many Worlds Interpretation nutters - doesn't matter - in an uncountable number of the possible worlds it won't happen and in those I will be ok. (I did say nutters.)

    3. Throatwarbler Mangrove Silver badge
      Holmes

      Re: It'll be far worse

      Don't forget the "any sort of government action which inconveniences me even slightly is overreaching Socialist oppression" nutters.

    4. parrot

      Re: It'll be far worse

      Just wondering if "all hail the fast-moving rocky orb" nutters are a subset of group F or deserve a category in their own right?

    5. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: It'll be far worse

      Wot, no "Let's build a space wall and charge the aliens" nutters?

    6. xyz Silver badge

      Re: It'll be far worse

      Bruce Willis got killed by the last one, so we're stuffed next time.

    7. Denarius Silver badge

      Re: It'll be far worse

      really ? Because all the pollies I hear of outside Middle East are in practice full bore materialists. Bore in both senses of word. One suspects highly selective biases at work. BTW, references to concentrating mind derive from Dr Johnsons quote. When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully

    8. UnknownUnknown

      Re: It'll be far worse

      You missed Fake Asteroid - anti-aster’s ?

  4. cornetman Silver badge

    The uncertainty would play an enormous factor surely. At something like 72% of a strike that has a 45% chance of affecting no-one will be the only excuse that politicians would need to effectively do nothing. Scientists would be accused of sensationalism.

    I often wonder in these scenarios how it would play out in terms of the public and what we would be told. Like we see in films, would the fools in charge decide to not tell us anything due to fear of panic? Not sure.

    1. ThatOne Silver badge

      > would the fools in charge decide to not tell us anything due to fear of panic?

      Definitely. Because scared voters might vote for somebody telling them there is no danger, and there will be lots of those, we live in the era of "just tell them what they want to hear".

      Also, because it will take some (too much) time till politicians understand the problem, and since there is no "department of incoming asteroid doom" with action plans at hand, they will lose days if not weeks wondering what to do (besides sending their family and assets out of harm's way).

      Even if the government was entirely staffed with intelligent and educated people (yes, yes, let's assume), they will still keep that on a need-to-know basis to prevent chaos. Because obviously all the nutcases will go wild.

      1. Denarius Silver badge

        Other way round. The bureaucrat, pollies and clearks would love to grab total power "For your own good". Then do SFA except to dig a bunker for themselves, big money mates which ironically would probably be at impact point.

    2. Cliffwilliams44 Silver badge

      More like the Thanos Cult (otherwise known as the over-population cult) will throw up roadblocks in the hope that nothing will get done so they can hide in their bunkers while 2/3 of the world's population is wiped out! They will pop the champaign at that moment!

  5. Dizzy Dwarf

    This is why the US needs ...

    ... Bruce Willis for President.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: This is why the US needs ...

      Why not, the other two candidates have varying degrees of dementia too.

  6. TheMaskedMan Silver badge

    If something like this were to happen, you could be sure that getting politicians to do anything would be worse than herding cats. All the nutjobs listed above, and more, would be out in force making actual progress impossible, Joe Public would either ignore it or panic about it, preppers would suddenly become very popular...

    No, an "official" response would be practically impossible. What you'd need would be someone who could operate independently, with the resources (perhaps covertly funded by government) to design, build and deploy their own vehicles relatively quickly. If they had sufficient capacity - say, a factory or two dedicated to knocking out heavy lift vehicles at a rapid rate - they would probably be in a position to do something about the threat, and maybe get enough people off world (mostly politicians, I expect) to ride out the impact in the event that mitigation failed.

    If anyone was doing anything like that, I might start to wonder if there was something we hadn't been told...

    1. ThatOne Silver badge
      Unhappy

      > to design, build and deploy their own vehicles relatively quickly

      What you're talking about there is not an asteroid, its a giant snail slooowly inching towards Earth... :-D

      Seriously, time between detection and impact is measured in days, at best a week, in that time they won't even have the time to decide who will design those "vehicles".

