TSMC thinks it's got exactly what Taiwan needs – another multibillion-dollar chip plant TSMC confirmed on Tuesday that it is investing $2.87 billion in a chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) advanced packaging fab for AI chips in northern Taiwan. An application to lease land at the Tongluo Science Park in Miaoli County has been approved as the site of the facility, said the chipmaker. The plant will create …
From afar, the logic of investing billions whilst China glowers over the straits seems mad. But TSMC, whilst majority owned by overseas investors, has as its founding and effectively controlling investor the government of Taiwan (curious that it all started because Philips licensed their IP to them, but that's another story, another short sighted decision). The last thing Taiwan's government want is TSMC to abandon the country, so that's where research, flagship processes and IP will remain, and explains this decision.
The Taiwanese government are hoping that America's threats and promises will deter China, and we'll see how that pans out. Watching Ukraine the lesson is that sanctions are ineffectual, but that on a territory you can't fully control then your opponents can be easily resupplied with superior weapons. So for China, it is either give up grabbing your claim for the foreseeable future, or choose your moment and ensure that you seize the lot in one go. There's a good and short video on the military possibilities if you search on the terms CSIS next war, suffice to say it doesn't sound a good option for China or anybody else (and whilst you're there tale a look over other CSIS output - fabulous content for armchair generals and fans of geopolitics).
But China are good at the long game. Why invade and take all those risks when already one in eight Taiwanese support "reunification" and almost a third support it under ideal conditions? Just keep up the soft pressure, keep influencing the youth of Taiwan, and be ready to offer any assurances they need to (before reneging on them, as per Hong Kong). That's Pooh's style.
Our entire strategy is predicated on the Chinese being unable to develop and deploy appropriate technology. Since we've elevated the game to one of national security that's one bet that I'm not making --- we're spending all our efforts trying to stop China from doing what it was going to do anyway rather than being an effective competitor. All China has to do to win is to just keep on doing what its doing. Sanctions will slow things down a bit but all they really do is screw with the build/buy tradeoff -- what was once not economically feasible has now become a national survival issue.
Whoever cooked this lot up was seriously dumb, but then that's the problem with having an education system that churns out lawyers by the busload.
I think the economic, political and national security elements are all intertwined here and both the US+allies and China are playing a chess game that is becoming more and more intricate. The one waiting game that I think China can definitely play very effectively is to wait it out and see if another Trump-like administration comes in, in which case the chance of the US position unravelling becomes much more likely. Next year's Taiwan election may also result in a significant change. When you say "all China has to do to win", what do you mean by 'winning'? Because winning in the economy is pulling in a completely different direction to winning in terms of reunification with Taiwan.
Excellent comment but just not sure about this part - "Why invade and take all those risks when already one in eight Taiwanese support "reunification" and almost a third support it under ideal conditions?" - Support for reunification suffered a precipitous drop after the response to the HK protests and I can't see an upward trajectory - https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 . Also, if anything, after Pelosi and the blockade, I hear more and more about a 'wake-up call' for those who previously didn't care or supported reunification, so I'm curious where the "third support it under ideal conditions" comes from as 'ideal conditions' would need a LOT of clarification in the survey questionnaire these days to get a meaningful response. Also, if anything I've been hearing that the youth and under 35s of Taiwan are less likely to support reunification than other age groups.
Where its chip fabs are closing due to rising costs
20 years after Silicon Glen was shut down to offshore to China (and some chip-fab I guess to Taiwan/South Korea).
D’oh. Capitalism.
Same dumb shit as selling your soul and Germany becoming dependant on ‘ on cheap Russian Gas.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Glen
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