back to article Where on Gartner's Hype Cycle is Gartner's Hype Cycle?

Gartner is an odd fish. A very big odd fish, making some $4bn a year out of its 16,000 souls beavering away in its shiny belly. It acts as soothsayer to the troubled monarchs of industry and whichever of their courtiers can afford a subscription to its reports. The company has an admirably sustainable business model that comes …

  1. tip pc Silver badge
    Holmes

    Self serving Hype Cycles

    Maybe the Hype Cycles are just a reflection of the wacky conversations they have with their customers who think or are heavily investing in these "Activity Streams"

    1. Pascal Monett Silver badge
      Trollface

      Customers who think ?

      Does that exist ?

    2. katrinab Silver badge
      Flame

      Re: Self serving Hype Cycles

      Their customers don't think. They outsource their thinking to Gartner.

      1. HildyJ Silver badge
        Facepalm

        Re: Self serving Hype Cycles

        Their hype cycles remind me of stock market pickers. They always have a new stock to hype and if it doesn't work, don't worry, there'll be an even newer one momentarily.

      2. Cederic Silver badge

        Re: Self serving Hype Cycles

        Problem is, Gartner don't think. They replay what they're hearing from other customers.

        If you're behind the curve this can be helpful. If you want to do anything that keeps you current or gets you ahead, it's a challenge.

        Nothing quite like managers asking you, "How do we implement [Gartner buzzword]?" and have to explain that we decommissioned that two years ago because we've moved on from there.

  2. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

    The world is ready for a bit less flannel

    Sure? Not even Gartner would make a prediction like that.

    1. disgruntled yank Silver badge

      Re: The world is ready for a bit less flannel

      Surely you mean "Hats. People will be wearing more of them."

      1. Michael Wojcik Silver badge

        Re: The world is ready for a bit less flannel

        I'm wearing three right now!

  3. Potemkine! Silver badge

    AIBlockchainOps

    That's the future. Because it's magic. Buy it. Now. I've got some to sell, by pure coincidence.

    1. IGotOut Silver badge

      Re: AIBlockchainOps

      AgileAIBlockchainMLLowCodeOps if you don't mind. You are sooooo last quarter.

  4. Pascal Monett Silver badge
    Thumb Up

    "the square root of strategy"

    Oooh, that's a good one.

    1. Numen

      Re: "the square root of strategy"

      It actually is. Do the math.

      1. Field Marshal Von Krakenfart
        Boffin

        Re: "the square root of strategy"

        Answer in standard units please

        1. ryokeken

          Re: "the square root of strategy"

          How many football fields would that be? :)

  5. katrinab Silver badge
    Meh

    Even if they were kind-of right about the "personal digital assistant phones", they were probably still wrong, if that makes any sense.

    This was thought to be a three-way fight between Microsoft, Blackberry and Symbian for dominance in the sector; and none of those three won the race.

    And the technology driving it was going to be WAP and Java Applets.

    WAP, thankfully is completely dead. I guess you could argue that Java sort-of still exists, but not really the same thing that they had in mind.

    1. teebie

      I've heard a lot about WAP in the last year or two. Maybe it has a secondary meaning.

      1. katrinab Silver badge
        Alert

        This WAP was a cut-down http/html substitute

        1. monty75

          Seems to be something young people are into https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WAP_(song)

          1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

            That seems to be an unfortunate side-effect of low bandwidth mobile communication - would 5G cure that ?

            1. katrinab Silver badge
              Meh

              GPRS, + whatever chip came in the likes of the iPhone 1 and Galaxy S1 cured that.

              1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

                >Seems to be something young people are into https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WAP_(song)

                Is that the new marker of greyboeard-ness?

                If you think WAP means mobile phone pre-internet?

                Like if you know why the save icon looks like that, or why it's called a radiobutton

    2. Michael Wojcik Silver badge

      Java very much still exists. It's applets that have pretty much died off.

      You could argue that all those Android apps are more or less direct descendants of Java phone applets, though. Android is basically running a JVM and the framework, as Oracle won't stop reminding us, is basically the Java standard library.

      Android apps don't run in a browser1 but that's just because there's no longer any reason to do that; it was just a shortcut to providing a GUI that browser manufacturers adopted from HotJava and then dropped again a couple decades later.2

      So the pundits who picked WAP/WML and Applets in the early 2000s weren't wrong about that aspect of the direction commodity personal-use computing was moving, even if they didn't foresee the technological shifts. Lots of little applications and web stuff on handheld gizmos.

      1Except the ones that do, but let's ignore those, since they're written in Javascript anyway and, besides, yuck.

      2HotJava was released in '97; Oracle dropped applet support from Java in 2018 because no modern browsers supported them anymore.

  6. Howard Sway

    Where on Gartner's Hype Cycle is Gartner's Hype Cycle?

    Exactly where it's always been : in the hidden magic 5th quadrant which says "I can't believe all these mugs feel they have to keep buying this drivel in order to try and convince their bosses that they're up to date and won't miss out on the big new trend".

    1. Allonymous Coward

      Re: Where on Gartner's Hype Cycle is Gartner's Hype Cycle?

      The worst boss I ever had was a big believer in everything that came out of Gartner. I think he used it as a crutch to support his lack of knowledge and experience despite somehow having lucked into a relatively senior position.

