Brexit? No impact at all, chuckles reseller juggernaut The storm clouds Softcat pointed to gathering over the industry in the months prior to the EU referendum didn’t rain on the firm’s parade after all, judging by financial results outlined to the City today. The mid-market reseller said in the spring that business confidence could be dented by political uncertainty, but as it …
Given it is sadly impossible to can the idea, I am very pleased that they are at least taking some time to actually prepare rather than just invoking it immediately with no thought.
I am pleased this firm is doing well, but of course we haven't left yet. I still hope they do well after that, but it's a little early to declare that all the Brexit warnings were fallacy, when we're still in the darn thing.
It is entirely possible to not start Brexit ever, or even cancel the exit within 2 years of invoking article 50. The referendum told the government what the people thought, but the government has never cared about what we thought before, didn't make the result of the referendum binding on themselves, and continue to ignore every single one of us unless we happen to agree with what they want to do anyway.
Well Marg- Sorry - May has announced her intention to trigger article 50 in April 2017, at least.
Really its the opposition that is currently damaging the market, because they're keeping us in a state of uncertainty.
Regardless, the drop in value of the pound has been a boon to UK exporters, because now countries can actually afford to buy from us. IIRC, the British Pound has been known as quite possibly the most overvalued currency in the world, for quite some time.
It did leave a rather large dent in my pocket on my 10 day trip to the states, though.
P.S., in response to "taking time to plan it", triggering article 50 triggers a two year process of negotiations and planning. There is absolutely no way you can "rush" into exiting the EU. Can you honestly tell me this brief lag period between the referendum and triggering of the article has been full of legitimate efforts to plan our future outside of the EU, or negotiate trade deals? We can't even start negotiations until its officially triggered. Right now we're getting a load of bluff because they're trying to scare us into not triggering it at all.
Even comrade Corbyn urged us to trigger article 50 immediately.
Leaving is sounding easier and easier as the EU tries to play hard ball but has little to negotiate with. Access to the single market would be good but not if they cancel out the benefits with their bad ones. Didnt the Spanish recently realise that all this bluster of no deal without freedom of movement seemed to ignore the Canada deal they are making? With the vast hodgepodge of treaties they do have it wouldnt be difficult to do a good one for us, unless they want to be bloody minded.
I do laugh when they shout its hard brexit or nothing and not agreeing to anything unless we do what they want as it isnt a card with any value. If we leave we are better off. The recent doom news about inflation of 1% ignores the problem since the crash of trying to get inflation so we dont end up deflating like parts of the Eurozone. As with the fall in currency being exactly what had been called on before the referendum the good is being reported as bad as if they claim black is white.
Would that be the same Canada-Europe trade deal that has taken about 7 years to negotiate and is currently being held up by Belgium?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37688942
I'm not convinced that leaving is a good idea, but what really worries me is that nothing will be sorted out within the 2 year period...
@ Can't think of anything witty...
"Would that be the same Canada-Europe trade deal that has taken about 7 years to negotiate and is currently being held up by Belgium?"
Pointing out how slow Europe is at trade negotiations while they insist we cannot make any on our own while part of their cartel does not really sound like an argument in their favour. Hell even after 2 years of leaving negotiations we could still end up with a trade deal with China before the EU.
"I'm not convinced that leaving is a good idea, but what really worries me is that nothing will be sorted out within the 2 year period..."
The EU do seem to be making this easier though. They are insisting on a hard brexit and then begging us to change our minds. Things quickly turned from 'you cant possibly stay now' to 'we will allow you to change your mind' very swiftly as our prospects for leaving went from an insignificant little England to a world popular UK. If the EU is so incapable (or hate us so much as to be obstructive) of a hard brexit in 2 years then it wont do them any favours.
lol, of course it has been slow for the EU and Canada to agree to CETA - it is full of terms that no one wants, so the negotiating parties keep having to, err, negotiate.
It'll be much quicker if Canada wants a "CETA" with the UK, because the UK will just say "YES, YES, YES!" and damn the consequences. It's what we do with trade deals. I heard some of our best and brightest Tories were the ones pushing hardest for getting the EU to sign TTIP, although I hope I heard wrong on this.
