back to article Today's old folks set to smash through longevity records

Boffins working on a mathematical model to predict future human lifespans say that longevity records may be broken by 2060 – and the sky's the limit from there. They don't think we've even approached the ceiling of how long a well cared-for human can live.  Those born between 1910 and 1950 – the next cohort to reach "advanced …

  1. Paul Crawford Silver badge

    Living a long is only appealing if it is free of the problems of old age, just ask Tithonus :(

    1. jmch Silver badge

      Very apt as a lot of modern medicine is focused on simply keeping people alive, without too much care about their wellbeing

      1. b0llchit Silver badge

        Modern medicine is focused on not letting one die and not allowing people to die. Its extent depends highly on local, cultural, social and legal traditions. But death has become taboo in many "western" type societies. Many have laws that result in a rule that "forbid" you to die, regardless well being. Another situation is when family cannot "cope" with death and don't allow you to die.

        We have outsourced caring for the elderly, putting them in homes for old people. We do no longer experience the problems associated with old age because we have sent the old ones to homes.

        1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

          It is an interesting question to ask what modern medicine is focused on. My experience is that it is on educating individuals about what their requests for limits of treatment actually mean. Unfortunately most people only have that conversation when they or their loved one is in extremis.

          One could argue that if you become old enough to need a retirement home, modern medicine has already done for you everything it possibly can. Once you're in need of that kind of support, the best resuscitative and critical care medicine is, at best, life prolonging at the cost of dependency for even the most basic activities of daily living. Most people who know the statistics on dependency post-resuscitation and post-intensive care would ask not to be resuscitated after about the age of 50.

          As stated in the original article, the big leaps in quality of life survival come from public health. Two signal failures in the US are their public health approaches to diseases of affluence and the pandemic.

          Modern medicine will do what is asked of it by society, including education and health promotion. Overcoming society's hangups about freedoms and ethical inhibitions is society's job.

        2. Montreal Sean

          I am so glad that my younger brother had a medical team that was focused on my brother's well being when he got cancer.

          They treated him with chemotherapy as he had a faitly straight forward lymphoma. He responded really well.

          Until he started having problems walking and they discovered a second cancer had appeared in his spinal fluid and brain. Unfortunately he didn't respond to the new chemo and the cancer was paralyzing him slowly as it moved from the feet upwards.

          The doctors were very honest with me, him, and his wife. They said they could continue the chemo and hope it eventually works, or make him comfortable for his final weeks.

          He chose to be made comfortable and was able to see and talk to family and friends in his hospital room right up until he died a week later.

          He was holding his wife's hand when he slipped away.

          I will always be grateful he had such a great team looking after him.

          A team who card more about him than about stats.

      2. fuzzie

        That's why a lot of research is refocusing on what they call "Healthspan", not "Lifespan", i.e. extending the period of healthy life. Several surveys have confirmed that people aren't too fussed specially with living (much) longer, but they'd rather be healthier, active and alert during the time they do have,

        So researchers surmised that keeping people alive when they're in bad health, suffering, immobile or dependent on others for daily functioning, is counter productive or even "torture".

        It's better to work towards improving quality of life. A side-effect might well be that whatever we do to remain healthy and alert, also feeds into us living longer. Bonus.

        All this also up-ends a lot of social contracts around age of retirement. We're close to where our "retired" life time matches our economic productive life time. There's only so much compound interest can do to build retirement/pension funds.

        1. Helcat Silver badge

          My Godmother developed cancer. The Docs offered her chemo to extend her life. When she asked about the quality of life, they got rather nervous, then admitted it wouldn't be all that great.

          So she refused the treatment, which would have added three or four years to her life (estimated). Instead she carried on volunteering with the community work she volunteered for, and was teaching arts at college for evening classes, and generally enjoying her final years.

          She'd been at the local Church Hall helping set up for an event. Walked out the door, had a heart attack, was gone in moments. Active right to the end, helping people and the community. And they wanted to put her on chemo for her cancer and take all that away from her? She was nearly Ninety when she died.

          Shows that medical treatment isn't always worth the effort. Much better to live a good life, have fun, and slide into the grave with a drink in one hand and a party popper in the other yelling 'here we go!'

          1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            That's terrible. She didn't survive for 5years after diagnosis and so completely screwed the hospital trust's performance metrics.

            If you are the former colonies it will also have cost the doctor/hospital a couple of Mercedes in lost treatment costs

            1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

              Not all the former colonies are so tolerant of for-profit medicine.

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Name one! We just can't actually afford to keep as many specialists and administrators in the style to which they would like to become accustomed, as the US can.

        2. Stork

          Arguably the health span has also risen.

