Huge lithium discovery could end world shortages ... Oh, wait, it's in Iran Lithium, sometimes hyped as white gold, has been highly sought after for its role in battery production, and other things. Global demand is expected to continue to outstrip supply in the years to come. Albemarle Corporation projects [PDF] lithium demand will rise from 1.8 million metric tons in 2025 to 3.7 million metric tons …
A couple of people have been posting street video from Iran over the last few months. Its a sort of psychological warfare because instead of the gray, dark, Iran full of starving people ruled over by nasty fundamentalists at every street corner you've got a pretty normal city with lots of people, stores,malls, street food and so on. One of the things I found particularly interesting is the price of things in the stores, phones, appliances and so on. It appears that an average, reasonably well off, Iranian can buy just about anything we can paying about the same as we'd pay in California.
So where would all this consumer crap be coming from? A lot is manufactured locally but obviously the weak link in our entire sanctions regime is China. This will be where all the phones come from (not just budget ones (as you'd expect iPhones are grossly overpriced there, just as they are here).
One thing I did notice is that a lot of the younger women don't bother with head covering and many have just a beanie made from wool (It is winter, after all). I'm pretty sure that outside the cities things are different -- like us in the US "they have their Republicans, too" --- but it certainly answers the question about lithium or whatever. The Chinese will just buy it.
the weak link in our entire sanctions regime is China
funny that, I'd have thought the the very sanctions themselves are the weak part : "we " sanction people that "we " don't like, to find out later that "we " actually need what those people have. So "we " try to overthrow their "regime " – wage a coup d'état and call it operation freedom – and when that doesn't succeed – sometimes it does – then we call them "terrorist regime " and "we " sanction them more .... but what do "we " do if "we " still need what they have ?
"China taking over Iran for it's natural resources?"
My favorite beneficent China story is from Angola. China agreed to build a needed bridge. Well, needed to access a mining area if you wanted those resources shipped to the nearest port. And they would build it cheap, only $$$illions to be owed by the Angolan government for the loan. Which would be paid by all those taxes from mining. (Rates to be decided later...quietly and out of sight)
Everybody thought it would be wonderful. The locals were happy they could feed the construction workers. The engineering students were elated at a major construction project they could be involved in. Infrastructure would be improved. Yay!
But... all the construction supplies and people were from China. (So Angolan money paying Chinese wages and materials) Who didn't like the local food so all food was prepared/imported from China. (More Angolan money eaten up) And the project was closed access, no Angolans involved. (An education of a different sort?) And only the rail line to/from the mines was improved. (No local stops between mines and port and rather hard seating at that)
And... bridge built, those ores were found at cheaper prices closer to China, so much less production than anyone could have predicted. (!) Bridge to a hole in the ground, making a hole in Angola's economy.
Hey, coulda been worse. Read up on the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota.
Absolutely appalling behaviour I agree - but no worse than Western countries have done ... invading Iraq for non existent WMDs anyone? Or slavery? or Empire? Or Native Americans/Aborigines?
But all that is so long ago right? It would never happen in today's day and age ;)
You obviously don't know human behaviour very well ...
@johnfbw Such naivety! So wrongdoings in the past couldn't have been stopped when they were occurring?! Of course they could, but the march towards making as much money as possible in as short a time as possible won - as it does in the modern era - human behaviour doesn't change that much over time ;) Money always wins
I take it you've heard that some US states are allowing child labour laws to weaken? Is this OK for the US to do, but wrong for everyone else to do? What is right and what is wrong? I think the answer to that is largely who wins the war :)
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/nov/02/child-labor-laws-weakened-us-industries-teens
"So wrongdoings in the past couldn't have been stopped when they were occurring?!"
Not what he's saying. He's pointing out that until something has been done, that it can be stopped. But I'm sure you knew that and just wanted to sound clever.
I mean, if we use your logic, you're suggesting nothing bad has ever been stopped, right?
What was that about being naive?
@MrZoolook "Not what he's saying. He's pointing out that until something has been done, that it can be stopped" - you mean cause and effect?
Yes - this is logical and makes sense - where is the restitution from America to Iraq for the Iraq War (made on the grounds of non existant WMDs?) - where is the restitution towards the Native Americans and Aborigines for having entire countries taken away from them? Where is the restituion from Japan to China for war crimes in World War 2 - for example when Unit 731 experimented on live Chinese human subjects? This isn't really a huge thing for Westerners to care about as there is another large group of affected individuals which get a lot more of the public sympathy.
In the first few cases the Americans absolved the Japanese of any crimes by taking their research - and I believe they also took the research from German rocket scientists as well - but those are considered the spoils of war and therefore ok right?
I know I know - it's too long ago and too messy and too inconvenient to talk about and resolve - we should therefore just worry about it when other countries do it. I believe the word for this is hypocrisy ... or is it naivety?