      Remember, the movie "2012" (besides being a movie) was about a process which took (IIRC) several years. An asteroid big enough to be detected several years ahead would probably utterly destroy our planet, leaving us with--well, nothing, and nowhere to go.

      1. Pascal Monett Silver badge

        Um, sorry, but I believe the movie you're referencing is called Armageddon.

        2012 is about neutrinos heating up the Earth's core.

        Armageddon is the one where Bruce Willis sacrifices himself to save his daughter's love life (oh, and the rest of Humanity as well).

        1. ThatOne Silver badge

          > I believe the movie you're referencing is called Armageddon.

          No, I was indeed talking about "2012", because the OP mentioned vessels the PTBs were supposed to build to "get enough people off world ". Which is the plot of "2012".

          In "Armageddon" (IIRC) nobody builds anything (they use shuttles IIRC), they just send a group to blow it up.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            > "get enough people off world ". Which is the plot of "2012".

            The events of "2012" take place over 3 years, but the plot isn't to get anyone off Earth, it is to get the stinking rich (billion dollar tickets) onto ships, cruise-liner "Arks", along with all the art treasures they can carry.

            Stephen Baxter's "Flood" and "Ark" does the floaty boat ark thing as well, but goes on to spaceship Arks as the waters just keep on rising and rising...

  7. Scene it all

    Start with deep-space radar to watch for such things incoming. Of course in *Rendezvous with Rama* this is how we detected the alien spacecraft ...

    1. ThatOne Silver badge
      Unhappy

      > Start with deep-space radar to watch for such things incoming.

      That would cost money!... Result, our biggest "space radar" (Arecibo Observatory) has been left to break apart and is now decommissioned. Note there are bigger radio telescopes, but they can't emit, and while there are some radar astronomy telescopes (like the Goldstone Solar System Radar), they are way less sensitive.

      1. Eclectic Man Silver badge

        Don't ignore the Moon

        I doubt that any Earth-bound of orbiting RADAR could be as good as a high resolution telescope using reflected sunlight.

        What we need is effective discovery and tracking of Near Earth Objects, AND, an effective way of dealing with things that might be on a collision course with either Earth or the Moon. Yes folks, a major asteroid strike on the Moon could be devastating for the Earth with debris raining down on us for centuries afterwards.

        And frankly, 'running for the hills' will not be an option.

        And on that cheerful note, have a happy weekend everyone!

        1. Bill Gray

          Re: Don't ignore the Moon

          I doubt that any Earth-bound of orbiting RADAR could be as good as a high resolution telescope using reflected sunlight.

          You are correct. Radar, including Arecibo, has discovered a total of exactly zero asteroids. It does an excellent job of measuring distance and radial velocity and physical properties, but its role is not in discovery. It needs a pretty good orbit (based on optical data) before it can detect an asteroid. (After that, the precision of the orbit increases tremendously.)

          The problem is that radar drops as the inverse fourth power of distance. This is why the military radars tracking space junk can see ~10cm objects in low earth orbit, but struggle to detect much past geostationary orbit (they track only a few of the larger objects by radar).

          1. MachDiamond Silver badge

            Re: Don't ignore the Moon

            "This is why the military radars tracking space junk can see ~10cm objects in low earth orbit,"

            Except now most detections will boil down to "it's just another Starlink sat" or deployment debris. In the future it might be a choice of several massive constellations.

          2. ThatOne Silver badge
            Facepalm

            Re: Don't ignore the Moon

            Please have a look at the page titled "1258 Radar-Detected Asteroids and Comets" at NASA/JPL: https://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/

            1. Bill Gray

              Re: Don't ignore the Moon

              Note that the page title says "detected', not 'discovered'. Every single one of those 1258 objects and counting was found optically and a pretty good orbit determined before the radar guys got a look at it.

              1. ThatOne Silver badge

                Re: Don't ignore the Moon

                > Note that the page title says "detected', not 'discovered'.