          I know it is anecdotal, but try to compare the life and activities of someone in their 70es or 80es today with their parents generation. My mum is mid 80es and in my grandmothers' generation that was positively ancient, my mum & friends don't seem to have discovered yet.

      3. AVR Bronze badge

        Because that's something you can measure, and medicine has had problems with false claims made on the basis of unmeasurable things. Also aiming for keeping people alive as long as possible often (not always) has a side effect of keeping them well - the newer chemotherapy drugs used when my cancer came back for a second go were more effective (the cancer went away faster and hasn't yet come back again) and had less unpleasant side effects than those used the first time.

  2. lglethal Silver badge
    Pint

    Sshhhhh!!!!!

    Don't tell the Politicians about this study! They'll take it as yet another excuse to raise the retirement age!

    (Beer icon, because just the thought of how many more years I still have to work, has me reaching for a glass....)

    1. GlenP Silver badge

      Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

      In the UK the latest review has ruled out bringing the rise from 67 to 68 forwards as life expectancy seems to have plateaued. Not that the suggested change would have mattered to me as I'll (hopefully) be retired before then.

      1. werdsmith Silver badge

        Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

        Statins, ace inhibitors, beta blockers and the like all handed out for free by the NHS have driven down mortality from some causes but led to an increase in other debilitating illnesses as more people live on past where they might otherwise have reached.

      2. Fred Dibnah

        Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

        So the neoliberal paradises of the USA & UK have static or falling life expectancy, whilst in the socialist paradises of Western Europe (ex UK) it continues to rise. I wonder why that is?

        1. RPF

          Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

          Diet and lifestyle.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

            Oh, you reminded me, it's Tuesday - time to ride my 3 speed bike bike down to Lenils-r-Us with my ration card for the weeks dose of health 'n happiness.

          2. Ken G Silver badge
            Pint

            Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

            Yes, I read that Ireland has the highest life expectancy in the EU, according to The Health in Ireland: Key Trends 2022 report by the Department of Health.

            Having a big fry up as soakage really helps.

            1. Bebu

              Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

              "Yes, I read that Ireland has the highest life expectancy in the EU, according to The Health in Ireland: Key Trends 2022 report by the Department of Health. Having a big fry up as soakage really helps."

              I imagine a pint of Guiness could lift paint so atherosclerotic plaque would be a doddle. :)

              I suspect those nations with a fairly broad easy going sense of humour fair better in these league tables. The hanging offense of the wokery is its singular lack of anything resembling a sense of humour--positively unhuman IMHO.

              The Irish custom of having a wake with the guest of honour in the room would help normalize death. The comedian Dave Allen had a story incidentally involved the deceased being taken to the pub by his cronies one last time...

              No great surprise then that the life expectancy of the denizens of the superpower is going backwards - a society of humorless death denyers (bugrit - deniers are for women's hosiery.)

        2. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

          >So the neoliberal paradises of the USA & UK have static or falling life expectancy whilst in the socialist paradises of Western Europe (ex UK) it continues to rise. I wonder why that is?

          You have to be a little careful about statistics. My city has about the highest life expectancy on the continent - it also has the highest S.E. Asian population, moving here from NY doesn't suddenly make you live to 100, unless you also become a Japanese grandmother.

          And overall life expectancy is heavily weighted by childhood mortality, rules on how a still birth is counted, or at what date a miscarriage counts as a still birth have a big effect, It's going to interesting if certain states start counting all miscarriages as deaths with an age of -0.75

          But mostly diet and lifestyle, although remember it's what diet and lifestyle was when those old people were young. Today's fat teenagers don't affect today's life expectancy. A lot of the reason for the USA/UK's health being crap is that they were crap 30-40 years ago, when a lot of Europe was less crap. Don't expect today's French / Italian teenagers to have the same diet/lifestyle as their grandparents.

        3. veti Silver badge

          Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

          Why are you lumping the UK in with the USA? The article specifically calls out the US as an exception, but not the UK.

          In fact, life expectancy in the UK has continued to rise, even through the pandemic. Source.

          1. Fred Dibnah

            Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

            Life expectancy from birth has fallen slightly in recent years for men, and is static for women. Another source:

            https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020

            “Life expectancy at birth in the UK in 2018 to 2020 was 79.0 years for males and 82.9 years for females; this represents a fall of 7.0 weeks for males and almost no change for females (a slight increase of 0.5 weeks) from the latest non-overlapping period of 2015 to 2017.”

            1. veti Silver badge

              Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

              "Life expectancy from birth" is a subtly different metric, and not what TFA was discussing. According to the World Bank - the agency I found that tries to track this value internationally - this number has fallen for many developed countries between those dates, including Germany, Italy and Sweden.

