Good luck to USA in trying to maintain the monopoly / status-quo over advanced technologies / AI-SPY / ML, trying to limit China's growth.
USA will not succeed. Chips / advanced tech will be sold to China.
The US government is reportedly going to halt all Amercian technology export licenses to Huawei as the Biden administration inflicts a total ban on the sale of goods to the Chinese business. The prohibition would completely cut off Huawei maker from a range of components, including those from Qualcomm, which has retained an …
China's had a bit of recent problem with colonialism but this is all behind them now. The actual society -- country if you will -- dates back some 5000 years so leads to a rather different perspective on long term policy goals.
I'd be extremely surprised if Huawei and everyone else in China including the government didn't see this coming. The conclusion that they'll draw is that if you're successful and in danger of beating the US at what it thinks is its rightful game then you're going to be in trouble. It doesn't matter if the product's airliners (Brazil and Canada have fallen foul of that and Airbus has learned to tread very carefully) or semiconductors or whatever. Win the race and we'll come after you with everything we've got.
(That especially applies to selling oil in local currencies rather than petrodollars. Wars have been started because countries started trading oil in local currencies rather than our fiat.)
Wars have been started because countries started trading oil in local currencies rather than our fiat
Agree. Saddam and Gadaffi were killed because of that. Problem is nowadays, China and Russia are backing the ones who choose not to trade oil in petrodollars. And both have nuclear weapons.
Bit of a stalemate. Or accept the new world order. Or nuclear winter.
All other countries could help by demonising the Chinese as much as possible - keep banging on about the security angle and how bad CHY-NA is at ... well everything - and how good the West is about .... well everything
As pretty much most countries have a saviour type mentality about the West it should go quite well - apart from maybe countries like Iraq that have tasted that freedom, democracy and justice at first hand ...
What could go wrong?
Most European countries will already be following their Government's mandate to remove all Huawei equipment from their network.
The key thing now is to shut China out of 6G, 7G etc
The trouble iwth this is that as they hold a lot of the patents to 5G they may just be able to develop the technology themselves ... so the only real way to stop them (even denying chips won't help as they can make their own eventually - even if they may be inferior etc - it's just a matter of time) - is a more drastic permanent solution ...
One unintended consequence of this may be the impetus for the Middle Kingdom to establish a competitive chip manufacturing industry. I am sure that they have already embarked on replicating the photolithography from the Netherlands. Then building fabrication to compete with Taiwan.
The Netherlands itself became an innovation centre after an economic crisis in the 1970s, which became known as the Dutch Disease. The energy sector in the Netherlands boomed after 1959 and the discovery of North Sea oil. This sector developed rapidly and the economy boomed. However, no other sector developed and when the energy prices fell the Dutch economy was hit hard. After that, the country diversified rapidly and become the most innovative country in Europe is many sectors, including agriculture, dwarfing all other European countries.
You might recall that when the UK found itself in possession of oil reserves there was much talk in the government of using the bonanza to revitalize industry. This was in the latter half of the 1970s. The government changed and all that nonsense was put in its proper place (the trash). In fact things went the other way with an orgy of privatization which did do a lot to release money for the economy but eventually led to a bit of an economic hangover.
I don't think the diversification of the economy in the Netherlands was government directed - that generally ends poorly. The economic downturn simply opened up opportunities in other sectors and all the bright people had to find alternatives to businesses and jobs in the energy sector. Depriving China of advanced chips may spark an opportunity to create a chip industry in China which will not be great at first, but it will have huge market and be able to develop.
Government police in the UK was squarely behind financialization, the primacy of 'services' over 'manufacturing'. Government doesn't need to own or subsidize industries to have an industrial policy, it starts with educational policies, continues with tax policies and the provision or guarantee of credit. Instead of a sensible industrial policy you got the "Big Bang", the total liberalization of financial markets. If an industry could grow and thrive under this regime, then that's OK because its all grist to the financial mill. Anything else -- and I mean anything else (expect any industries needed for defence and maintaining civil order) that's not making the right level of profit can just go to the wall.
It's kind of strange you don't tend to hear as much in the mainstream media of the extent to which the US is throttling China's ability to buy chips - probably because it's now blindingly obvious that it has absolutely nothing to do with national security and everything to do with the US maintaining power over its closest competitor.
For the US, Huawei's death knell was when it was on track to eclipse Apple as the highest grossing company in the world. Given the state of the US Entity list now, I would actually think there are more Chinese tech companies on there than any other country in the world (in comparison), but also I would go so far as to suggest that most Chinese tech companies are on the list ....