back to article Nvidia exec love-bombs Arm's licensing model, almost protests too much

Nvidia has no plans to dismantle Arm's licensing-based biz model, enterprise veep and CFO Colette Kress has said, touching on one of the key concerns voiced by industry as competition regulators probe the proposed $40bn buyout. Speaking at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Brokers Call, the exec bean counter described …

  1. juice

    With a promise and a dollar...

    I can buy a cup of coffee. Maybe. Inflation and all that, you know.

    > we do promise to keep it open, keep its licensing open and make sure that our customers have the assurance of that existing business model that we will keep,” she added.

    Unless this promise is backed up by some legal guarantees - and even then, only if said guarantees are enforced, it's worth less than the time taken to write this comment.

    1. Blackjack Silver badge

      Re: With a promise and a dollar...

      I think Intel may keep the same model for a while because it does make a ton of money.

      Will they fudge things up anyway? Yes they will, just right not this year cause Corona but again is Intel so who knows?

    2. Neil Barnes Silver badge

      Re: With a promise and a dollar...

      This is exactly it. There is a difference between 'we have no plans to' or even 'we have no intent to' and 'we are making a legally binding guarantee not to, with seriously negative share-value affecting consequences if we ever, y'know, forget'.

      1. Wade Burchette

        Re: With a promise and a dollar...

        The first sentence says it all: "Nvidia has no plans to dismantle Arm's licensing-based biz model." Okay, but plans change. Last spring, I planned on buying a new video card but since it is so difficult to find one, my plans changed. A plan is a not legally binding. Considering NVidia's history, I would expect this "plan" to change as soon as they can without major uproar.

        I hope government regulators nix this purchase with extreme prejudice.

    3. big_D

      Re: With a promise and a dollar...

      Just look at Facebook and WhatsApp - we promise, will never merge the WhatsApp data into Facebook... Only, now, that is exactly what they plan to do, although the users kicked up such a stink in January and started leaving in droves that Facebook has postponed it by a couple of months.

  2. Binraider Silver badge

    Surely RISC-V forces the issue. You can't screw with ARM licensing too much, because if you do your customers will jump.

    The pain of changing architecture isn't nearly as it used to be in any case at this stage, so I do still expect some RISC-V adoption, but production capabilities for ARM and established chip designs are such that it isn't going away.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      That used to be ARM's inertia win - the only people capable of fabbing serious ARM-competing CPUs were big enough that they paid ARM bugger-all % royalties.

      Now a bunch of places will design and fab you a cutting edge CPU it doesn't make as much difference to say Amazon or Facebook if their custom processor is ARM or RISC-V RISC

      1. juice

        > Now a bunch of places will design and fab you a cutting edge CPU it doesn't make as much difference to say Amazon or Facebook if their custom processor is ARM or RISC-V RISC

        Is RISC-V really good enough to be considered "cutting edge" though?

        The last (and admittedly "single-point" comparison test I saw had RISC-V delivering around 25% of the performance of the equivalent ARM or x86 chip:

        https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/12/new-risc-v-cpu-claims-recordbreaking-performance-per-watt/

        Admittedly, it managed to do this while using a fraction of the power, and there's a lot of scenarios where that's a fair trade-off. Even (or perhaps especially) when it comes to cloud computing, since that lower power draw also reduces aircon costs, etc.

        On the other hand, Apple has just shown how much they can squeeze out of ARM's architecture, and while I doubt Apple are feeding any of their in-house improvements back to the community, I'd expect that other ARM licencees will be demanding access to similar improvements, to help keep them in shouting distance of Apple.

        (which may be something of a losing battle, since Apple has equal access to any externally-generated improvements to ARM's architecture - and they have the advantage of full vertical integration for both the hardware and the OS. But it won't stop people from trying!)

        So, yeah. I dunno. Performance per watt is important, but so too is overall performance.

        There's clearly a place in the market for RISC-V, and it's likely to keep improving and innovating. But whether or not it's going to be a significant enough competitor so as to force Nvidia to play nice? That's not something I see happening within the next few years, if not a decade!

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          >Is RISC-V really good enough to be considered "cutting edge" though?

          The API = yes. The example chip designs put out by researchers = no

          The point is that anybody that wants their own custom chip can now get it fabbed on the latest high performance nodes, without having to be a Samsung. If you are Facebook or amazon doing custom silicon then ARM is no longer the only alternate to Intel.

          ARM's business model is to charge big players 1% less for licenses than it would cost them to just make their own API design, with RISC-V the cost to switch to vs designing from scratch is lower = tighter squeeze on ARM.

