Only a tiny, tiny fraction of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge nodes.
SIA wrote to the White House a few years ago warning that US interests would be impaired by restrictions on China. The Pentagon even stepped in on one occasion to delay a Trump Executive order on restrictions.
The Hawks won out in the end and as a result, billions were lost in revenues from Chinese companies. 11 billion from Huawei alone in one year. Those were revenues that would have formed part of future R&D efforts from US companies.
Now, the boot is firmly on the other foot. Chinese companies (and many western companies) are 'de-Americanising' their production lines and technologies to free them from the long arm of US extraterritorial (and unilateral) sanctions. For every ban, a non-US alternative is being sought. Huawei has made huge advances over the last three years.
New competitors to US interests are spawning at an accelerated rate. Where US companies once enjoyed monopolies, new competitors are arriving. Very little of those 11 billion dollars from Huawei would ever go back to US companies if sanctions were lifted. The genie is out of the bottle. Money is being ploughed into non-US interests.
Huawei is looking at RISC-V, chiplets and chip stacking and has made several breakthroughs already. Some confirmed and others rumoured. The chipstacking breakthrough will very probably lead to non-cutting edge fabrication of very competitive chips at far lower prices. Just a little less bang for far less buck. That could have serious repercussions on the market. Corning glass was replaced by Kunlun etc.
That the US wanted to have its cake and eat it isn't a surprise. That they totally screwed up at getting there is no surprise either.
No matter what the predictions were on how long it would take China to catch up in certain areas, the best guess now would be to halve them.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
