Sanctions - not the best tool in the box.
Given that Trump is on course to be their next leader, I'd consider the US to be a country of concern. It won't be long before he starts squeezing primary competitors - Europe, Japan, South Korea and Australia - until they squeak. European NATO members are going to have to crack open those piggy banks, and the US will no doubt be exiting the Paris Accord again. It's like watching a team yo-yo between the premiership and the championship.
quote: the number of advanced semiconductors smuggled into China remains fairly small.
The ones you are counting are the ones that get caught. Somewhere, someone will be running a secure back channel, buying in bulk, relabelling each processor. US sanctions have made chip smugglers national heroes in the Middle Kingdom and ensured they get funding. As well as making domestic chip production a primary goal.
Sanctions have a tendency to backfire. The economic hit and shortages from sanctions on Russian energy, timber and other resources will be the icing on the Brexit cake that does for the Tories, as well as seeing several other European regimes slide in the polls. Other consequences are becoming apparent. Russia is flogging cheap energy to all-comers, and in doing so, pulling them away from the Western (often ex-colonial) sphere of influence. Many Global South nations have a tribal component. Democracy was imposed upon them as a political good at independence. But with high levels of corruption many would be happier to run with a Russian or Chinese political system and bag that cheap energy, Chinese tech and Chinese cash. And all that cheap Russian energy, buying friends, will see a net increase in fossil use. Ironically, the West could have destabilised Putin's regime in months for millions. Now it is paying billions for a forever war, and losing Cold War 2, so many resource rich nations being on the other side of the fence. I guess Plan B will be WWIII, so buckle up everyone.