Half the world warned 'Chinese space station will fall on you' If you read the New Zealand Herald, you're (a) probably a Kiwi, and (b) building a bunker because you expect a Chinese space station to drop on your head. Or you could be a Newsweek reader, in which case you're digging bunkers because it's going to drop on your head, not some Kiwi's. If you're in Western Australia, you're …
I was going to say, flippantly, that since the history books tell us that Vitalstatistix lived between 100BCE and 0CE, the eminent Gaul wins this battle. Then, unwisely and uncharacteristically, I did a very minor bit of research and discovered that variants of the Chicken Licken story go back 25 centuries.
So perhaps Vitalstatistix hasn’t roasted and stuffed the bird after all.
For some reason this has reminded me of an occasion in the early 90s, leaving the arena of a music festival in a several thousand strong throng of revellers in various states of intoxication. One particularly inebriated young chap suddenly decided to serenade a WPC with the unforgettable verse:
All my life I've been lickin'
Your fanny lips cause they taste like chicken
Oh boy
Ahh.... what a time to be alive that was... nostalgia sure ain't what it used to be... etc, etc.
It's not just the NZ Herald, there was also some American rag (edit: I guess it was probably Newsweek) claiming that it was going to "land" on them. And no doubt several others that I didn't see.
Its orbital inclination is 42.75°. A lot of the world's population lives between 42.75°N and 42.75°S, so there should be plenty of "please let it fall on us!" articles from everywhere.
Thank you once again Reg for not being idiots about it, like "everyone else."
No you cant sell it, it still is owned by the Chinese govt. However, under international treaties (and we know how much China loves treaties). The country that launches an object into space, and the country it is launched from are responsible for any damages caused so you can sue China for any damage it causes.
So that fine chunking pumpkin or award winning roses that gets smashed to bits you can try and collect.
Hit the US?
Where are all those AEGIS missiles when you actually need them? Oh forgot, they are just for show and pork transfusions.
The only way to minimize the chance of a large chunk landing on someone's head is to whack it right now. It is under the altitude of all satellites so disintegrating it will only do good at this point.
"The only way to minimize the chance of a large chunk landing on someone's head is to whack it right now. It is under the altitude of all satellites so disintegrating it will only do good at this point."
Yes! The best thing to do to avoid a big piece of metal hitting people is to blow it up, so that lots of smaller pieces of metal can hit them instead.
Good thinking batman! Trump has a job for you.
Easy solution - hit it over the ocean (ship-borne missile or as it is entering the ocean. For each resulting piece, surface area:mass ratio massively increases, the deceleration due to air resistance becomes a major factor and it falls out of the sky in the safest area possible.
If used as a missile test, then it wouldn't even cost as much as you might think (means you don't need to do separate test launches - assuming that one would be needed at some point)
> Yes! The best thing to do to avoid a big piece of metal hitting people is to blow it up, so that lots of smaller pieces of metal can hit them instead.
The theory is: Small bits are likely to be vaporized by the heat of re-entry, and/or slow down more since they have a big area-to-mass ratio. Big bits of metal might survive re-entry, with just the outer layer melted off, and can hit at high speed since they have a small area-to-mass ratio.
However, I'm not sure about this cunning plan...
so that lots of smaller pieces of metal can hit them instead.
The smaller pieces at that speed will simply burn up in the atmosphere.
A random shaped piece up to 1kg in size has practically zero chance to survive re-entry. A piece > 100kg coming in at Earth orbital velocity has a significant chance of reaching the surface. Something approaching a ton will pretty much hit the ground unless it breaks up in-flight.
So whacking it with one of the precious "mid-course" interceptors - the ones that miss 10 out of 10 is the only chance of making sure it does not hit someone on the head.
This is something which is possessed by 3 nations - USA (demonstrated), China (demonstrated) and Russia. Russia except bits of Caucasus is outside the impact zone so it is giggling and twiddling its thumbs. China is being Chinese. That leaves the USA to do the job. I am surprised they have not done it so far purely for show-off purposes.
The Chinese are deathly afraid that it will land in the US, because then they'll be forced to pay tariffs on the steel and aluminium content. And Trump will feel vindicated, taking to Twatter to announce an easy victory and the security of American jobs, fine American jobs, the best jobs, the big jobs.