The sad fact of the matter is that although much vaunted, talking doesn't solve any problems - war and violence of action does.
Both World Wars werent stopped by diplomacy - I believe in the case of WW2 it was the levelling of 2x Japanese cities that did it - for this reason we should have another world war as quickly as possible - it is the best way of declaring a winner so that the march towards making as much money as possible can resume
but no worse than Western countries have done
Yes, due to location and empire decisions, China was not involved in the Moslem/Arabic slave traffic like Britain and the USA were.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_China
It's hard to find "good guys" or single out "bad guys" in slave history.
No, I don't think it's out of fashion. It's just been rebranded as "economic assistance" - with strings attached. This time, you get to elect your leaders, but you export the gains of the sweat of your labour to capitalist masters. Or CCP Masters. Or ... anyway, not you.
@Fred Daggy On the one hand I totally get your point - on the other hand, I'm not sure you fully understand how international deals work.
Basically the rule of thumb is "no one does or gives something for nothing"
You know that companies exist to make a profit right? If you want something for nothing you need to ask for international aid - and then you really find out who your friends are - so for example when the Turkish/Syrian areas had an earthquake - both countries asked for assistance - and got very different levels of response.
If you want countries to develop infra etc - you need to offer something in return - it's a trade. As an example, in the UK in order for areas to be redeveloped, areas that previously would have been a public right of way have suddenly become under the ownership of the private companies - which means if they don't want you to film etc - they can enforce those edicts legally in a way which doesn't exist on public land.
So if you're an African country and you'd like your infrastructure to be developed then from a Chinese perspective what do you have to offer in return? I don't see the West doing anything from a purely altrusitic purpose - and to be fair these countries weren't even on the radar of Western countries until China got involved ... and if China stepped back, would the West take their place - or would it be seen as suddenly uneconomically viable and the entire thing shut down?
Lithium is abundant across the planet. The more you look, the more you find. The major obstacles to mining it in "the civilized world" are environmental regulations & NIMBY. Which is the main reason most of it is mined in places with lax regulations and/or high levels of corruption.
None of which are significant lithium producers. Nevada is presently the only significant lithium producer in the US. The next on the list will be North Carolina, which used to produce most of the worlds lithium (mining spodumene from the Carolina Tin-Spodumene Belt) but whose mines closed years ago. Some of those mines (e.g. Piedmont lithium project) are opening back up.
While true, in that that is what will happen, there's not that much environmental impact from the actual mining. It's a few square Km that can easily be back-filled and restored. Unless it's a "special" area. The real problem is refining it.
The problem with most of Europe is that a minority of loud voices are against anything that might damage a blade of grass. I'm not sure exactly what some of the more extremist greenies actually want, but if they object to all forms of mining, they ain't getting any more solar panels or wind turbines.
> but if they object to all forms of mining, they ain't getting any more solar panels or wind turbines.
Of course they are
Everyone knows these things are green and grow on trees and that if the trees truly want you to have them they drop them in autumn so that you can harvest them without doing any harm.
@SkippyBing
"To be fair Greta is now campaigning against a wind farm"
From the outside not knowing her or her life I feel sorry for her and suspect her state of mind is through abuse (telling her stories of hell and fire due to MMCC co2 theory). It is of course possible she was just some trouble maker who didnt want to go to school and likes to complain no matter how wrong she is but I like to think the best instead of assume the worst
> To be fair Greta is now campaigning against a wind farm
As much as it pains me to defend this.
As I understand it she's complaining about building a big wind farm on an indigenous people's island on the basis that they aren't the ones wanting quite that much electrical power.
More a case of "if you want a wind farm kindly put it in your own back yard not someone else's"
Wind farms are probably a good plan so long as everyone remembers that for ever Gw of capacity you build you still need to build a Gw of capacity that works when you want it rather than just when it happens to work. It's like my solar panels, in theory they can generate enough power for my house but hey I live in England and it's cold and wet and miserable outside and in the whole of December they made less than 2 days worth of power but I suspected that before I bought them. Fortunately there's some more reliable power production happing in the country as a whole.
There's about as much Lithium around as there is Copper or Nickel (depenging on how you count it. Lithium is lighter). More common than lead or silver or gold.
"Rare" as in "Rare Earths" means that is' not commonly available as lumps, like copper or silver or gold.
The stuff is everywhere. That's the problem. It would be cheaper if it was just all in one place.
The cassus belli have been stacking up for decades on this front. Ultimately, to avoid international condemnation you need support of the local populace to instigate regime change. Otherwise you're just as bad as Germany circa 1939 or other common examples.
From the POV of an average Iranian citizen, consider what drove them to boot out their western puppet king in the 1970's in the first place. If the revolution hasn't got them what they want, China or Ruzzia sure as hell aren't going to get them it either.