    2. Pascal Monett Silver badge

      Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

      Always makes me laugh.

      What's the point of raising retirement age when you can no longer get a job after 50 ?

      1. Steve Davies 3 Silver badge
        Holmes

        Re: you can no longer get a job after 50 ?

        In US terms, that equates to 'A greeter at Walmart"

        Here? 'Stacking shelves at Tesco at 02:00 six days a week'

      2. ThatOne Silver badge
        Devil

        Re: Sshhhhh!!!!!

        > What's the point of raising retirement age when you can no longer get a job after 50 ?

        Come on, it's obvious: Paying less retirement pensions.

  3. Winkypop Silver badge

    Longevity in the US

    Has been privatised.

    All praise the mighty dollar!

    No money, no care, no chance.

    1. wolfetone Silver badge

      Re: Longevity in the US

      And here in the UK, there are a group who want to push us in to your delightful US model of healthcare. Our life expectancy is the 2nd worst in the G7 - behind the US.

      The unfortunate thing is that, normally, you would expect me to point at the Tories for it but oh no. Labour are just as bad, and Sir Beer Korma and others have been receiving donations from people who work in the private health care sector.

      1. 42656e4d203239 Silver badge
        Pint

        Re: Longevity in the US

        Beer Korma is just another Tory....

        have a pint cos I haven't heard that nick name for him before, and, of course, it's beer O'Clock on a Friday.

        1. wolfetone Silver badge

          Re: Longevity in the US

          Maybe you're a member of the Iron Filings Society? *taps nose*

          I do find it hillarious we've both been voted down for speaking out about SIr Beer Korma and Tory-Lite Labour.

        2. Steve Davies 3 Silver badge

          Re: Longevity in the US

          Beer Korma is actually worse than many Tories on this matter.

          Many of his predecessors will be turning in their collective graves at the thought of a Labor leader betraying the NHS which as we all know is the sole creation of the Labor Party.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Beer Korma?

            I guess from context you're referring to the UK Labour party but why that acronym?

      2. iron

        Re: Longevity in the US

        > Our life expectancy is the 2nd worst in the G7 - behind the US.

        Are you poor at reading or at maths? From the article:

        US life expectancy = 76.1 years

        UK life expectancy = 80.8 years

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: Longevity in the US

          >UK life expectancy = 80.8 years

          Scotland: hold my beer Buckfast

          1. Dagg Silver badge

            Re: Longevity in the US

            Scotland: Death by deep-frying

        2. yetanotheraoc Silver badge

          Re: Longevity in the US

          "Our life expectancy is the 2nd worst in the G7 - behind the US."

          Translation: US is 1st worst, and UK is _behind_ at 2nd worst. Those double negatives can be tricky.

      3. TheMaskedMan Silver badge

        Re: Longevity in the US

        "Sir Beer Korma..."

        ROFLMAO Excellent, haven't heard that one before! Shame I can only give one upvote.

        Man's a complete Muppet, but then he's a politician and (former) lawyer, neither of which inspires any confidence whatsoever.

        Can't say I'm thrilled with the other team, either. Aren't they about due a leadership election - it's been weeks since the last one?

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: Longevity in the US

          The last Scottish bloke seemed fairly reasonable, have we thought of just outsourcing the job to the SNP ?

    2. PhilipN Silver badge

      Re: Longevity in the US

      Ah yes - Americans. The nation with the best teeth and the worst health on the planet.

      1. Alumoi Silver badge

        Re: Longevity in the US

        I think I see a corelation here: good teeth means you can eat more junk food thus worse health.

        1. WageSlave5678

          Re: Longevity in the US

          Don't confuse vanity with greed ;-) !

          1. yetanotheraoc Silver badge

            Re: Longevity in the US

            Don't confuse greed with gluttony ;-) !

      2. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

        Re: Longevity in the US

        The nation with the best teeth

        Maybe at one point. Certainly not now..

        1. ecofeco Silver badge

          Re: Longevity in the US

          This. It is no longer true.

        2. Bebu

          Re: Longevity in the US

          《"The nation with the best teeth"

          Maybe at one point. Certainly not now..》

          Many years ago I read the reason was the use of corn syrup as a sweetener instead of cane or beet sugar. The assertion was corn syrup (fructose+glucose) was a lot less likely than sucrose (cane sugar) to cause dental caries. Never bothered to discover the truth of this but interestingly corn syrup has also been blamed for the rise of obesity in the US. Both probably a load of codswallop.

          Personally I blame the internet and "The Simpsons" (thanks Tracey Ullman)... for everything.