                Didn't say the contrary. Horses for courses. You obviously can not sweep the whole sky 360° with a radar beam and hope it will detect something! That would be ridiculous. But you need radar if you want to know what a given body's shape and structure is, especially if you plan on affecting it somehow. The alternative would be sending something up there to have a look, which would mean some additional months/years wasted.

            2. that one in the corner Silver badge

              Re: Don't ignore the Moon

              Took a look at the list you reference.

              The first entry is Ceres.

              Pretty sure that wasn't discovered by radar.

              1. Richard 12 Silver badge

                Re: Don't ignore the Moon

                Discovered, no.

                But measuring the size and orbital elements to sufficient precision is a task for which radar is well suited.

                Any action will require the target to be located to a very high level of accuracy and precision, otherwise we risk missing with our best shot.

  8. Spaller

    Of course, an environmental impact statement for such an event needs to be filed in order to get a launch license.

    1. Richard 12 Silver badge

      Obviously

      There's no point in trying if the launcher would do more damage than the impactor.

      Though back in the real world, those assessments are trivial for any preexisting launcher and launch complex, and no sane person would rely on an unproven launcher to save the world.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      ...but, but, but ...

      ....The asteriod may not have filed ITS environmental impact statement , so event cannot happen, surely?

  9. Don Jefe

    COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

    Knowledge of a catastrophic situation only helps extremists. Religious nutters in particular. Over 7 million people died from COVID, even though it should have been fairly easy to deal with. Supply chain problems are still extant.

    If people couldn’t get their collective shit together well enough to deal with a virus, the idea they can cope with a giant stone screaming (silently) through the vacuum of space towards the Earth is laughable.

    Every country with expansionist dreams would march to war, hedging their bets that enough would survive the impact. Religious kooks would be killing themselves and violently converting people to ‘save’ them. People would starve because nobody is going to work. For everyone else it’ll be drinking, looting, and raping until they run out of booze. Then just raping and looting.

    We’re better off not knowing until the galactic pebble of reconfiguration is inside cislunar space. That way we won’t have to deal with the consequences of all the bad decisions that get made before the end.

    1. Pascal Monett Silver badge
      Windows

      Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

      I would like to think that you're wrong.

      Then I look at the state of conflict in this world, the Republican party and Trump, and all the idiots that are pretending to be responsible for my country, and I think to myself : "meh, bring on the asteroid".

      Sure, there will be a bad moment to pass but, like ripping off a bandage, if you do it quickly, it gets better quickly as well.

      It's still a horrible thought to have, but hey, Trump.

      Now, where did I leave that booze ? I need to stock up.

      1. DS999 Silver badge

        Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

        Yeah Trump would claim people shouldn't worry about it, that he's already got a plan for it - and add that "all the scientists were amazed how much I know about space, they said 'sir, how is it you know more about space than I do after I have spent my life doing this?'"

        Then he'd put his "best people" who were all nutjob conspiracy theorists chosen because they have unwavering loyalty to him instead of actual qualifications, and they'd sabotage the efforts of those trying to come up with a viable plan.

        He'd hold regular press conferences, and even on the day it was due to hit he'd be declaring claims that he asteroid is still on course to hit the earth are "fake news"

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

          And Murphy's law being what it is, the damn thing would probably not hit him anyway.

      2. Don Jefe

        Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

        I certainly like to hope I’m wrong. The abject failure of humanity to deal with COVID undermined a lifetime of faith in mankind rising to a challenge, unfortunately.

        It definitely changed my secret desire for an extraterrestrial civilization invading the planet, causing man to band together for a common cause. After defeating the aliens, salvaging their technology and claiming our place as an intergalactic society.

        1. Catkin Silver badge

          Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

          'Abject' seems pretty strong to me. Mistakes were made, people did shitty things but we got multiple safe, effective vaccines to the masses at a speed never before seen and conducted testing (most notably rapid whole-genome sequencing) on a scale that would have been science fiction just a decade prior.

