back to article That's just Huawei it goes, shrugs founder as analysts forecast sales slump for embattled biz

Analysts are predicting a big slump in sales for Huawei thanks to the US Department of Commerce and the ongoing trade wars. But the majority of analysts are hedging their bets on exactly how big that slump will be. Most observers predict a fall in handset sales. Reuters managed to wring a figure of between 4 and 24 per cent …

  1. martinusher Silver badge

    This is what I feared would happen

    It takes a fair bit of hubris and a lack of knowledge about global supply chains to think that banning US suppliers from selling to Huawei is going to cripple that company. It will cause dislocation in sales but the overall effect may be completely different from what was expected -- its not beyond reason to see Apple as the ultimate loser, for example.

    I read a news report just today about how overseas suppliers were fleeing China for low labor cost countries such as Vietnam. Its to be expected, since a previous report noted that as China becomes more prosperous its labor costs rise so their government has been looking to higher skill, higher wage, industries for some time. (Also, don't overlook the role of automation -- you just can't manufacture a lot of things today without machines, humans are too slow, to imprecise and too variable and they can't manipulate very tiny objects economically.) This ties in nicely with things like semiconductor design and manufacture which, unfortunately, are 'our' jobs.

    The more I think about it the more I think Trump is screwing us up.....but then we knew that already.

    1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      Re: This is what I feared would happen

      The smarter you think you are the more likely it is that the law of unintended consequences is lying in wait for you. And Trump thinks he's very smart indeed. The smartest.

  2. Yes Me Silver badge
    Facepalm

    Survive and prosper

    Huawei will survive and prosper, after a few difficult years. The irony of Trump's stupidity is that it will encourage Huawei, and China generally, to become more self-dependent and more competent in some of the most critical areas of high tech. Utterly sefl-defeating.

    1. Duncan Macdonald Silver badge

      Re: Survive and prosper

      China is already trying to become self sufficient and not depend on the West. China is accepting Treasury bonds that it knows are unlikely to be repaid as a way of propping up the USA until that self sufficiency has been reached.

      The reason in my opinion that China is trying to become self sufficient is that it expects that the USA will collapse sometime in the future when the burden of paying for Social Security (pensions for people in the UK) becomes unsupportable. The US congress has spent all the money it raised in Social Security taxes and the Social Security fund now consists of a lot of IOUs. Given the fact that there are more guns than people in the US, when the pensioners can no longer get paid, the US government will have the worst type of enemy - one with nothing left to lose. The resulting conflict is likely to make the US Civil War seem tame. The resulting economic collapse will also sink most of the other countries in the world.

      (Look at the US Debt Clock - https://www.usdebtclock.org/ - to see why the US is in an untenable financial position - especially the US National Debt and the US Unfunded Liabilities numbers.)

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Survive and prosper

      It's all bullshit anyway, idiots in the press writing about Huawei's demise are just embarrassing themselves.

      NOBODY USES SINGLE SOURCE SUPPLY CHAIN

      This has been brewing long enough that Huawei have already looked at their already existing multiple supplier supply chain and worked out any risks, and have added alternative supply sources. How do I know this? I have dealings with Huawei and know enough of their supply chain and production planning systems to know they will be just fine. I guess BBC's Dave Lee and more will carry on making bullshit news stories based on speculation, and the churnalists will copy and paste that and the bullshit will carry on flowing like it always does however...

      1. Chet Mannly

        Re: Survive and prosper

        True AC - the article says they have been using 50% of their own chips anyway, so all they have to do is expand their plant.

        I'm sure the Chinese government will help them out - China does not lack for resources!

  3. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

    "Trump has recently changed from describing Huawei as very dangerous to saying it could be included in a future trade deal."

    So just how dangerous was it? Not that his fans will notice any inconsistency.

    1. martinusher Silver badge

      >So just how dangerous was it?

      Trump, like all Presidents, only has the authority to act as he's doing only when there's a national emergency. This is why everything is a matter of national security or a national emergency. Congress should have brought him up short by now but there are two problems, one being a compliant Senate and the other being a significant number of our representatives are into China bashing, they were weaned on the Cold War so can't conceive of any other way of carrying on as a nation. (Yet another reason why the government is out of step with a very large chunk of the people....)

  4. Rainer

    But Meng is using an iPhone

    She was arrested with one (and an iPad, IIRC).

  5. Rainer
    Mushroom

    Trump is just an accelerator

    The US has been on a slow decline since quite some time (80s maybe?), with its influence and power slowly waining away.

    All Trump has done is to accelerate that process.

    The outcome was always inevitable.

    The upside is that we can actually sit here and watch history unfold now, instead of in a decade or two or however long it might have lasted.

    1. VikiAi
      Happy

      Re: Trump is just an accelerator

      So a bit like the last two seasons of 'Thrones, then.

  6. Barry Rueger

    Optimistic option!

    I truly hope that Huawei actually launches a new smartphone OS. It would have to be a significant improvement over the mess that is Android.

    A more serious question though is about Huawei's patents. If US companies are barred from doing business with Huawei, does that also prevent them from using those patented ideas in their own designs? Or, in other words, will they be forced to design American 5G from scratch?

    I suppose the USians could just revert back to CDMA...

    1. _LC_ Silver badge
      Thumb Up

      Re: Optimistic option!

      "I truly hope that Huawei actually launches a new smartphone OS. It would have to be a significant improvement over the mess that is Android."

      ۜ\(סּںסּَ` )/ۜ

    2. Colin Ritman
      FAIL

      Re: Optimistic option!

      mess that is Android?