          The WW2 GIs, apart from their main fault of being over here, did appear to have far better teeth than the Tommies or colonials.

      3. TRT

        Re: Longevity in the US

        I don't know... there's a fair few Joes down the Bayou with barely a tooth between them, but they're more than a match for an alligator any day of the week.

        1. DJV Silver badge
          Happy

          Re: but they're more than a match for an alligator any day of the week

          I'd love to see the video evidence on this!

      4. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        Re: Longevity in the US

        >Americans. The nation with the best teeth and the worst health on the planet.

        Americans - people who eat like they have free health care

      5. Cheshire Cat

        Re: Longevity in the US

        On average, the US population have *worse* teeth than the UK. It's just that the rich have a fashion for cosmetic dentistry, and the rich and beautiful are the only ones they show on their media. The majority of the population cannot afford dentistry at all, and so have worse teeth than the average in the stereotypically-awful UK.

        Though, with it now becoming impossible to find an NHS Dentist the UK is doing its best to join the US at the bottom of the pile.

    3. RobThBay

      Re: Longevity in the US

      It seems like lead poisoning by projectile (of several calibres) is a big problem in 'Merica.

      1. Bebu

        Re: Longevity in the US

        "It seems like lead poisoning by projectile (of several calibres) is a big problem in 'Merica."

        The wikipedia entry for Lead_Poisoning under symptoms pretty much describes the state of US society.

        Loss of teeth doesn't appear to be a major sign of lead poisoning but is possibly due overconsumption of well earned knuckle sandwiches.

  4. Pascal Monett Silver badge

    "life expectancy in [the USA]"

    It might improve the day you guys no longer have an entire supermarket aisle devoted to upteen flavors of potato chips.

    Just a thought . . .

    1. lglethal Silver badge
      Go

      Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

      I'd maybe suggest that it's more to do with not having an aisle filled with guns, and an entire counter at the chemist handing out Opiates like Candy.

      (Over 50,000 deaths caused by guns in the US in 2021 (majority Suicide) according to the CDC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41488081. And unfortunately, I can no longer find the Opiates Death article but it was a similar number of deaths. 100,000 people dying early, the vast majority not being already "old", drags down the average life expectancy in a very big way!).

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

        Eh, I have a gun specifically so I can commit suicide, as any sort of assisted euthanasia is illegal here.

        I am NOT going through Alzheimer's, nor am I subjecting my friends/family to it.

        Edit: here's to hoping, though, that I never have to actually use it.

        1. lglethal Silver badge
          Go

          Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

          That's a strangely specific thing to be afraid of. I can only imagine you have family who have suffered through it, and fear hereditary effects.

          But you should then probably be aware that Alzheimer's doesnt hit in a day. It's a pretty steady downward spiral, which takes a good year or two for you to actually notice and get perhaps an initial diagnosis. As such, you really dont have a good reason to own a gun right now. By all means, if you the worst happens and you get diagnosed with Alzheimer's and you still feel that way, then you can still buy a gun and make use of it. But there is really no reason to have a gun whilst your healthy. You're far more likely to have an accident with it and hurt yourselfv (or god forbid someone else) then to ever need to make use of it for Alzheimer's.

          1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

            >But you should then probably be aware that Alzheimer's doesnt hit in a day. It's a pretty steady downward spiral,

            That's why we don't have re-licensing requirements for old people driving.

            You don't notice the steady decline, but one day you are driving your F150 the wrong way down the freeway and nature takes it's natural course.

            1. Stork

              Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

              The problem is that someone else may be involved.

              It seems though, that Denmark also stopped the re-licensing. Most older people know when to stop, and far too many medicine people were too lenient with renewals.

              1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

                Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

                >The problem is that someone else may be involved.

                I think you might be fundamentally misunderstanding the nature of America

                1. ian 22

                  Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

                  Indeed, involving someone else is the whole point. The younger the better. Population control via the 2nd Amendment.

          2. Cxwf

            Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

            > By all means, if you the worst happens and you get diagnosed with Alzheimer's and you still feel that way, then you can still buy a gun and make use of it. But there is really no reason to have a gun whilst your healthy.

            I am thankfully not at the stage in my life where I need to consider such things. But in defense of the guy above you, if you wait until the last moment where it’s obvious you only want the gun for this purpose, it becomes far far more likely that someone will deny you that opportunity “for your own good”. Probably more reliable if you already have it squirreled away in a gun safe well in advance.

            1. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

              have it squirreled away in a gun safe

              By that stage you may have forgotten where you left it or forgotten the safe combination/where the keys are.

        2. Old Used Programmer

          Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

          With Alzheimer's you're likely to forget you've got the gun and what you got it for. If you come down with ALS, you'll remember, but you won't be mobile enough to go get it or strong enough to hold up to use it.

