$500bn fewer greenbacks to be forked out on IT in 2020 due to... well, you know what

COVID-19 and its resulting economic impact has wiped a whopping $500bn off Gartner's pre-pandemic IT spending forecasts for 2020. The research group's latest calculation is that customers will fork out $3.4 trillion on tech this year, an 8 per cent decline on 2019. The decline is the result of CIOs directing budgets to …

[Doctor Syntax]

"It is worth reflecting perhaps on how little anyone knows right now. "

Societies react to pandemics in quite surprising ways. Estimate of the Black Death (late 1340s) are usually 30 - 50% of the population killed. This left a vast surplus of land and a shortage of labour. So rents fell and wages rose, OK? No. They were more or less unchanged for a generation. The Statute of Labourers was passed to hold wages down but you'd expect it to have been ineffective against market forces. This was the time of desertion of medieval villages but not because the landlords couldn't attract tenants, it was the time when landlords threw tenants out to convert to pastoralism which needed fewer people to operate. It wasn't until the peasants' revolt, triggered by the poll taxes of the late 1370s/early 1380s that things started to change.

You'd also expect the population to bounce back - the C13th had seen a substantial increase in population before the famine of the late 1310s. In fact it failed to start to recover until about 1500. Because populations are difficult to estimate before the census started estimates of when it finally recovered to 1314 levels are variable but probably not before 1600.

So good luck, Gartner with your crystal balls.

[Anonymous Coward]

I believe there is actually also evidence that forward looking landlords ignored the statutes, raised pay, and covertly attracted good workers leaving their neighbours to convert to pastoralism due to lack of labour. So what is cause and effect here is unclear.

[Anonymous Coward]

It's the coup that will crash the economy not C19

You need equipment to build a business, but to get bailout, you just need contacts to Mnuchin or Trump and to be pathetic. Sack lots of employees, threaten to sack some more, promise quid-pro-quo to Trump, bingo bailout! Churches are getting a bailout, how much tech do they buy? Nothing. How many employees do they have? Few. How much tax do they recycle into the economy? None, they're tax-exempt. There's a lot of unproductive capital like that now, worthless junk bonds with no business behind them, and thus no need for business related spending.

I don't see it getting better, they're clearly aiming for a 2nd Wave of Covid 19 at election time, followed by a coup. (DeSantis, Kemp and I think Arizona or South Dakota as the other coup state, spike the elections 'for safety' and force Justice Roberts into line to void the whole election as a result 'for safety', after that Trump won't do a handover to Pelosi).

Yeh, what I'm saying is bleak here and you don't believe me yet, even as what I'm telling you is unfolding in front of your eyes.

Over on Netflix there's Black Mirror, relatively light entertainment to restore your smile if you don't want to fix it. Go to your happy place!

Fix:

Justice Roberts might have the coup plot explained to him, by someone of authority so he can see the end game for this. He could head it off, by simply backing mail-in ballot laws to protect the elections. Trump's men have already placed their guy in the USPS, so any mail-in ballot law should also include a "drop off mail-in ballots at polling stations" provision or Trump will attack the delivery of the ballots.

You could also remind 'team-red' that they don't get the actual power, some get sacrificed as scape goats, some get to obey every whim of Jareds. The power they enjoy comes from the rule-of-law and democracy, not the actual job-title they have. Without that rule-of-law, they're unhappy middle managers with a shitty boss that changes his mind every ten seconds and blames them for each mistake.

Expose the plot: Run the coup scenario past Trump and his people and ask them to reaffirm the Constitution (they won't). Elections must happen yes/no. Power hands over to the Congress if no election yes/no. Does he plan on using USPS to block mail-in ballots yes/no. Will he step down if he loses yes/no. Ask Republican governors if they will block elections if they have too many Covid cases. Yes/No. Ask them why they're opening up with increasing infections, is it to stop the elections Yes/No. Ask them if they're planning a coup. Ask them if they're planning a coup. Ask again and again and again, if they're planning a coup. Point to each and every coup plot step, and ask them if its another step in their coup plans. Shine sunshine on the actions to disinfect them.

Repeat and enunciate the important parts of the Constitution to do with this election, over and over and over again, before the Fox News lie factory pumps out the lies. Before Sputnik/One America spews out the lies. Barr spews out the fake laws. It needs to be crystal clear in the minds of every government officer that USA is a democracy, that the Constitution forces a handover of power. Nobody gets to hold power past their time.

[Grenou]

Does anyone actually believe anything Gartner forecasts?

[sketharaman]

Yes. Gartner's forecasts about tech are generally more accurate than Imperial College of London's forecasts about epidemics.