Hi W.S.Gosset, I'm the guy that queried the 49000 Aus flu deaths. Looks like article is from the Australian but it's behind a pay wall. Aus govt stats on excess deaths for 2017/2018 are way lower, flu deaths are way lower.
"max 0.5% mortality [for COVID-19] (0.1% for flu)"
So it's 5x, or 500%, as dangerous as flu except it's better at spreading, no vaccine for the vulnerable and no herd immunity so it'll rampage through the population.
So for a ballpark figure we could say that, if we did nothing, 60% of the population would get it and 0.5% die... so maybe 200,000 deaths in the UK and 234,000,000 over the world.
234 million seems high. Is my maths wrong?
200,000 seems low compared to where the UK is now... kinda like we've not done well.
My thoughts on the virus is that this isn't the 'big one'. Airborne like measles, deadly like MERS (30%?), lethal for the young like 1918 flu, mutating like the flu so vaccines have to be constantly developed each year. Society got off lightly with COVID-19.
But still, my parents are 70. Maybe a 3% chance of death? I'd really like it if they, and the people around them, would take care until we've got a vaccine.
I hope you & your loved ones stay safe, and stay well.