      2. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

        The lifestyle-induced diabetes and obesity epidemics are just getting under way. And, with the prospect of an effective diet pill, have just lost an incentive to change.

        Gun deaths are unfortunate, but like RTAs (another astonishingly high number in the US in comparison with other OECD countries), they're fairly constant. And, if the majority are related to suicide, then removing the guns won't change that much. Gun deaths are a tragedy but I think that, at best, some kind of restriction on the kind of weapons available over the counter and possibly whom they're sold to, is the best you can hope for.

        1. Paul Crawford Silver badge

          Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

          And, if the majority are related to suicide, then removing the guns won't change that much.

          I'm not so sure that is true. Yes, some folks will always find a way to kill themselves. But a gun makes it very easy and very simple to end it all after a few drinks too many whereas in another home, without a gun, they would not have found the means to do so before they either passed out or sobered up.

          1. Orv Silver badge

            Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

            Guns essentially remove the possibility of failing at suicide in a non-debilitating way. Some people who fail at their first suicide attempt try again and succeed, but many also get treatment and go on to full lives. A lot of people who are depressed also have suicidal ideation that they don't act on because they have no ready means of carrying it out, and the impulse passes.

    2. Kev99 Silver badge

      Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

      Nailed it. I lived in Mwanza, Tanzania for a while and the "ex-pat" grocery U-Turn grocery had less product in its entire store than some US groceries have in one aisle. It still had everything we needed, including Snickers candy bars.

      1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

        Reminds me, albeit of a visit I made to friends in Olympia, WA. After the long transatlantic and transcontinental flights and two hour journey from the airport, I was offered coffee with a slightly self-deprecating remark: "we know American coffee isn't very good. But we do have the best creamers…" I simply didn't know what to say to that. Fortunately, out of the off came a guffaw from my friend.

        I mean creamers? Have your coffee how you like it, but if you like it with milk or cream, have it with milk or cream, for a bit of luxury. Sugar if you must, and spices and spirits for special occasions. But then in the local supermarket I saw, if not quite an aisle, a bloody huge section of these "creamers", basically just more flavoured HFCS and fat products. Stuff that nobody has ever needed but, apparently something that America can no longer live without!

        1. Paul Crawford Silver badge

          Re: "life expectancy in [the USA]"

          Indeed!

          I like milky coffee but if the only option are those "creamers" then I really prefer it black.

  5. steelpillow Silver badge
    Facepalm

    How long will the elephant in the room live?

    This study is all very well, but it is heavily focused on the developed nations. The US statistics suggest that this is not representative of humanity at large.

    So here's the elephant in the room; what about indigenous populations of South America, India, China and Africa? These include the two largest nations on Earth, and - the elephant int he room whispers in my ear - might just alter the species statistics a tiny bit, no? And given that elephants themselves are notoriusly long-lived, I credit it with some experience of these things.

    1. lglethal Silver badge
      Go

      Re: How long will the elephant in the room live?

      As nations develop, lifting the vast majority of their people out of poverty, you see the life expectancy grow massively. Up until you hit what was previously considered the plateau.

      That's why the focus of this article would have been on the West. Western nations are pretty uniform on maximum life expectancy, and most of the rest of the world is slowly rising to match as their people rise to a "western" standard of living (i.e. access to accessible health care, sufficient nutrition, etc.). As such, if you're interested in what the maximum could be, then you explore those already at the maximum.

      Oh and as for America, it's values are dropping primarily due to other factors - gun deaths, opiate abuse, unhealthy lifestyles, etc. So many people dying young, drags the average down...

      1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        Re: How long will the elephant in the room live?

        >As nations develop, lifting the vast majority of their people out of poverty, you see the life expectancy grow massively. Up until you hit what was previously considered the plateau.

        Fortunately now they will go past the plateau and hit the diet-and-exercise decline in less than a generation.

        People whose parents grew up in famine will now die prematurely of western lifestyle diseases

      2. Stork

        Re: How long will the elephant in the room live?

        You could add poverty to that, same as the UK.

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: How long will the elephant in the room live?

          It's the wrong sort of poverty.

          Old european peasants growing their own vegetables, rarely eating meat or sugar, never eating processed food, not knowing what HFCS even means = the sort of diet that only the rich now have.

      3. yetanotheraoc Silver badge

        Re: How long will the elephant in the room live?

        "That's why the focus of this article would have been on the West."

        Actually, I think they are trying to influence USA health care policy. But don't worry, the USA minority party won't fall for the subterfuge.

      4. steelpillow Silver badge
        Facepalm

        Re: How long will the elephant in the room live?