The US had just broke ground/gambling on a mine in Nevada...
The world and its dog are all looking for new sources of lithium. Here in the UK they're intending to get it out of saline water that's also used for ground source heat. People who know more about the field than I do are saying the Li price will drop even as the world economy rebounds because so many people have realised it's valuable so all potential sources are being developed. And if the boffins get Na-ion batteries working the price will rapidly head towards zero.
As always with minerals, the more prices go up the more deposits become economic to mine. And the converse, of course - see Cornish tin mines. The main driver of lower prices when demand goes up is cheaper ways to refine it and then manufacture the final items which use it.
> A naturally occurring isotope of Lithium – 6Li – is a key ingredient in the fusion fuel of practical thermonuclear weapons, and Iran is so very keen on developing its own nuclear weapons.
Despite insistent claims by a certain apartheid state and its allies that this is the case, claiming for now decades that Iran was developing a bomb and was only a short amount of time away from acquiring them (years, months, next Tuesday), more credible sources like the IAEA who have actually done on-ground inspections of sites have concluded otherwise. Perhaps one day Iran will cross the line, either because it was always the plan to be slow and take half a century to weaponize their civilian program or they were pushed into it via decades of crippling sanctions and unconcealed desire for regime change by others, but it is not there yet. If Iran do decide to join the nuclear club, it will be unfortunate, as I suspect aforementioned apartheid state with its current government will have no qualms applying its own undeclared stock of nuclear arms to its bogeyman rival and, once one side starts, the other will surely respond. Still that's all hypothetical and it's probably wiser for El Reg and others not to repeat propaganda and sustain a false narrative about the complicated situation that is Iran's nuclear program.
Icon for obvious reasons.
"Iran – one of just four countries America has designated a state sponsor of terrorism."
According to Seymour Hersh, Biden's USA just blew up with BOMBS the Nord Stream pipeline:
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
Does this mean, if proven true, USA will add USA to the list of "state sponsor of terrorism" ?
Some of the numbers look wrong. Current world production is approx 85,000 tons per year.
Corporation projects [PDF] lithium demand will rise from 1.8 million metric tons in 2025 to 3.7 million metric tons in 2030 largely
https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium-mining-what-you-should-know-about-the-contentious-issue.html#
And then there's the other use. A naturally occurring isotope of Lithium – 6Li – is a key ingredient in the fusion fuel of practical thermonuclear weapons,
For that use we are talking about kilograms of an uncontrolled material. Having local deposits of 8.5 million tons is an irrelevance.
The era of private car ownership will, eventually, wind up. We don't have the space for yet more cars, we can't burn fossil fuel and we wont have enough batteries to go round. Getting on ones bike, going by train, car (public) sharing or walking will have to become the norm.
The movement toward many people working from home was a good thing and hopefully contributes to a reduction in car usage generally. My household went from 2 cars to 1, and the savings are considerable.
The era of private car ownership will, eventually, wind up. We don't have the space for yet more cars, we can't burn fossil fuel and we wont have enough batteries to go round. Getting on ones bike, going by train, car (public) sharing or walking will have to become the norm.
That's a political choice.
If you generated power from nuclear instead of wind, oh it's not blowing so gas then we could have zero emissions on power generation.
Running battery powered cars with the same range as a fuel tank is idiotic; but if you put a third rail system down the side of motorways, major highways and city/town trunk roads to power EV's then you wouldn't need huge batteries; only one big enough to get you from home to the nearest road with power.
You're not addressing the issue of space. We don't physically have the space for more privately owned cars. Also, as I understand it, the tire particulate has a huge impact on the environment which EVs don't address.
Oh and about that wind that's not been blowing.
https://news.sky.com/story/britons-paying-hundreds-of-millions-to-turn-off-wind-turbines-as-network-cant-handle-the-power-they-make-on-the-windiest-days-12822156
And as for nuclear, of course. I agree it has a place in a multi pronged approach to power generation, but it too is a stop-gap between now and when the fuel runs out. Its gotta be renewables in the long-multi generational run. That or fusion which ya know is slightly ephemeral presently.
Don't even BOTHER with Lithium-Ion batteries!
Reversible Consumptive Anode/Cathode Process Aluminum-Sulfur batteries ARE HERE TODAY which have 8x the Energy Density of Li-Ion at the same Cubic Volume at only a 1.5x Weight difference!
