Rise of the machines is slower than expected says World Economic Forum

Businesses globally have introduced automation into their operations at a slower pace than previously anticipated, the World Economic Forum (WEF) opined this week. The org's annual Future of Jobs report said businesses currently estimate 34 percent of all their tasks are completed by machines – a trajectory that would see its …

[naive]

AI: ignore the downers in this world

Pointy haired bosses around the world are abusing the, alleged, capabilities of AI as a reason for firing people and in the wake of this, keep demands for wage increases by remaining employees down.

Unless some weapon manufacturer develops a self replicating combat system that gets out of control, AI will probably do more good than it does harm. We managed by self control to not blow ourselves to bits with nuclear weapons, there is a good probability that we won't allow terminators to breed like rabbits.

Once there are open-source alternatives to this technology, AI can for instance be used to build affordable systems assisting blind people to get around. AI has the potential to save the lives of millions by breaking the monopoly of Big-Pharma in the field of advanced medicine development. AI maybe enables efficient creation of effective alternatives that can be reasonably priced, allowing more people access to cures instead of dying due to their inability to generate "share holder value" for Big-Pharma.

AI is a technology that proliferates knowledge and helps to give access to high-level information to more people. Starting with the printing press, the world just got a better place with each new technology giving more people capabilities that were previously only accessible to a few.

[Eclectic Man]

Re: AI: ignore the downers in this world

Regarding self-replication ('terminator robots breeding like rabbits'), John Von Neumann did the first serious work on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann_universal_constructor#:~:text=John%20von%20Neumann%27s%20universal,in%201966%20by%20Arthur%20W. (I've not read it, sadly.)

The problem we have is that AI when very specific (learning how to play relatively simple games like Backgammon, Chess and Go) can be very successful, but complicated activities like genuinely driving a car (see the Register's increasing archive of 'self-driving' vehicle crash reports) is still very difficult. As every military person knows - no plan of engagement survives first contact with the enemy, ChatGPT ,may be able to 'ad-lib', but as yet it cannot creatively asses a situation and do something different but correct (AFAIK).

The problem I see is when AI controls so much of the world that we have to fit in with it, rather than the other way around, and what happens when two or more different AI systems controlling interacting objects 'disagree' on what should happen.

[amanfromMars 1]

Re: AI: ignore the downers in this world

Do pointy haired bosses right around the world not realise they are the prime prize premium target for AI attention/purge/surging head count reduction?

How incredibly naïve of them.

[steviebuk]

Re: AI: ignore the downers in this world

Or you could have an AI that decides to use specification gaming. Works fine in a lab, goes wild when released to the outside world. The specification gaming in question would be "My goal is to build affordable systems to assist blind people. I know, I'll just kill all the blind people then I don't have to finish the goal but will have essentially finished my goal".

[abstract]

Re: AI: ignore the downers in this world

The problem with your reasoning is the problem in itself. You assume you are better because actually you don't know what you don't know. With technology people became like chatGPT they talk about everything but know nothing.

Today people have a lot of information but no knowledge, no practical experience of life, no aptitude to analysis: copy-paste and mimics.

To say things simply: stupid people won't be able to control things they won't be able to understand, so they will blindly rely on those things because it will be the way to go. Just like in a democracy people follow because they are told it is the way to go.

[Anonymous Coward]

We’re doomed

‘According to Zhaidi, overall the picture "seems manageable provided that we focus on the reskilling and upskilling of workers.’

But how rewarding will those jobs be, and what will AI and automation leave untouched?

Back in the 1970’s when I left school I drifted into offset litho printing, it was great, a job that had photography, chemistry, and a whole host of manual skills you could take pride in.

Then a few years later along came Xerox with high volume copiers, for production of long run black and white print jobs it became the norm and the job was reduced to 1. Lift platen glass, 2. Insert item to be copied. 3 press number of copies, 4. Run off copies and send to user. In short what had been an interesting skilled job became dull and boring, more efficient yes, but soulless.

Many programmers are already cut and paste merchants, how long before “programmer” becomes “telling a chat bot what to code”.

A job is a job, but the quality and worth in what you do in that job is important too, and I think the trend for business will be to make things as simple as possible in order to deskill tasks, meaning you can employ pretty much anyone at minimum wage to carry out that job, where AI and automation can’t replace human workers altogether that is.