        You miss the point. This is about the plateau. The Buddhist nations have long had a higher plateau than the West, and I believe that also applies to Taoist monks and certain Hindu traditions.

        Yes most folks die in poverty far below, but that is not what the plateau is about.

  6. JohnMurray

    Everybody

    dies eventually.

    The idea [of most people] is to have a good life, not necessarily a long one!

    Consider: Your life expectancy is ruled by your immune system, which starts failing at puberty!

    Life expectancy and healthy-life-expectancy are separated by a few decades.

    1. jmch Silver badge

      Re: Everybody

      "Your life expectancy is ruled by your immune system, which starts failing at puberty!"

      Apropos of nothing, from an evolutionary perspective, human lineages have been selected for (a) growing up enough to produce offspring and (b) living long enough that your offspring can fend for themselves and produce their own offspring. Seeing that historically, humans were having kids at a much younger age than is typical in the modern west, from an evolutionary POV, anything older than 35-40 is a bonus

      1. Stork

        Re: Everybody

        Not quite I think. Even in palaeolithic times, there were quite some people who reached their 60es. Humans are odd in the sense that no other female mammals have menopause -> grandmothers were important for the genes.

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: Everybody

          >Humans are odd in the sense that no other female mammals have menopause -> grandmothers were important for the genes.

          Also true for whales (at least for Orcas) and IIRC dolphins

          1. yetanotheraoc Silver badge

            Re: Everybody

            ____ is unique to humans.

            No matter what word fills the blank, the statement is wrong. I once thought it was safe to say "Staring at the stars is unique to humans." But koalas do it.

            1. Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch Silver badge

              Re: Everybody

              Too busy metabolising the eucalyptus oil to focus, though.

  7. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Optional

    People already know how to lead healthy lives which will maximise their potential lifespan, the focus should be on why some people choose not too.

    I had two decades of the cycling to work / packed lunch routine (since made redundant by WFH) which left me in pretty good shape compared to my peers when I hit my fifties. Nothing esoteric, no deep thought or flashes of insight required. I was far from the only person doing this so why didn't my co-workers make the same choices?

    Anon because at least one ex-colleague reads this site and I don't want this to be misunderstood as a personal criticism.

    1. moonhaus

      Re: Optional

      "focus should be on why some people choose not too"

      Maybe focus first on why some people assume it's a choice, rather than a logistics problem or hidden disability etc.

      You sound rather like the cycling loonies (and i write this as someone who used to cycle a LOT) who when faced with the reality of people needing cars in online forums, blame the person for not cycling, rather than looking to solve the actual issues.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Optional

        @Moonhaus, I think that writing "choose not too" covers logistics and disabilities, both hidden and obvious.

        For example, why would someone choose to work a significant distance (the logistical problem) from their home if they were required to attend that space on a regular basis?

        Only once we have a greater understanding can we then take steps to ameliorate the problem.

        1. ThatOne Silver badge

          Re: Optional

          > why would someone choose to work a significant distance (the logistical problem) from their home

          Because moving each time you change job might be too expensive? Because your spouse works there, or your kids don't want to leave their friends and their school? Because you work in a place where living is not an option (downtown business center)? That's some of the reasons which come to mind, I'm sure I could find more.

        2. TheMaskedMan Silver badge

          Re: Optional

          "For example, why would someone choose to work a significant distance (the logistical problem) from their home if they were required to attend that space on a regular basis?"

          Because they like their job and they like their home. Why would someone choose to abandon either one when they can commute in relative comfort instead of pedalling their arse off through heavy traffic and lousy weather?

          I, too, used to cycle a lot, and I've recently bought a bike after 20+ years so I can do it for fun when I feel like it, but it won't be replacing my car

    2. jmch Silver badge

      Re: Optional

      "People already know how to lead healthy lives which will maximise their potential lifespan, the focus should be on why some people choose not too."

      Because people, even more than being addicted to cigarettes / beer / chips / fatty foods etc are first and foremost addicted to their own habits. "Knowing" something because your doctor tells you is very different from *knowing* something because you've experienced it

      1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

        Re: Optional

        There's also a measure of "you can live forever if you only ever drink Himalayan spring water and organic lettuce grown by monks, or instead, you can enjoy life"

        1. LybsterRoy Silver badge

          Re: Optional

          As a type II diabetic who still eats chocolate I fully agree!

  8. Plest Silver badge
    Happy

    Dennis Leary said it best...

    "They say quitting smoking can add years to your life but those are the worst years. Those are the years you can't do anything spend all your time sitting around and shitting in your adult diapers!"

    1. Jedit Silver badge
      Devil

      Re: Dennis Leary said it best...

