Re: "move users to a subscription model of S/4HANA in the cloud"
Think of this like using an unsupported version of Windows. It won't suddenly stop working one day, but SAP won't be releasing new updates, won't accept tickets to fix issues, and it will eventually become a greater and greater security risk. Considering this ERP holds your company's mission critical data, and you'll likely be paralyzed without it, having long ago dismantled any older processes for doing things -- assuming anyone around at the company still remembers them. Having that be the major security hazard in your critical infrastructure is only going to be tenable for so long. After all, generally speaking, if you're using SAP you've got people logging into it remotely. Even if it's via a VPN, if any one of those workstations is compromised...
There is also still a self-hosted option for S/4, but they're definitely trying to encourage people onto their cloud services pretty hard.
I'm sure SAP figures all they have to do is sit back and wait. It may not happen all at once, but eventually more and more CTOs will get the message that they don't really have much choice. The only other real alternative is trying to switch to something like Oracle, and just ask anyone in the Birmingham city government what that process is like. Of course at the CTO level they're largely removed from all the pain of the actual implementation/migration, it's only when the costs inevitably start shooting well past estimates that they might start to feel some pressure. Then, of course, they'll either fuck off for another company, leaving everyone holding the bag at the last place, or they'll find a way to blame someone in middle management and scapegoat them to save their own job.