Re: Maybe
Most of the laptops today Counterpoint cites are using ARM are running macOS, the rest are running Chrome. If the total share reaches 25% it will be because of greater success by Apple or Google, not the failed Windows on ARM experiment. Microsoft has supported other architectures before but they've always thrown in the towel eventually. They have even thrown in the towel on ARM once already, though that was not much of an effort.
I would put the odds at 50/50 at best that Microsoft still supports ARM by the end of the decade. They gain nothing by supporting another architecture, when everyone knows that not only will x86 continue to be supported but will always be the most important platform with ARM permanently relegated to second class status. This isn't like Apple where they introduced support for ARM Macs but that was a migration strategy, not a coexistence strategy with two platforms. Supporting two architectures without any migration strategy just increases your support costs, and increases the burden on developers who follow you.
The market share of Windows ARM PCs is so small it isn't worth it for developers to support ARM - even its very existence costs them money as they have to worry about people having support issues who might be running on ARM and using Microsoft's translation software. If they have an issue is that a bug in your software, in Windows, or in Microsoft's translation? Or maybe some third party piece like a driver that happens to interact with what they were doing.
Qualcomm is the only company interested in making Windows ARM happen, mainly because they saw the smartphone market had matured and expanding into new markets is the only way they can achieve further growth. Eventually they will throw in the towel when they realize they will never succeed in taking any real Windows market share, and without any vendor support Microsoft will give up as well.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