      Who said it before Denis Leary said it?

      1. The commentard formerly known as Mister_C Silver badge

        Re: Dennis Leary said it best...

        I would normally say it was the guy who said "I have a scoop for you. I stole his act. I camouflaged it with punchlines, and to really throw people off, I did it before he did."

        but the closest quote I could find was "They proved that if you quit smoking, it will prolong your life. What they haven't proved is that a prolonged life is a good thing. I haven't seen the stats on that yet."

  9. Alex Stuart

    Hard problems to fix

    The "plateau" (area under the tail end of the bell-curve more accurately, it's not like we're programmed to self-destruct after X years) on lifespan won't be moving significantly until we fix a few very hard problems - brain degeneration (so dementia etc), cancer and heart/artery disease to name three. Risk of all of them go up with age.

    Even then, 'healthspan' won't quite improve in the same way, as a 100 year old free of major disease is, well, still 100 years old and inevitably quite clapped out.

    The real, root-cause fix will be to treat the *disease* known as 'aging'. So, looking at gene therapy. Research into super-centenarians has found some gene variants in common, and of course genes are also responsible for the extraordinary longevity/cancer resistance of some species e.g. Greenland shark, naked mole rat. We need to find the right genetic software to give all cells youthful vitality/immortality, but at the same time prevent uncontrolled division AKA cancer. Very difficult task, but no reason to believe impossible. Question is only will we be able to reach that point without destroying the planet in one form or other first? And if we make it that far, the ethical questions of who gets to have their firmware patched to human 2.0...

    1. A. Coatsworth Silver badge
      Windows

      Re: Hard problems to fix

      My (laughlably basic and incomplete) understanding was that we are kind of programmed to self destruct: the telomeres at the end of chromosomes will run out after X amount of cell divisions, and after that it's a free for all with our genes.

      So yeah, probably genetic therapy will be the way to go.

      1. ThatOne Silver badge

        Re: Hard problems to fix

        > programmed to self destruct

        Not really. We're just like cars (or household appliances): Some are more robust and well built, and can handle a higher mileage while others start falling apart quite fast.

        (Yes, I know, this is highly discriminatory and politically incorrect and stuff, but the facts are there.)

  10. Version 1.0 Silver badge
    Happy

    Living better is documented

    If you are interesting in this story, regardless of your current age, then read Exercised: Why Something We Never Evolved to Do Is Healthy and Rewarding, an excellent book by Daniel Lieberman that explains how we evolved and how we can improve our lives these days. It's very educational (Dan's a paleoanthropologist at Harvard University) and will tell you what has happened and what can happen in your future. I've read it and boosted my exercises, walking about 30 miles every week, and am happy, reading this book will help everyone.

  11. Paul Smith

    Absence of evidence

    For all of human history, there have been rare individuals that lived 100+ years. The average life expectancy is increasing, not because people can live longer then before, but because less people are dying early.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: Absence of evidence

      Yes for "average" life-expectancy. What these studies are showing is that we are going from there being a handful of people who are newsworthy for reaching 100, to having to deal with 50% of the population living passed 100 - while at the same time having the number of young people declining

      1. DS999 Silver badge
        Unhappy

        Re: Absence of evidence

        So many old farts and fewer younger people sounds like a recipe to elect Donald Trump as president for life

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: Absence of evidence

          It would save a lot of time/money/argument if we simply chose the oldest candidate to be President

          - rather than carefully selecting the most honest / intelligent / empathetic / diligent / moral and wise one

          1. DS999 Silver badge

            Re: Absence of evidence

            Well if that's the case we have plenty of people to choose from in the Senate who are older than other Trump or Biden! Unfortunately no one as old as Strom Thurmond was, who was in office until he was a few months shy of his 100th birthday IIRC.

            No one is excited about giving Biden another term, but if it is between him and Trump I expect him to win in a landslide. The republican party is screwed because a majority but not a strong majority of its voters would vote for Trump in the primaries again. Hardly any independents (by independents I mean that 10% of the population who are truly independent, not people who are registered independent because they like they think they are but vote for one party almost all the time) would vote for him in the general election this time around, so if they nominate him they are cutting their own throats.

            Only people who get all their news from Fox or worse and believe Jan. 6th was a peaceful demonstration by patriots protesting a stolen election want to see the orange snowflake back in office.

            1. TomG
              WTF?

              Re: Absence of evidence

              I wondered how long it would take a Liberal to start bashing Trump and Fox News. I find it amazing that Liberals find Bumbling Biden such a great President. Personally, I am leery of all politicians.