          1. juice

            > The API = yes. The example chip designs put out by researchers = no

            However, if you looked at the link I provided, you'd see that the RISC-V chip in question was actually a commercial prototype.

            Micro Magic Inc.—a small electronic design firm in Sunnyvale, California—has produced a prototype CPU that is several times more efficient than world-leading competitors, while retaining reasonable raw performance.

            And even then, the the benchmark figures are definitely to be taken with a pinch of salt, as Ars had to rely on the figures supplied by the company. In fact, to quote the last section of the article:

            Micro Magic intends to offer its new RISC-V design to customers using an IP licensing model. The simplicity of the design—RISC-V requires roughly one-tenth the opcodes that modern ARM architecture does—further simplifies manufacturing concerns, since RISC-V CPU designs can be built in shuttle runs, sharing space on a wafer with other designs.

            With that said, it would be an enormous undertaking to port [...] not just the kernel, but drivers for all hardware from GPU to Wi-Fi to LTE modem, and more—third-party app developers would need to recompile their own applications for the new architecture as well.

            We're also still taking a pretty fair amount of Micro Magic's claims at face value. While we've seen a screenshot of an 8,200 CoreMark score, and we've seen a 69mW power reading, it's not entirely clear that the power reading was representative of the entire benchmark run.

            Admittedly, some of the issues mentioned above will resolve themselves as the RISC-V eco-system matures. I can see China in particular taking great interest in it, especially with the ongoing US tech embargos.

            > ARM's business model is to charge big players 1% less for licenses than it would cost them to just make their own API design, with RISC-V the cost to switch to vs designing from scratch is lower = tighter squeeze on ARM.

            Oddly, as mentioned above, that's the same model that Micro Magic Inc. appears to be going for.

            Fundamentally, a CPU cannot exist or operate in isolation; there's an entire eco-system which needs to be in place to support it, both when designing the device and when building software to run on it.

            And unless you're willing to maintain and develop that eco-system in-house, then you'll need to pay for external support [*].

            And that'll be charged at the market rate. Which as you said, will probably work out to be about 1% less than the competition...

            [*] As ever, open source is free as in speech, not beer. Any commercial company which tries to use open source as a "free as in beer" resource is going to find themselves severely disadvantaged when compared to companies which are willing to pay for support.

        2. Charlie Clark Silver badge

          On the other hand, Apple has just shown how much they can squeeze out of ARM's architecture, and while I doubt Apple are feeding any of their in-house improvements back to the community,

          Apple is a good example. At some point it might become good enough at chip design to want to everything in house but that would mean having lots and lots of chip engineers doing nothing but design chips and document their work. Difficult to see where it's going to find and train these engineers, even if the company can easily afford to do so. But tweaking existing designs and, especially, adding custom hardware is classical value adding. And there will be two-way traffic: not least when asking for support: we'd like to add a vector unit here… And a lot of the general improvements, let's say on video codecs, are solutions to general problems: Apple's entire product strategy is to buy as much as possible from the market and add value through customisation: it doesn't make memory chips, voltage regulators or even touch screens. This is why it's been more than happy to buy from its competitorts, but it makes sure it has more than one supplier. This is how many industries, including the car industry work because it's almost impossible to be optimise every step in vertical integration.

        3. Cuddles

          "The last (and admittedly "single-point" comparison test I saw had RISC-V delivering around 25% of the performance of the equivalent ARM or x86 chip:"

          I guess that's part of figuring out how much change to ARM licensing counts as too much. In the extreme case, if ARM costs 4* as much as RISC-V, only having 1/4 the performance isn't necessarily a problem. Throw in other factors like power consumption, and obviously it gets more complicated. Clearly RISC-V isn't yet a real competitor with things as they are, otherwise everyone would already be using it, but that's the big question about Nvidia - how much would it take to push customers over to RISC-V if they do start screwing around with things?

    2. Tom 7

      I think it would be worth while for a few ARM customers to get together and form an open RISC-V consortium which ensures RISC-V designs are not too far behind ARM. Sharing 20 or 30 employees, no need for that weird wait between designing and testing the thing, no need for sales or marketing wastrels, should keep NVidia on their toes During the 80's there were plenty of cases of companies spouting about vapourware to prevent others developing it, this is the safe fallback position and if someone actually wants to produce it...

      1. Tom Chiverton 1 Silver badge

        Cough. Pi Foundation investments. Cough.