NCA (North Canadian Aerospace aka a pseudonym for a Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada-based under-the-radar aerospace company!), after 20+ years of research and development, is PLEASED to announce the square-battery-cell-format Alu-Cell Aluminum-Sulfur battery system which contains a foamed Borosilicate Glass that prevents dendrite growth and also functions as a switchable diode pathway which lets current drain VERY quickly for high-impulse applications AND allows FAST charging at high current and high voltages without breakdown of the electrolyte or of the separator. Total cost of battery production is ONE-TENTH (i.e. 1/10 !!!!) that of Lithium-Ion and has no environmentally-toxic components. Designed and made entirely in Canada, the Alu-Cell system is being installed in current car and truck test beds ready to be distributed to major automotive manufactures AS OF MARCH 2023!
In the interests of world-wide environmental and technological advancement, all battery formulas, all ruggedized battery cell designs, all charging systems designs, all manufacturing specifications and documentation are NOW WORLD-WIDE FULLY FREE AND OPEN SOURCE UNDER GPL-3 Licence Terms!
The Ford F150 Lightning EV Truck (i.e. Lorry) currently has a long-range battery that is 133 KW/h while the same volume NCA "Alu-Cell" Aluminum-Sulfur battery at 2700 lbs (1225 kg) is 1060 KW/h with a total single-charge driving range of 2000 miles (3218 km) carrying 1700 lbs (771 kg) in the back bed. Towing Range while carrying a 10,000 lbs (4535 kg) full-size trailer and cargo of considerable brick-like aerodynamic drag is 520 Miles (836 km) up and down a 8.5% grade loop that was tested at temperatures ranging from -40 C deep winter cold to +40 C high summer heat.
The battery discharge cycle is continuous 0% empty to 100% full with a dregradation slope down to 80% of rated capacity after 23 Years! This means for 23 Years the battery can be charged over 8000 times from 0%-to-100% and fully drained back down to 0% over a period of 23 years and at the end of the 23rd year, the battery will STILL be chargeable up to 80% of its original capacity!
With a super-charging system of 480 volts at 200 amps (96,000 Watts), the full 2000 Mile (3218 km) driving distance can be attained in 11 hours and a 500 miles (804 km) driving charge in a mere two-and-a-half hours! No battery degradation occurs with half-charges (1000 miles) or quarter-charges (500 miles) for at least 23 years!
EV Range Anxiety is NOW OVER!!!! Aluminum-Sulfur has WON the EV battery system race!
Yay Canada!
V
"While Iran doubtless welcomes its lithium find, its timing could be better – the price of lithium has slipped recently due to the global economic downturn."
Better for who? We need the price of lithium to drop. One of the biggest reasons electric cars aren't growing in numbers fast enough is the high cost due to the high cost of batteries. We need more lithium (among other battery production materials) to bring down the price.
The phrase meant for Iran. If the price was at a high, then it couldn't be better for Iran in the sense that they would already be getting the best price they could. The phrase basically means that, had they discovered and exploited this earlier, they could have gotten more money from it.
"According to The Financial Tribune, an English language news publication focused on Iran that's operated by Tehran-based Donya-e-Eqtesad,"
I used to write for Donya. Fun gig - tho' my co-author has recently fled the country to avoid being hanged. Free market economics became not stylish. Despite my having written for them they're an accurate source.
"Maybe someone is confusing mass of ore with mass of refined Lithium? Dunno, but you're right, the numbers don't match."
No, this is OK. 1.6 million in 2025, up from 130k tonnes last year (numbers in the USGS 2023 report refer to 2022). Could be an over-estimate of course, but lithium is seeing soaring demand.
"Berkshire Hathaway Energy Renewables project, based in Imperial County, California. The project aims to extract lithium from geothermal brine"
Yep, it'll almost certainly work too. The membrane tech to make it so is good to go. Which also means that the Rhenish geothermal stations become a source, Cornish Lithium (and, umm Wearside?) also become available. The guys claiming to be able to extract direct from the Red Sea might be a bit hopeful. It's definitely extractable, but at what cost?
" There's another use of Lithium. A naturally occurring isotope of the element – 6Li – is a key ingredient in the fusion fuel of practical thermonuclear weapons. We mention that because Iran is so very keen on developing its own nuclear weapons."
And a rather fun bit there. Chile has those vast salt flats that are just stuffed with lithium. But there are only two licences to extract. The problem being that the nuclear ministry has to authorise any new licences. Which it never has. The reason being that when Pinochet rewrote the mining laws someone thought about Li-6 and inserted that requirement into the law. The effect of which has been that Pinochet's son in law (at, I think, SQM) has never had to face the disturbing possibility of competition in Chile. Because his licence was grandfathered in.....
Every few years there's a war between nations or groups of nations where one has something the other has, we've been doing it for millenia and we still act like pathetic toddlers in a playschool class who won't let other kids play with certain toys, kicking, screaming and yelling when another one takes that toy of the other.
When is humanity going to just grow up?! I'm not holding my breath, we haven't cracked in the last 10,000 years, can't see us fixing it before they nail me my box!
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