Re: Opening moves.
He'd lose support among many of the Chinese people if he did. Plenty of mainlanders have relatives in Taiwan.
And no leader can ignore deaths among their own military for very long. Putin found that out in the aborted coup when the military personnel in that border city were cheering the Wagner leader instead of defending against their occupation of the city, that's why he was forced to make peace and let him live. That makes him look weak, but he knows he can't count on automatic support from the military any longer.
That's why Ukraine has recently been talking about maximizing the hurt on Russian troops in Ukraine - they don't have to retake the territory just kill enough of them that Putin is forced to leave lest the military turn against him.
Xi isn't dumb. He's been watching the Ukraine debacle for lessons, and it all makes it less likely that he'll move on Taiwan in any overt way. He'll try to infiltrate the government from within, or at most do a blockade. No chance of Chinese troops landing on Taiwan's shores D Day style.