      2. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        I think you're forgetting the principal-agent problem. As long as ARM is not competing with its customers than all customers have a vested interest in ARM producing as good designs as possible. ARM has a vested interest in gaining new customers and keeping existing ones happy; low licensing costs are a key part of this.

        Replacing the commercial entity ARM with a consortium is a recipe for disaster because the consortium would be the locus of competing interests, just without independent governance and the ability to determine its own goals. History is littered with quangos and talking shops like this.

        No doubt, over time, RISC-V designs will continue to gain traction, which in turn should help improve design, but for critical time-to-market stuff, it's going to be difficult to beat the ARM model.

  3. Will Godfrey Silver badge
    Unhappy

    Rather like a politician

    You know they are lying when their lips move.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Rather like a politician

      Reminding one of a certain former US president, she added: “We love their licensing model. Their open licensing model is absolutely one of the greatest licensing models out there. Our ability to take some of our technology and license through their open model is absolutely one of the great things that we can do with the overall Arm acquisition.

      "We are confident [the deal] will close, and we do promise to keep it open, keep its licensing open and make sure that our customers have the assurance of that existing business model that we will keep,” she added.

      Damm it, el Reg - even though you say it's a woman talking, all I got in my head was a mental image of lass POTUS saying those words - even with the hand movements

      1. DoctorNine

        Re: Rather like a politician

        "We totally LOVE the ARM. They are the best. The new chip thing is gonna be YUGE!"

        1. Psmo

          Re: Rather like a politician

          YUGE.grealest ?

  4. Electronics'R'Us
    Stop

    Nvidia and secrecy

    I have worked (by which I mean had a lot of painful experiences) with Nvidia parts (GPUs) for avionics displays (mission systems which can drive up to 6 video heads).

    They are intensely secretive (bespoke drivers by their preferred partners only and no source code delivered); that secrecy is institutionalised and is (well, it was) common in the GPU industry.

    I can't see that changing any time soon, if ever. Not a good match for an open licencing model.

    Then there is the fact that ARM licences designs to all and sundry, many of whom are in competition with Nvidia.

    I sense some damage control and PR going on here; other UK companies have been bought out (I know ARM is currently owned by Softbank but it is still headquartered here) where the buyers made solemn promises that parts would not be sold off, and then proceeded to do just that within months.

    Look up Cobham for an example.

    I don't think I would trust this person further than I can throw a bus.

    1. sev.monster Silver badge

      Re: Nvidia and secrecy

      And with regulatory boards by and large lacking backbone for one reason or another, unless Nvidia fsks up royally I'm sure they will get away with something like a small fine of a million dollars. A slap on the wrist compared to the billions they could make off this acquisition.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Nvidia and secrecy

        >> compared to the billions they could make off this acquisition

        this i dont understand. why is nvidia buying arm? there aren’t billions to be made with the current model. and as softbank learned, little wiggle room in that model.

        the m1 shows what an architectural license can do.

        what can’t nvidia do with an architectural license today, but buying arm gives them?

    2. IGotOut Silver badge

      Re: Nvidia and secrecy

      Cadburys.

      That is all.

      1. amanfromMars 1 Silver badge

        Re: Nvidia and secrecy

        Cadburys.

        That is all. ...... IGotOut

        And if Arm proprietary intellectual property owners retire/disappear/snuff it/change allegiance rendering the mothership rudderless and without novel progressive power, does the HP/Autonomy gambit kick in to disguise the fact that the wannabe friendly faces were in fact hostile enemy fire?

  5. sbt
    Terminator

    Methinks the lady doth protest too much

    Her comments would have been more credible if less effusive.

  6. amanfromMars 1 Silver badge

    Trust No One. The Takeover Markets are Well Known to Have Unpleasant Duplicitous Form

    Nvidia’s $40bn purchase of Arm, first confirmed in September, will need to win regulatory approval in the UK, China, and the US. Nvidia has no plans to dismantle Arm's licensing-based biz model, enterprise veep and CFO Colette Kress has said, touching on one of the key concerns voiced by industry as competition regulators probe the proposed $40bn buyout.

    If that be the case, Nvidia will have no valid objection or very good reason at all to their $40bn donation to Arm being accepted and understood worldwide by Competition and Markets Authorities and their like, as a buy-in contribution for added benefits, rather than buyout purchase incurring additional on-going costs.

    It also helps considerably in diverting those fears that executive office talk is cheap and cannot be relied upon to be honest and true and which was so spectacularly well demonstrated in the Cadbury's purchase case

    [Hat tip to IGotOut who beat me to the punch there :-)]

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