back to article Arm reveals just how vulnerable it is to trade war with China

Arm's much-anticipated SEC filing this week did more than detail an impending IPO: it revealed just how worried the British chip designer is at the prospect of getting locked out of China. That regulatory filing documented various risks, uncertainties, and threats to Arm's ability to do business in the Middle Kingdom, which …

  1. martinusher Silver badge

    Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

    (Nice subtitle, BTW.)

    I grumble often about the rather hamfisted approach to China that's being taken by our (US) bureaucrats because they're fighting a war they just cannot win but they're going to do a whole lot of collateral damage trying. The goal is to cut off 'advanced' processors from China, or to put it simply (as one of our politicians did recently) they want to keep China "five generations behind" the US. There's so much wrong with this mindset that its difficult to know where to begin but they've got to get through their thick skulls that they're not dealing with North Korea here, they're not only crippling a major market for US products but also risking wholesale replacement of those products by less encumbered ones. (I can hear the argument "But they obviously will never be able to produce anything that's as good as we can" which completely overlooks who makes what.)

    Illustrating just how screwed up we are I read just today about the US "accusing" Huawei of "evading" US sanctions by using local semiconductor manufacturing plants. Since Huawei has re-emerged as a leader in cellphone production its not surprising that they're sourcing parts from somewhere and -- unfortunately for the crew at Treasury's Department of Foreign Asset Control -- the only thing they're likely to tell the Americans is a very polite "FU".

    The eventual effect of all this is likely to see irreparable damage done to companies like ARM and Qualcomm. It won't happen overnight but the die is cast....its just a matter of time.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

      I'm not sure whether it is hubris, racial stereotyping or a lack of understanding of how technology develops that leads politicians to think that China will have trouble replacing the technology they are blocked from buying. Keeping China several generations behind the US only makes sense to someone that believes that everyone has to follow the same route as the innovators and won't just jump to the state of the art. Sanctions will only serve to reduce dependence on western tech rather than inhibiting progress. China won't give up working to acquire the technology any more than the US or the UK would.

      Send students to and sponsor research at western universities, attend conferences, read articles, reverse engineer and poach skilled people from the right tech companies.

      Oh, and having an advanced cyber-offensive program helps too.

      1. Jason Bloomberg Silver badge

        Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

        China won't give up working to acquire the technology any more than the US or the UK would.

        Some people really do seem to think, that if we deny China access to the things she wants, she will simply give up on her ambitions, accept it as her fate.

        It's supremacist thinking to imagine China could never get to where we are, have what we have, without us. It's wishful thinking to imagine we can keep China five years behind where we are. That's an over-stated advantage anyway, and laughable when China already has the lead in some fields.

        Trump's, and now Biden's, trade war has perhaps been the best thing which could have happened to China. Not so great for America. We'll have to see what comes of it for everyone else.

        I'm guessing we'll benefit from what China achieves, be busy trying to figure out how to survive the nuclear winter, or frantically trying to learn Chinese.

      2. MOV r0,r0

        Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

        "working to acquire the technology"

        Stealing.

        1. claimed Silver badge

          Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

          Ok. So what now. It’s been known to be happening (both sides, come on) and this was the best response the West could come up with?

          Unless we’re going to war over every minor infraction (no thanks), it’s just how life will go.

          So now what, sit back and expect to be paid for old secrets?

          I think this infinite growth and protectionism has a limited shelf life, and I don’t think there is any point complaining about IP theft. Keep moving.

        2. Avon B7

          Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

          One of the top patent filers in the US is, wait for it, Huawei.

          It's the same in the EU and worldwide.

          Their employees (half of whom are directly employed in R&D, engineering etc) are obviously cooking a lot of their own stuff and seeing as it is class leading in so many areas, it begs the question, who are they stealing from?

          I know Huawei isn't China but the numbers still hold up.

          1. bombastic bob Silver badge
            Megaphone

            Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

            It is highly likely that Huawei's innovation comes from Taiwan, not 'CCP China'

            I've worked with engineers from Taiwan. They are very much like the engineers I've worked with in the USA and UK as far as skill, competency, and quality go [from my experience anyway].