I doubt we have a missile that can do much to it. The US have used an SM3 to kill a malfunctioning satellite, but that is a big box of bits. This space station is basically a big empty tube. So a small warhead designed to fragment and hit anything it gets near to, is just going to make holes in it. Like shooting a big rubbish bin with a shotgun. It'll let the air out, if the thing's still pressurised, but might not do much more.
The Chinese have also blown up a satellite. But the bigger the warhead you carry the smaller or slower your SAM is going to be. So as you don't need a big warhead at those speeds, you're unlikely to want to design a SAM that needs to be the size of an ICBM in order to lift its own warhead.
I doubt we have a missile that can do much to it. The US have used an SM3 to kill a malfunctioning satellite, but that is a big box of bits. This space station is basically a big empty tube.
mv2. While chinese and russian interceptors have warheads and are proximity based, USA does not. It is a direct impactor. Depending on trajectory you are looking at impacting with several kg at an intercept velocity in the km/s range. The energy release is equivalent to a small nuke. There will be nothing left regardless of its shape or size. If it hits. That is the key issue with direct impactors - they have to hit which is not easy if the relative velocities of the impactor and the target can exceed 12km/s (that is what you get for a best case intercept scenario).
Assuming the best case of a head on impact the energy released is the kinetic energy of the impactor plus a equal amount of kinetic energy of the target. So as you say mV^2 of the impactor. The impactor is launched with a rocket and according to the rocket equation only a very small part of the rockets energy ends up in the payload so we are in the realms of very very much less than a small nuke. Also when the impactor hits sufficient mass to release the energy in the large relatively empty volume of the target that piece of the target is going to go from orbital velocity to zero and get very hot, however the bulk of the target is not going to get hit so will be moving away from the impact zone unscathed at orbital velocity. The solution is to vaporize the impactor just before the impact so that its cross sectional area matches that of the target so all the energy is released. The chances of getting this exactly right at opposing orbital velocities are slim and a partial impact would be a good result with the most likely scenario being that big bits of the target would survive. Whilst an impactor would kill the target it's not going to stop it coming down.
according to the rocket equation
What f***ing equation?
Orbital velocity by the station remnant - 8km/s. ~50-70% of orbital velocity by the interceptor - they do not reach full 8km/s. If you are lucky and you manage to match them perfectly head on - 12km/s relative. If not - you are still looking at > 8km/s. How much energy did the rocket expand is irrelevant. What is relevant is what speed did it reach relative to the target.
Let's assume 10kg (it is more) and we get a nice rounded number of 1.44 TeraJoules. One Kiloton is 4.88 Joules. So we are looking a nearly 300 tons of TNT equivalent. Even if it was just hitting at 8km/s you are still looking at > 100 tons equivalent.
There will be NOTHING left from the station if it hits. The "if it hits" is the big if - they do not have a very stellar record.
If so, we are going to need payment on a 10%-25% tariff before any pieces can land in these United States.
(If other Regenistas insist that it is made with Chinese "aluminium", then I guess Britain has to split the tariff with China. That has something to do with Limeys inflicting extraneous vowels on their American cousins.)
"That has something to do with Limeys inflicting extraneous vowels on their American cousins"
Surely, it's only an extraneous vowel if it isn't pronounced - and we do.
Note: I hope the sound sample on that page pronounces it correctly. I didn't bother checking - but the phonetic version is correct, so probably. ;)
"(If other Regenistas insist that it is made with Chinese "aluminium", then I guess Britain has to split the tariff with China. That has something to do with Limeys inflicting extraneous vowels on their American cousins.)"
That can't be right. How is it fair that the Limeys get to pay the Chinese aluminium tariff ON TOP of the antti-trust vowel tariff enacted to stop British vowel-dumping practices in general and the Hollywood villain monopoly in particular?
Never mind, Brexit will fix it. Brexit fixes everything.
Since people are actually relatively concerned that some larger parts of this space station could hit the Earths surface and do a bit of damage, why doesnt China, once the space stations a bit lower (i.e. in at a height that is guaranteed to de-orbit within a year) hit it with one of those same missiles with which they created a great bloody space mess a few years back (by shooting one of their failed satellites and leaving a great debris cloud strewn across an entire orbit).
