50 launches, 1 knighthood – Rocket Lab CEO talks heavy-lift rockets, Venus, and Musk Rocket Lab will hit the 50th launch milestone for its Electron rockets this week but will miss a hoped-for late 2024 date for its first Neutron launch. "It's always propulsion," says CEO Sir Peter Beck in an interview with The Register. "Propulsion's always the long pole." "We could have put something on the test stand …
Blue Origin's first launch of its New Glenn, the first stage of which will be reusable, is also imminent.
That made me laugh.
Sir Peter now, is it? Well done you. He's an impressive guy and quietly achieving a lot. Two thirds of his revenue comes from Space Systems, making satellite components for other satellite builders, or providing on-going services for satellites already in orbit (you only need a 10cm cubed box up there to do useful work). I know everyone complains at SpaceX because they have gobbled up the small launch market with their Transporter services, but Beck is doing the correct thing and fighting back by building a larger vehicle to compete.
He's got brains: he knows the market and is helping to forge the future. Good luck to him!
"...looking for a balance in the market against the Falcon 9."
No, I think that the customers are looking for a backup launch provider, even if they are perfectly happy with the Falcon 9. While I haven't heard that SpaceX raised its prices based on the end-of-sale of Delta IV, or the Ariane 5, and the qualification of their successors, having a second or third launch provider just makes commercial sense.
I found his comment about the availablity of liquid oxygen in NZ interesting, but surely Linde could make it happen.
"I found his comment about the availablity of liquid oxygen in NZ interesting, but surely Linde could make it happen."
Yeah, my first thought was why not make their own LOX. But how much will that investment cost and much time with the LOX plant spend doing nothing because there's no launch due? Apart from their launches, is NZ under provided with LOX production? Probably not, they likely have enough to meet local demand and being such a small country, especially population wise, unlikely to have commercial producers wanting to ramp up for what might be spotty, intermittent high demand, but mostly no more than they currently supply.
No, it's general practice to avoid any provider that also uses its own services and is a potential competitor, because there is an obvious conflict of interest.
Elsewhere, it's clear that RocketLabs isn't burning through capital to run tests by launching rockets. This is less spectacular but indicates a good engineering culture. We may see more importance attached to this as the idea of cheap money ends when companies have to refinance.
I don't think they will launch next year, too much work to do including ground systems. By the time neutron has regular launch cadence sadly the goalposts will have moved. He is aiming for a launch cost comparible to F9, problem is SpaceX is looking for a launch cost a magnitude less than F9 for 3 or 4 times the payload. And Sir Peter is right, manufacturing is the hardest part and I don't see them building any factories so far.
Good news is that I think there are enough customers who want a backup to SpaceX including US Government and they seem to be ticking along making satellites.
"“If you took away Starlink”
Yes but you can’t!"
If you are looking at the size of the launch market, you must. It really hasn't become much bigger when you set aside Starlink launches. The heavy lift market hasn't moved much at all which is why there aren't scores of Falcon 9 Heavy's being launched. The Vulcan can lift a pretty large payload with a full compliment of SRB's, yet the core is useful without any for many smaller missions.
Reuse requires a busy cadence to make sense. SpaceX can justify it through all of the Starlink launches now and in the future if they survive. Building a stage that has the capability to land and be used again adds mass and lots of cost. It also dictates a certain mission framework so those pieces aren't moving so fast that they require thermal protection (more mass and cost).
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