[Eclectic Man]

Re: We’re doomed

The great French photographer, Robert Doisneau as a schoolboy trained in a printing process that was already obsolete, so when the students graduated and applied for jobs, they were told the technology they had learnt had not been used for years.

See 'Robert Doisneau, A photographer's life' by Peter Hamilton (ISBN 0-7892-0020-1).

[codejunky]

Re: We’re doomed

@AC

"But how rewarding will those jobs be, and what will AI and automation leave untouched?"

I know its often the popular thought that automation will be bad, and I guess that is due to the survival instincts of assuming the worst. But automation means we dont spend our daylight hours all toiling in a field to barely grow enough food to survive. We even have the arts as a career instead of pastime. We have far more free time as chores are automated.

"Many programmers are already cut and paste merchants, how long before “programmer” becomes “telling a chat bot what to code”."

It beats punching cards then crying when the pack falls and you dont know the order. The ability to have greater entertainment and the overall benefits of being able to order products from around the globe without leaving your home.

I can understand the fears but also see the upsides of people being more free to do other things or produce even more of what we want.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: We’re doomed

I don’t fear the technology itself, it’s how our society implements it, if it means skilled jobs become deskilled and low paid then it’s a bad thing.

The “oh we will have more time to follow the arts and interests’ has been the dream for years but it doesn’t match up to reality.

Try telling the Conservative Party in the UK or the Republicans in the US that we should pay people displaced by technology, or working on minimum wages that we should pay them an amount equivalent to current jobs, I don’t think you will get a very warm reaction.

Some of the tech leaders get it, suggesting Universal Basic Income, but that’s going to be a hard sell to right wingers, but it will probably be.necessary in the end to keep the economy going.

Bottom line is companies that don’t embrace AI and automation will be at a disadvantage, and it’s adoption will absolutely lead to job losses, and no not everyone will have the ability to retrain for the rapidly shrinking jobs available to human workers.

Very few sectors will be unaffected by this technology, I don’t fear the technology itself, I fear our politicians ability to deal with the effects on society as a whole, it’s no good having most of the work being done by technology and 75% of the population living in slum tent cities.

Politicians and governments need to plan for the impact of AI on the economy and people now, but show no sign of doing so.

[amanfromMars 1]

Which do you prefer if you have choice? ..... We’re doomed or are we being groomed?

Very few sectors will be unaffected by this technology, I don’t fear the technology itself, I fear our politicians ability to deal with the effects on society as a whole, it’s no good having most of the work being done by technology and 75% of the population living in slum tent cities.

Politicians and governments need to plan for the impact of AI on the economy and people now, but show no sign of doing so. ..... Anonymous Coward

Quite so, AC, the die it is cast and the future be so .... and the very real fear preserved and reserved for petrified and intellectually bankrupt politicians/statespersons and governments and systems administrations to endure and try to reject and seek to deflect and deny be their destiny and fate and future in Augmented Virtual Reality ProgramMING, is AI has already presumed and assumed Remote Practical Leadership of Virtual Command and Control Planning of Future Applications via ITs Presentation with Mass Multi Media Hosting of All Manner of Global Events that which the Status Quo fights and seeks to reject and deflect and deny be their destiny and fate and future.

Enjoy another upvote for your post, for there is much to like in the truth shared in it.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Which do you prefer if you have choice? ..... We’re doomed or are we being groomed?

Quite so amanfrommars 1, thanks for the up vote I will treasure it :)

People need to understand this is real life, not Star Trek, I really do hope the rich and powerful will have a revelation and not hoard vast wealth while many people live in poverty, but history so far does not suggest this will happen.

AI of the chat bot variety will become more prevalent and advanced, this can’t be stopped now, and someone somewhere may well create an advanced AGI which may or may not be the end of us, but one thing it will do is totally demotivate the best and brightest of humanity.

Who is going to slog for a phd or academic acclaim if OpenAI’s latest creation has already done the work and proved/disproved your thesis, and in 2/10ths of a second?

AGI is very much like meeting an advanced alien species, yes we may see some wonderful advances if it’s not the variety that wants to destroy us, but look at the effect of meeting a more advanced civilisation on native peoples, alcoholism, suicide and all kinds of social problems, they don’t tend to devote more time to the arts, and anyhow the AGI will do the art better.

