I can't even imagine how much money EU bureaucrats will steal from the tax payer on this one.
Taiwan's government has announced a "major breakthrough" in talks with the European Union about cooperation in the semiconductor industry, which could pave the way for the island nation's chipmakers to build new plants in Europe. Reuters reported Thursday that Wang Mei-hua, Taiwan's Economy Minister, made clear in a statement …
It seems like the fabs are the only thing that makes other countries motivated to defend Taiwan. If they build such capability elsewhere, there will be a case for Germany to again ponder whether violence is an answer and do nothing, hoping China will take over swiftly and fabs will resume under a new management.
If Taiwan get's invaded, I doubt there will be much in the way of operable fab left. Certainly ASML will stop providing support for NXE (EUV lithography) systems and even with physical access to these systems there's no way in hell China will be able to build more of them on their own.
It is certainly no more likely today than it was five years ago when no one was talking about it. Heck, I would argue that if anything it is LESS likely today because China has seen how willing the west is to gang up with sanctions even when it costs their own people, how willing the US is to supply weapons to allow a country being invaded to kill the invaders, how much difficulty Russia is having making any headway despite their massive military advantage, and how hard a free people are willing to fight to prevent an autocrat from dominating them.
And unlike Russia, China isn't going to tell their people there are Nazis in Taiwan and bomb their cities into rubble. They view Taiwan's populace as misguided brothers, not an enemy whose women and children deserve to be killed and piled up in mass graves.
Now if Putin had marched in and set up a puppet government with a minimum of bloodshed like he thought he would maybe that would give Xi false hope he could do the same in Taiwan and might have increased the chance of an invasion. What Xi has seen instead is every consequence has been negative for Putin - NATO is more solid than it has been in 50 years, it will expand even closer to Moscow as previously neutral countries feel the need to protect themselves, his oligarch's financial positions have been weakened, and his country's economic growth is permanently turning negative for as long as he remains in power. Xi does not want any of those things.
One thing China does much better than the west is think and plan long term. They truly believe their system of government is the best, and will end up beating the rest of the world economically, and then Taiwan would willingly reunite. They see no need to rush things, so long as Taiwan doesn't take any steps to further its independence.
The issues between Taiwan and China seem to be just political views, talking with people in both countries I always hear that they see themselves as Asian, not two sets of fighters. Both have different political histories but they all seem to just see that as the past these days.
Remember that movie when Deckard tried to kill Roy Batty and then falls off the roof, but Batty then saves Deckard's life even though Batty is about to die ... both people are different when the government talks but Batty sees the two of them as the same and Deckard is so happy when he figures it out too. That's similar to the Asian views of each other.
So why did China deliberately overfly Taiwan this week? Have no doubts they regard Taiwan as theirs and they will do what they can to get it back CF Russia and Ukraine. Its not what YOU think its what they think and China thinks Taiwan is theirs by right.
"And unlike Russia, China isn't going to tell their people there are Nazis in Taiwan and bomb their cities into rubble. They view Taiwan's populace as misguided brothers, not an enemy whose women and children deserve to be killed and piled up in mass graves."
This is unfortunately imho at best inaccurate. The Chinese soldiers will see the Taiwanese however the CCP wants them to see the Taiwanese. When it comes to an invasion that will not be favourable. They'll be the enemy, certainly not just "misguided brothers". History tells us the Chinese war culture is a very cruel one filled with plenty of horrors against their own. Current goings on give me little reason to trust that it has changed much if at all.
The thing in Ukraine and Russian tactics is also not really that they necessarily see the populace as deserving to be killed and piled up in mass graves, they simply don't care who they are. They get in the way, or are in the wrong place (for them) and die. Russia has fallen back to WW2 era soviet doctrine, pound everything to rubble with heavy artillery, move in troops to shoot whoever is still alive, claim victory by planting a flag on the highest pile of rubble.
The source is Reuters who say: “Taiwan tells EU it will continue to be 'trusted' chip partner”
I do wonder if this a communication difference between the way the Taiwanese meant it, the English would read it, and a European reads it. Because to me, that reads very similar to “The manager continues to have the full support of the board”. Why would the EU *not* be a trusted partner? Partner in what? Taiwan certainly aren’t promising *more* than EU has got today, and the implication is that *less* is certainly at least a possibility.
Also “ Taiwan has "tried its best" to help the EU and other partners resolve a global shortage of chips.”. This to me sounds like an explosion of immense frustration. They tried their best to help you, and everything is still all messed up….so the implication is that the EU is not helping itself.
And finally the breakthrough isn’t some future deal, but rather “[Taiwan] noted that previous Taiwan-EU meetings were at the deputy level, and this one had been raised to ministerial level, calling it a major breakthrough in Taiwan-EU relations.”. Which again I would hear as a note of intense frustration that the EU had previously not been prepared to allocate even the bare minimum of politeness in relations, and a hope that maybe this minister will do better than the previous rudeness and unhelpfulness.
Take a step back, and look at the situation as it must appear to the Taiwanese. European industry has been on its knees for nearly a year due to semiconductor supply chain. And it couldn’t even find more than *deputy* to take Taiwan’s call until yesterday? What complete insanity is this? It’s the 21st century. The *day* that supply chain started being problematic, the minister should have been on Zoom to their opposite number in Taiwan to see how they could work together on this. Did the minister have anything more important to do….for a *year*? WTAF.
And then we have mini-bombshells like “ They also discussed improving market access for EU agricultural products and the investment environment for EU business in offshore wind power.” Which translates as: the EU have been using tariffs to prevent Taiwanese chips being imported to Europe, and as a quid pro quo for reducing them want the Taiwanese to buy more EU agricultural products & wind turbines. WTAF. Are companies like Volkswagen aware that the main reason they might not even *have* a business in five years, because they can’t actually make any cars they are trying to sell without those chips, is that the EU have been busy playing pissing up the wall games with Taiwan? Well, they are now….OMFG has the shit hit the fan.