Done right, you would hope thedestroyed space station would then have no large parts to reach the surface and cause damage and whilst this would create another great bloody space mess (TM), it would be at such a low altitude all pieces would de-orbit within a year.
They have the tech and I'm sure they wouldnt mind an excuse to test it again... And everyone underneath the predicted path can stop building bunkers. Win-win!
"This thing should never have been allowed to be on an uncontrolled re-entry trajectory in the first place."
Given that the owners lost control of it and presuming this wasn't intended, "allowed" doesn't seem relevant. The situation is what it is, not what it ought to be.
@dr. Syntax,
As said by Not Spartacus, the thing spent over 2 years circling the earth under control before communications were lost. Probably China was testing the longevity and reliability of it's control and comms systems, but it's still a very long time to allow something of this size to keep orbiting without some plans in place to get it back onto the planet in a somewhat predictable fashion.
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"possible presence of Hydrazine on wreckage"
Which is why you send the French Foreign Legion to dig broken Ariane Fives out of swamps and not people you care about... (There are photos of this and some of the kit we have that was recovered from said swamp still shows traces of hydrazine nearly 20 years later and despite many thorough cleanings)
More seriously: Radioactive substances can be detected and avoided from a distance thanks to their radioactivity. Chemical poisons are the gift which keeps on giving.
"I would not do it if I was you. Some of the experiments they ran on it used radioactive isotopes."
Hiroshima's bomb used about 400kg of uranium. 0.7g was converted into energy, the rest vaporised and blew away on the breeze (not to mention all that crud that ended up downwind of the USA atmospheric tests that also vastly outmasses whatever would be on that space station.)
There are radioactive isotopes on the breeze all the time, especially so if you're downwind of a coal-fired power station and less so downwind of nuclear ones.
Reply Icon
Re: I live in the northern US
I would not do it if I was you. Some of the experiments they ran on it used radioactive isotopes.
While it is not likely to provide us with any Andromeda Strain fun, it definitely needs some professional handling (even if ends on Ebay).
SO it goes on Craigslist then ......................................
In September 2011 it was a US satellite coming down, and I blogged about it:
"A NASA satellite is crashing to earth, out of control. Noone knows where it will land, but the chattering classes have been speculating on the risk of humans getting hit by it.
I just heard Prof. David Spiegelhalter on the wireless telling us the risk of getting hit was similar to the chance of 44 consecutive Heads on tossing a fair coin.
The Stoppard fans among us know that 44 times is nothing. Do we need to resort to an Infinite Improbability Drive?"
@ArrZarr
It's the kernel of truth, exaggerated to "LIKELY TO HIT NORTHERN U.S. STATES" (Newsweek) and "it's going to drop on /your/ head" (El Reg) that makes it fake news. The real facts that the odds are minimal and the US only one of many countries in a wide area are then placed well down the article (below the fold). Unreported, very few outside national space agencies would notice, and only a minority reading the article today will remember in a month. The release could easily wait until the track was better known. The nudge towards anti-China sentiment as tariffs are imposed is classic MiniTru output.
Regrettably, we are unable to further process your claim for damage to your 2008 Tesla Roadster.
As the owner of the other vehicle has submitted evidence that it was unoccupied at the time of the collision, we must agree with their assertion that you were the driver at fault. Further, it would appear that the subsequent damage to the other vehicle is a direct consequence of the collision.
Our assessors have estimated the damage to the other vehicle as irreparable. The list price of a 2011 Tiangong, at $xxx,xxx,xxx.xx, is in excess of the limits of your public liability policy. Please find attached a copy of the letter we have received from the legal representatives of the vehicle's owner, CNSA Ltd.
Can we take this opportunity to remind you of our discounted rates on life insurance?
Kind regards,
"Space Hulk(TM)"
That sounds like one of those obscure variants of the Incredible Hulk that comic book nerds go on about.