        2. claimed Silver badge

          Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

          What are you on about? COVID was dealt with, we’re all still here…

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

            > COVID was dealt with, we’re all still here…

            Not all of us who could have still been here.

            And the those who are around are still catching COVID (still a good idea to have a few lateral flow tests around, especially if you are going to any conferences).

        3. DS999 Silver badge

          Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

          After defeating the aliens

          You think if we can't defeat covid we could defeat aliens who possess technology that allows them to travel between star systems? I don't care how well humans band together, nothing like Independence Day or even War of the Worlds would happen.

          I would modify your wish somewhat. If we get invaded by aliens I hope they are benevolent and realize we are incapable of taking care of ourselves, so they subjugate us for our own good.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

            >> After defeating the aliens

            > You think if we can't defeat covid we could defeat aliens who possess technology that allows them to travel between star systems?

            No, he *said* he that the reaction to covid shows that we couldn't band together and beat the aliens (and therefore we would *not* be able to steal their tech etc[1]). Please read the sentences *before* the one you decided to cherry-pick.

            [1] if you do not recognise it, the wish for an alien invasion is an oft-repeated one, in the hope that we would put our squabbles aside and come together in a single cause; the winning and taking their tech is the big-standard SF movie ending to the scenario - e.g. "Independence Day".

    2. Denarius Silver badge

      Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

      Don, you realise that movies are fiction, right ? Stupid fiction showcasing the contempt of the clever film makers for ordinary citizens. Having been in a few emergency situations, mostly it goes the other way at least in my mostly sane country. Studies of emergency mangement now show that supporting spontaneous local leadership has best outcomes. Remote centralised "manglement" usually precedes stuffs and ineffectiveness.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

        > Having been in a few emergency situations...

        Immediate emergencies - such as rivers bursting banks, fires, avalanches, volcanic eruptions, car crashes - or slow-burn "we are ok now, but in a month's time we are in big trouble"?

        I am willing to bet you mean you've been in the former, or you wouldn't bother to mention it - after all, literally *every* person alive is currently in the middle of multiples of the latter - including the non-zero chances of an asteroid strike.

        When there is an emergency right now, right in front of you, then, yes, the people on the scene to react well and local leadership is allowed to work.

        Now, just look at real-life behaviour for slow-burn and non-localised situations: politicians have time to stick their oars in, everybody and their dog is shouting an opinion, money and resources get wasted...

        *After* the asteroid hits, and the fires are all real and visible and *right* here, your local people and local leaders will all pitch in to help put them out.

    3. Denarius Silver badge

      Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

      Don, religious nutters having a big effect? Odd. In China as well as the rest of the world barring a few sane places (Denmark) the practical politicians stuffed up entire economies with teh consequences still being worked thru. Dont see any group but devout official atheists in China leadership who really just worship power and ego.

    4. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: COVID-19 Demonstrated Our Doom

      Lot of fun to be had here spotting the ‘50s SF plots relevant to each comment..this one I think is RC Sherriff’s ‘The Hopkins Manuscript’ (1939 but republished in the fifties as ‘The Cataclysm’). Only it was the moon rather than an asteroid.

  10. Paul Herber Silver badge

    When The Clangers find out that a giant planet is going to hit their asteroid what are they going to do about it? I know exactly what they'll do and we'll all end up in the soup.

  11. Stevie

    Bah!

    TL:DR

    We're DOOMED!

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Fleet of Starships

    Hasn't Elon already started his plan to capture any Earth-threatening asteroid and have it soft land on a giant barge? With Full Self Deorbiting by 2022?

  13. ecofeco Silver badge
    Mushroom

    Anyone surpsied?

    Yeah, me neither.

  14. NorthIowan

    Asteroid 2024 MK

    Is supposed to only get to within 0.8 LD of earth on June 29th. It's a "little" one that's only 162 meters (big error bars on the size estimates).

    FWIW, meteor crater in the US was estimated to be 40 yards/meters. Crater is about 1/2 mile across.

