Re: New old tech?
Huawei has consistently outspent the likes of Apple with R&D for longer than I can remember.
Its patent pool is massive and it continues to be one of the largest patent filers (even within the US) on the planet.
If they were using old, stockpiled chips, why did they wait until the end of 2023 to use them?
Clearly there is a much bigger picture here that you aren't seeing (even if these chips were stockpiled).
A lot has changed in a couple of years.
Qualcomm announced during its recent conference call that it would receive no further material revenues from Huawei. That pricked a lot of ears.
Now we have the Mate 60 series using self developed chips for the first time in a couple of years.
There was talk of 7nm SMIC success but everyone said yields were poor and costs were high.
But wait, we now have the Kirin 9000s on the Mate 60 series (which is selling out fast and projections are of sales of up to 15,000,000 units). They have just announced the X5 folding phone with the same chip and there is talk of a tablet too. That's a massive amount of product.
I would say yields don't look like an issue at all.
But let's take a look past this release.
At the start of the year, Huawei described sanctions as the 'new normal'. They also said they were moving back to the two flagship yearly release cycle (P and Mate series). Onto that you have to add at least three folding flagship releases (Pocket and X series) and onto that, all the non-flagship phones (Nova series etc).
In just a few months the P70 series will be here, too.
To me, that says Huawei fully expects to be able to satisfy chip demand across the board for the short to mid term. No matter what sanctions might come there way.
Why?
Because the Mate 60 series is reported to be 90% indigenous and every single supplier from that 90% has taken business away from US suppliers (who now can't supply Huawei due to sanctions).
The total of lost revenues for those US companies is 11 billion dollars annually (at a minimum). Those are figures from 2019 so they are probably going to be higher now.
That's 11 billion dollars (at a minimum - annually) that is going to fund Chinese R&D for improvement in its products.
Do you doubt those products will improve?
When they become competitive with those US suppliers on price and technology, they will enter direct competition with them.
First they lost access to their key customers. Then direct competitors appeared to compete with them worldwide.
Let's take just one area: EDA tools which are dominated by US companies. LAM Research had said the impact of losing Huawei amounted to around 2.5 billion dollars.
We know very well that Huawei has invested in the semiconductor tool chain. The entire toolchain. That includes EDA. Let's suppose for a moment that HiSilicon used Chinese EDA software to bring this chip to market.
Can you comprehend the seismic shift that represents?
Even if they used a pirated licence codes to use LAM tools, we know indigenous tools are coming. The result is the same. It's game changing, but right across the entire board.
The same applies to ASML and lithography. It looks fairly clear that ASML DUV equipment is being used for the Kirin9000s but we know that Huawei is filing lithography related patents so indigenous machines will come to market. The question here, is when? No one knows.
However, the thing almost no one is talking about is 'what comes next?'. All we hear about is China 'catching up' to current technology.
But what about post silicon? There is always a very real possibility in these fields that someone stop focusing on 'catching up' and instead leapfrog the competition.
Sanctions have forced the entire Chinese semiconductor industry to double down and come up with accelerated solutions. It's not like in 2018 when they could coast along while still importing foreign technology. Sanctions changed all that.
That's why the Mate 60 series is making so much news. It's symbolic.