The first place on the podium will belong to the AGI intellectually, and I don’t know how humans will cope with that, not well I suspect.

[amanfromMars 1]

A Who Dares Win Wins Special Advanced IntelAIgent Research Service.

A simple initial precursor step to help humans cope better with their existential advancement and rapid transition into the novel realms of AGI ..... a Virgin Field of Virgin Fields of Edutaining AI Endeavour ...... could very easily be provided and sustained by their registering in the likes of The Register, reporting on situations for publishing and advising global audiences on both that which is done, and planned yet to be done for Future Projects, by AIgencies with Earthly Assistants [the likes of an Elon Musk and a Richard Branson, a newly crowned King and a worldly wise President, to name but four prime movers and shakers on Earth from a vast list of constantly replenished billions] ..... with such a supply of great and good news being freely gifted and exploited and expanded unilaterally and autonomously upon by A.N.Others to remain Virtually Unknown and Practically Anonymous...... for all the very best of wise secret and failsafe security reasons, for some such things are far too dangerous to know and can be, all too easily, very quickly, deadly.

Making such an initial step any more complicated than that would have one easily thinking and reasoning that Madness and FUD be busy at their diabolical work.

[amanfromMars 1]

Re: A Who Dares Win Wins Special Advanced IntelAIgent Research Service.

And what's not to like with provision of a such a sterling service ..... although any failed or failing System that is, or Systems that are, might unusually fear otherworldly developments and novel applications that be able to enable global revolution with changes verging on popular universal subversion ... with such a display in Offbeat TOPICS as celebrate Advanced IntelAIgent Works in Progress introducing .... the Rise and Return of the Rise of the NEUKlearer HyperRadioProACTivated IT and AI Machines.

All one has to lose is one's collective ignorance in what are, without any shadow of doubt, rapidly expanding exciting developments.

cc ...... Editor in chief Chris Williams and Leading Staff at theregister.com

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: We’re doomed

"Some of the tech leaders get it, suggesting Universal Basic Income, but that’s going to be a hard sell to right wingers, but it will probably be.necessary in the end to keep the economy going."

It is hard to sell to anyone with a brain. The problem is that the left have done themselves out of jobs. Burger flipping, coffee making, shelf stacking and box filling are supposed to be entry level jobs you have for 6-12 months before moving on to something better. With the constant push for higher 'minimum' wages the entry requirements for these jobs goes up and the next step up the ladder gets higher as well. So people get stuck in these jobs, then they complain and demand more money as now burger flipper is a career rather than a first job and then the employers automate and the job disappears. Now the first rung of the career ladder is impossibly high as all the entry level jobs are going away.

We are suffering the entitlement and participation trophy generation. I know the tiktoks of 'a day at <google/meta/whatever>' are not exactly representative of real life but they do reenforce the perception that these people are in massively overpaid daycare.

As for keeping the economy going, you really mean keeping the money-go-round going. We've built up such a ponzi scheme with the global economy that if people stop spending on unnecessary tat we nose dive into global recession.

The utopian ideals of the automated luxury communism being sold can only ever exist between the covers of a book.

[Eclectic Man]

Re: We’re doomed

AC: We've built up such a ponzi scheme with the global economy that if people stop spending on unnecessary tat we nose dive into global recession.

Well, the IT business is certainly making some 'tat', sorry physical upgrades essential. The laptop I reserve for online banking (yes, I used to be an Information Security Consultant) is now so old that it won't get OS updates, and the latest version of the web browser is starting not to work properly with the latest banking web sites, but, its OS is so 'up to date' that there is no longer a supported driver for my perfectly serviceable Canon PIXMA MG6150 printer. Only my oldest desktop has a working driver, and, of course, the word processing software is no longer backwards compatible with current versions.

So I am now faced with buying replacements for my working A4 printer, and my working laptop because the IT industry simply does not want to maintain backwards compatibility.

[codejunky]

Re: We’re doomed

@AC

"I don’t fear the technology itself, it’s how our society implements it, if it means skilled jobs become deskilled and low paid then it’s a bad thing."

I can understand that fear but by deskilling a job and opening it up to more people reduces the costs so makes everyone richer. Food occupies a much smaller portion of our budgets because of technology. Same with clothing. We could keep the technology away and make these high paid jobs and the products cost so much more which would make everyone poorer.