      How so? It's the worlds most common operating system, and despite that, it's got a very good track record in terms of security. Take 2019 for example. iOS has 5x more vulnerabilities, and it's closed source, so god knows what other problems are lurking there to be discovered. Android's opensource code means problems are found earlier and fixed earlier.

      Cite:

      IOS (155, 25 critical)

      https://www.cvedetails.com/vulnerability-list.php?vendor_id=49&product_id=15556&version_id=&page=1&hasexp=0&opdos=0&opec=0&opov=0&opcsrf=0&opgpriv=0&opsqli=0&opxss=0&opdirt=0&opmemc=0&ophttprs=0&opbyp=0&opfileinc=0&opginf=0&cvssscoremin=0&cvssscoremax=0&year=2019&month=0&cweid=0&order=3&trc=155&sha=9268e05c272522ad7ffb4839270cfc837249a395

      Android (31, 9 critical)

      https://www.cvedetails.com/vulnerability-list.php?vendor_id=1224&product_id=19997&version_id=&page=1&hasexp=0&opdos=0&opec=0&opov=0&opcsrf=0&opgpriv=0&opsqli=0&opxss=0&opdirt=0&opmemc=0&ophttprs=0&opbyp=0&opfileinc=0&opginf=0&cvssscoremin=0&cvssscoremax=0&year=2019&month=0&cweid=0&order=3&trc=31&sha=65688f66fb2607f9ebc84c1102561ceeaf53d8e3

      Sorry if this doesn't fit the agenda, but I only works with facts, and don't really let myself get brainwashed by hidden press agendas..

      1. Irongut Silver badge

        Re: Optimistic option!

        Android's open source credentials are a straw man when so much is in Google Play Services and the Google APIs rather than AOSP. If it were truly open source then Huawei wouldn't have as many problems with Trumpy's orders.

      2. Barry Rueger

        Re: Optimistic option!

        I wasn't talking about security, especially since I have no control over whether Google, the manufacturer, or my carrier ever delivers another update.

        I was talking about a labyrinthIan user interface, that changes significantly with every major update, and from one phone to another, or manufacturer to another. I was talking about Google in particular disabling features or capacities with no concern for users or developers who rely on them. I was talking about the sheer madness of trying to control the torrent of beeps, rings, vibrations, banners, badges and other things that are all turned on by default. I was talking about default settings that disable apps that worked fine a week ago; that are hidden three, four, or five levels down into settings.

        It's a mess, and if it weren't for my sheer dislike of Apple OS, and their prices, I would abandon Android in a very short moment.

        I've spent two weeks with a new phone (a Huawei running pie) trying to find an app that will reliably record a GPS track while hiking, and allow me to save it to my device, along with a couple notes. This was easy on my last phone, but nearly impossible on this one. Things like this should not happen.

        Not should things like Google arbitrarily shutting out any App that will let me record my own phone calls - an entirely legal, and for a writer doing interviews, critical tool.

        Android deserves to die.

        1. _LC_ Silver badge

          Re: Optimistic option!

          "I've spent two weeks with a new phone (a Huawei running pie) trying to find an app that will reliably record a GPS track while hiking, and allow me to save it to my device, along with a couple notes."

          Try OSMand. But - make sure to watch a tutorial before or go through a learning phase, as it's far from intuitive to use. Still, it's the best navigation tool. It's free, open-source and allows you to download complete offline maps for the entire globe. It can also handle tracking.

          1. This post has been deleted by its author

        2. Colin Ritman

          Re: Optimistic option!

          You truly are a bellend. You totally have control. If you want apple like monthly updates, buy a pixel, if you want shit support buy a Samsung.

          You gripe is not with Google or Android, but with whatever OEM you decided to use. Perhaps you need to look past glossy adverts if what you actually care about is support

        3. Chet Mannly

          Re: Optimistic option!

          Not sure what you are on about Barry.

          - which features have been disabled by Google? None that have affected me.

          - You can switch offl notifications from apps quite easily from the notification pane - just swipe left on the notification you don't want and the settings icon is right there. Couldn't be easier

          - again I haven't had a single app disabled by default settings...

          - there are heaps of apps to track GPS while hiking. The one I use is alltrails, but it's by no means the only one out there

          - choose a call recording app from another app store if Google play doesn't have it. Often these things are blocked by local regulations.

      3. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Optimistic option!

        Don't you just love it when someone knocks the FUD away with facts. Suddenly the idiots have nothing to come back with, and move on to commenting on a different story with their "expert" un-cited opinions..

      4. gnasher729 Silver badge

        Re: Optimistic option!

        The same site gives me > 2,000 vulnerabilities for Android, and > 1,600 vulnerabilites for iOS. Checking your links, I just scanned the first page quickly, and there is not a single vulnerability against the current iOS version.

        1. _LC_ Silver badge
          FAIL

          Re: Optimistic option!

          In addition, it has to be noted that Android’s “Media-Framework” appears to be continuously vulnerable and easy to exploit.

    3. Chet Mannly

      Re: Optimistic option!

      Well Barry Huawei don't have to create a new OS - they can keep using the open-source android (AOSP). All they really have to do is replace all the closed-source Google stuff - Google play services, play store etc. Which shouldn't be that hard, as they already have their own app store, location services, voice assistant, search, etc on their current phones (I own one).

      So they could release a google-less android phone without a huge amount of difficulty.

      Actually a google-less phone has some appeal...

  7. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I am worried that Trump might actually push China into a nothing more to lose corner and take the opportunity to invade Taiwan. That would put most of the worlds high end consumer chip fab capacity under Chinese control

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      They won't invade Taiwan. They will buy it.

      Many of the largest Taiwanese companies manufacture on the mainland. Without China, Taiwan is a much shrunken economy.

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