(Space Hulk was first introduced in The Incredible Hulk #8329 (DC Comics, 31 September 1978) when the Blue-Haired Bruce Banner (AKA The Giraffe Hulk (#)) tore a hole between the Eldritch Reality and the continuity in which the Netherlands won the Second World War. This spawned a new Turquoise-Haired Bruce Banner who turned into the Space Hulk. Space Hulk was trapped in the Everyone-Now-Speaks-Dutch reality when Batman, Dennis the Menace and Gnasher sealed the hole in the time continuum. Every geek worth their salt knows this off the top of their head, of course.)
(#) Blue-Haired Bruce/Giraffe Hulk was- of course- not related to the original Bruce Banner, but a teenage girl from the Planet Mutis that old-school Bruce Banner roped in to being the New Hulk after he got bored of being Old Hulk and decided to become a teaching assistant instead. (See The Dandy, 29 February 1949, "Korky the Cat"). She disappeared due to a spell cast by the Evil Wizard incarnation of Spider Man (from the Everyone Drinks Irn Bru Reality), and also because the novelty wore off and Marvel had to bring back Old Hulk to get 12 year olds buying the comic again. (But with a Malibu Stacey hat.)
is my tiny umbrella and I'll be fine.
It's too bad that as a final mission objective, these things aren't setup with cordite to blow the seams apart as they hit the upper atmosphere.
Still, on the bright side, 2/3++ of the "splash zone" is ocean.
I wonder if the chinese would allow it to be used as a target for tests of a Laser Broom
"It's too bad that as a final mission objective, these things aren't setup with cordite to blow the seams apart as they hit the upper atmosphere."
It's risky enough as it is being stuck in a tinfoil thick space station in orbit where things can go wrong without adding explosives to the mix. I wonder if anyone has done any research on the stability of explosives in space? All that rapid heating and cooling over a very wide temperature range every 90 minutes or so can't be good.
@John Brown, since ICBMs with warheads containing explosives exist and plentiful research has been done on full orbital and fractional orbital weapons systems (that stay in space for extended duration) I think there is plenty of research on the matter. I doubt ANY of it is publicly available though.
There's a nice picture on the Interweb showing the Earth with the entire side more or less pure Pacific Ocean, plus on minus the camera not being infinitely far away and thus being ever so slightly misleading.
So nearly 50% odds it'll go splash in the Pacific. Plus, rumors indicate that there may be some additional oceans on the other side. Gotta be about 65% wet in total in that latitude band.
So, most likely it'll just disappear while nobody is looking.
Good luck to those in the At Risk latitude band.
Oceans are not empty; large container ships and tankers ply them, laden down with Chinese goods, fuel oil, grain or rubber ducks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moby-Duck
These slow-moving vessels (the ships, not the ducks) are so massive that they burn the waste oil from your car's engine, and residual refinery sludge. Sixteen of them create as much air pollution as all the cars in the world, yet the World Trade Organisation holds that this pollution is not to be attributed to any nation, while the International Maritime Organisation points to the poverty of flag of convenience nations. These ships do not dodge well.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1229857/How-16-ships-create-pollution-cars-world.html
Also many oil and gas platforms would be on the route, even less portable.
Call me stupid, but what prevents the UN (or whoever oversees international space treaties) demanding that China either sends up another spacecraft (or contracts another space agency, or, hello, SpaceX, to do so) to get alongside the space station, grab ahold of it, and then steer both craft into a planned safe de-orbit path?
I realise that there would probably be some hard calculations involved, but we have managed it before whenever spacecraft rendezvous and dock, and we did manage to get Apollo 13 safely back home after all!
"Call me stupid, but what prevents the UN (or whoever oversees international space treaties)....etc"
Reality?
The calculations are not the problem; I could do them quite easily with a pocket calculator. The problem is that what you describe is completely impossible with existing technology. There's a bit of a difference between a carefully planned launch and dock, and creating in a few weeks a currently nonexistent spacecraft with a robot grabber system, then delivering it to the right point with zero delta-v.
A bit harsh methinks.
Actually I did wonder what CNSS would do if someone were to hypothetically "borrow" it for an experiment. Say around the end of March.
It would still burn up but minus some handy components like some of the solar panels, etc.
They still work but the batteries are toast from what I can make out.
Would it be classed as piracy, theft, or something else?
(note: all data would be sent back via 11.025 GHz so technically it coud be called research)
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