      I still get annoyed about some of his bone-headed decisions several years later, even the ones that didn't affect me. Mostly they weren't based on Gartner analysis, but Gartner analysis was partly to blame for the thoroughly undeserved confidence in his own abilities.

  7. IGotOut Silver badge

    Need to know...

    Are IBM Watson and Oracle Cloud still the ones to onboard with?

    (I feel so dirty saying "onboard")

  8. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Historian needed?

    Well, I have an MA in History _and_ over 20 years in tech as a sysadmin and systems architect. But I don't think Gartner would hire me. That 12 years I did as a lawyer makes for the kind of heightened ethical standards that wouldn't be a "good fit" for Gartner.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Historian needed?

      They would have a fit :)

  9. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Nobody ever got fired for buying from the Magic Quadrant

    Anyone who has worked in a big organisation (big enough to afford it) knows that it's safer to do what everyone else is doing and Gartner ensures that.

  10. eswan

    Portal Ubiquity, Process Portals, Portal Fabric, Fried Portals, Boiled Portals, Barbque Portals...

    'Organic Light-Emitting Devices' shows up in 2005.

    Wonder what the obsession with portals was in '03-'04?

    1. katrinab Silver badge
      Gimp

      Re: Portal Ubiquity, Process Portals, Portal Fabric, Fried Portals, Boiled Portals, ...

      It was something to do with eyeballs and sticky. Not that sort ---->

      Or maybe it was?

    2. Roj Blake

      Re: Portal Ubiquity, Process Portals, Portal Fabric, Fried Portals, Boiled Portals...

      ...Egg and Portal, Egg Bacon and Portal, Egg Bacon Sausage and Portal, Portal Portal Sausage and Portal

      1. TimMaher Silver badge
        Pint

        Re: Portal Ubiquity, Process Portals, Portal Fabric, Fried Portals, Boiled Portals...

        How’s about just Port?

        A large bottle.

    3. Michael Wojcik Silver badge

      Re: Portal Ubiquity, Process Portals, Portal Fabric, Fried Portals, ...

      The obsession with portals was a failure to recognize that Google, Facebook (and the other social-media sites nipping at its heels), and Amazon would become the only portals that matter to the vast majority of users, to the extent that we don't even recognize that they're portals.

      Set-top boxes, "smart" TVs, and voice assistants serve as portals for a great many people. They provide a menu of services from various vendors.

      The portal concept didn't go away; it became (nearly) ubiquitous, the point where there's little reason to mention it.

      Yeah, there are plenty of folks here who avoid those portals and find stuff by other means. But we are very much in the minority. Portals worked out just fine for the winners.

  11. monty75

    It's the quantum computing

    All the predictions are held in a superposition of simultaneous plausible and implausible states. Every time they predict quantum computing will go mainstream it collapses the Gartner Probability Wave (TM) and randomly allocates their predictions to either a true or false state.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: It's the quantum computing

      Is it true quantum if it spends most of its time in a false state, as Gartner's predictions are?

      1. monty75

        Re: It's the quantum computing

        Yes and no

  12. fredblogggs

    "carrying the name of Gartner through the media with a strong whiff of broad, deep tech mastery"

    Uh, Gartner's emanations carry a whiff of something all right, but it's not any kind of tech mastery. As you've correctly pointed out, the only people who even pretend to take Gartner seriously are the CIOs who buy their mindless drivel. Most of the time I suspect they're doing so only so they can shift blame somewhere else when their big expensive projects using nonsense technology inevitably fail to deliver on the bottom line. Everyone else already knew what this article is saying: Gartner's recycled guesswork is worse than throwing darts and everyone needs to stop giving them money. Then perhaps these "analysts" would have to go find real jobs, which might possibly afford them the experience they'd need to gain technology mastery. Sitting around writing reports about what some blowhard CIO wants to waste his shareholders' money on won't do it.

  13. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Useful idiots

    I confess, I frequently use Gartner Hype Cycles (and other analyst charts) when presenting to management and execs... when they support the position I'm arguing for. It provides that little bit of "external validation" that "leadership" often needs to feel comfortable with a decision that is less than an absolute certainty.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: Useful idiots

      We've bought their stuff to present to investors to show how we are riding along on the crest of a wave into the sunny future.

      We know they are lying, the investors (unless they are total morons) know they are lying, presumably Gartner know they are lying - but we all paid up

    2. Auntie Dickspray
      Terminator

      Re: Useful idiots

      Please stop humoring them. Enough with the dumbed-down charts. Make the lazy bastards read.

      Anyone stuck with the worst of the C-Suiters (and the "C" word works best when spelled out) knows that a quick snap of their necks would help cull a useless population of obnoxious, clueless, ridiculously overpaid ladder climbers.

      Imagine never again having to endure their favorite buzzwords: Gartner, process, synergy, Agile, Six Sigma...

      I can hear the corn a-popping.

  14. Andys1

    Garner, aka The Ministry of Stating the Obvious. Many who work in public sector IT will be familiar with the vast sums of money local councils waste on this company's "insight". It's all about the emperor's new clothes.

  15. trevorde Silver badge

    Missing phase

    Tomb of Despair

    just after the 'Trough of Disillusionment', it is a pit into which hyped technologies disappear, only to reemerge a few years later in 'Technology Trigger'. Some technologies are doomed to this cycle forever eg VR, AR, quantum computing

  16. TimMaher Silver badge
    Coat

    4GL printing

    It is the same as 3D printing but uses a higher level language.

    Lego gun in the pocket.

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