            Taiwan != China. It's the COMMUNISM that makes the difference, not so much who, or where, or who it is that is signing the checks.

            For now, at least, Taiwan is "safe"...

            1. VicMortimer Silver badge

              Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

              China is not communist, it's fascist.

              1. bombastic bob Silver badge
                Meh

                Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

                whichever, both bad and oppressive and citizens are NOT free to innovate without imminent threat. That was my point.

        3. martinusher Silver badge

          Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

          See:-

          https://www.theregister.com/2023/03/03/china_leads_tech_aspi/

        4. Ideasource

          Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

          Well the US steals technology too.

          That's how we got where we're at.

          Both sides make use of the same methodology of gathering technology anyway they can when it sits them

          So it's hardly stealing because demonstrated behavior by both countries show that it is common behavior and therefore any social definition of stealing is irrelevant.

          Intellectual property is a game of pretend played by threat of targeted suffering by law enforcement.

          It doesn't exist outside of that. It's just an idea someone came up with one day and Hoodwinked everyone else into going along with.

          So any concept of IP between two rival world powers that both have strong history and currency of gathering information "by hook or by crook"

          Is moot.

        5. Barking mad

          Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

          As I said "Oh, and having an advanced cyber-offensive program helps too."

      3. bombastic bob Silver badge
        Megaphone

        Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

        "I'm not sure whether it is hubris, racial stereotyping or a lack of understanding of how technology develops that leads politicians to think that China will have trouble replacing the technology they are blocked from buying."

        It's mostly HUBRIS.

        China is a country, not a race, and it is COMMUNISM that stifles innovation (it is VERY hard to innovate when thinking outside of the box hurts your social credit score or gets you 'disappeared' which makes it hard for a U.S. company doing OEM mfg from 'CCP China' to deal with the engineers in 'CCP China' when trying to get problems fixed - yes, I have had to deal with that - in ONE case they first DENIED a problem existed, then fixed it a DIFFERENT way than what was suggested as a quick stopgap, months later, without saying anything).

        But at least HALF of the politicians have NEVER INNOVATED. King Bidas, the doddering fool currently occupying the White House [for whom everything he touches turns to CRAP], has NEVER HAD A REAL JOB, particularly one where you have to make/build or design/invent things. Nor have his puppet masters, more than likely [lib-T think tank nor lefty college professor notwithstanding - plenty of THOSE kinds of people in Maryland, just north of D.C. - is NOT a REAL job].

        If there is an actual GOAL here, it is to create a superficial APPEARANCE of a paper tiger, targeted at those who cast ballots out of *FEEL* instead of intelligence, while making corrupt deals behind the scenes. *COUGH*HUNTER*COUGH*

        Really smart trade agreements should be made by those who understand business, NOT politics, and do not DIRECTLY PROFIT FROM THEM [through multiple shell companies as one example].

    2. Gene Cash Silver badge

      Re: Between morphng US regulations and RISC-V

      > irreparable damage done to companies like .... Qualcomm

      You say that like it's a bad thing.

  2. J.G.Harston Silver badge

    起名兒北走向房子

  3. PhilipN Silver badge

    For those who don't know...

    The Risk Factors section in a prospectus used to be about 2 pages. Now it is 20 and getting longer every year. It is the most incredibly boring part of the document whose drafting is therefore usually left to a junior or trainee lawyer who starts with the most recent version and is not able to think of anything beyond "what else can we throw in". The intent is NOT informative but to prevent anyone - especially the lawyers - from being sued by saying in effect "If you buy these shares you are mad".

  4. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    @MOV r0,r0

    Stealing? Yeah you are right. here is an example...

    https://www.history.com/news/industrial-revolution-spies-europe

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    If/when China moves on Taiwan - not necessarily an invasion, more likely likely a blockage of sorts - all western investments in China are going to be lost.

  6. Vader

    You can't stop any country from developing its own technology. If they are smart enough they will.

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