          2. ThatOne Silver badge
            Devil

            Re: Absence of evidence

            > rather than carefully selecting the most honest / intelligent / empathetic / diligent / moral and wise one

            We do that???

  12. Charlie Clark Silver badge

    Fallacy of progress

    A major flaw that things that have been developing since the industrial revolution is, that it doesn't really take into consideration many of the consequences of the developments that have led to this progress: a growing population needed to be fed led to overfishing and overuse of land. We continue to displace and destroy ecosytems to feed ourselves. Energy from fossil fuel: Northern latitudes simply couldn't support our population density in winter without the energy provided by fossil fuels. Summer provides its own problems, but doesn't need quite as much energy. We're starting to get a feel for the consequences of burning all those dinosaurs and trees… But even healthcare, beyond improvements in hygiene, is starting to run into limits as resistant bacteria develop. Whether it's resistant TB or MRSA, if we don't find a solution soon, we can expect pandemics to bring that plateau down.

    1. LybsterRoy Silver badge

      Re: Fallacy of progress

      I was actually thinking that with the climate emergency average age was destined to reach net zero soon.

      1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        Re: Fallacy of progress

        Tha's a much more complex scenario and will, to some extent, be mitigated by migration.

  13. PRR Silver badge

    > Except maybe in America,

    "America"? Is that Canada? Peru? Or are you specifically meaning United States?

  14. Jemma

    Well of course...

    Retardistani life expectancy is plummeting like a depressed 737 Max. There's school shootings every second hour, then there's the Sith spawn antivaxxers including a notable family I saw "6 out of 9 of us have died from cv19 but we're not having the vaccine, we don't need it..."

    What the sister shaggers are eating is entirely irrelevant. They're happy that the leading cause of pediatric death is school shootings. It's fine and dandy that their kids end up as kiddie-pizza™. They refuse to vaccinate against anything, they blame vaccines designed to STOP cv19 and its various cardiac effects for the cardiac effects of cv19, while running a bloody MARATHON with covid and wondering why idiot boy dies of a heart attack...

    Im sorry but they're doing it to themselves.

    And people like them are putting my life at risk. I'm fighting breast cancer & (the next) red devil chemo mashes your immune system... But hey, let's not get immunised, let's go out with active cv19 infection. I can tell you Fibromyalgia, Carboplatin/Nab-Paclitaxel chemo, breast cancer and cv19 is *not* an enjoyable experience.

    The sooner their civil war starts and they nuke everything between Mexica and Canada to glass, the happier I'll be.

    #Retardistan #Inbredistan #Failedstate

    As for being able to live for 140 years - if you're like my gran, who was running round like a lemming for 93 years and healthy bar arthritis I've no problems with the idea.. But I'm not like that. I've had cancer for 13 years straight, Fibromyalgia for longer. Life isn't so much fun.. Another 90 odd years of hospitals and chronic pain, thanks but no.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: Well of course...

      So there are a bunch of states busily producing an abundance of low-skilled, un-educated people with low life-expectancy, just as we are going to need more low-skilled care workers for the ageing elite?

      We've created morlochs but persuaded them to eat McDonald's instead - sounds like a brilliant plan

      1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge
        Coffee/keyboard

        Re: Well of course...

        "We've created morlochs but persuaded them to eat McDonald's instead - sounds like a brilliant plan"

        See icon :-)

        (Watch out for the New Improved "MeetFreetm" SOYA-lent Green BigMacs, coming soon to a "restaurant" near you Real Soon Now.)

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: Well of course...

          CHOW (tm), even – we are rather proud of this – a completely artificial dill pickle

    2. ecofeco Silver badge

      Re: Well of course...

      Retardistani ...

      LOL! So stealing.

    3. MrZoolook

      Re: Well of course...

      "And people like them are putting my life at risk. I'm fighting breast cancer & (the next) red devil chemo mashes your immune system... But hey, let's not get immunised, let's go out with active cv19 infection. I can tell you Fibromyalgia, Carboplatin/Nab-Paclitaxel chemo, breast cancer and cv19 is *not* an enjoyable experience."

      So, what you're saying is, they should be forced into medical treatment as a convenience to you.

      Got it, you're as selfish as them. All you had to do was say that.

  15. ecofeco Silver badge

    Except in America

    Says it all.

  16. Groo The Wanderer Silver badge

    I don't expect Canadian lifespans to be all that much better, given that we end up inhaling a lot of the factory "food" that the Americans produce here in Canada. If we've a longer lifespan, it is because we don't have artificial limits on healthcare imposed by greedy insurance companies who buy off the government to keep the cash flowing...

    1. This post has been deleted by its author

    2. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      The amazing medicinal benefits of Maple Syrup, Timbits and Poutine

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