Re: My point being...
Yes, he is long and needs more suckers to jump on the train.
I would recommend you sell as soon as your stocks vest.
Here is why, the cratering cash flow is a good indicator that customers and business is being bought with cash. Speculation: Your company discounts way below profitability and books the minus in sales&marketing as expenses of acquiring customers and revenue. This happens under the assumption that existing customers are going to generate follow up revenue and that it is much cheaper to sell to an existing customer than a new one (which is true). There is plenty of easy cash sloshing around, so this will go on for a while.
Here lies the crux, your price/benefit ratio has to be aligned with the market and currently it is not. Nutanix is $20-25k per node. Plus Calm, plus Xi, plus Turbo.
VxRail is $8k with VSOM/vCloud (which are years ahead of Calm).
HyperFlex is $8k with Iaas/CC (which are also years ahead).
In both cases way more R&D and WAY more acquisitions than your R&D budget. Plus gigantic adjacent business unit that help with products and integration.
This whole theater will continue until the next IDC report where Nutanix will have a strong showing of 30-45% YoY. At the same time Cisco and HPE (yes, HP. You read it here first) will jointly have more marketshare than Nutanix, or be close enough for discomfort.
Your growth is 84% 2016, 72% 2017, but the current quarter yoy is only 55%. Ouch!! What happened? Maybe just a glitch or pushed deals that will rain next quarter? Maybe.
Or HPE and Cisco are charging through your deals like two elephant bulls. They are in many cases "good enough" or even better/faster but definitely A LOT cheaper than you. SimpliVity and HyperFlex are growing 200%+ and show no signs of slowing and are more likely to sustain this momentum as their salesforce finally learns to position the product. It sure does take them a while.
By the end of this year they will arrive at 30% market share with a growth momentum of 100%, Nutanix will be at or below 30% with growth momentum of 30%. That's where the easy money dries up and only one path forward remains:
But don't worry, remember that $500m loan? Dheeraj and his buddies pocketed half of that in cash. Exec bonuses, you surely understand. When the till runs dry again they will issue stock, which will fall, and then fall again once it becomes clear what's happening. and your options, RSU, or EPP stock will suddenly be much much less worth.
Still, if you haven't sold by then, do it. It won't get better from there.
All the best, buddy.