We regret to inform you Earth will not be destroyed by an asteroid within 1,000 years War, genocide, TikTok – if it could all end today, some of us would die with a smile on our face knowing there was little about humanity worth preserving. However, we have bad news for the misanthropes out there: the cosmic mote of dirt we call home is safe from planet-killing asteroids for the next thousand years or so. This …
These are Near Earth Objects, i.e. the ones we can track easily. But we get lots of stuff coming down from the Oort cloud as comets on a regular basis. I guess though that the big ones will get spotted far enough out to be able to do the Bruce Willis thing.
@Yet Another Anonymous coward
Indeed "known is the issue"
There is new "random stuff" appearing..
Occasionally we get new lumps of rock, Oumuamua recently generated a lot of attention for likely being extra solar, but plenty of rocks can be nudged out of place (Jupiter is a pain for perturbing rocks in the main asteroid belt, though on plus side it does Hoover up* a lot of incoming rocks due to its hefty gravitational influence so pros & cons) & nobody really knows much about Oort cloud dynamics and how often asteroids are likely to be ejected.
* yes Hoover, I'm using your trademarked word in a generic (metaphorical) vacuuming up sense, face facts: "Hoover" is a generic word now and your TM is pointless in real world language use.
> track KNOWN asteroid paths about 100 years into the future
And that's because uncertainty (tiny little rounding errors) gradually increases, till at some point it becomes pointless to calculate any further, you could as well roll some dice.
So I don't know where they got their "reliable 1000 years precision" from, especially if they only focused on a tiny portion of the orbit (hint: Stuff which influence an orbit can happen at any point of it...).
My assessment: Quite brazen headlines-hunting...
Well, this is the most depressing article I've read today (so far). Instead of harping on what we can't do, how about on what we can? As in, asteroid mining becoming routine in 100 years, by which point this level of Chicken Little-ism will seem quaint at best. P.S. If you think humanity is short-sighted and self-indulgent to the point of apocalyptic destruction... umm, I'd be hard-pressed to argue, if the story of Noah is to be believed... but spend some time hanging around people who work at food banks and other charities. Folks who do so are legit, and there are a lot of us.
@ArtoriosRex
Indeed, plenty of decent folks around.
Unfortunately, if you look at the small number of politicos in charge in most countries, sensible decent people seem in the minority, but lying, sociopathic, greedy, short termist narcissists are found in worryingly high numbers. The people least likely to make good decisions for the benefit of humanity as a whole are massively overrepresented in the political classes...Foodbank volunteers are not running many countries.
Your link to the specific picture doesn't work, but the whole page is quite interesting to read for those not familiar with the subject, and who still reason Hollywood-style (i.e. "we ask 'The Computer' ("Danger, Will Robinson!"), and get a certified 100% exact result about anything, anywhere, anytime"):
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