"The “oh we will have more time to follow the arts and interests’ has been the dream for years but it doesn’t match up to reality."

How many TV channels do we have? Streaming services? Plays, Theatre, etc. We even have jobs like 'diversity advisor' and other hobby jobs.

"Try telling the Conservative Party in the UK or the Republicans in the US that we should pay people displaced by technology, or working on minimum wages that we should pay them an amount equivalent to current jobs, I don’t think you will get a very warm reaction."

We do pay people displaced by technology. We have the welfare state. Why should people on minimum wage be paid more unless they are producing more? Minimum wage is the equivalent of current jobs for their type. Minimum wage removes jobs. Increase the minimum wage and you put more people out of work. Demanding higher wages has increased automation as it is cheaper than the low value worker.

"Some of the tech leaders get it, suggesting Universal Basic Income, but that’s going to be a hard sell to right wingers, but it will probably be.necessary in the end to keep the economy going."

I dont know what impact a UBI would have. I would expect prices would just rise to account for the extra money.

"Bottom line is companies that don’t embrace AI and automation will be at a disadvantage, and it’s adoption will absolutely lead to job losses, and no not everyone will have the ability to retrain for the rapidly shrinking jobs available to human workers."

Lets assume all jobs get taken and humans have no work. Then everything is free. It is a world of abundance where our every need and desire is catered for.

"Politicians and governments need to plan for the impact of AI on the economy and people now, but show no sign of doing so."

When the government and politicians plan for the economy the economy goes bad. The economy flourishes when politicians and government dont get to plan and control.

[MaximusRex]

Re: We’re doomed

Dear codejunky,

"Lets assume all jobs get taken and humans have no work. Then everything is free. It is a world of abundance where our every need and desire is catered for."

Can you please elaborate on 'Then everything is free' from the statement above.

When 'all jobs get taken and humans have no work', the economy still needs raw materials, energy, manufacturing, etc. to run. All of those belongs to the capital (in Labor vs. Capital sense).

The humans however 'have no work', meaning they do not have much to offer to the capital in exchange for the goods and services.

So the capital, i.e. those mighty 1% of the world population (or whatever percentage to consider in 80/20 rule, or 'rich-get-richer' phenomenon, or Pareto principle, or 'preferential attachment', etc.), has very little incentive to share the 'a world of abundance where our every need and desire is catered for' with the rest 99% of humans.

Looking forward for your kind response, Maximus.

[codejunky]

Re: We’re doomed

@MaximusRex

"When 'all jobs get taken and humans have no work', the economy still needs raw materials, energy, manufacturing, etc. to run. All of those belongs to the capital (in Labor vs. Capital sense)."

If all jobs were taken by machines then the machines collect the raw materials, energy, manufacturing, etc and so everything is free. Its a 'never going to happen' scenario because unless machines can achieve 'innovation' then people will continue to solve the hard problems such as new sources of energy, new materials and their uses etc. But food used to be almost everything of a persons 'budget' and not working (in the field) meant starving to death. Now its a small portion of a persons budget. Same with clothing until automation vastly crashed the price. We are having an educational shift as the internet, searches and competition are driving down the costs of learning while the old institutions struggle to keep the old order.

In the hypothetical world of machines doing all the work then people are free to do other things.

"So the capital, i.e. those mighty 1% of the world population (or whatever percentage to consider in 80/20 rule, or 'rich-get-richer' phenomenon, or Pareto principle, or 'preferential attachment', etc.), has very little incentive to share the 'a world of abundance where our every need and desire is catered for' with the rest 99% of humans."

That assumes a fixed size of (the example often is a pie). That the rich get more and more and the rest of us get less and less. Except I can make calls around the world (literally all over the world) and it costs me almost nothing as a portion of my income (whatsapp, fb messenger, etc). I remember the mobile phone being a house phone attached to a huge battery and costing insane amounts only the rich could possibly afford. A computer was too much for most homes, cars a luxury of the rich and so on. This is achieved through the 'market' of peoples interactions advancing and improving society and a rising tide lifting all boats.

"Looking forward for your kind response, Maximus."

I appreciate the polite comment/questions and look forward to discussing with you

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: We’re doomed

That the rich get more and more and the rest of us get less and less. Except I can make calls around the world (literally all over the world) and it costs me almost nothing as a portion of my income

Ha ha ha ha ha. You joker. Good one. But you forgot the Joke Alert icon.