The govt will probably even have the gall a few years later to talk on the tellybox about how totally unfair it is that we can now be sued by any opencast miner or rubbish incinerator that we withhold planning permission from. They'll then hope that no one remembers them doing the deal and launch one of their lovely, speedy "inquiries", which will provide no conclusions or way out of the mess. That's the way things normally work around here, isn't it?
@CodeJunky:
OR trade deals are really hard and time consuming to negotiate.
i'm not picking on the Canadians here, but they have been talking to India since 2010 and still not got a deal arranged (http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/india-inde/index.aspx?lang=eng)
they spoke to Singapore for 8 years before reaching an impasse (http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/singapore-singapour/index.aspx?lang=eng)
and they have been speaking to Japan since 2012 to see if there is some way that they can work together (http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/japan-japon/index.aspx?lang=eng)
These are all countries that we would want to deal with.
Perhaps negotiating international trade deals is harder than it appears? Its a good job we have many skilled negotiators to call on and fight our corner, right?
hmmm...
@ Can't think of anything witty...
"OR trade deals are really hard and time consuming to negotiate."
Plausible. So the EU is geared up to be able to make better trade deals due to its size etc. Iceland abandoned its EU integration and got a trade deal with China. The EU has yet to do so. China has also expressed interest in doing a trade deal with us. The US trade deal probably wont be achieved by the time Obama leaves and the possible replacements are anti trade. Amusingly we could potentially have trade deals before the EU gets it and that is after 2 years of getting out of the EU.
"These are all countries that we would want to deal with."
Them and the queue of countries already wanting a trade deal with us as soon as we get out. In fact we have been offered negotiators from our allies to help negotiate our exit from the EU. And of course the EU changed its tune quickly when they realised brexit != doom for us.
"Perhaps negotiating international trade deals is harder than it appears? Its a good job we have many skilled negotiators to call on and fight our corner, right?"
This is an interesting issue. We dont have many negotiators so we shouldnt bother. Except we want to train people in various skills especially in areas that will have demand. Being in the EU neutered our negotiating options but brexit encourages them. And if we accept help from our allies we have people with real world experience in our corner with our negotiators. And our negotiations would work quicker than the EU as it must accommodate all its members (of the cartel) while we look after only our own.
Isn't that for goods only?
We could get the same by not leaving the European Customs union, and we'd not have the 7 year haggle and the surrender of sovereignty.
(That would leave us in the same status as Turkey).
Of course not being able to sell our services while being able to buy goods would be more of a benefit to the rest of the EU than us.
However they will have to do something like that in the case of a hard brexit, unless Mrs May's promise of no Irish border meant that the UK is being broken up.
"Isn't that for goods only?"
Maybe, I don't know huge amounts about that detail of it, I'm just using the bad bits of it as an example of what govts are being pressured to give up when it comes to "modern" trade deals.
If we put ourselves in a position where we /need/ to sign one rather than being able to look at it objectively as an eventual replacement for something which is currently in, ok and working, then we will not be able to bargain as hard as we would like, and will have to accept the other party's terms.
Leaving is sounding stupider and stupider as the facts come out (like the UK has no negotiating cards, and 5% of its GDP will vanish). Not that these are new facts; they are simply facts that the Brexit liars chose to deny until it became impossible. Staying in is sounding easier and easier.
I think Geraint Davies is my new political hero, after reading the recent petition debate.
It'll be a joy to observe the steep fall of the Brits.
First, the UK will be broken into Little Britain, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Except for Little Britain, the others will join the EU in record pace.
Then, Little Britain will become the bitch of the EU where they'll have to beg for every deal.
Then, the pale-faced freckled gingers will beg to join the EU again.
And we'll let them join, for we have no grudge against Don Quichotte. It's just a bit slow. Like their King. Or Boris. Or well, you get the picture!
We love you, funny challenged fish-and-chips eaters!
Great to see Softcat performing well but keeping feet on the ground is a pre-requisite of future sustained growth. Post IPO, certainly in the technology sector, the first two years are more likely to be easier in showing delivery. It gets a lot tougher after that to maintain the same levels of top and bottom line growth, more so consistently.
If we end up with a hard Brexit they can simply move to the Republic of Ireland. Their UK staff will be able to work there, as will their EU staff. Perhaps even find a nice location just over the border so staff will be able to rent and buy in pounds but be paid in Euros.
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