    I check Spaceweather.com every day and this one just showed up. So maybe enough time to figure out where it will hit. If it looked to be hitting us.

    1. Bill Gray

      Re: Asteroid 2024 MK

      Just to be clear : we've gotten plenty of data on this guy in the last few days. It'll be the brightest near-earth object in about the last dozen years or so, reaching binocular visibility for folks in the southern hemisphere (and a few of us northerners) on 29 June. Perigee will be at about 295000 +/- 600 km at 13:41 UTC on the 29th, and there is zero probability of an impact on the current pass.

      The brightness is partly due to being close and somewhat big, but also because the geometry is good (i.e., it's opposite the sun and therefore fully illuminated.)

      The main event, though, will be the passage of Apophis in 2029, which will be clearly visible to the naked eye.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: the passage of Apophis in 2029, which will be clearly visible to the naked eye.

        Well, and as with many interesting astronomical events, possibly only *after* it breaks through the cloud layer... :-)

        1. Andy Non Silver badge

          Re: the passage of Apophis in 2029, which will be clearly visible to the naked eye.

          Oh look at that asteroid that has just broken through the cloud layer, wow it's getting really big... SPLAT. ;-)

    2. sitta_europea Silver badge

      Re: Asteroid 2024 MK

      Yeah, big enough to destroy a major city and thirteen days from discovery to closest approach.

      Makes you think.

    3. MachDiamond Silver badge

      Re: Asteroid 2024 MK

      "FWIW, meteor crater in the US was estimated to be 40 yards/meters. Crater is about 1/2 mile across."

      While the crater is 1/2mi across, the pucker in the Earth is much larger. The land is pretty flat where it is so you see clearly how the ground is distorted. It's also mostly dry land with some desert scrub here and there. An impact elsewhere could start some pretty massive fires coupled with taking out emergency services for a large radius and what's left needed to deal with human casualties. There'd be no cell service either as everybody would immediately grab their phones and try to post to their InstaPintaTwitFace account.

  15. Emir Al Weeq

    2038

    2038 you say? Let's hope that none of the defence systems are still 32-bit.

    1. ThatOne Silver badge
      Unhappy

      Re: 2038

      Nope, they are two-bit.

  16. sitta_europea Silver badge

    "But don't worry, it might never happen. And if it does, we'll figure something out and muddle through. Just don't look up."

    The article would greatly have been improved if this sentence had not been written.

  17. Conundrum1885

    Re. 2038

    To be honest, the asteroid might give us enough incentive to go "Full Manhattan Project" and actually build a craft capable of reaching it in time.

    $500B is chump change when the entire planet is at stake.

    Don't forget that should it impact in the ocean the casualties would be worse than a small scale nuclear war, and on land its Goodnight Vienna.

    1. that one in the corner Silver badge

      Re: Re. 2038

      > "Full Manhattan Project" and actually build a craft capable of reaching it in time.

      That definitely needs to be Orion, to fulfill both those criteria.

      No, not that one, this, older, one.

      And when it reaches the rock, it is the design that is actually equipped to deal with it (no, not blow it into pieces, that still leaves pretty much the same amount of rock, and energy, on a collision course; Bruce Willis wasted his sacrifice): push it off to the side.

      Just don't stand near the launch site; you thought Starship could tear up the pad...

    2. ThatOne Silver badge
      Devil

      Re: Re. 2038

      > $500B is chump change when the entire planet is at stake.

      Sure, so everybody will wait for a chump to spend it for them. "Better die rich than live poor" or some such.

  18. JRStern Bronze badge

    Can't really predict impact accurately fourteen years out

    Lucky to get the hour and the hemisphere.

    And 75% chance it hits water.

    If Elon is still around in 2038 and still doing SpaceX I expect he could get five or ten rockets launched in the right direction with even one year's warning.

    What they would carry or do, remains to be determined.

    Optimal idea must be to intercept a year away and divert it.

