Re: The only role category to see earning fall was mid-level UX and UI designers
It is easy, relatively speaking.
Someone specialising in UI/UX was far more limited in what they could do 10-20 years ago than they are now.
There was a time where UI was mostly dominated by Frontpage / Dreamweaver people and it was far less granular...
Just look how far UX/UI has come in terms of websites.
I built my first site in 1995...and I've pretty much kept up with each change in the "meta" between then and now and we seem to be on course to go full circle.
This is a very rough outline of how things have moved, at least for me...I haven't put the years in, because I can't accurately remember specific years I jumped from one thing to the next...but earlier on, it was shorter time frames.
1. Monolithic, pure HTML. No real layout structure. Links at the top and bottom of each page. Hella static.
2. iFrames...menubar in the left iframe. Separate pages. Static.
3. IFrames with Tables. Separate pages. Whole page. Semi-dynamic. CGI. Fucking Java Applets.
4. Tables with CSS. Separate pages. Whole page. Dynamic server side. PHP. Flash is now a thing, but I don't use it.
5. Tables with CSS and JS. Separate pages. Whole page. Dynamic. Server side. PHP.
6. Divs and Spans with CSS and JS...UI frameworks begin (Bootstrap, Angular, React). Monolithic, pretty much one page. Mostly static, dynamic elements.
Even though as time goes on, the sites become more complicated, the route to getting there has become a lot less clunky, and inefficient...a rough overview of the "setup" at each stage as per my very rough memory...not complete, but you'll get the gist.
1. FTP client, Notepad. Basic folder structure, painstakingly coded by hand...slooooooooooooooooooow!
2. FTP client, Notepad. Maybe Frontpage / Dreamweaver with integrated FTP, WYSIWYG...slooooooooow!
2.2 Geocities bitch!
3. FTP client, Notepad. Maybe Frontpage / Dreamweaver with integrated FTP, WYSIWYG...fiddly CGI-BIN...sloooooooow and annoying.
4. Seamless SFTP mount, Netbeans (or equivalent) or just Notepad (or Linux equivalent)...much faster to iterate. Data in flat files.
5. SVN, Netbeans (or equivalent) or just Notepad (or Linux equivalent)....much faster, data now in a database...bit more fiddly.
6. Git, Sublime / Atom / VSCode or Nano...tools like Bootstrap Studio for semi-WYSIWYG...themeforest exists, no need to design a UI from scratch when you can buy one that is almost there for peanuts then adjust it....
...and now, time required to get a decent finished result then the work required by the "UI" guy...
1. A month for a good sized site. Plus hours of regular work to keep the site "updated" and adapted to new content (major UI changes here and there, browser wars). Upload, test, repeat methodology.
2. A few weeks, plus, hours of regular, but less so, work to keep the site "updated" and adapted to new content (minor UI changes here and there). Upload, test, repeat methodology.
2.2 Sign my guestbook. Hit counters!
3. Two weeks. Update frequency is still high, but each update requires less time and UI tweaks becoming less common.
4. Under two weeks. UI tweaks even less common.
5. Less than a week. Some updates automated, user generated content. Less time spent updating. UI tweaks a few times a year.
6. A couple of hours. Buy a template, edit it and extend it, drop in the dynamic components...dedicated UI guy largely irrelevant.
We have essentially gone from UI being the bulk of the work, to being something you can quite easily pick up pretty much ready done for less than £50.
That's not to say that UI isn't important, it is, but it's become something that doesn't necessarily require loads of dedicated folks.
Some of the fancier web teams out there might have a dedicated UI person or two, but your typical web shop doesn't.
I think this is mostly because most of what a UI person would have done in the past has been split up and assigned to different people. Content management for example, Dorothy on reception can now do the blog updates etc via a nice web ui, that looks exactly like 100s of other webuis...so the front end guy no longer gets involved in content.
Content has also become dynamic, so there are less UI tweaks need to be made on the fly, developer has that locked down.
Essentially, once a site is up and running...that's it. The UI guy doesn't have a lot to do. Because these days, you can't make dramatic changes on a production site with high volumes of traffic without pissing people off.
In the first 10 years of the web, things moved at breakneck pace...new, whacky shit was happening all the time...because it could, not many businesses relied on the web for business...today, many businesses live and die on the internet...and making changes too frequently can have a massive knock on effect with your customer base. Businesses are less inclined to rock the boat as it were.
The golden age for UI/UX guys was around 2005-2015...the ride is slowing down...and as UI frameworks get easier to use and more homogenised and standardised, UI/UX specialists will become relatively niche.
Personally, as a developer / infrastructure guy...I've always liked having a UI/UX guy to shit on and divert attention to. You're the unsung heroic punching bags of software development that allowed developers to get a breather every now and then while you argued about the company fonts, logo usage guidelines and endless meetings about "story telling", "wire framing" and "user journeys"...but I think the sun is setting on those days...at least for permanent in house roles...you'll always exist as consultants / freelancers...and you'll be all the better for it. <3