Semiconductor market correction could come in 2024

The semiconductor world's continuing roaring sales growth could hit a wall in 2024, an industry research firm has predicted. IC Insights is projecting sustained semiconductor revenue growth in 2022 and 2023, with a market correction due the year after that. "2024 is currently expected to be the next cyclical downturn in the …

[Pascal Monett]

"2023/4 looks like being a rocky year for the industry"

Well duh. With all the new chip fabs in construction or being planned, that conclusion was foregone.

I said so myself.

Nice to see that the experts concur.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Re: "2023/4 looks like being a rocky year for the industry"

The glut is prophesied to be in 28nm, 2 generations ago, everybody is struggling to build the next gen fans that aren't going to be ready for 3 years.

I doubt you are going to be seeing any $99 clearance deals on Nvidia 3090 cards anytime soon

[imanidiot]

Re: "2023/4 looks like being a rocky year for the industry"

GPUs and (PC) CPUs are only a tiny fraction of the semiconductor market though.

I do suspect that the predicted "glut" of 28nm fab capacity isn't really going to happen as plenty of new products that would previously have been on 32nm and up will be taped out for this cheaper node instead, so lots of production will move into the available space. It'll help normalize pricing a bit, but I don't think it'll "crash" the market very much.

[Shalghar]

Re: "2023/4 looks like being a rocky year for the industry"

I am somewhat astonished, considering the actual issues with temperature independant clock signal generators, that underlying issues with everything needing a clock signal should have more impact.

(Sorry german only, i did not find the respective translation)

https://www.red-frequency.com/download/presse/INT-402-21P02-RedFreq-Website-Support-Presseartikel.pdf

I seem to remember that a facility for the ceramic housings for smd clock components burned down around 2 years ago but am unable to find the respective article. Maybe someone else has better search engines and/or memory.

[Anonymous Coward]

So 2023-2024 will be a good time to plan on buying a new box - a proper workstation/server class machine with at least 16-24 cores and 128GB or so of ECC memory, to be running a pure Linux-based stack this time instead of with Windows as a host OS (I don't need two Wintendo boxes, so the next machine is going to be pure as the driven snow save for relying on a proper installation of VMWare instead of an OSS VM solution.)