    1. sitta_europea Silver badge

      Re: Can't really predict impact accurately fourteen years out

      "...Optimal idea must be to intercept a year away and divert it."

      The trouble is we might only get two weeks' notice.

      Like 2024MK, the city-killer that's going to fly by next week at 200,000 miles altitude, which we only found out about last week.

      Makes me truly angry that people like Putin and Kim - who could actually make a positive contribution in this area - are blind as bats and just want to steal something from their neighbours.

    2. KarMann Silver badge
      Boffin

      Re: Can't really predict impact accurately fourteen years out

      Almost right. But we can usually get the hour of impact, if any, quite accurately. After all, if it doesn't hit within about 4 minutes of H-hour, the Earth will have moved another radius along by then, and it'll be a clean miss. Unless it's in an orbit trying to parallel park with us; if it's moving in almost the same direction, at almost the same speed, as Earth, then it has a much bigger window of when it might tip into our Hill sphere and come for us. On the bright (?) side, that kind of scenario also gives the lowest impact speeds, just a little bit more than Earth's escape speed.

      But yeah, 11.2 km/s is still going to leave a mark.

      ETA: And to clarify, that's why you are quite right about the place being so hard to predict. If the time is off by two minutes, then, again, the Earth has moved on about half a radius, and the impact point has suddenly jumped something like 4,000 km (allowing for the projection of the trajectory move onto a sphere). And that's why you might get a belt of possible impact as described in the NASA scenario in TFA, as those parts of the Earth move along through the target zone with its orbital motion.

  19. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Get ahead of the game

    Decide now on a potential solution. Build 6 and station 3 at the opposite side of the sun & 3 this side. 3? One to fail, one to miss and one to hopefully do the job. Launch new sets with new solutions every few years.

  20. ScottishYorkshireMan

    Thing with humans is...

    Things will only be done as long as said 'things' don't affect profits. We see this with the climate change situation. Those with the profits will end up holding their breath whilst they count their money.

    There again, things seem to get done when there is a politician in the money chain, invariably not the right things, but something gets done and then sold to the proles as being the best ever possible solution. strange that innit?

    So, likelihood of being prepared for an asteroid hit? Small, real small. Until we mature enough as a species to move away from financial and material gain.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Thing with humans is...

      You don't think there's an opportunity for an enormous wealth transfer to the military-industrial complex in asteroid defence? It seems to me to be the most perfect fodder for pork barrel politics, with a pay now, ask questions later impetus not seen since the so-called missile gap.

  21. FuzzyTheBear
    Pint

    Worry ?

    What ? Me ? worry ?

    I worry more about earthly events than space threats.

    Example ? Why certainly , we in Quebec had 4 days of temperatures way above 100f reaching a high of ( with humidex ) of 118F

    Global warming is imho a much more serious problem at the moment and much more urgent to address. The fact that our winters gradually went from head high snow cover to merely a foot is also a sign we have a serious issue on our hands. Overpopulation , the earth's resources being drained at an ever faster rate Half a year is all it takes to consume all the resources it takes a year to get / make / grow. Water being misused and the inevitable water wars if this keeps up .Russia that's being a jerk and the threat of nuclear war .. .

    Really .. there's much more pressing issues that are existential threats this very minute to address. Going into space won't solve any of this. What will is a major shift in politics. What we are doing on earth in unsustainable and we have to deal with this stuff with all the science , knowledge , political courage that we have at our disposal. We have to act , we all know it , but politicians don't care , there's none that have enough courage to make the decisions that need to be taken. We know it's got to change but humanity as a whole is like lemmings headed for the cliff and running full speed to take the plunge. I am 63 , ill be dead in a few decades , but i worry about the younger generations that are led by people who haven't got the balls to take the decisions We're on our path to making asteroids irrelevant to our survival. I am not optimistic at all about the way things are going. Fix politics first .. and we all know this ain't going to happen. We prefer to look at our bellybuttons and say " What ? Me ? Worry ? " and keep walking.

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