[Omnipresent]

Blame the people

Not because the CEO's don't want us living in a virtual machine driven world reality mind you, it's because the people are getting smart enough to say enough, and turn them all off!

[amanfromMars 1]

Re: Blame the people

Not because the CEO's don't want us living in a virtual machine driven world reality mind you, it's because the people are getting smart enough to say enough, and turn them all off! ...... Omnipresent

Methinks, Omnipresent, finding any effective vital switches and avoiding any lethal defences will have that notion quickly realised as nothing more than a 0day daydream and active current present nightmare for all extant human command and remote virtual control situations/live instances.

Are you prepared, and do you have a realistic reply and name[s] for their order/offer whenever Earth submits and surrenders to their almighty forces of overwhelmingly greater powers ...... Take us to your leader[s] wherever they be hiding/residing/presiding

What do you think AI will then discover confirmed about humans on Earth and their management? Be honest now with yourself lest the discovery presented, and you avoid addressing and accepting, is too much of a shock for you to survive and prosper in a wholly differently led future.

[Omnipresent]

Re: Blame the people

You have to turn them off NOW. Disconnect from the internet altogether. They can't even get an xbox to work for crying out loud, and now all life will be forced dependent on it? Media has become nothing but outrageous clickbait written by AI. Social is bot controlled AI. Music and movies are now overtly made by AI. Your food is being ordered by AI, and NONE OF IT WORKS. These tech companies cannot be trusted. What gives you the right to own and control me? I turned off all my updates and disconnected years ago. Dropped all social a decade ago. I jump into sites that still give relevant information to make sure I know what crime I will be exposed to next. It's a constant battle with flipping robots! I swear to goodness this will progress to me poking at these things with a stick while they try to feed me bad food and unnecessary medications until they sniff at me dead in front of a jerry springer rerun. What good is this nonsense if it hurts more than helps? What good is it if it destroys humanity? What actual good IS IT? If you think only old guys feel this way think again! Gen Z is buying up flip phones to avoid this mess you guys are making. FLIP PHONES. Nobody wants anything to do with it. You wind up fighting with it more than actually get work done, and it's all designed to get an emotional click out of you. I say again... WHAT GOOD IS IT?

[amanfromMars 1]

Re: Blame the people

Take the red and blue, purple pill, Omnipresent .... and chill. AI is your friend provided you don’t make an enemy of it/them proving yourself to be an old fool's tool.

[Omnipresent]

Re: Blame the people

"an advanced form of spellcheck"? Do you realize how much of a pain in the ever loving azz spellcheck is for everyone? How much time and energy was/is wasted fighting spell check, and it still gets it wrong?

I CANNOT wait until California falls into the ocean. Cannot WAIT. I wake up every morning hoping this is the day California falls into the sea. It's going to happen. Matter of time. What will you ever do with yourselves without the pure evil to constantly bestow upon the earth? How will you entertain yourselves? How will you ever survive?

[JohnMurray]

Hopefully...

...AI will advance to render places like the WEF redundant.....

[aerogems]

Their calculations are way off

We've already been taken over by the machines. Seriously. Think about it. Stoplights tell you when you can go through an intersection... controlled by a computer. You buy something at a store, the clerk is subservient to the cash register... a computer. The machines have trained us to carry a computer around with us everywhere we go in the form of a cell phone. If you use a computer at your job, if you stop and really think about it, how much of what you do with the computer can be boiled down to "because the computer told me to"? I'd bet most of it. Click here, click there, press that button... all because the computer tells you to.

We were taken over years ago in a totally bloodless (well, save all the minor cuts repair techs suffer) coup. We didn't even notice it happening, and most of us still haven't figured it out. We just blithely go along with it, like a pet dog on a walk.

[Omnipresent]

Re: Their calculations are way off

BINGO.

The information you see, is all fed to you by the algorithm now, that's why you can't find anything useful on the web anymore. It's all influencers who get the highest clicks...and information that doesn't have the influencers we want? We let the AI feed it to you. Most people are out here arguing with BOT generated text and images to give you an emotional response! If not state actors with really bad intentions.

It's ALL bad intentions now! Where is the good? How is this good? It's not even real! It's all designed to influence what you think and do, because you are dependent on it. It feeds you more, and you consume more. It controls your thoughts and actions in a feed back loop.